A nuclear Iran is no certainty, says Meir Javedanfar. No matter how bombastic the rhetoric from Tehran has been.
The official mantra of the recent nuclear conference in Tehran was ‘Nuclear energy for all, nuclear weapons for none.’
But this wasn’t the real message that the Iranian government wanted to convey. Had the Iranian government been more honest and open about its real goals for the conference, it would have chosen the mantra ‘We crushed the opposition, our nuclear programme is going full steam ahead, no matter what the West says.’
The fact that Iran convened its own conference so soon after last week’s nuclear summit in Washington also shows that when it comes to international consensus over the Iranian nuclear programme, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei still sees the international community as weak and divided. This was evident in the repeated statements by Iran’s media that 60 countries took part in Iran’s nuclear conference, compared with the 47 who attended the US-sponsored summit.
Khamenei’s view is right, up to a point. Although it does seem that China and Russia are going to back further sanctions against Iran, we’re still not sure how solid their support will be, nor do we know how far they are willing to punish Iran in the next round of sanctions. This worries Western leaders—and especially Israel—greatly. Jerusalem wants crippling sanctions to be imposed as soon as possible, but this is unlikely to be realized soon. Although another round of sanctions are under discussion, it’s extremely unlikely that they would be strong enough to stop Iran’s nuclear programme in its tracks.
So is a nuclear Iran a foregone conclusion?
Certainly not.
Despite all the bombastic claims regarding ‘giant strides’ being made by Iran over its nuclear programme, in reality, Tehran is facing severe problems that are hampering its goals to make a nuclear bomb.
First, there’s Iran’s centrifuge production capabilities.
According to a recent study by the Institute for Science and International Security from May to November 2009, the number of centrifuges enriching Uranium at Iran’s main Natanz enrichment centre actually fell from 5000 to 3900. This is due to the outdated design of existing centrifuges, as well as sanctions that are hampering Iran’s capability to import the necessary parts, such as special magnets, which are required to produce centrifuges.
Furthermore, doubts remain regarding the quality of Iran’s newly-introduced ‘third generation centrifuges.’ According to Ali Akbar Salehi, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, these new centrifuges ‘will have a gas-separation power of nearly ten, which is six times more than the first generation of centrifuges.’
Photo Credit: Daniella Zalcman
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skeptik
If US and Israel have the right to hold nuclear arsenals, then, why Iran can not? (just give me a REAL reason)
The US is history's first nuclear terrorist (200.000 helpless civilians, Japan 1945)
Rebel vatakara
It is all wink wink and nod nod….!!!
kuldeep
Why Iran should not have nuclear technology for electricity generation? it has never attacked any country in the past itself being victim of aggression from iraq. It’s a democracy then why are sanctions imposed on iran by US and acolytes? it’s not a arab country. historically iran along with india has been a centre of learning and culture.
Teejay
American need to be just to the Muslim world, Iran is the only Muslim country progresing among the Arab Nation. They can not withstand Iran progress after 30 years of hostility. American is the only country that back Isreal over is aggression.
ashley
Iran is not an Arab country
ali
very true.
Bob
It’s very simple, if Israel can have nuclear weapons then so can Iran! The Middle East is a powder keg waiting to go off. It’s only commonsense that these religious fanatics cannot have weapons of mass destruction therefore Israel must be forced to give up their nuclear weapons otherwise its more western hypocrisy and double standards!
Devasahayam
Not so simple, Bob. Iran SIGNED the 1968 NPT, which REQUIRES it NOT to ever acquire nuclear weapons, or the wherewithal (such as equipment to enrich natural uranium, separate plutonium or produce artificial uranium); it has been in proven violation of that treaty since prior to 2004–when it was revealed that Iran had procured KRL-produced centrifuges (KRL–”Khan Research Labs”, run by that evil mohajir, erstwhile Bhopali (1, 3), scientist A.Q. Khan). It could easily have signed trade-pacts to IMPORT low-enriched uranium (or natural uranium) according to its needs.
mohajir–non-Punjabi and non-Bengali Muslims who migrated to Pakistan at Partition from areas now in India; A.Q. Khan was born in Bhopal (definitely in India, not in Punjab or Bengal but in “Bhimarou” state of Madhya Pradesh–the region-source of VAST-MAJORITY of mohajirs)the fact that he willingly worked for war-criminal-protector/promoter Z.A. Bhutto and later for openly unremorseful war-criminal Zia shows A.Q. Khan to be as despicable as these “leaders” of Pakistan
Jenny
Mr Javedanfar. Your views which almost always mirror a strong leftist worldview, often appear to be naive and spiced with wishful thinking. Oh that you are right. But if you are wrong…And if your references are suspect and the pieces of your puzzle do not actually fit, you’ll wake up one day to a nuclear Iran, and you’ll have to face yourself. And you won’t like what you’ll be staring at, I promise you.
Muhammad Talut
But whether Iran wants it or not, Iran needs nuclear weapons only for the peace of the world! “Balance of power” is again being felt “essential” in the middle east! If Iran gets some nuclear weapons the unjust western aggression and their neo-colonialistic attempts will feel some hesitations at least over those region.
hass
There is zero evidence that Iran is interested in nuclear weapons, and Iran’s nuclear program started under the Shah with the active encouragement and assistance of the United States because it makes economic sense. And ISIS’s claim that Iran can’t make centrifuges is laughable since they’ve just come out with a far more advanced model.
ali mistry
I second that.
Justin
MarkJuliansmith, please review your criticism. The article was laying out the technical obstacles to Iran becoming a nuclear power, not the ideological ones.
markjuliansmith
Other than the fact I was explicitly referring to the technical – actual acquisition of nuclear weapon components (not deemed as being for peaceful purposes) it beggars belief how you can divorce ideology from actual outcome. Ideology defines how and what people actually do. Nothing happens in a vacuum devoid of driving tenets.
markjuliansmith
I find this article very naive given the long shopping list filled, and clear intentions of filling, identified by the nuclear watchdog and the rather striking similarities between Hitler’s bellicose ranting and denials of aggression whilst building an arsenal and destabilising surrounding nations as the current Iranian elite and its leader are.
What do you want – a green glow in your window?
Please review your position.