The former head of the CIA's bin Laden unit says the US-led coalition has already lost the war in Afghanistan. A shake-up in military leadership won't change that.
Recent events surrounding Afghanistan shouldn’t confuse anyone, as the reality of the situation still lies in one simple statement: The US-NATO coalition has lost a war its political leaders never meant, or knew how, to win.
‘Winning’ in Afghanistan was never anything more than killing Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Mullah Omar, as many of their fighters and civilian supporters as possible and then getting out immediately with the full knowledge that—as Mao said long ago—insurgencies always rebuild and the process might need to be repeated.
The best and most appropriate response to al-Qaeda’s September 11 raid, then, would have been a unilateral US punitive expedition that inflicted massive death and destruction on the enemy and delivered a clear warning to Islamists not to pick fights with the United States. Indeed, many Islamists expected this response, which is why they poured vitriol on bin Laden and expected the US military to set back their movement a decade, if it did not destroy it completely.
Faced with this criticism, bin Laden simply said ‘wait,’ adding (in paraphrase) that the Americans and their allies can’t stomach casualties, that they won’t use their full military power and will unite Afghans by trying to Westernize them via popular elections, installing women’s rights, dismantling tribalism, introducing secularism and establishing NGO-backed bars and whorehouses in Kabul. Bin Laden was right; it seems he is, among other things, a keen student of the West’s past nation-building operations.
Since June 1, the parade of incompetents crossing the Afghan stage is stunning: Gen. Stanley McChrystal, US President Barack Obama, Gen. David Petraeus, Afghan President Hamid Karzai—the list is long. McChrystal, saddled with a dead-end strategy devised by David Kilcullen, John Nagl and other counterinsurgency ‘experts,’ gave access to himself and his staff to Rolling Stone, long among the most anti-military US journals.
For his trouble and indiscreet words, McChrystal was fired by Obama—who, with his senior advisers, merit all the negative things said about them—and replaced by that purveyor of military snake oil, Gen. Petraeus. Even as the transitory success of the Iraq ‘surge’ is unravelling, Petraeus takes the Afghan command saying everything is okay (within a week the Pentagon’s media machine was telling Congress and Western publics that the ‘Afghan war is on track.’)
While this has played out, Hamid Karzai reportedly met with Sirajuddin Haqqani—a major Afghan insurgent leader—and prepared to surrender under the guise of creating a coalition regime. For all his failures and fabulously corrupt relatives, Karzai can easily solve the dilemma the West can’t even frame accurately: Question: What does the Taliban and its allies want? Answer: Power. So Karzai is talking to Haqqani, and probably Taliban leaders, to see if there’s a governing arrangement that will give him a role in post-NATO Afghanistan and doesn’t lead to his execution after the last NATO trooper leaves. The chance of this is near nil, however, and so Karzai and his family will have to step up the pace of their alleged thievery and get ready for an early exit that leaves the West holding the bag.
Photo Credit: ISAF Media
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Mohdemes
If china were to occupy a part of USA and recruit people from its Jails and place them in positions of power. Do you think such people will rule with justice? No, hardened criminals will continue with crime because that is all they know.
Such is the position of Afghanistan. Karzai and his brother and other sycophants are all corrupt people. In fact most of the people who are now in karzais adminstration are either war lords or their puppets. The man appointed in Marjah as governor was in a european jail facing a long sentence.
They do not have the legitimacy or the expertise to rule. They can steal, loot, plunder and rape but they cannot rule. So the next question is why does US not appoint righteous persons to rule this country. The simple answer is why would a righteous person collaborate with a occupier.
This is the problem US faces not just in Afghanistan but whereever it trys establish a puppet government. Thus US is reduced to dealing with corrupt people whether it is Marcos of Philipines, Zardari of Pakistan, Saddam Hussain of Iraq, Noriaga of Panama, countless dictators of South America. During the Veitnam war there were a chain of puppets in south veitnam.
The example of Iraq is given as a success story. First Iraq is not over yet. Second, US had a great ally in Shia and Kurds who were victims under the US puppet Saddam. Therefore they saw their chance of getting back into power with help of US and they took it. Now whether the shia of Iraq will be on US side or Shia Iran side is yet to be established.
This war of Afghanistan was lost not because of lack of military power. But lack of righteousness. Afghans believe they have truth and justice on their side. Unless US is willing to kill every single Afghan it will never be able to subdue it.
But this is not the promise of America. This cannot be the way of men of truth. America which is not on the side of justice and virtue is not the land of the free and the home of the brave.
If the sum total of America are the wars of Viatnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Panama, Grenada, Nicragua, Cuba etc. who would want to be an american again. Yes, starving unemployed individual immigrants will continue to pour in but really would Jefferson or Washington apply?
Chris
@Ibrahim Abraham
Anyone who is away from God is a Babylonian, Stop trying to think you can identify just a few civilizations with that title, because me and you are included here. It is just as much as thinking that the physical Israel is the True Israel, the True Israel are Those that Rely 100 percent to God as in they are complete bestowers on to God though his will. What we see here in this world is a lot of nations fighting over resources and misconstrued beliefs; everyone being nothing but bigots and egoist in there own right, this is the state of the world, accept that first, and then proceed, before you think you have some wonderful answer or inside information that you thnk someone forgot, to these terrible scenarios surrounding the middle east, and all of Gods beloved creation.
sam
Brilliant, incisive, factual writing but unfortunately commonsense will not go down well in corridors of power. CIA people like Scheuer and Bob Baer have been forced to leave the agency because they are too often the harbingers of truth. Lots of people apart from the Afghan warlords are getting rich out of the mess in Afghanistan and money makes the mare go, not the truth.