Mahmoud Ahmadinejad looks to be grooming long-time ally Esfandiar Rahim Mashai to succeed him. But does he have the authority?
Is Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad really all that powerful? He certainly sees himself that way, not least because he has the backing of Iran's most influential man, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
In reality, though, Ahmadinejad's view of himself is distorted. The only reason he has maintained his position since 2005 is because of Khamenei's support and, while detractors often bash his predecessor Mohammad Khatami for being weak and toothless, anything more than a cursory comparison of the two shows the reality is quite different.
When compared one politician to another, and looking at the support each built through their own merit and standing, it’s clear that Khatami was in fact a stronger president than Ahmadinejad. After all, Khatami wasn’t there because of Khamenei's support—in fact he was there despite the relative lack of it—and managed to stay in power for eight years even though Khamenei made his life as difficult as possible.
Indeed, despite the tensions, Khatami still managed to convince Khamenei to agree to a decision as sensitive and difficult as suspending the country’s uranium enrichment programme. In contrast, it seems highly unlikely that Ahmadinejad would have the standing to convince Khamenei to change his mind on an issue anything like as important as the country’s nuclear programme.
Yet confidence is a reflection of how you see yourself, and based on that—no matter what others think of him—Ahmadinejad acts as if he wields genuine power. It’s this perception of himself that has presumably prompted him to embark on a mission that many would see as far too ambitious for a leader of his standing: grooming his successor.
The decision as to who will be Iran's next president is, of course, ultimately up to Khamenei. But this doesn’t seem to be preventing Ahmadinejad from having a go at choosing him. And who does he have his eye on to succeed him? His first choice seems to be his former first vice president, Esfandiar Rahim Mashai.
The two have a long history together. According to opposition sources, they first met in 1982, when a young Ahmadinejad was governor of the city of Khoy in West Azerbaijan Province. Around the same time, Mashai was appointed part of the team responsible for the security of the neighboring Kurdistan region by Iran's Intelligence Ministry.
The two became good friends, and when Ahmadinejad was appointed governor in Ardebil Province, he made Mashai a part of his team, along with Sadegh Mahsooli (currently Minister of Welfare and Social Security) and Mojtaba Samare Hashemi (a senior adviser). Today, they are known as members of Ahmadinejad's ‘Ardebil circle.’ To top it off, Mashai became family three years ago when the president's son married Mashai's daughter, and both are also believed to be followers of Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi and his messianic teachings.
Ahmadinejad hasn’t openly declared that he wants Mashai to replace him. But there’s plenty of tantalizing circumstantial evidence to suggest he does—something that hasn’t gone unnoticed in Iran.
In an article published on July 14, Raja News—a pro-Ahmadinejad website—accused Mashai of embarking on early electioneering. The editors of the article noted, for example, that Mashai had spoken on behalf of the president at conferences, on foreign trips and at provincial committee meetings.
Photo Credit: Uniphoto Press
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chasb_navari2007@yahoo.com
This is reality which either Ahmadinejad nor Khamenei are in power. The power belong to invisible hands which directed by outsidres and both of them and others are only puppets! This is worls policy!!!
For esample everybody belive in Iran’s sanction by US and others, but you can find Coca Cola and all Amesrican cigarates brand which sell in Iran freely without any domestic or outsaider objection!!!
This is only BUSINESS, is’nt?
a Duoist
As much as Khamenei is still in charge, he is old and ill. Whether he survives three more years is problematic. If he is disabled by ill health or should die before the 2013 presidential elections in Iran, then the IRGC will likely non-constitutionally pick/appoint the next president.
Dr. Ahmadinejad knows this. The critical political alliance to build in Iran for choosing the next president is two-fold: secure the blessing of Khamenei if his health holds, but especially get the IRGC to pre-approve a very short list of candidates.
By the way, Dr. Ahmadinejad’s circle is not “conservative.” The Greens are conservatives, loathed by Ahmadinejad’s radicals, self-identified as “principalists.” The most accurate way to identify the Ahmadinejad radicals is as ‘theofascists.’
Since the June, 2009 elections in Iran*, an evolved form of Fascism has taken control in Iran. The 2013 elections will likely consolidate the 2009 successes–particularly in the Guardian Council, now 50% principalist–or else the IRGC will decide to stop simply playing the role of Praetorians and take power by force. Either way, the theo-fascism in Iran grows stronger in 2013.
*The present governance in Iran, in June, 2009, finally achieved all eight clauses of Columbia University historian Robert Paxton’s definition of Fascism. See his “Anatomy of Fascism.”
Farzan
The above comment by Mladen seems more informed than this entire article… I think you’re on to something Mladen.
Mladen
Very nice and informed article. All in all, Ahmedinejad appears more to be exponent of military – industrial complex and nationalist then theocrat. We are talking about circle which is politically pragmatic and not particularly God fearing. Moderate tensions with USA give them more influence as they raise importance of Revolutionary Guard and domestic weapons industry. It seems that clique tries to break loose from control of clerics. Imagine Russia where weakening Central Committee still holds all nominal power but Putin and his buddies try to grab real power…
Ahmedinejad is just one (though currently most influential) member of that circle and decision on his preferred successor is most likely collective decision, to a degree. But someone like Mashai? He seems to be out of mainstream of Iranian political thought since Khomeini grabbed all power. Does it mean ideological orthodoxy is losing power?