Despite the fanfare surrounding China’s J-20 stealth prototype, the real game-changer in the Pacific will be US spy planes, argues David Axe.
Call it China’s ‘Christmas surprise.’ In a series of grainy photos given a pass by government Internet censors starting December 25, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force unveiled the country’s first stealth fighter prototype, the Chengdu J-20.
For alarmists, the Pacific balance of power seemed to shift in an instant. Armed with hundreds of fast, elusive J-20s in coming years, the PLAAF could dominate the South China Sea, reaffirming China’s rise as a global power and elbowing aside less audacious, tech-savvy rivals. ‘(The) Asia-Pacific’s political landscape will be changed as China’s military capability can win over countries in this region,’ warns Arthur Ding, an analyst based in Taiwan.
In truth, the J-20’s appearance raises more questions than it answers. For a start, it’s unclear what the new fighter is for, how well it might perform, and how easily Beijing might transition the prototype to a mass-produced design.
Still, there’s no arguing with the symbolic power of the J-20’s debut. If nothing else, the first bow of the plane from Chengdu made a statement: The Chinese Communist Party is serious about air power.
That the sleek new fighter might represent the major symbol of a propaganda campaign should come as no surprise. Parades, military exercises and weapons tests represent ‘an effort to remind domestic audiences of the sophistication of the weaponry of the state,’ says US author Jeffrey Wasserstrom, in his book China in the 21st Century. The same principle applies to foreign audiences of China’s elaborate military theatre.
The same doesn’t apply to the country that is arguably China’s greatest strategic rival. With only a few exceptions, the United States exposes its major aerospace developments early, frequently and usually matter-of-factly. The absence of dramatic accoutrement can obscure the potentially profound effects of a new aircraft as much as the presence of drama can exaggerate a plane’s impact on strategy.
Drone Debut
Case in point: in September, the US Air Force introduced an aircraft to one of its major Pacific outposts that will weigh more heavily—and immediately—on the regional balance of power than the J-20 probably ever will. On September 20, the Air Force’s 36th Wing, based in Guam, received the first of three RQ-4B Global Hawk spy drones. The wing marked the occasion with a brief, public ceremony and a press release with photos.
The drone’s Pacific debut was, frankly, boring. But the tedium belied a profound strategic shift. Together, the three Guam-based RQ-4s, plus later reinforcements, will be capable of maintaining non-stop surveillance of vast swaths of the Pacific tens of thousands of miles in area, using a wide range of sensors.
Spy aircraft are nothing new, but spy aircraft of this calibre are new. Being pilotless, the RQ-4 and other drones aren’t limited by a human being’s need to sleep, eat and eliminate, nor by the human body’s physiological limits or the space that it occupies. In short, drones can stay in the air as long as their airframes and fuel supplies allow. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, or UAVs ‘have an advantage of providing persistence,’ US Air Force Lt. Gen. Dave Deptula explains. This persistence means a drone is better able to spot targets and guide in attackers, shrinking what Deptula calls the ‘intelligence-surveillance-reconnaissance-strike equation’ to ‘a matter of single-digit minutes.’
Reddit
Digg
StumbleUpon
Delicious
Technorati
Yahoo
Google
Plurk
Chinaman
So there is going to be war between the US and China. That is why you hope for the best and prepare for the worst.The US carriers are a threat to China’s security. That is why the PLA is developing the countermeasures for defence,not attack.The US is one miilion miles from China so why must it project its power right at Chin’s door step. If the Chinese navy with ten battle ships loiter off Californai,what would the US?Wish the Chinese good luck and hope you come with peaceful intentions.
The world is an unsafe village and as typical in any village,you will have bullies. Having been bullied by the west and Japan ,is it any surprising the the Chinese are building up their military to prevent future coercion or intimidation.
The US is saying the PLA buildup is destabilising and a threat to the peace in Asia. This is bull shit. Anyone who believes this is naive or daft an doesn’t know the US is the greatest threat to peace inthe world.The US doesn’t want China to be able to dend itself so that it can be easy for them like in Iraq and afghanistan . In Vietnam US bases were not subject to attack. Things will be different in a war with China. Yes I know China will be pulverise but at great cost to the US.And the Americans are bothered.
peace_lover
With so many war mongers and china bashers in the West, it is inevitable that there will be a war between USA and China one day. When it happens, it will be the USA attacking China and not vice versa. China is NOT the villian. USA is. USA will be the aggressor in that war.
USA will attack China simply because it cannot accept being overtaken by China.
Of course, it will come up with very high sounding reasons like protecting smaller countries “bullied” by China, e.g. Vietnam, Taiwan, Philippines, etc., or spreading democracy in China, etc. But in actuality, the USA will attack China for its own self-interests (just like when it attacked Iraq).
—
the next big war in asia won’t be between arch enemies Japan and China — because Japan is a democracy and the government cannot go to war so easily — whereas Vietnam is still an authoritarian communist country.
but any war between Vietnam and China will actually be a proxy war between USA and China. USA will not dare to take on China directly now but it will support Vietnam against China. Vietnam are USA are best of buddies now — strange considering how many US servicemen died in the hands of the Viet congs only 50 years ago.
with so many china bashers like yourself in the USA, a military conflict between USA and China will be inevitable. let’s just hope that USA leaders have the good sense not to fight China directly — because that would mean Nuclear World War.
china has Osama Bin Laden to thank for the relative good relationship it has with the USA. After Bush became president and before Sep 11, the USA was trying to provoke or test China — first by bombing the Chinese embassy in Europe and then shooting down a Chinese fighter plane in the South China Sea. It was obvious that Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld were war wongers and wanted to provoke China. Donald Rumsfeld recently even admitted that he tried to dissuade Bush from apologizing to China for bombing the Chinese embassy. Fortunately, Bush was smart enough for once not to listen to him.
Until today, they still have not come clean on what the hell they were trying to do bombing the Chinese embassy for no good reason (the espionage reason is lame because embassies all over the world carry out intelligence work at the time). The shooting down of the Chinese fighter plane could just be a mistake however – a trigger happy America fighter pilot.
The USA will one day attack China and not vice versa. USA will be the aggressor and not China — and it will be because there are so many war mongers [edited]. A war with China will be the last war for the USA.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/MF24Ad01.html
Jamie
A big thank you to “peace-lover” for stopping by, always good to get the info straight from the Chinese’s government’s mouth. I will of course put your conspiracy theory addled rant down to a lack of free internet access and a human rights record that makes Gaddafi look like a pretty reasonable guy. I am sure it would wreck my head as well.
James
Actually, I found peace_lovers exposition rather thoughtful, considering I read from around two dozen newspapers and visit a handful of news outlets such as Reuters and The Christian Science Monitor (which, by the way, has NO axe to grind, nor advertisers to assuage, thus freeing it to report the facts, unlike the dominant news/propaganda organs in the U.S.A.). Peace_lover does speculate about possible outcomes to various interactions between America and China and, given that those speculations are within the realm of possibility, I would hardly rush to label them “conspiracy addled”.
No one familiar with the histories of the two countries could fail to be amazed and amused at their dissimilarities in bellicosity. While China has indeed fought what could be charitably considered wars, these wars were, for the most part, fought over the finer points of territorial demarcations. These manifold rubbing points with Russia, India, Japan, Vietnam and Myanmar, to name the most salient are completely unknown to the average Americano, who only has two borders to worry about and one of them holds back hoards of like-minded English speakers. Hardly analogous to the situation faced by China. Further, China has a demonstrated history of keeping to itself as much as possible, showing little interest in expanding its domain for a couple of millennia, at least. Contrast that with America, which has been on a hair trigger since the revolution which established the union. In fact, the U.S. has been at war with some country or other for close to two hundred of its two hundred thirty plus year history. Never mind that the national anthem practically enshrines violence as the principal means of solving disputes.
That China could become more imperial is beyond dispute. But its track record thus far indicates a preference for the one thing Chinese excell at: negotiation and compromise. Is it any wonder the Chinese have made such inroads into Africa, simultaneously exploiting resources heretofore considered beneath notice by the U.S.-excluding oil from Nigeria and a couple of other producers? If America could feel shame at being one-upped at an exercise so simple in its organization and execution, I’m sure it would, but I see no signs of it.
The upshot of my diatribe, should my point be lost to hyper-propagandized contributors to this site miss it, is that there are laymen out here who see more clearly, at times, than folks who merely tune in to one channel.
Thank you, peace_lover, for a thought-provoking contribution.
apple
China made inroads to Africa due to its corporations being able to deal with corrupt officials and companies. American companies have no such freedom. James I would suggest you read some geopolitics instead of popular news stories.
AK
Why go to war when things can be accomplished without firing a single bullet. Pakistan military backed regime (and its child the Taliban), the real terror central is propped up by PRC, just to bleed the US economically. Just like Ron Paul says, all the bases should be closed in foreign countries in phases and all the wars or compromises should be left to regional players to deal with. The Empire must withdraw, stop its over stretch and become a strong republic. To defeat PR of China, all is needed is to pass a law that says that any country that is not a multi-party democracy or have a true representative government should loose all privilege to US market access. EU should follow suit together with other allies in G20, including Japan, Korea, India, Brazil and the rest. Any country that does not follow this conditional market-access law, should be sanctioned and put under the same law. Finally this law should be enshrined in WTO. Then this law should be applied to the last remaining totalitarian regimes starting with PRC, North Korea, Burma and the Tin Pots in Mid-east, who seems to be on their way to be driven out by people power. This law will give a long needed boost to people power where the regimes are way too powerful and entrenched.
The hypocrisy of the world capitalist regime that preaches about democracy and human-rights, but uses and rewards totalitarian brutal repressive regimes, in the name of development, but for the real reason of lining corporate shareholder pockets, must come to an end.
Daksha Nyshadham
@John Chan speaking truth is not bad mouthing China. You need to understand China is not god and need retrospective and introspection. I fully agree China is trying destroying all the civilized and Democratic Countries, such as, USA, Western Europe, India, South Korea, Japan, Indonesia and Australia. China is cozying with all the rogue and Failed Nations. Only known rogue and failed Nation, that is, Pakistan is China’s all weather friend. China gave nuclear bomb to Pakistan to control and destroy India. China gave Nuclear Bomb to North Korea to create problem for USA, Japan and South Korea. Pakistan and North Korea are problem Nation created by China. None of the Chinese weapons were nether independently assessed nor did tested in the battle. Pakistan happens to be only rogue nations which has Chinese weapons and they never used in any war. Pakistan buys Chinese weapons out of political obligation. All the civilized countries and Democratic countries should come together and put twenty five percent duties on all Chinese goods till they change behavior. Every year China is looking for failed nation’s index to add more friends into their payroll. All the indications show that China is supplying Nuclear weapon technology to Bangladesh. China is in process of supplying nuclear device to Myanmar. In future China and its allies, that is, Rogue and Failed Nations will form an alliance like NATO or Warsaw Pact to fight against all the democratic countries. China will be the unquestionable leader for totally failed and Rogue Nations Organization (TFRO) in the lines of NATO. Soon Somalia and Sudan will join the ranks of TFRO and China will invite with open hands. Mr. John Chan you should be proud of China becoming Super Power but also Rogue Super Power. All the major terrorist organizations and Insurgencies used Chinese make Small weapons. All the Islamic terror groups use Chinese Make AK47s and Grenades supplied by NORRINCO. Terrorist Organizations can give better assessment of Chinese weapons. Eventually China will supply their drones to Terrorist Organizations. All the readers should notice CHINA never aggressively condemned September 11, 2001 incidents. They gave a general statement regarding terrorism. Mr. John Chan, it is high time China should join comity of Nations and not to form alliance with Totally Failed and Rogue Nations Organization. China sells less than ten percent of their exports to rogue and failed nations. If any calamity occurs in China none of the Chinese friends will be of any use.