Obama claimed that the light of peace could be seen in Afghanistan. But conflicting agendas among the main players leaves its future uncertain.
In his much-anticipated announcement of the drawdown of troops from Afghanistan, US President Barack Obama declared that the United States will withdraw 33,000 troops from Afghanistan by September 2012. Striking a confident tone, he assured his nation that the drawdown of troops was being undertaken from a ‘position of strength.’ Under his assessment, ‘the tide of war is receding…in Afghanistan, the light of a secure peace can be seen in the distance.’
The decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan is certainly going to be game changer. But will it lead to greater or less stability in Afghanistan?
Certainly, the early indications are that the Taliban might have been emboldened by Obama’s announcement. They’ve stepped up their activity, and the attack on the fortified Intercontinental hotel in Kabul this week is a bad omen. Such a projection of resilience is in stark contrast with the desperate lack of governance in Afghanistan, combined with lax security, rampant corruption, high unemployment, weak institutions and rising civilian casualties from Western air attacks.
The problems are compounded by the fact that Afghanistan, Pakistan and the United States – the three key players in this war – have divergent views and interests over counterinsurgency operations and reconciliation with the Taliban. And, with the three likely to pursue different agendas as the US troop drawdown begins, expect them to move to try to maximize their own gains in the post-withdrawal phase.
Already, the United States is engaged in secretive talks with the Taliban, with an eye on being able to hasten its drawdown. US hopes lay in putting together a political arrangement that includes the Taliban, and to this end it has already softened its position, helping to ensure that the Taliban are separated from al-Qaeda operatives on the list of entities under UN sanctions. The idea here is to induce the Taliban into breaking its links with al-Qaeda, renounce violence and recognize the Afghan constitution as part of any talks.
Yet the US efforts to talk directly with the Taliban have upset the Pakistanis, and there seems a genuine possibility that, as in the past, Pakistan will try to scuttle US discussions with the Taliban. The United States would therefore do well to heed the words of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, who said, ‘Nothing will happen without us, because we are part of the solution.’
Why? Because Pakistan regards Afghanistan as a rearguard, and it sees US efforts as being at odds with its own interests.
The US raid that killed Osama Bin Laden, who was hiding deep within Pakistan, has seriously strained US-Pakistan relations. The Pakistani Army has been publicly criticized for having failed to defend the country’s sovereignty, and Pakistan has forced the United States to withdraw 120 of its operatives, including those who were providing training for the Frontier Corps.
Photo Credit: US Army
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Frank
During the WWI and WWII, whenever westerners withdraw, they left Indian solders behind to slow the enemy down.
This time, Americans can do the same.
Taliban do not like Indians. So, Americans should find them another target to keep them busy.
India is a perfect alternative target for Taliban.
neel123
@ Frank,
India has been a target of Pakistani army supported Islamic terrorists from 1989, the Americans have known them only after 9/11. India has survived and learned to deal with these Islamic terrorists.
This however will not change the fortunes of either the Americans or the British, as these Taliban elements know that the Christian western powers are the stumbling block on their way to Islamic Caliphate.
Rehmat
Israel began sleeping with India during Andera Gandhi’s rule. Mossad have fostered a love-affair with Indian RAW. Both of these organizations were behind Mumbai terrorism in 2008 and 2011.
neel123
American plans for withdrawal from the AfPak WOT is a part of well thought out plans, even the apparent war fatigue and the impression that the Americans did their best before drawing down of troops is also a well choreographed.
The actual aim behind all these is to push the Pakistani Army to their limits and then leave the region destabilized. The Pakistani army has drawn the line with the Americans which they would not push further, hence the decision to draw down. The Americans need Pakistan as much as Pakistan needs the Americans, a fact of life which is here to stay, expressed in so many words by the Americans including the just retired Robert Gates.
Message for India, Pakistan is and will continue to be the American Trojan horse in the region ……… beware of the optics and never let your guard down …… !
John
I am not sure anyone cares actually.
They just want the US troops to go home, so if later the afghans butcher each other, they will just say well its not our problem.
Even the Afghan leadership acts like they have a get out of jail free card, so if the taliban start killing thier people, they will just run away again and complain from a distance.
Maybe the rest of the world should tell all afghans that if they give up the chance for peace and if the leaders of afghanistan don’t create a good place then they broke it they bought it syndrome. Maybe Karzai would work harder for the people of Afghanistan if no one would take him if he screwed it up.
So maybe push them to realise thier passports ended the day Afghanistan ends and they would stay the course longer. Plus, the troops may leave, but if it is still a war between the Northern Alliance and the Taliban, then the US should support the NA with money and weapons until the war ends even if it takes 100 years.