Beijing is interested in more than just energy and fishery resources. The area is also integral to its nuclear submarine strategy.
In an effort to underscore its importance to Asia, geostrategist Nicholas Spykman once described it as the ‘Asiatic Mediterranean.’ More recently, it has been dubbed the ‘Chinese Caribbean.’ And, just as Rome and the United States have sought control over the Mediterranean and Caribbean, China now seeks dominance over the South China Sea.
It’s clear that China’s claims and recent assertiveness have increased tensions in this key body of water. Yet while most attention has focused on Beijing’s appetite for fishery and energy resources, from a submariner’s perspective, the semi-closed sea is integral to China’s nuclear strategy. And without understanding the nuclear dimension of the South China Sea disputes, China’s maritime expansion makes little sense.
Possessing a credible sea-based nuclear deterrent is a priority for China's military strategy. China’s single Type 092, or Xia-class, nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, equipped with short-range JL-1 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), has never conducted a deterrent patrol from the Bohai Sea since its introduction in the 1980s. However, China is on the verge of acquiring credible second-strike capabilities with the anticipated introduction of JL-2 SLBMs (with an estimated range of 8,000 kilometres) coupled with DF-31 and DF-31A road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). In addition, China plans to introduce up to five Type 094, or Jin-class, SSBNs outfitted with the JL-2 missiles, while constructing an underwater submarine base on Hainan Island in the South China Sea.
It’s clear, then, that China is making every effort to keep the South China Sea off limits, just as the Soviet Union did in the Sea of Okhotsk during the Cold War. Back then, the Soviet Union turned to SSBNs as insurance against US capabilities to destroy land-based ICBMs. The need to secure its insurance force from attacks, and the need for effective command and control, meant that Soviet SSBNs had to be deployed close to home, with longer-range missiles to be used to strike the continental United States. In addition to the Barents Sea, Moscow prioritized making the Sea of Okhotsk a safe haven for SSBNs by improving the physical defences of the Kuril Islands and reinforcing the Pacific Fleet based at Vladivostok. The Soviet Pacific Fleet deployed 100 submarines, combined with 140 surface warships, including a Kiev-class light aircraft carrier, to defend its insurance force in the Sea of Okhotsk.
Likewise, China needs to secure its forces in the South China Sea and modify its maritime strategy and doctrine accordingly. Currently, the primary wartime missions of the People’s Liberation Army Navy are: 1) securing sea approaches to Taiwan; 2) conducting operations in the western Pacific to deny enemy forces freedom of action; 3) protecting Chinese sea lines of communication; and 4) interdicting enemy lines of communication. With the introduction of the Type 094, protecting Chinese SSBNs will become another primary mission, and this mission will require China to kill enemy strategic antisubmarine forces and end the resistance of other claimants in the South China Sea. Chinese anti-access/area-denial capabilities, especially quieter nuclear-powered attack submarines, can be used to counter enemy forward antisubmarine warfare operations. China’s aircraft carriers, when operational, will be deployed in the South China Sea to silence the neighbouring claimants.
This strategy dates back almost two decades, to a time when China began encircling the South China Sea to fill the power vacuum created by the withdrawal of US forces from the Philippines in 1991. China reasserted ‘historical’ claims over all the islets, including the Paracel and Spratly archipelagos, and 80 percent of the 3.5 million km2 body of water along the nine-dotted U-shaped line, despite having no international legal ground to do so. Those islets can be used as air and sea bases for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance activities, and as base points for claiming the deeper part of the South China Sea for PLAN ballistic missile submarines and other vessels. China also interprets the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) in an arbitrary manner and doesn’t accept military activities by foreign vessels and overflight in its waters.
Yet China's efforts to dominate the South China Sea face significant challenges. Chinese assertiveness hasn’t only inflamed hostilities from other claimants, but has also raised concerns from seafaring nations such as the United States, Japan, Australia, and India. After all, the South China Sea is a recognized international waterway, unlike the Sea of Okhotsk. In addition, since the JL-2 missiles can’t reach Los Angeles from the South China Sea, Type 094 submarines need to enter the Philippine Sea, where the US Navy and Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force conduct intense anti-submarine warfare operations.
Photo Credit: US Navy
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tuusacvodo
China’s navy is pirates. they have been robbing, torturing and asking for ransoms and even killing vietnamese fishermen who have been fishing in spratly and Paracel islands for hundreds of years. these areas have been proved to be vietnam sea territories since 15 century by Portogee, France and so… it is really badluck for any country has border with china who never stop wishing expand their border by making dirty strategies. NOT BEWARE OF DOG BUT CHINA.
Sinodefender
Where is your proof that the Chinese torture random Vietnamese fisherman? If the Paracel islands were proven by the West that they belonged to Vietnam why did the Vietnamese expel the French?
bose
Sinofender,
I like your patriotism, but you should know what is right and what is wrong.
Here is the proof in respond to your question:
http://sglinks.com/pages/1090695-vietnam-chinese-soldiers-attack-fishermen
Sinodefender
Punching and attacking intruders is not torture… So if a burglar came to my house and I knock him out do I conduct torture? French Indochina stole the land from the Qing so Vietnam’s claims are illegal then. The Japanese who invaded the islands returned them to the R.O.C.
Long
Sindodefender,
you were so confident that Bose could not provide evidence that the Chinese navy beat up the Vietnamese fishermen…then when Bose gave you the link, you became defensive…you really need to learn how to debate….the link that Bose provided is nothing…if you Google for the phrase “Chinese nany shot death Vietnamese fishermen”, you’ll find reports about your Chinese navy brutally shot 8 fishermen to death on Jan 8 2005.
Of course, you’ll say it’s ok to shoot death the intruders…but let me remind you of the incident that happened last year: the Chinese fishermen were the intruders who violated Japanese sea; not only that, the Chinese fishermen also intentionally hit the Japanese coast guard vessels…now, what would you react if the Japanese officials decided to shoot death your countrymen? Would it be ok for the owner to shoot at the intruder if the intruder is Chinese?
Sinodefender
Whats the difference between brutally shooting someone and nicely shooting someone? They were trespassing so they deserved to die. Senkaku or Diaoyutai was Chinese to begin with it was only relinquished to the Japanese by the treaty of Shimonseki, so it is China’s land to begin with. Japanese sunk Lien Ho from Taiwan and said it was false is that not an act of aggression? They eventually had to pay US$311,000 because a video proved that the Japanese sunk it.
Vietnamers
To yang zi:
Chinese people are the best in making fake things on the world and we all do not believe into your people.
I saw your people making fake ancient artifacts and put into the East Sea (not South China Sea as you said) and also somewhere in the Vietnam and China border.
I was in the border and saw your people came inside Vietnamese territory to grow plants at night and in the day time our people had to remove the plants your people grown. And also I saw your people removed the border columns and shifted them inside the Vietnam land. It had happen for 5-6 years continuously until we set up the border columns and border aggrement.
I also learnt many bad things that your people did to our people: China invaded Vietnam in 1979 and killed many Vietnamese people (including my colleagues and relatives) after your army lost in the fight inside Vietnam territory.
After the war, your army often used missiles and canon to fire into our land and kill our people. Your people bought young corn silk (farmer did not have harvest), buffalo horns, horse and buffalo hoofs (farmers had no animals to cultivate crops)… to make our farmers do not have crop harvest and production leading to hungry and malnutrition.
In conclusion, your China people (most not all) are cruel and crafty from your history and at present. Live has cause and effect. God will punish China very soon.
Sinodefender
For all I know you could be spouting propaganda and Vietnamese could be doing encroaching China’s territory. You said most Chinese are cruel for border actions yet I doubt most people in China live right next to Vietnam. Yes the Chinese are pragmatic what is the problem. Without proof you cannot reinforce any of your points and you just seemed like propaganda machine. Bringing how a deity will punish China is just wrong, religion does is not justification to do wrongs to others.
Tzeng
@Federalist: I really don’t know why a country with 5000 years of culture like China can produce such a dirty, hatred, selfish, evil people like I see from China today? It seems that Chinese people teaches Chinese people to tell lie, how to turn white into black, take advantages of others country but don’t want to pay back, use forces and many others dirty ways to threaten the weaker, flatter the stronger to earn for herself.
Truly speaking, that is the image of China in my thinking. (I don’t see those features when I came to Singapore, Taiwan, some in Hongkong, and very a few from mainland China. Chinese people from Singapore, Taiwan is totally different.)
QX
China can only fool itself on the Southeast Asia Sea issue. It cannot fool the civilized world (and, of course, author Tetsuo Kotani too).
Sinodefender
Who is the civilized world, not China right?
bose
to Sinodefender
Check out your Chinese civilization:
Chinese man beating pregnant wife: http://cdn.mediatakeout.com/38081/caught_on_tape_chinese_man_brutally_beats_up_pregnant_woman____she_was_a_cashier____and_didnt_bring_back_his_change_quickly_enough_warning_-_extreme_violence.html
Chinese eating human babies to enhance sexual potency, get more concubines:
http://perpustakaan.blogspot.com/2009/10/chinese-eat-baby-soup-for-sex.html
Chinese fake pork in buns using cartonboards
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrC4e3Fn-LQ
Chinese navy ship executed Vietnamese service men who has no means to defend: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFucSXHoWPA
Your civilization sucks, Chinese are being despite everywhere you go, in France people complained the noisy language, spitting on the streets, no social etiquette, dirty, mess up where ever Chinese tourist go. Right here in the US, Chinese tourists never return home, after arriving here, they sneak around in New York take advantage of loopholes in the immigration regulations. Viva “Chinese civilization”!!!
Federalist
Really? A few bad things that have happened equal a bad culture? Give me a break! By your standards, all cultures are horrible. Have you even studied Chinese culture? Have you read any of the Four Books and Five Classics? Have you opened up Romance of the Three Kingdoms and lost yourself in the conflict of the Three Kingdoms Period? Have you studied China’s continuous 5000 year history? Have you seen a Daoist temple or Buddhist pagoda? Have you seen a picture of the Forbidden City? Have you had dim sum filled with various meats and a hot cup of tea? Have you seen a piece of Chinese artwork and its unique style? Have you seen the beauty of Chinese calligraphy?
I could go on and on on the beauties of Chinese culture.
ALL cultures have bad parts in their histories, but they do not allow those events to define them.
Sinodefender
I’m pretty sure I can find data about human abuses on every single country… You have singled out China and try to confuse others that human abuses are the norm in China. Chinese eating babies is a hoax, there is no definite proof. South Korea doesn’t like China so they like to fabricate lies to make Chinese seem sub-human. The pork bun incident was proven false, it was actually Chinese media company that tried to get attention and they were subsequently punished by Chinese government. There are fake food in the rest of the world too. Vietnamese were executed because they were trespassing doesn’t matter if they are armed or not. My civilization sucks care to prove it? Confucianism impacted East Asia and taught morals to the people. Numerous inventions that China invented impacted the world, ever heard of paper, gunpowder, compass, printing. I could list more if you wish. Proof that Chinese are uncouth and places Chinese go become messy, it all depends on the person… Chinese don’t care about what the French think of them… There are more Latin Americans illegally immigrating into U.S. Yes,Chinese civilization is as superior as all other culutures.
Tzeng
@Federalist: I really don’t know why a country with 5000 years of culture like China can produce such a dirty, hatred, selfish, evil people like I see from China today? It seems that Chinese people teaches Chinese people to tell lie, how to turn white into black, take advantages of others country but don’t want to pay back, use forces and many others dirty ways to threaten the weaker, flatter the stronger to earn for herself.
Truly speaking, that is the image of China in my thinking. (I don’t see those features when I came to Singapore, Taiwan, some in Hongkong, and very a few from mainland China. Chinese people from Singapore, Taiwan is totally different.)
observer
What are outsiders to think of a government that attempts to control the global conversation by hiring an army of internet writers to comment on every article pertaining to their county?
You will not be trusted until transparency and free press are allowed and the level of propaganda out of your government is racheted down.
Granted, many governments attempt to manipulate the media through various means, but the degree to which you guys engage in this -is comical.
Be honest. Get along with your neighbors. Try to serve mankind, rather than dominate the globe.
Sinodefender
How is this dominating the globe… The U.S. has no business in the South China Sea and those islands belong to China.
a_canadian_observer
@Sinodefender: As a US citizen, you should be tried for treason.
Sinodefender
I never said nuke America and there is freedom of speech…
vince
a barbaric nation will always be one…
yang zi
It is fine to come up with all the strategic reasons; the real reason is emotional and historical. South China Sea is long the domain of Chinese dynasties; those islands are ancestry territory if you will. China will never give them up.
Long
Really? South China sea has been China’s territory? According to this map which was taken from the book “Vietnam: A country study” from the US congress library, southern China and Hainam island used to belong to Vietnam 911 BC. Then, please explain to me how in the world East Sea (you call it south China Sea) belong to China historically?
http://www.cartoko.com/content/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Vietnam_1989_p010_CtryStudy.jpg
John Chan
@Long:
In the map you provided, there is a place call Nam Viet that is not current Vietnam, at the same time the map does not indicate ownership of South China Sea, so your attempt to link from an irrelevant ancient nation (which is not current Vietnam) to China’s ownership of SCS is specious and unsubstantiatable.
Nam Viet was part of China for very long time, north Vietnam was prefectures of China, China has more historical right to claim north Vietnam than Vietnam has the right to claim SCS, shall China claim the right to reintegrate north Vietnam now before Vietnam continues to run wild and out of control? And let Khmer to claim south Vietnam back?
Chan
The book, from which the map is shown, is called “Vietnam: a country study”. In that book, the shaded area which labeled Nam Viet, was described as the territory of the Vietnamese people.
Of course, as a Chinese, you would claim that Nam Viet is not Viet nam and that Vietnamese people is a ethnic group of Han. Sorry, if I have to choose between Chinese history books and the US history book, I’ll have to go with the US. Simple reason: I think the book written by the US author is more accurate and subjective than the Chinese’s one. You, Chinese people, always made up things (i.e, lies and fake documents) for your own benefits.
Long
Of course, Nam Viet is not the current Vietnam because you Chinese aggressor, robbed those land from the Vietnamese people and pushed them southward. My point is that, if those shaded used to belong the Vietnam, then East Sea (you called it South China Sea) must historically belong to Vietnam because China, at that time according to the provided map, was no where near the disputed sea.
The problem I have with China’s arguments on the East is that the Chinese cited your ancient (fake) history books to support your claim. You don’t play by current international laws. But then when I put up this map (which is 1000 years older than the Chinese’s books), then you say that this map is not relevant. Why are only your fake documents are relevant while a third party (whose view about this is more subjective) are not?
Sinodender
You, Vietnamese people, always made up things (i.e, lies and fake documents) for your own benefits. Please don’t use arguments that slander others.
yang zi
@Long, thanks for the map, i never seen it. it clearly shows nam viet is one of Chinese kingdoms. The people in part of Guangdong and Hainan island have the same heritage as northern Vietnamese. I strongly suggest northern part of Vietnam come back to China. we are brothers.
Long
Please take some time to read that book before making those idiotic comments. Both you and me and the whole world knows that China has engulfed many smaller countries throughout its history. China has robbed lands from Vietnamese, Korean, Mongolian, Tibetian, Indian…and currently, China is trying to robbed the sea and islands from the ASEAN countries…
I think you only have tofu in your head and so you distort the history. Clearly, the map and the book show two different countries China and Nam Viet…but your tofu head has to twist it and makes you believe that Nam Viet was part of China…you see your Chinese mentality? You claim that East sea belongs to China historically (based on your fake history)…then when someone shows you the more reliable historical facts, you would not accept it…you bend the truth….
long
Sure, the Khmer can get south vietnam back if China returns Quang dong, quang tay and hainam island to vietnam.
Also, to be fair, China should return tibet to tibetians, inner mongolia to mongolia, Kashmir to India..that would make it far…would not you agree Chan?
Sinodender
Ancient Bai yue was a umbrella term used by the Han to label “southern barbarians” so I doubt modern Vietnamese are the direct descendants of all those ethnic groups. Ask modern day Han Chinese who live in these provinces who they are related to Han or Vietnamese, most Cantonese deny being related so you Pan-Yue kingdom is not going to appear anytime soon. Tibet was part of China during the Tang and the Qing. Inner Mongolians was no mans land if history so Han Chinese settled there ever since the Qin and also the Mongolians weren’t there first they have the right to live their as they wish. Some parts of Tibet are parts of Kashmir also its is also disputed with Pakistanis so I see no reason for China to give up any of its sovereignty.
a_canadian_observer
@Sinodefender: contrary to your believe, I’ve spoken to many of my Cantonese speaking friends, and they did accept that they came from Bai Yuehs. But if we go to china and ask, they may not dare to give the true answer for fear of getting a death sentence.
long
Sinodefender,
You stole my words and changed it to say “Vietnamese people make up fake documents for my own benefits”. First of all, if you calm down and take a moment to think, you’ll realize that you just made another nonsense argument: the map I posted was not created by the Vietnamese. The map was taken from a USA congress library; it was written by the US.
I haven’t provided any documents from the Vietnamese side…I havent done so because I believe the writing of the third party is more subjective than the two involved in a dispute. Chinese are famous for making fake things…sure, Vietnamese people might do the same thing…that is why I think the facts from a third party is more creditable and reliable…
You did not know how to respond to the map that I provided logically…that was why you responded by stealing my words and revised it…that showed you don’t know how to debate…or maybe, more accurately, you do not have any real facts to back up your claim that Vietnam and therefore the East sea belongs to China…you disappointed me…that is exactly why China refused the Phillipines’ suggestion of bringing the matter to the UN court…China has no legal ground for its claim and is afraid it will loose in court…
Sinodefender
@ Canadian observer I also asked Cantonese in China they agree with Han Chinese ancestors AND Bai yue ancestors never said they have no blood from the Bai yue… My Hakka ancestors from Guangdong viewed themselves as Han and not Bai yue it is what you choose to be. I have no doubt I have Bai yue blood but to say I am only Bai yue is a lie. Modern day Cantonese in China had ancestors that fled from Northern China from marauding nomads is that hard to accept? Besides some Cantonese view themselves as Tang people not Bai yue people…
@ Long that was sarcasm, don’t lecture others for using statements that is easily opinion. A third party that also hates China, how is that helpful at all? If you want evidence I will provide them just ask, instead of saying about how Chinese are liers and Vietnamese are saints… No China does not want to contest the U.N. because it is U.S. lackey ever heard of the Korean War?
Long here is my evidence: Why would there be Chinese relics and remains if Chinese fishermen did not live or at least use it as a sanctuary? Why did the Song bother to use navy to guard it if Chinese settlers did not live there( Wujing Zongyao)? Yuan shi records of how Yuan dynasty sent Guo Shoujing to observe the islands and how they put it in there territories. The Paracel Islands was included in the Qiongzhou prefecture of Hainan.The Sino-French treaty of 1887 stated that the Qing owned everything east if the Sino-Tonkin delimitation line which included those islands. French troops invaded the islands when China became a democracy July 3, 1938. Even the Japanese viewed the islands as China’s so they disregarded French claims and invaded it. After WW2 ended Japan ceded those islands to to ROC
Vietnamese claims date only as far back as the 15th century while China’s claims were made during the Tang. Lê Thánh Tông sent fishermen to gather resources around it I see that hardly as sovereignty. Thiên Nam Tứ Chí Lộ Đồ, was made by Trịnh Căn and is the oldest document, which dates 1680-1705 but it uses earlier material dating to Lê Thánh Tông reign. French Indochina based its false claims of sovereignty from Emperor Gia Long which his reign is 1802-1820. When Vietnam was divided in two Northern Vietnam and Southern Vietnam, north said the islands were Chinese and south said it was Vietnamese. Phạm Văn Đồng sent a letter to Zhou Enlai that agreed with China’s 12 nautical mile principal and the Communists won so they should agree to their letter. Why do Vietnamese base there claims on the original robbers French?
John Chan
@a_canadian_observer:
At least Vietnamese are arguing based on the Chinese facts, but you are simply fabricating facts out of thin air. There will be brawl the minute you talk to any Cantonese-speaking people with your kind of anti-China bigotry.
Bose
The way you reason, then the whole world would belong to China since thousand years later you say archilogists discovered Chinese discovered America, Europe, Africa and so on.
Stupid
John Chan
China has historical evidence to support its ownership over the islands in South China Sea delineated by the nine dashed lines. Vietnam and Philippines are refusing to go to ICJ to prove their cases because they are squatters and trespassers in the Chinese territories in the SCS.
Vietnamese and Filipino squatters and trespassers in the Chinese territories in the SCS can either leave by themselves or be evicted by China Marine Enforcement units.
bose
A few hundred years latter you will say the same to us, that there is historical evidence and artifacts prove that San Francisco, Los Angeles belong to China because Chinese lived there long time ago. So, the USA must return San Francisco and Los Angeles to China as well as the ocean along these areas?
ozivan
@bose. The heck with China. Just ignore them.!! Bose, you could or should just ask the US to return California state to Mexico. This will shut up the Chinese..hehe
Long
Chan,
you are bending the truth again…just last week, the Phillipines asked, but China refused, to bring the dispute to UN court…now you are bending the truth and said VN and Phillipines refused…get your facts straight
Aogin
Philippines is endorsing the case to ICJ…..Let’s see who will win….
Cyrus
Which proves he is a Government rat. He will say anything and his so Called Chinese history is as reliable as he is.
YellaBelly
Rename it from South China Sea to South Sea!!!
Problem solved!!!
Frank
Yellow belle:
It is called South Sea in Chinese.
East China Sea is also called East Sea in Chinese.
By the way, Vietnamese are also yellow.
Joan
Right. Needless to say the emotion as well as the historical evidences from Chinese are as fake as their goods and products!
Sinodefender
It seems like anything the Chinese argue is fake and conjured on the whim then who is right?
a_canadian_observer
@Sinodefender: Congratulations! You’ve finally got it.
John Chan
It is western world’s undivided faith and believe that only documents written in the West contain truth, anything from China is propaganda.
The rational of their specious assertion is that the western documents were publicly debated, even though all the debates were held in the same bias and prejudice domain. Anything outside their set domain must be fake and propaganda.
Sinodender
That was sarcasm and just proved how heavily biased you are.
Bruce
For all those strategic reasons, that’s why China so assertive and hostile in claiming the South China Sea.
What are these, “South China Sea is long the domain of Chinese dynasties” and “islands are ancestry territory”? Show its historical records and resolve peacefully through the UNCLOS and UN.
Why China has rejected the invitation from Philippine to take up the matters with UN? Answer is China has no solid evidences whatsoever, but only a “flash over” record in its history about the South China Sea, Paracel and Spartly islands. Your history and maps only mentions China’s boundary up to Hainan Island.
Liao Gangzheng
yes you are right, but right now we are living in the 21st century. Get this into the chinese leadership heads. It is not working. ASEAN is not chinese vessel states anymore
Bose
It is exactly we want to say, we are surprised to see China is acting aggressively and aiming to colonize neighboring countries. Sorry, this won’t work in the 21st century anymore.
China has been intimidating Vietnam for several decades and using coward tactics to occupy the East sea, as Vietnamese call because it is on the East side of their country.
In 1974 when the Vietnam war was nearly ended, China navy disguised as fisherman and attacked the South Vietnamese army which was too busy with the war at the time, then controlled the Paracel islands up to now. Come on, do not say thousand years history, it is just 37 years ago.
In 1988, Chinese navy executed dozens of unarmed Vietnamese service men in the Spratly Islands and occupied several rocks in the area. Come on, do not say thousand years of history, Youtube has a movie of that massacre as an evidence of their crime in here, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uy2ZrFphSmc.
As regard to Chinese claim of thousand years of history, with that argument, a few hundred years later you guys will claim the whole world since you would say archeologists found evidence of Chinese in San Francisco, Boston, Los Angeles, London, Paris, Yokohama and so on, since Chinese lived there hundred of years ago.
Sinodefender
So Vietcong torture and execute Americans is that not the same thing… The Paracels and Spratlys were under jurisdiction of the Chinese it belongs to Hainan province… Why would Chinese claim lands that they never ruled? Ming actually patrolled there and it was under Qing jurisdiction…
John Chan
@Liao Gangzheng:
ASENA nations are nobody’s vassal states; they should work together with China to maintain peace and prosperity in South China Sea. The peace and prosperity in SCS are hard earned through the struggles against the western imperial powers and fascist Japan. China cannot let that fruit be destroyed by those ex-predators again by setting one nation again another in the SCS. China has no desire to see SCS becoming Balkan powder keg because some weak-minded nations in SCS.
Get this into ASEAN nations’ heads, they must co-exist and co-operate with China to maintain the peace and prosperity of SCS.
zlubmeg
If China's claim on SCS based on historical evidence, then why stop at the SCS or ECS or Tibet? why not claim the entire former territory too? such as Vietnam?
and if China doesn't want the hard-earned peace and prosperity in the ASEAN be destroyed by the ex-predator then why China pulls historical argument for it's claim while China itself historically is considered as one of the ex-predator (for Vietnamese-which is one of ASEAN member)? isn't this ironic?
also, you can't give suggestion to co-exist and co-operation to any party while they feel threatens by your action. It's like pushing your fences to your neighbor backyard and expect them not doing anything but helping you build that fences. The reaction of a rational threatened party is usually the opposite of that.
tuusacvodo
if there is anyone who knows chinese well, it is only vietnamese people. For thousands of years, vietnamese people have been fighting with chinese with only reason: to protect their country. it is no argument that vietnam was attacked and under controled by china for hundred of year but at last who won the wars, it is Vietnamese people. Invading other countries, expanding the border and controling the world has been retained in chinese leaders heads for thousands of years and they will not stop it. To control the South China sea is just the first step. Lets look this way: China has no friend in the world. They supported Popot in Cambodia in 1970s to massacre millions of Camdodian, now they support North Korea, Burma which has been isolated by the world. Is there enough to see what kind of China is????????
ozivan
@tuusacvodo. Is there enough to see what kind of China is????????
You’ve missed out many. There are many more….like China investing billions in Africa, Latin America, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka even in oil exploration in Iraq where it was recently reported that Western oil companies fear now to invest too much in unstable Iraq, etc.etc. Lend US $3 trillion. Buying up substantial Greek’s, Hungarian’s, Spanish’s public debts. Advanced US$25 billion to Russia for development of Siberian oil. They’re all smiling with glee on their faces.
You just got to spread your sight further…then you see better and more.
tuusacvodo
oh yeah, ozivan.
Let’s see ozivan. Lets open eyes to see. if you want chinese come to your country, you are welcomed,just do it, they will bring money to your country but in long term they will turn into “shit” and you and your people will suffer it. We have enough problems with chinese and we believe that if there was no china, our country will be better.
ozivan
@tuusacvodo. Which country you’re from ? So that I can give a more precise reply.
Sinodefender
Yes, unlike the West China does bring money to the country not by enslaving natives or colonizing the area…
Federalist
Let the Chinese have the South China Sea, it is their hemisphere. So long as they don’t involve themselves in the West, let them police the East.
Frank
Thanks for understanding. Chinese are business minded people.
If you read our history, even when we were the strongest nation on earth, we never attacked our customers in the west. By then, Arabs and Persians.
Bose
What a terrible and ignorant comment. Do you know the strategy Chinese using called “worms eat leaves”, gradually, without much attention they will eat up to the USA. In fact, they are “eating” us up now, open your eyes.
Narcegy
Your comment is absurd , what about the legitimate rights of the Vietnamese, Filipinos, Malaysians, Indonesians ???
Why not propose them to invade the USA as they want to be the next super-power ?
Go and surrender immediately if you want and bury your head in the sands !
At the first gun or missile shot on a Chinese, Japanese, US , Australian bound tanker or container carrier, all insurance companies would cancel their policies.
And guess how much would cost a gallon of gasole in the USA ? 50 or 150 USD ?
This planet is smaller than you think !
Frank
So it is about you oil again.
tuusacvodo
Wake up yourself, buddy. The South China sea does not belong to China, it is just a name for the sea. So, what does China wants to defence the sea that not belongs to them?? the answer is: to invade Viet Nam and Philipine, to control Japan and South Korea as their ships go by this sea. Bad China!!!
Frank
Just a name?
Where did the name come from?
You Americans do not read history, do you?
tuusacvodo
Oh, Frank!
Where does “Frank” come from??. it was from your parents, right?. But your parents can give other names to you, “Frank” now can be “Blank” or “Flank” or something else or if you dont like your name, you can give yourself a name. It is not about the name. It is only you, yourself. If someone mention about “Frank”, how can i imagine that it is you.
if you still do not get it. I am trying another way: lets say “Indian Ocean”
does it belong to India????? or “Indochina” this area includes Vietnam, Cambodia and Lao, but in your way of thinking, “Indochina” would belong to China and Indonesia??????
Or this way: Tibet belongs to Tibetian, not Chinese. Accept that?????
Sinodefender
@ tuusacvodo I would advise you to calm down and stop making insults… Tibet was a part of China during the Tang and Qing is that so hard to comprehend?
tuusacvodo
Federalist!!!
Do you really think so? You are wrong, absolutely. China never stop wishing expand their border. This time happens to Viet Nam and Philipine,.. Next,it will be any country. So, it is better to stop them NOW.
Sinodefender
Ever heard about Zheng He of the Ming dynasties? He went to foreign kingdoms as far as Africa and gave gifts to show the benevolence of the Ming. Zheng He didn’t enslave anyone or conquer there lands. China only cares about maintaining harmony with foreigners.
a_canadian_observer
ASinodefender: Zheng He wasn’t capable of doing so.
Sinodefender
Capable of doing what? Reaching Africa? There are Africans with Chinese genes from Zheng He sailors… One Kenyan girl Mwamaka Sharifu Lali went to China because scientists found Chinese gene and she toured China.
Long
Sinodefender,
oh, so Africa will be the next land that China will claim ownership of….see, it shows how greedy Chinese people like you are….pathetic
Sinodefender
Why are we greedy for discovering a Kenyan girl has Chinese ancestors? I don’t see China claiming Kenya so your argument has no grounds…
Nathan
China can police up to Hainan Island, who needs it to police the whole South China sea.
Frank
I do.
Reason
Where have you been for the last 100years?
Haven’t you heard of the Cold War? Dividing the world up between East and West Blocks has been done before and was a dismal idea.
Even if this were possible… China is by no means the heir of Asia and its seas – Japan, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Vietnam to name but a few would not support this
Cyrus
So you want China to have West Philippine Sea? That would be great and what would serve to deter a direct attack by China in the United States and the Denial of your precious Oil if war breaks out?
If America abandons SEA then our only choice is to fight or accept China as hegemon. Lets say for example the Philippine will accept China as hegemon, due to the abandonment of the USA. China will have a doorway in the Pacific thereby endangering your precious mainland.
Now, see the importance of the West Philippine Sea, East Sea or South China Sea? You need to think of what are the possibilities of a Hegemonic China in Asia. Concentrate on the East and You will get the West? Such childish thinking.
Federalist
Apparently, none of you know Chinese foreign policy that has been in place for the past two thousand years, which is most likely due to the lack of cultural study in today’s schools. Chinese foreign policy is strictly limited to East, Southeast, and Central Asia with trading relations with the West and the rest of the World.
In China’s near 5,000 year history, they have never expanded outside of East, Southeast, and Central Asia.
I’m sorry, but when most of East and Southeast Asia were once vassal states, a claim to the South China Sea seems valid to me.
Look at the UK, the Commonwealth of Nations is made up of a great deal of world territory that benefits all of the members. Should such a “commonwealth” appear in East and Southeast Asia, Chinese industry and ingenuity could benefit all of the member states.
Besides, the United States is no better. We have hundreds of military bases around the world, we currently occupy two independent nations, we have a great deal of influence our former territories (the Philippines) and occupied nations (Japan and South Korea). You don’t think the Chinese are scared about the same things that we are afraid of them doing? The Chinese are NOT a superpower. The United States maintains hegemony over the world. It is time to move back to a state of a balance of power to prevent war at all costs. It has worked for thousands of years, it can work again.
Cyrus
A balance of power between two hegemon resulted in the Cold War.
Hell we are letting China have its way with the Philippines. Thailand has long been an independent Country. Vietnam once occupied part of China. Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapor, and East Timor was never under Chinese Vassalage.
THE PHILIPPINES will never bow down to China. That is a fact and will continue to be so.
Sinodender
China only cares about trade they are not dumb enough to risk war for nothing. Philippines can’t do anything to China…
Cyrus
Yeah I never took up East Asia in my University years but I did take up Political Sciences.
I know that China has hegemonic ambitions for one. Look at it as soon as it was able to expand its Military trying to exert its sphere of influence in places it doesn’t belong.
Having military bases does not connote to occupied territory. It only means that US Presence would assuage the country of its External Defense.
Federalist
I will answer both of your double post in just one post.
The Cold War was very focused on ideology and way of life. Today’s China is state capitalist when it comes to the economy, and authoritarian/conservative when it comes to social policy. A new Cold War would be more focused on the struggle between one superpower that desires to keep its place, while the other struggles to gain the title of a superpower.
May I remind you that there have been far more examples of two East-West powers throughout history? The Roman and Han Empires, Byzantine and Tang Empires, Holy Roman and Ming Empires, and the French and Qing Empires. These powers never collided during their time as “dual powers” with somewhat different cultures.
It doesn’t matter whether the Chinese could have taken them over militarily, which they could have in their history, but whether those specific states recognized China as too powerful to contend. Vietnam occupied part of China’s territory before and a little into the Han Dynasty. It was known as the Kingdom of Nanyue and it was ruled by a Chinese family. The Han eventually took Nanyue and Northern Vietnam, where it remained in Chinese hands for centuries. Besides, I never said those nations were vassals, they were tributary states, which basically made them de facto vassals, but it was easier for China just to take their money rather than conquer the land and reap the reward.
Are you saying that China has no right to a sphere of influence in East, Southeast, and Central Asia and the United States should have one? Hegemony over an area doesn’t mean that the Chinese literally want to take that land. They simply want influence. Also, should most nations ever come to a point where they can potentially challenge a superpower, they to would have hegemonic ambitions.
Also, I’m not saying the United States has any occupied nations other than Iraq and Afghanistan, which it will soon leave unless Malaki asks for troops to stay in Iraq. I said that the United States still has troops in formerly occupied nations.
anon
“It is time to move back to a state of a balance of power to prevent war at all costs. It has worked for thousands of years, it can work again.”
This is not only a false interpretation of history by any standard, it is laughably, almost hysterically, wrong interpretation of history by any standard.
Balance of power has never been peaceful. It is the periods of Hegemonic rule that have been the most peaceful.
Federalist
So a balance of power between two hegemons has never been peaceful? I suppose I should have clarified my neorealist position by stating that the balance of power should be between two powers, not multiple.
True democracy
Even if a hegemonic rule were "the most peaceful," why should U.S. be the hegemonic power?
Cyrus
What I’m saying is it will never work. Look at Europe in its try at balance of powers how many wars broke out.
Look at USSR and the USA being the only two hegemons remaining the Cold War broke out.
China is planning to become a Hegemon by its arms build up and bullying SEA to its whim. Why do you think the United States has an Military Alliance with South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines? It is for the purpose of assuring that China doesn’t expand beyond its coastal boarders.
It has no hope of ever becoming a hegemon if it is blatantly waiving the flag of hegemon it will send red lights to other country thereby assuring a threatening posture by its neighbors.
Again if your thinking of History during the Roman, etc. Did they ever coexist? They are fighting each other the Romans where just held up by the Parthians if ever they reach China war would break out. Just like Byzantine and Ottoman empires, again it is critically wrong to compare today with old history. Since the technology of the Romans and today are different things.
Was it globalization during those times? Do they even know exactly where each other is located? Come now all the neighbors of Rome that poses a threat to it was conquered to protect its status as Hegemon.
It has happened before so will it now if another country rises to become hegemon not under the influence of the Hegemon. The United States knows this better and the reason why it is surrounding China and is spying on China to assure that it still has the Military Edge over China.
Federalist
A balance of power between two superpowers can’t work? I just listed the examples.
Rome and the Han knew about each other and had a healthy trade relationship. If a war ever broke out, it would be a disaster for both empires as they were roughly equal in nearly all things.
Again, you are just saying that the United States should dominate the world. China doesn’t want territory, it wants influence. Do you not get that? Chinese foreign policy for the past thousand years is clear, so long as weaker states recognize that China is the leader of East, Southeast, and Central Asia, there is nothing to worry about.
Cyrus
Just told you that was ancient history. Look at recent history, Germany and Great Britain? USSR and USA? Russia and Ottoman Empire. France and Russia? How many wars broke out in recent history due to two hegemons?
Federalist
And have you not noticed that China hasn’t been a power until now and one must look to their history to have some sort of an idea of how they will act? That is why I use Ancient and pre-Modern history.
Also, that was when a balance of power consisted between multiple great powers, not two superpowers.
Cyrus
There is no multiple great powers. The US is still and the only Hegemon in the world. China with its aggressive stance would attract attention as a threat.
Cyrus
They are using Sun Tzu since ASEAN are weaker than they are then attack. If the country is more powerful than they are withdraw.
Just read The Art of War, they are employing this right now.
The measure of a supreme general is to win the war before fighting the battle. That is why they want to negotiate bilaterally and not through the UN. Because one on one they can pressure all they want.
Hmm
I remember the controversy only become a big issue when Clinton made her speech and took a very public stand.
So if the US is the first mover on this issue or the source of the controversy, I would be more interested in knowing why the US wants to assert control over the South China Sea contest.
Sinodefender
They still want to be the world police so they can claim the moral ground in any conflict with other countries…
a_canadian_observer
@Sinodefender: As long as rogue states like china, Iran, NK… still exist, we do need a body of international police (US).
Sinodefender
Rogue states is just what the West labels as their enemies… What are the qualifications of a rogue state lol.
vince
rogue states meaning countries with forced abortion/ extreme human rights violations/ suppressed press freedom and etc.
lawerence
One of the most stupid article where, as usual, the “professional” predictions are fit only for the trash and will never come out true.
mareo2
These article that don’t seems to be based on reading studies, reports, advises or suggestions from chinese Think Tanks, PLAN officers or scholars, require to make some assumptions.
a) that the PRC already take their military modernization program in aims similar to the Cold War standards of nuclear deterrence by expanding their minimum nuclear deterrence capabilities.
b) that the PRC want to convert the South China sea on their next naval bastion.
“Bastion (naval)
A bastion in naval strategy is a heavily defended area of water in which friendly naval forces can operate safely. Typically, that area will be partially enclosed by friendly shoreline, defended by naval mines, monitored by sensors, and heavily patrolled by surface, submarine, and air forces.
Soviet and Russian Naval Bastions
The Soviet Navy originally attempted to directly contest with the navies of NATO for control of the blue-water ocean. As the Cold War progressed, however, it became clear that the Soviets could not win a toe-to-toe fight in the deep water, and the information sold to the Soviets by the Walker spy ring in 1980s made it clear that the ballistic missile submarines, in particular, were very unlikely to be able to carry out their nuclear attack missions.
Realizing their vulnerability, the Soviets adopted a two-level approach. They armed their older, noisier, and less reliable “second generation” ballistic missile submarines with shorter-range nuclear weapons and deployed them as close as possible to the United States. Soviet submarine K-219, which suffered a catastrophic explosion and fire off Bermuda on 3 October 1986, was one such boat. Meanwhile, they used the information provided by Walker to build both dramatically improved attack boats such as the Akula-class, as well as more-survivable “boomers” such as the Typhoon-class armed with increasingly accurate and long-range missiles. Then they held those “third-generation” boats close to home, patrolling only near and under the Arctic ice cap. To secure the bastions, they also built large numbers of Sovremennyy- and Udaloy-class destroyers, whose primary mission was anti-submarine barrier and picket patrol.
Chinese Naval Bastions
There are indications that the Chinese PLAN is adopting the concept as well, fortifying the Bohai Sea for use by its growing number of ballistic missile submarines.
United States Naval Bastions
In the sense that a bastion is set up to protect the naval forces themselves rather than a land feature (e.g. the Panama Canal), the United States Navy has never made significant use of the bastion concept.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bastion_(naval)
From just reading public access information we can get these ideas.
1 – A Naval Bastion for submarine launched nukes is the strategy of Great Power that reckon that their Navy is inferior to their main competitor and take a defensive stance.
2 – The PRC is already making Bohai their Naval Bastion without making other people angry.
3 – If the PRC want to make the South China Sea their next naval bastion they are ringing alarm bells in too many Asia-Pacific countries in the process and planning to militarize the South China Sea for permanently deploy nukes in the very middle of the ASEAN region. This is unlikely to be welcomed by the members of the ASEAN.
“On 15 December 1995, the Southeast Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty was signed with the intention of turning Southeast Asia into a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone. The treaty took effect on 28 March 1997 after all but one of the member states have ratified it. It became fully effective on 21 June 2001, after the Philippines ratified it, effectively banning all nuclear weapons in the region.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASEAN
Is going to add another reason for a very high diplomatic cost and the risk of military conflicts for a limited enhancement of extra nuclear deterrence.
“…Yet while most attention has focused on Beijing’s appetite for fishery and energy resources, from a submariner’s perspective, the semi-closed sea is integral to China’s nuclear strategy. And without understanding the nuclear dimension of the South China Sea disputes, China’s maritime expansion makes little sense…”
Being from the only country nuked (twice), make some of my compatriots see many things with a strong suspicion or fear to expansion of nuclear weapons in the Asia-Pacific region. It is good to be on guard of such things, but I wonder if it don’t affect their objective analysis of the situation. In other words, the idea that the PRC’s main reason is get some extra space for their nuclear armed submarines seems to me to be a little exaggerated.
Frank
With Vietnam on one side, Philippines on the other, South China Sea is the worst place for your Nuclear Missile Subs.
Bohai bay is the best place for that type of operation.
China needs South China Sea is because that is the place left to us by our ancestors.
It is also a trip wire to occupy Vietnam or Philippines in the case of a full scale war against a major power.
China does not want Vietnam or Philippines. However, China cannot afford to let either of them become hostile. They are too close to China.
Finetea
This is a good point. China needs to have defense capability over the South China sea to defend its interests against a belligerent and childlike USA.
Sinodefender
The U.S. was childlike ever since the founding of its nation. They have expelled Native Americans and called it manifest destiny. Then they enslaved Africans and never made amends to them after they were freed. Then they forcefully opened the gates of Japan to modernization and look how well that impacted… Nanjing massacre anyone? Somehow they thought it was lawful to be racist and not allow Chinese immigrants yet Chinese don’t have any laws hating on Whites.
Cyrus
The United States is great. It is far better than say the USSR if it won the Cold War.
Nanjing Massacre? Yeah I remember you must be thankful to the Nazi in Philips company for saving some Chinese lives back then. A thought to ponder though, who helped the Chinese fight Japan though? Who supplied arms to the Chinese? IT WAS AMERICA! So before you go on to your selective history might as well shut up. You are arguing about America and yet you forget that America HELPED China fight the Japanese. Without American Equipment I doubt you could have held the Japanese onslaught.
Sinodefender
I never doubted American help, but Americans only supplied arms to Nationalists. Germans supplied arms and training to the Nationalist also in conjunction with Chinese communist fought Japanese and bogged them down. America didn’t bother helping China until Pearl Harbor so that just proves my point. The equipment didn’t help at all, the Japanese had superior military but raids contributed to stalling out he Japanese. The Chinese were trying to outlast the IJA by not launching full offensives to build up on military strength. The West only began sending aid after Japan bombed Pearl harbor and the Nationalist government received more aid from Soviets and Nazis. John Rabe was a member of the Nazi party but that does not mean he killed Jews. Yes, he saved more than “some” people he saved 250,000 civilians from being massacred what is wrong with that? John Rabe even sent a letter to Hitler to lament the death of innocent Chinese… Even today people in Nanjing honor him. All history is selective…
Cyrus
That is not far from the truth though. The Filipino’s and American’s held the Japanese for months in the Philippines allowing Australia enough time to mount their defenses with inferior troops and no food.
Insightful Analysis
Interesting analysis from Tetsuo Kotani, no matter all the BS from the detestable Amerikan trolls here as usual. Good article Mr Kotani. An insight most readers have not considered.
tuusacvodo
Talking about Chinese and Japanese during the WWII. It was ashame of chinese. They surrendered right at the beginning. During the war, 900,000 chinese sodiers could not defeat 150,000 Japenese sodiers and they were running like ….i dont know.
Sinodefender
Surrendered, you have your facts mixed up. If all Chinese surrendered then Japan might the axis may have won this war… 150,000 soldiers are you kidding me there were at least the lowest Japanese sources are 480,000 dead and the highest are 1.77 million dead Nationalist sources how could 480,000 soldiers die if there were only 150,000(I’m not even counting the wounded). The Chinese were uncoordinated because there was fighting between the Nationalist, Communist and warlord forces.
tuusacvodo
How many chinese died? was it 20 millions. Amazing numbers!!!!!!!
Tomaz
A piece of advice to you, please don’t be a racist.
Cyrus
No that is not the case Pearl Harbor happened because Japanese Oil will run out in a week. This is namely because America embargoed oil in order to stop Japanese offensive.