With an eye on China, the US has been keen to press for closer military co-operation with India. India, though, prefers to hedge its bets.
Much has been written over the past decade about the promise of a transformed US-India strategic relationship, both globally and in Asia. From safeguarding the global commons and promoting the spread of democratic values, to preventing the domination of Asia by a single power, this partnership of ‘natural’ allies has been deemed indispensable for stability and prosperity in the 21st century.
There has, perhaps unsurprisingly, been much less written about the limits to such cooperation. Yet with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton having passed through New Delhi last week following the second round of the annual US-India Strategic Dialogue—one of only a half-dozen such dialogues that the United States has—these limits appear to be kicking in, and forcefully.
In late April, despite personal lobbying by US President Barack Obama, New Delhi eliminated the top two US contenders from its shortlist of suppliers for the India Air Force’s fourth generation of advanced combat aircraft. With New Delhi’s preliminary design contract for co-development of a fifth-generation fighter recently signed with Moscow, the window for US-India collaboration here appears to have closed. In the same month, New Delhi also signalled its disinclination to upgrade the strategic dialogue to a joint 2+2 (foreign + defence ministers) format, as the United States has with Tokyo, in turn leading to postponement of the Strategic Dialogue. Attempts in May to revive the issue were met with firm objections, leaving the format stillborn.
Near-term disappointments aside, though, it’s the underlying differences in New Delhi’s strategic goals that have been the key obstacle to deepening the US-India defence relationship.
When bilateral defence cooperation was first envisioned in the early- to mid-2000s, a robust maritime component was viewed as the crown jewel in the burgeoning US-India strategic partnership. The US hope—if not expectation—was two-fold:
First, New Delhi would be Washington’s key security partner in the Indian Ocean region (IOR), increasingly joining with the US military in use of force planning to address regional contingencies. In other words, India would be the Japan of the IOR, just without the Japanese Constitution’s war renouncing Article 9. The 2005 bilateral Framework Defense Agreement lent credence to this belief, envisaging Indian collaboration in ‘multinational operations…of common interest’ ranging from humanitarian and disaster relief activities to Proliferation Security Initiative-style interdictions and perhaps even ‘coalition of the willing’ interventions that lacked an explicit UN mandate.
Second, as such collaboration was extended to ‘out-of-area’ operations, ranging from the Mediterranean to the Pacific, New Delhi was expected to participate in the soft maritime ‘containment’ of China. India’s dispatch of a temporary liaison officer to US Pacific Command headquarters in the wake of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, its willingness to participate in trilateral naval exercises in the East China Sea and its hosting of wide-ranging multinational exercises in critical Indian Ocean waterways that serve as approaches to the Malacca Straits lent considerable weight to this belief.
On both counts, expectations weren’t borne out. A civil nuclear deal and endorsement of India’s Security Council aspirations notwithstanding, New Delhi appears unwilling to confront Beijing in any security format other than one strictly bilateral (Sino-Indian), nor countenance the degree of ‘jointness’ or interoperability in bilateral defence planning preferred by Washington. Indeed, at the very point defence interoperability assumes the trappings of quasi-informal military alignment, New Delhi tends to shrink back.
Almost a decade after its first broaching by Washington, New Delhi has yet to post a mid-level officer on a permanent basis to Pacific Command. Recent statements by India’s Ministry of Defence that it doesn’t seek such a relationship with US combatant commands, as well as its disallowing of all unsupervised contact between armed forces officials and foreign defence delegations, suggests a shrinking space for exchange of ideas at the military-to-military level with PACOM.
Despite being afforded an exceptional window on the operation of the US military’s CENTRIX battle group networking system during Malabar series exercises, New Delhi remains averse to signing a Memorandum of Agreement that would facilitate tactical communications system interoperability. Driven as much by concerns over intrusiveness, New Delhi has chosen to depend instead on Russia’s military-grade satellite navigational system, which is as yet only semi-operational. The fact that top-dollar purchases of US military transport and reconnaissance aircraft have had to be kitted with down-rated avionics suites hasn’t, it seems, changed New Delhi’s thinking.
Leery that navy-to-navy fuel transfer arrangements, as practised during the US-India Malabar series exercises, might set a precedent for reciprocal fuel-sharing requests during peacetime, or in the South China Sea and beyond, New Delhi has also stepped back from initialling a mutual Logistics Support Agreement.
Meanwhile, apprehensive that involvement of US carrier battle groups in the Malabar exercises, and the attendant shore leave for hundreds of US servicemen on Indian soil, might create demands for immunity protections, the exercises have been scaled down. And, following a bluntly-worded demarche by Beijing in 2007 in the wake of five-party war games hosted in the Bay of Bengal, the multinational component of these exercises has been shifted ‘out of area’ altogether—all ensuing Malabar exercises in the IOR have since been strictly US-India affairs.
Far from suggesting a willingness to extend Indian maritime security obligations beyond the IOR, as some have inferred the trilateral Malabar exercises in the East China Sea to be, it in fact reveals an Indian disinclination to be tied to a US and allied maritime strategy in its core Indian Ocean zone of interest. Practical arms-length collaboration, as opposed to integration, appears to be the ceiling to such bilateral defence cooperation.
Photo Credit: US Navy
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bhupinder
no body help anyone in world, american are worse greedy and manipulator, they totally destroyed iran, helped iraq to attach on iran and died killing each other ,same in chili vanzeaula,,score of other example, japan, south korea are their slave, india and chine should come together,form free trade zone and start business like germany french doing,,business is better sense thanfight,,chine cannot never attach india unnecessarily,,chine and india if unite they can surpass whole world trade and beneficial for each other,,chine cannot afford attach on india,,it will be very suicidal for india, only american companies will be great beneficiary,,india should not come in their trap,basically they are losing star,,the world think tant need to devise new theory to change the world and capitalist system to survive
kuldeep
multipolarity is a nonstarter US is far ahead nonetheless india is nowhere near being a pole in a supposedly multipolar world. india is dependent on US for getting in to APEC , NSG, wessner agreement, australia group , MTCR, UN Security council permanent membership etc. Instead of weakening US india should work to enhance US role particularly in asia and IOR to counterbalance chinese influence. only with US support india can hope to counter or compete with china. US has worked hard spending precious political capital to pass nuke deal in NSG. Us- India make a great combo.
Habu
I am pleased that India is showing reluctance to join the Anglo-American boys for a ‘jolly good time.’ In such a partnership, India will be relegated to the status of junior partner or gun bearer. Because of the present superiority of Western military technology, India will always be working from the back. However India is making strides in that area.
In any case, I believe that India’s bypassing US for air fighters was an implicit declaration that India does not want to do the bidding for the US against China. For the first time since the Indian Parliament voted to condemn the US invasion of Iraq, I have been pleased with India’s strategic decision-making. Whether Saddam of Iraq or Ghaddafi of Libya, it does not pay to befriend the US. Once they gain a toehold, they will turn on their friends because they are greedy.
India would be a fool to team up with the Anglo-American interests against China. As it is, China is well ahead of India in military capability. Even the Chinese economy is more advanced than India’s. The notion of India taking on China is similar to the Iraq-Iran War, which pleased Henry Kissinger because they were knocking each other out. India and China are too shrewd to fall into such a trap. Besides, it would devastate their economies and miss a unique opportunity to lift their economies in 200 years. Can’t pass up on this golden opportunity.
I prefer India and China deal in a bi-lateral manner. They can solve their issues by themselves. Already they have a thriving trade between them which is good. That India will join the SCO will ace out the “Great Satan” from playing a significant role in Asia mainland. The SCO membership will provide a security blanket ans well as considerable economic opportunities. Seems like a win-win proposition. The most important aspect of SCO membership is the automatic tie-in to oil and gas. There is no doubt that a pipeline grid will emerge which will mitigate the effect of the US Navy on trading routes, as far as energy supplies go.
The bell is already tolling for the fall of the US Empire. It is failing because of internal problems arising from military profligacy. The world is not going to mourn for the US but especially after the sadism it has demonstrated post Cold War. India and China are not going to let the “Great Satan” walk all over them. No shades of bullying Iraq or Libya here.
ozivan
There you are !! Read HABU. Didn’t I said that the Indians are fiercely independent minded. Me have many interactions with Indians & Sikhs, one of the many things I am certain that they are very consistent about : Indians are nobody’s stooge.
observer
The problem with India is that it is totally dysfunctional. There are some very bright people at the top but other than that the governmental sector in India is a mess starting from a garbage or sanitation policy all the way to a foreign policy.
Once can understand India’s ambivalence in procuring front line armaments from the US in light of history (1950-1975) where in times of need, the US withheld spare parts and ammunition because Indian objectives did not mirror that of the US. In light of this, India prefers a more reliable partner.
However, India has no choice but closer relations with the U.S. China is not interested in close ties, seeing India as a rival and preferring to adopt a destabilizing posture with periodic irritants – be it the stapled visa, or absurd support of Pakistan or claiming territory. Even if – hypothetically all territorial disputes are settled in China’s favor it will still stoke discontent. That is one of its foreign policy cornerstones.
Pakistan and its subversion vis-a-vis India are too well known for a detailed explanation. This leaves the India US question. India should shed its colonial and beggar bowl hangovers and deal with the US in a broad framework – defence, trade and foreign policy. It is the only hope India has of relevance in an increasingly competitive world.
Too often people within India seem to think too much of her accomplishments. Yes there has been a spectacular rise in production and wealth. But upto 80% of the population do not share in this bounty. This just cannot be ignored. Local governance in India is paralyzed by petty politics and corruption of a scale that is unimaginable. Work in India’s modernization has barely begin when one compares it to China but already a lot of Indians are claiming victory!
megakids
@observer
Agree totally that India is a country in a mess. US will ignore India if not because of China’s rise and US’s failure in Pakistan. You can say that India’s value is dependent on how US declines in the South Asia.
But your third paragraph had the cause and effect reversed. China hardly looks at India as a rival. It’s the other way round. Stapled visa affects only people from the disputed land and it’s a “statement” of “to be continued”.
Indians are completely poisoned by the thinking of a fake “democracy”. I must compliment the Brits for such a great act during their colonization, planting a marvelous seed of delusional belief into Indians, coupled with a boastful personality, the majority of Indian population actually believe that India is the greatest country on earth because they are the largest democracy!
Indians in Mumbai said: “Mumbai has to buck up. Or else we will be over-taken by Shanghai in a few years!”…..and it’s not a joke!
Ravi
@megakids: Ignorance is bliss. Live in the ignorance of superiority of your own and whichever country you come from. There is silent mass of millions of Indians who are toiling and sweating to take their country forward. Its their efforts which is counting and will count rather than few ‘boastful Indian personalities’ that you might have come across. Genius of India will have you eat your words in days to come. Be assured on that front.
ozivan
@Observer. You said : There are some very bright people at the top but other than that…
Todate, I would count at least a 100 Indian & Sikh friends or business associates of matured age that I had, from educationists, doctors, engineers,accountants, etc to lawyers, and I found them to be very dynamic, sharp and bright. And I am sure they are many more of them in India beyond count.
I am baffled why the corridors of political power in India are not held by people like them, instead of very old run of the mill type politicians (excepting PM Mamohan Singh whom I hold in high regard)
ozivan
It’s hard to perceive an Indian mind. One thing for sure is that, don’t take the Indians for granted. They have a mind of their own. They are fiercely independent minded people.
bhupinder
american history is totally subverting any national talent,power ,uk,iran,japan south korea were subverted ot just stooge during american help, whole countries suffered with american dictorial ways,specofically in democratic country like india,,usa policies of socalled buying usa weaponaries and socalled finance system will not solve any indian problems, usa economy is of speculated,unethical hollywood brainwashing machine of sex, drugs and cartel,mafia linkage,,india cannot afford become enemy of chine unnecessarily spending 40% of gdp on american weapon, we need to join chine with free trade and expect chine tourist,high tech import which are 10 time expensive if we buy from western ,,chine is future market, we should recognise it and be prepare to keep busy with chinese dialogue instead of playing game like nehru did,,chine have great potential of future,they have money,,power,spirit ,motivation to change the world peacefully, american are one agenda ,how to keep running their system of consumption, hypocracy of elite powerful thinktank without any hardwork,making other nation totally servant by selling outdated high expensive gudgets and buying their cheap labour,,things will be totally changed in future ,as chinese did,,with huge planning,india is not legging behind,,,
ari
True. If New Delhi were to distance itself from washington’s ploy to get it to align with America against China, it would at one stroke, demonstrate herself as a real independent sovereign country looking out for its own interest. It is pointless having ill-will and bad relations with a neighbour which will be around for a very very long time. More benefits can be derived with a good neighbourly relations. Imagine the synergistic economic spin-offs of a hearty and positive relationship. Both would stand to prosper unlike Washington’s intention which is to manipulate India to ultimately destroy herself, her people and her economy for the benefit of destroying America’s enemy or rather competitor in terms of economic power and military power. Hope India can see the forest despite the trees.
The advent of New Delhi not bending to Washington’s pressure to side with it has huge implications. It would immediately, the rise of Asia – or Eurasia if you like – and a loss of America’s influence on a global level which would be a game changer. This would be but a start of the unravelling of washington’s global domination. Thus, if New Delhi truly understands her big power potential, this one decision will see whether Washington continue to dominate the world even more, or less.
Personally, my personally philosoph is no one should be become too big or too powerful or too rich. Why do we need that kind of inequality and disparity for? Why should we have anyone to be too wealthy and dominant? We do not need “too big to fail”. America has become too big and too powerful. It would be good not to encourage it to continue that path; like big banks.
The ball now really, is in New Delhi’s court to determine the direction of the world in the 21st century – Do we go for a more prosperous and peaceful world or a tense unstable world continued to be dominated by Washinton.
Your call, Mrs Rajiv Gandhi and Mr. Mamohan Singh.
TarunD
Looks like Beijing calls the shots.Indian leaders are totally clueless when it comes to strategy,foreign policy or what is best for Indian national interest.All these bunch of sisies do is sit on fence and do nothing – and hope that our problems will go away.They dont have the balls to stand up to PRC or Pakistani military or ISI.Just look at Indias nonresponse to attack on Kabul embassy or Mumbai or Beijing’s various provocation at the border or attempts to sabotage our economy(fake pharmaceuticals etc,ADB loans).We ask the US to help us vis a vis Pakistan for instance or membership of the security council yet we never reciprocate.India has no friends or allies to speak of because we are a bunch of cowards who are too scared to recognise who our true friends and allies are and to stand by them through thick and thin.Nehruvian politk has bred a generation of leftist leaders who are marching Indians to self destruction like the lemmings.
God help us!Jai Hind
Thomas
“New Delhi would be Washington’s key security partner in the Indian Ocean region”
That’s a very subtle way of asking India to be a Western lackey! Yes Boss, yes Boss! However from what we know about India from WW2, they will be a stooge for every country from Germany, Japan, to the Italians, British and Americans! The West cannot ask for a more subservient country! LOL
N Prasad
Quite right! The West (US especially) is still trying to use the Divide-and-rule
tactic. India against China! Its the Pentagon’s dream. No need to risk American
lives. Just get India and China to destroy each other. We must NEVER fall again for this trick.
Rajagopal
No need for India and China to destroy each other. Cripple will be enough.
Than US will stay worlds only superpower for another 50 years.
Fred List
“An equivalent effort needs to be brought to bear on New Delhi to strike down barriers within its trade, manufacturing, land use, labour, and industrial bankruptcy regime, so that a trade format involving Japanese design, Indian light manufacturing and US final goods consumption demand can reinforce ties between the three nations.”
This is a non-starter for the US. Why can’t India just export to China/Japan/Germany — countries with huge trade surpluses. The US has a dire need to reduce its imports from all countries and increase its exports. The US can’t be consumer of last resort – not with it’s economy back in recession and no employment improvement. Countries with huge surpluses and fast growth should be the ones who step up to the plate. The US will be happy to lend them money to consume US-made products.
Girish
“Why can’t India just export to China/Japan/Germany — countries with huge trade surpluses.”
Industrilization is happening here in rapid phase. India’s export is growing with 20% growth rate. Massive Industrial infrastructure project like “Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor” are under progress. By 2015, India would be exporting around 500+ billion of goods so there is so much to see now regarding India and its manufacturing capabilities. India is now already in top 10 industrialized nation.
In last decade, India mastered the IT service sector industry and in this new decade, manufacturing is the focus for everyone here. India have already planned to invent trillion dollars into infra by 2017.
There is whole lots of things to see about India in coming years..!!
Girish
India is equally focused in other countries too but still US cannot be ignored at any cost. It is still the largest consuming economy in the world and will remain so for at least next 20 years.
Girish
India’s inspiration is to be a Superpower finally where as strategic partnership with US (US prospective ) is to make India its client state and not let it development some vital technologies and become self sufficient. US want India to be its client state just like Japan etc. By doing this US can avoid the emergence of one power in future to challenge its status [look at Japan]. Also it will eliminate the changes of India/China/Russia allian which if become a reality, will change the dynamic of this world.
At current moment, India’s prospective is to be a partner country with US and share tech and its development rather then just always buy them [even Russin is also no more a seller to India]. Also India want to escalate its industrial growth/energy sector etc for which US can provide some vital help either in providing market or investments.
India do not want to be perceived with West as we know our interest are associated with Asia and our neighbors.
China now want India to be a full member of SCO where its earlier stand was opposite. Russia always wanted India to be its full member.
Its time to see how India benefits from its good relationship with West and how it collaborate with China to make Asia a power engine of 21st century with massive market, economy and human talent.
Well history is reviving itself. India and China are only gaining their lost glories…
Merlin
ah the “India-Superpower” spokesperson
Girish
Do you have any problem if Indians have inspirations?
India’s economy will be equal to combine economy of entire Europe within next 20 years? and economist do not disagree with it and what ordinary people like you think is something which doesn’t matter.
4 years back, Indian economy was half the size of Spain, today its 20% bigger than Spanish economy. So can you feel the speed? by 2015 and 2018, it will be bigger then the economies of France, Germany, Britain etc…!!
Its just that most of the world is ignorant towards India, its potential and also its achievement in last 10 years as everyone is busy with China. But I think its better of India atleast for next 10 to 15 years to not to remain in lime light. As a rising nation is always perceived as a threat.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#India