The US decision not to sell Taiwan the latest F-16 fighter is a sign ties could be unravelling. Washington should back a Taiwan breakout strategy.
China’s success in limiting advanced arms sales to Taiwan is spurring an unintended consequence in the form of Taiwan’s asymmetrical military strategy. The United States’ recent decision to upgrade Taiwan’s aging F-16 A/B fighters, but not to sell new and advanced F-16 C/D aircraft, suggests that the transfer of high-tech military systems to Taiwan will be increasingly blocked by China’s growing economic and political clout. But while cross-strait stability has improved markedly in recent years, peaceful unification is hardly around the corner, a fact underscored by China’s vast array of missiles and comprehensive military modernization.
Clearly, Taiwan needs a new strategy, and now senior officials from Taiwan are privately hinting that such a strategy is underway. While not abandoning closer economic and diplomatic engagement with the mainland, Taiwan appears to be turning its focus away from trying to maintain a conventional military balance and toward acquiring unconventional capabilities that could thwart any future Chinese aggression. Advanced aircraft and stealthy submarines will remain on Taiwan’s military wish-list, but in the meantime Taiwan will forge ahead with a variety of very real asymmetrical instruments of power. These instruments are under review, but they are likely to include anti-access capabilities and operations employed by countries like Iran (think small-boat swarm tactics combined with mines and missiles) and emerging technologies for conducting cyber warfare.
At the heart of what has catalysed Taiwan’s emerging asymmetric strategic thinking are China’s steady military modernization and at least the perception of diminishing US power. Relations between Taiwan and China today are remarkably positive compared with just a few years ago. However, the short-term reduction of tensions doesn’t vitiate the fact that the People’s Republic of China’s influence over Taiwan is accelerating over time. The economic, political, and military ties that bind Washington and Taipei together appear to be unravelling, one strand at a time, and the balance of leverage for each of these three foundations is shifting in favour of Beijing.
China became Taiwan’s largest trading partner in 2005. Since the signing of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement in 2010, China has continued to further displace the United States, which now accounts for only one-tenth of Taiwan’s total trade volume. Meanwhile, China’s mounting economic ties with Taiwan haven’t been matched by an easing of political pressure. To be sure, China has stopped trying to buy off the remaining countries around the world that still recognize Taiwan over China, but China also continues to obstruct Taiwan’s participation in the international community. Whether at the International Civil Aviation Organization, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, or other organizations, Beijing’s approval is ultimately required for Taiwan’s involvement. This lingering political coercion, despite growing economic cooperation, partly reflects the fact that last year’s economic framework deal represented the ‘low hanging fruit,’ and that any future cross-strait agreements will prove much more difficult to realize.
The United States needs to support Taiwan across all three arenas of economic, political, and military power. At present, the United States is trying to pivot from a fixation on the greater Middle East to deeper engagement across the Indo-Pacific region. Part of that gradual pivot must include continued close ties with Taiwan in order to buttress regional stability. The US-Taiwan relationship allows Taipei to negotiate more confidently with Beijing and better resist the coercion tactics that Taiwan has faced in the past. While the immediate cross-strait tensions have been reduced, the long-term prospects for Taiwan’s freedom and ties to the United States are far from clear.
The traditional vehicle through which the United States has been able to bolster Taiwan’s security forces faces an increasing number of obstacles. The pattern of arms sales from Washington to Taipei is growing more erratic in the face of a vociferous Beijing. President George W. Bush pledged an $11 billion arms package back in 2001. After the Obama administration announced the second part of that same package (some $6.4 billion of the original $11 billion arms package), China responded by cutting off US-China military-to-military exchanges; bilateral relations continued their downward trajectory for months afterward. Concerns over the potential danger and costs of this type of behaviour from China has factored into the decision making of US officials, as suggested by the Obama administration’s decision to put off any sale of new aircraft to Taiwan.
To reverse this seemingly inexorable trend and avoid being trapped by Chinese tactics, the United States needs to support a Taiwan breakout strategy. The goal should be for Taiwan to become more integrated in the fabric of the region, both economically and politically, and to maintain its sense of security as it builds relations with the mainland. With respect to military power, the United States should assist Taiwan as it continues to think through its requirements for anti-access tactics, operations, and hardware. Indeed, US officials announced this week that new arms sales to Taiwan are being considered, and it’s therefore probable that hardware aimed at building up asymmetrical, anti-access capabilities will be at the top of any list. Security in cyber space will also be vital, given that this domain has quickly become both a leading vulnerability and a stellar opportunity for defence.
The United States needs to work creatively and actively with Taiwan on all three fronts, but above all it should help Taiwan to develop more effective asymmetric strategies for the defence of Taiwan. As Taiwan celebrates is centennial on October 10, China should have no doubt that an armed attack on Taiwan would result in significant losses to the Mainland.
Patrick M. Cronin is Senior Advisor and Senior Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security.
Photo Credit: My Day
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Matt
We have to sell weapons to Taiwan, we want to sell weapons to Taiwan. In 1989 the Chinese on the mainland were saying we want to be like Taiwan, when the mainland is democratic their will be reunification between Formosa and the mainland.
These people have been operating in democracy for years and holding elections, the communists that seek to re-brand themselves as democrats will be no match for the slick Chinese from Formosa.
In free and fair elections, the Prime Minister and President will come from the island. What would have happened in Russia if a part of it was democratic, after communism broke down who would have won the elections, the professionals or the amateurs.
So it is smart to have good ties with those that will run China.
Vicy
Yes I believe the mainland will become democratized one day, hopefully we will live to see it. I hate CCP they are the real theif and brain washers!!
Reason
@ JC….
But the CCP aint China!
That’s the point you miss.
Don’t forget, the KMT is an older government than the CCP and is perfectly legitimate by any measure.
You’re effectively saying that all Chinese should yield to the Mainland government, whoever that should be… this is entirely childish and unreasonable thinking.
Chinese is an ethnicity and NOT an inherent citizenship that one can’t escape from. Ethnic Chinese are free to choose which citizenship they wish, where ever that may be. This is not treason against whichever fat-cats happen to be on the throne in Beijing/Nanjing at any given time.
By any measure, Taiwan is a sovereign nation and the notion that it some how “mystically” belongs to the serving Mainland government is pure whimsy. By this measure, countries all across the planet have purchase on others lands because sometime in the past they had some kind of dominion over it.
Via this logic – Britain still belongs to Italy because of the Romans…. it’s just pure nonsense.
Johnny Mnemonic
@Reason:
Perhaps I might add in much the same way that the people in the Falkland Islands accept Britain as the sovereign state, the people in Taiwan have the right to decide what government they want. It is the same with Ireland. To force people to accept a particular nationality is tyranny.
I am not at all saying that if you live in the UK and you don’t want to be British, that you have a right not to be British (and likewise with being American). You can either be deported, lose your rights and/or become stateless.
In the case of some individual declaring they no longer belong to a particular nationality, such thinking doesn’t make sense because there is already a formally established authority and jurisdiction over the piece of land on which they are standing, one which the majority of his/her neighbours acknowledge. It is only when your neighbours start agreeing with you that you have a right to oppose the state.
But in the case of Taiwan, the PRC has no authority over the people in Taiwan. In Taiwan it is the ROC that is the established authority. Treason and sedition is not rebellion against one’s nationality, but armed opposition to a formally established authority.
I can commit sedition against the Commonwealth of Australia, but not “Australia.” You can’t actually commit treason or sedition against a country, only its laws and political system. When you violate its laws and its constitution, you violate something that may or may not have been designed to protect the people under them. If the Constitution and laws of a country are fair, then you violate something good. If they are not fair, then maybe you have a good reason to break them.
For someone like me who lives in a liberal, secular democracy, nationality or country doesn’t matter. I want good laws. I want good governance and accountable government. If I do decide to fight for my “country,” it is to fight to defend something good, to defend good laws. That is what I consider honourable.
2111
Short of de jure independence, status quo is de facto independence.
Aogin
Auspicious greetings to Taiwan. May Taiwan ROC prosper and last for a thousand years.
Varun
Futile suggestions from the author.
Firstly, USA is NOT legally bound to assist Taiwan “militarily” in a hot-war with China, 1979 agreement doesn’t mention that, so US can walk away anytime it likes.
Secondly, the agreement calls for US to supply Taiwan with military hardware so as to keep a balanced technological level.
This is unsustainable.
China spends more on military and will continue to do so, Taiwan cant spare $$ for high-tech specific military hardware which will be more and more expensive in the future and US wont sell for free.
About the author’s comment “China should have no doubt that an armed attack on Taiwan would result in significant losses to the Mainland. ”
It is really a nothing statement and immaterial.
If and when China launches a Hot-war campaign, it won’t stop until it has captured Taiwan EVEN IF it means it suffers millions of death and I’d say trillions of $$ in losses, Once it launches an attack failure would be too great to accept and not an option to begin with.
23 million people have a voice but its not so great that the US & China relationship needs to be defined by these 23 million people’s view in the face of billions on both sides.
Taiwan issue is finished, US needs an exit strategy for its own good and the worlds.
John Chan
Here, here, what a common sense and down to earth analysis.
nirvana
I just want to show that, using your “facts”, another interpretation is equally plausible:
>>the agreement calls for US … to keep a balanced technological level.
Therefore, if the US does not seek anymore technology balance across the straight, it means it wants China to know it IS PREPARED TO INTERVENE ITSELF.
>>China spends more on military and will continue to do so.
Therefore, the US generals can tell US Congress it has confirmation that China plans to invade Taiwan.
>>If and when China launches a Hot-war … failure is not an option.
The US generals will add: Thanks to us, this invasion has not occured yet.
>>23 millions people have a voice but its not so great that the US & China relationship needs to be defined by these.
Vice-versa. US Congress should note: These 23 millions people count for nothing to China government. Minority opinion is not taken into account in China.
So what do we end up with? A cat and mouse “unrestricted warfare”, A “China Dream” against a US “Leadrerhip”, a MAD nerves testing and an arms race to the delight of BOTH defense industries. Until a third party gets in the fray. Welcome back Cold War.
richard
Oh yes…….and Obama can start reprinting more usa dollars so america can pay the salaries of all these military dreamers and weaponry, and one day they will all wake up and wonder why they are living the lifestyle of a third world country, poor and miserable as hell, maybe sharing the bed with N Korea.
Leonard R.
Modest suggestion: The US should give resident visas to Taiwanese who are likely to be harmed by a communist takeover. UK and Canada have benefitted much from the money and skills of HK expats.
These people are very productive and well-educated.
SCdad07
@L.R. – “The US should give resident visas to Taiwanese who are likely to be harmed by a communist takeover. UK and Canada have benefitted much from the money and skills of HK expats.”
Why Canada & UK not accepting ‘all likely’ from Taiwan?
Yes – US welcomes everyone with US$500,000 or more. Otherwise, get yourself tuned to current republican debate(s) in US?
Leonard – My advice to you is take your recommendation to your Japan’s friend, who is facing an aging issue.
SCdad07
Since Japan and Dutch colonized and ruled Taiwan for some years, they should accept with open arms to ‘the ones’ who would join their country.
To Japan and Netherlands, Please do a DNA test to identify your blood citizens.
Rex
Good point, and perhaps even Japan could do the same, after all, Formosa use to be a Japanese colony and many decedents are still living in Japan.
John Chan
People like Leonard R. as friend who needs enemy. Leonard is helping China to rein in Taiwan without firing a shot. Every Taiwanese dream is go to USA and have a green card. If Leonard’s suggest is accepted by the USA, there would be no one left in Taiwan to stop mainlanders from walking into Taiwan (not fighting), But UK, Canada, and AUS need not worry, because Taiwanese want to go to USA only, Taiwanese consider that UK, Canada and AUS are below par.
Perhaps Leonard is a cloaked CCP member, he is suggesting something seems good for the USA, but actually it is to break a major link of first island chain that is the front line containing China.
Cam
@John Chan- you forgot to mention that every Chinese mainland dream is to go live in the US (the UK/Western European included) and have a green card. Everyone knows this and don’t tell me that China is a paradise for workering classes as the CCP is boastful. Hahaha, what a joke!!!!
ozivan
@Cam. For once, you are right. Not only thousands, but millions, of mainland Chinese and the overseas Chinese in South East Asia want to live in US, Canada & Australia (not so much UK).
If only those countries would make it easy for them to gain the green card or the permanent residence. Then there will be hundreds, if not thousands, of little Chinese colonies in the cities of US, Canada & Australia. Don’t be mistaken, China/CCP may actually want that to happen.
It should be known as ” Colonisation In Reverse ”
If only, dear Cam could command those countries to admit the Chinese..sigh.
yang zi
“Taiwan celebrates is centennial on October 10″
this is the centennial of modern Chinese revolution. it is celebrated by both sides of Taiwan strait
Vicy
If you mainlanders want to celebrate this xin hai revolution, then lose your Communist Fascist thoughts and embrace real three principles of the people, it is no difference than your Marxism thoughts except is adds a protection against the abuse of power. Like what the CCP is doing right now.
American
To say “centennial of Taiwan” is incorrect.
100 years ago, at the time of the Xin Hai revolution, when the founding of the Republic of China occurred, the island named “Taiwan” was under japanese rule.
The Republic of China has been seated in Taipei since the communist party’s takeover of mainland China in 1949. In fact the United Nations and the United States recognized this government (RoC) as the representative of all of China for decades after this event (The RoC being a SC council member and a founding member of the UN!).
This lasted until communist pressure forced the US and UN (where US had annually vetoed previously ) to switch recognition to the PRC.
Happy 65th year under Republic of China government, Taiwan!
Happy 100th, Republic of China!
SCdad07
Taiwan – Dutch took it over 1642. Ming general Koxinga (Zheng Cheng-gong) defeated the Dutch 1662 and established a base to counter Qing dynasty. Qing integrated Taiwan in 1683 after Zheng’s death.
Fist sino-Japanese war in 1895, Japan took over Taiwan. Japan used it as an agricultural base and major food supply source.
KMT (Chiang Kai-Shek’s party) withdrew to Taiwan in 1949 after Japan’s defeat and territorial renouncement.
Taiwan’s former president, Lee Teng-Hui, was recruited, trained and ready to be part of the Japanese force, only when, then, Japan surrendered.
Boris
Have to say if it’s possible to reunification, better under Republic of China, not People’s Republic of China, where people is nothing but slave to be milked by CCP, after decades of blaming and denouncing, mainland Chinese is more apt to cast a vote to KMT over these malaka CCP, a great achievement of propaganda organ of CCP.
Varun
Boris, you do understand that how absurd you fantasy is, right?
1.3 billion people agreeing to be swallowed up by 23 million?
CCP might be evil,bogeyman, with bad juju,etc,etc….still, majority if not all of those 1.3 billion want to see reunification.
It will be THE greatest human achievement if a society of 23 million can basically conquer, politically, another society 50 times their size.
Wont happen.
Sooner or later China will be re-unified just as Korea will be.
Might take 100 years but it will happen.
Boris
Absurd, yes, this is the idea when talk about the chance CCP win KMT at the beginning of Chinese Civil War shortly after WWII. History has it’s own answer,despite people think absurd or not. Chinese history are full of fantasy, but if you carefully look into it, everything has a rational answer. Amazing, right?
John Chan
@Boris:
Whether it is united under ROC or PRC, it is China’s internal affairs; it is none of the non-Chinese business.
Russian, American and European are the slaves of their Bankers. Mainlanders’ memory about KMT was not pretty, that’s why KMT was kicked out of mainland at the first place. Even nowadays Taiwan’s democracy is a farce of factional petty politics. Taiwanese vision can’t even match a small nation like Israel. Taiwanese cannot elevate themselves beyond the lackey of USA and Japan. To compete USA on the international stage, only mainland Chinese can do the job, not the small mindedness Taiwanese.
Terry Yip
@John Chan, China should respect the wishes of Taiwanese people. Taiwan is noboby’s lackey, Taiwan only wishes for the independence of its over 23 millions citizens. Taiwan had to rely on the USA and Japan’s helps because of CPP’s threats.
Can China just grow up and accepting the simple facts that, the Chinese moved to America and have become Americans (like Gary Locke)? Chinese moved to Vietnam became Vietnamese and the Chinese moved to Taiwan have become Taiwanese?
People like you and some of China’s CCP memebers would never want peace in the World. Always using all kind of execuses for killing and fighting.
John Chan
@Terry Yip:
Citizens relying on foreign country to gain independence is committing treason. It is a universal rule. People committing treason are traitors. All nations do not treat treason and traitors kindly. Taiwan is an integral part of China; Taiwanese are Chinese.
By saying “Taiwan only wishes for the independence of its over 23 millions citizens. Taiwan had to rely on the USA and Japan’s helps”, it is equivalent to admitting treason in public.
Johnny Mnemonic
@John Chan:
(It’s somewhat intriguing when I see someone on the Internet with the same “real name” as me…..) I have to disagree. You can’t commit treason against a “country.” You can only commit treason against an established government.
If you seek independence from a larger country, that isn’t treason if you already have an established government in place. To think it is treason is to fall back on 19th century colonial attitudes. Governments are more important than nationality. What’s a country without a government? What good is it to be proud of a country where the government treats people badly?