Beijing’s submarine fleet is not as big or powerful as US military planners once feared. Have its blue-water ambitions been overstated?
It was the US Navy’s biggest jolt in years. On October 26, 2006, a Chinese Song-class attack submarine quietly surfaced within nine miles of the aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk as the 80,000-ton-diplacement vessel sailed on a training exercise in the East China Sea between Japan and Taiwan.
The Song-class vessel, displacing 2,200 tons, was close enough to hit the Kitty Hawk with one of its 18 homing torpedoes. None of the carrier’s roughly dozen escorting warships detected the Song until it breached the surface.
The Song’s provocative appearance was, for the Americans, ‘as big a shock as the Russians launching Sputnik,’ one NATO official told Britain’s Daily Mail newspaper, referring to the Soviet Union’s launch of the first-ever space satellite in 1957. ‘This could well have escalated into something that was very unforeseen,’ said Adm. Bill Fallon, then commander of US Pacific forces.
The incident underscored the then explosive growth of the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s undersea force, as well as Beijing’s apparent intention to wrestle the Western Pacific away from the once-dominant US Navy. ‘The Chinese are building a credible submarine force which will make it very difficult for the US Navy to maintain sea control dominance in or near coastal waters off of China,’ warned Rear Adm. Hank McKinney, former commander of the US Pacific Fleet’s submarine force.
Of particular concern to American defence officials was the projected introduction, over the coming decade, of up to 20 new nuclear-powered attack submarines, known as ‘SSNs,’ that are an order of magnitude more capable than the Song class. ‘The acquisition of increasing numbers of SSNs would give it (the PLAN) the ability to contest US naval forces farther from China’s shores,’ Thomas Mahnken wrote in China's Future Nuclear Submarine Force, edited by Naval War College professor Andrew Erickson and published in 2007.
Yet nearly five years later, McKinney’s and Mahnken’s alarm has been proved false. The PLAN still possesses a tiny number of nuclear-powered submarines. The Songs and other short-range diesel boats remain the backbone of China’s undersea force. Beijing’s production of new submarines has declined andthe PLAN’s overall undersea fleet is likely to contract in coming years. ‘I don't think they know whether they want to make the full-up commitment it would take to do this (submarine) thing right,’ Owen Cote, Jr., an analyst at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, says of the Chinese.
Meanwhile, the US Navy and its Pacific allies have crafted plans to stabilize or even grow their own submarine fleets. In 2006, Western observers feared the undersea balance of power in the Pacific would tilt. In a sense, they were right. It has tilted – back towards the United States and its allies.
How that happened speaks volumes about China’s evolution as a regional power.
Crunching the Numbers
In early 2011, the PLAN possessed ‘more than 60 submarines,’ according to the Pentagon’s Congressionally-mandated annual report on Chinese military capabilities.
That force included five nuclear-powered attack submarines: three of the 1980s-vintage Type 091 Han-class SSNs that are rapidly reaching the ends of their service lives, plus two Type 093 Shang-class boats. The next-generation Type 095 SSN is due to enter service around 2015, according to Pentagon estimates.
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major lowen gil marquez, phil army
By surfacing the communist Chinese submarine more or less 9 miles is no big deal, we do not no really the whole situation, its the words of the communist they surface without the knowledge of the officers and man of USS kity Kitty Hawk? how about the strategic secret of the US Navy fleet officer? we should also think of that not only on the hallucinated propaganda of the communist Chinese…
Ten
Not chinese propoganda, if anything the U.S. spits out propoganda then anyone else in the world. Everything you see on the media of China is a lie. Firstly the Chinese are not all the way communist, yes they have a communist party but they are no fully communists. Secondly the Chinese are not dumb, they were smart enough to record their history longer than anyone else so that they can learn from their mistakes, Something the U.S. has not done. And thirdly China's rising military power is not a threat because they only want to defend their land. People have attacked and abused China long enough as it is. If the Chinese were really dedicated to offense, they would be near victory already. They are a dedicated and proud poeple. Their culture keeps them together, not religion. Their actions match up to their bark, unlike politics, and their people are hard working at developing a better life for their generation. It would'nt be surprising if China spread further into other's land due to harrasment and racial steryotypes about them.
JC
china have a big backyard,and still getting bigger by invading some ones backyard too.too greedy
kplorla
one thing the west overlook about china is that they don’t like to show off but they always want to prove a point that if war broke out today they would be able to defend themselves against any force at their backyard and they have the capability to do it so those who are hoping that it does should be warn. because it would be disastrous for any country to get involved.
AL
Did anyone ever stop to think that possibly the reason why Chinese submarines do
not often go out on patrol is to lengthen their service life. If the Chinese have
a date in mind in which to attack a larger superpower, that benefit would leave them with a larger quantity of operable subs when that time comes. Since the Chinese lack the exquisite technology the United States can employ, any slight advantage in numbers would help even the odds in a coastal theater.
J.A.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-492804/The-uninvited-guest-Chinese-sub-pops-middle-U-S-Navy-exercise-leaving-military-chiefs-red-faced.html
Just an idea and something we’ve been discussing within our group but perhaps the Chinese are intentionally misleading US assets in the region. After all, it’s not that hard to make a sub noisy through cavitation and other means.
This wouldn’t be the first time US assets thought one thing only to be surprised with something completely different.
Chintan
Yeah. This grenade halncuer is actually muzzle-loaded and fires caseless 40mm grenades. The only thing it has in common to the M203, is the fact, that it’s designed to be mounted on a rifle. Try to gain some knowledge before you start smearing crap on people.
Frank
“China isn’t building a world-class, globally-deploying submarine force. It’s building a mostly defensive, regional undersea force – and a smaller one than once predicted.”
Very true statement.
Mike China
The problem with China’s navy is it can hit back if attacked. That is something
US forces are not accustomed to .An analysis of wars involving US forces since WW2 shows that major US bases were safe /immune to attack.
However in any conflict involving PLA and US forces the ability of the former to attack is growing significantly.No matter what the US does it cannot escape unscathed if it chose to attack China.
The US has an assured destruction capability with regard to China.The Chinese don’t have a 100% of the capability. They need not aspire for that.The ability to wreak enormous havoc on US interests will serve that purpose.You never know.
The PLA could significantly improve their weapons to deter the US,if that is required.
MO
It’s the completeness of the threat as illustrated by your point. Deny us operationally, we intervene at our own peril… with global implications, impacting international norms and upsetting our influence in the region for years to come…