With speculation intensifying over whether Israel is planning to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, it’s worth remembering that it’s the U.S. that will have the ultimate say.
If you want to know whether Israel is about to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities then you’d be better served looking at Iran-related policy and statements emanating from Washington DC than speculative reports from the Israeli press.
The possibility of an Israeli strike has been thrust into the spotlight again following reports in the Israeli media speculating that an agreement has been reached between Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Prime Minister Netanyahu to take the military option against Iran’s facilities. Although these reports were later denied by Barak, new reports quickly emerged that Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman had also been convinced to back a military strike. Meanwhile, other members of the security cabinet, including Interior Minister Eli Yishai, are reported to be undecided and “losing sleep” over this matter.
The fact that Israel tested a new missile in the midst of all this added credibility to speculation that something could be afoot, especially with reports emerging that the Israeli Air Force recently took part in a joint NATO exercise focused on practicing long-range attacks.
Still, regardless of whether Netanyahu and Barak really do intend to attack Iran, it’s exceedingly unlikely Israel’s leaders, as hawkish as they may be, would attack Iran without U.S. permission. The Israeli government may feel comfortable challenging the United States over the issue of settlements, but striking Iran is a very different matter.
It wouldn’t matter who is in charge at the White House and how pro-Israel they may or may not be – a unilateral Israeli attack on Iran, without U.S. consent, would likely have severe consequences for Israel-U.S. relations. After all, the building of settlements doesn’t directly risk American lives and the U.S. economy. Attacking Iran without U.S. permission could and would.
For a start, the United States still has troops in Iraq and in Afghanistan, and any unilateral attack by the government of Israel against Iran could put the lives of U.S. soldiers there in jeopardy of Iranian retaliation. It could also create a massive spike in oil prices, something which could have severe consequences for an already struggling U.S. economy. To take such action without securing U.S. approval would risk undermining American interests in an unprecedented way, a reality that successive Israeli governments have been fully aware of.
Israel’s leaders have, of course, continued to threaten Iran’s nuclear program, stating that “all options remain on the table.” But such rhetoric masks an extreme pragmatism on Israel-U.S. ties over issues as serious as Iran, not least because of the $3 billion in aid that Israel receives from the United States, as well as the support of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. A unilateral attack without U.S. consent could put both at risk.
Some have suggested that Barack Obama, standing for reelection in 2012, has his hands tied as he needs both the Jewish and Evangelical vote. But this in no way guarantees support for a unilateral strike – the sight of U.S. casualties and a massive jump in oil prices following an Israeli attack would also infuriate Republicans if U.S. permission hadn’t been granted.
But it’s not only the risk to ties with the United States that’s likely to make Israel think twice about going it alone. The reported opposition to an attack against Iran by influential figures like Meir Dagan, the former head of Mossad, means that going ahead anyway would pose extreme political risks to Netanyahu and Barak should anything go wrong.
The fact is that when it comes to Iran, Israel has never had it better.
Thanks to the Arab Spring and Obama's successful dual track strategy of diplomacy and sanctions, Iran has never been so isolated. Combine that with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's provocative denial of the holocaust and the regime's venomous attacks against Israel's right to exist, and you are left with a world that has never stood so steadfastly with Israel against the Iranian regime (in contrast Israeli leaders can only dream of such support over the Palestinian issue).
For now, Israel is likely to continue with its strategy of pressuring Iran to return to the negotiation table with a serious offer.
Of course there’s still the matter of the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency's report, which is due out next week and which could have a profound impact on Obama's approach toward Iran. Indeed, there is speculation that the new report could present fresh evidence of a possible Iranian nuclear weapons program.
If it does, then all eyes will be on Obama's reaction to such an important development. After all, when it comes to whether to strike Iran, the final word will be with the president of the United States, and no one else. And for now, at least, he doesn’t seem interested in backing a military strike.
Photo Credit: White House
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Major Lowen Gil Marquez, Phil Army
Pakistan in 1972 were able to build nuclear reactor and advance enriched uranium thru Dr Adul Qadeer Khan a Pakistani working in Amsterdam URENCO owned by British and German, even that nuclear building were constructed in Capital of Pakistan and under the eye of CIA and m16 they were not able to stop by the West because of the importance of Pakistan as staging point to counter the Russians in Afghanistan by the US, this they made to have a deal not to use it military hardware, in Iran it can may be have their Nuclear power plant for civilian purpose only if it is viable thru series of analysis and evaluation of the project. .
rod starns
threatening to attack other countries is war mongering and it does not lead to peace and stability.the only option the iranians have is to threaten retaliation.
Kom
From my point of view, there would not be a military strike against Iran because there is worldwide news about speculating to do so. If there is a real plan to do that, we ordinary people wouldn’t have a clue. In other words, why would you want to alert your opponent/enemy to be ready?
As an ordinary person on this Earth, I wish Iran, Israel, & any others can coexist in harmony. Peace…
Chriss
i think iran has a legitimate right to pursue its nuclear programme as long as it is for peaceful purpose. develpoing a nuclear capability for use against mankind or against any country driven solely for the purpose of supporting a religious ideology or to change the balance of power is reach to a disasterous consequence for the rest of the world with prices rising beyond the income ability, heitened state of mutual distrust, will only spiral down the world economy n will lead us all to stone age. what we can achieve diplomatically that we must, failure of diplomacy is the failure of the world as such….
i sincerely hope both israel and iran’s decision will not be based on impulsed perceptive failure but a rational process which sees into the future of israel as a nation and the stability of middle east for the world.
catherine crawford
Iran has only moments left.