Kim Jong-il’s regime seems to respond better to the carrot than the stick. The United States and others could try walking in Kim’s shoes as they look to reduce tensions.
U.S. and South Korean officials looking for a way out of the many years of stalemate and tension on the Korean Peninsula might do well to look at the situation from North Korea’s perspective. If they are able to do so, they may be able to find new ways to reduce tensions and bring about a less tense security situation. History suggests a possible path to doing so.
When standing in Kim Jong-il’s shoes, a vastly different security landscape – one riddled with problems – becomes evident. Certainly, Kim doesn’t see himself as an evil rouge state leader, but rather as the legitimate head of North Korea, striving for regime survival in the best interests of the nation and against all the odds.
From his and his generals’ standpoint, to adopt a placid policy stance and refrain from action against perceived antagonism, as in the case of the Yeonpyeong shelling incident last year, where South Korea allegedly fired into disputed North Korean waters, would be to hasten the regime’s demise by appearing weak. A face saving solution must therefore be offered to Pyongyang, one that could result in a peaceful resolution of the current standoff.
Certainly, there are examples in the past where a flexible approach to North Korea, one that allowed it to save face, has paid off. Following the country’s first nuclear test, in 2006, it was decided during the Six Party denuclearization talks in February 2007 that Pyongyang would accept fuel aid, while the U.S. moved towards normalized relations in exchange for the disablement of the former’s nuclear reactor and the re-admission of previously expelled International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors.
Progress seemed to come quickly. The United States arranged the release in June 2007 of nearly $25 million of frozen North Korean money. In return, Pyongyang shut down its Yongbyon nuclear reactor after receiving 6,200 tons of South Korean fuel aid. Following this, a 7,500 ton shipment of fuel was sent from South Korea after the IAEA confirmed the shutdown of the reactor on July 16, 2007.
Pyongyang then reciprocated by surrendering approximately 18,000 documents concerning its nuclear program to the U.S. State Department. In May 2008, it submitted a declaration about its nuclear capabilities to the chairman of the Six Party talks, and in June it demolished a cooling tower at the Yongbyon nuclear reactor. In response, the United States’ quid pro quo was the removal in October of North Korea from its State Sponsors of Terrorism list.
Sadly, this virtuous cycle of more than two years came to an end after Pyongyang was condemned by the UN Security Council following the test of a suspected intercontinental ballistic missile on April 5, 2009.
One thing of note, though, is the absence of South Korea-North Korea conflict or military exchanges during this 2007 -2009 period, which stands in stark contrast to the 2009 – 2011 period in which the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong incidents took place.
Past evidence suggests Kim and his advisors respond better to carrots than sticks. North Korea’s desire for external recognition, concrete aid and security guarantees were all either explicitly or implicitly given to North Korea in some form or other in the past. Pyongyang then reciprocated with significant progress in denuclearization and the toning down of its rhetoric. A clear pattern therefore emerges that could form the basis of future progress in solving the stalemate on the Korean Peninsula.
With all this in mind, it might be reasonable to conclude that the only sensible path forward in dealing with North Korea would be to be open to what Pyongyang really wants in negotiations, be firm in what is expected of the North Koreans, and seek China’s help as North Korea’s only real ally to exert firm but subtle pressure in order to improve the country’s receptiveness to any new offers that are placed on the table.
Nah Liang Tuang is an Associate Research Fellow at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies, a constituent unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.
Photo Credit: Yeowatzup
Reddit
Digg
StumbleUpon
Delicious
Technorati
Yahoo
Google
Plurk
kurtm
Any country that delibertly starves, imprisons and lies to it's people is bad. Kim and his family before him are just despots. The problem with carrots is that they have allowed North Korea to develop nuclear weapons. I have spent a significant amount of time in China and the people in the cities at least are beginning to have a pretty good life. If you don't act nutty you never have problems with the police. I spent a night on a train filled with police and soldiers with my brother in law and they were complaining about different aspects of their government. Nothing happened. China does not want war. They have gotten a taste of having the basic necessities and more and like it. For all the problems America has and it has many, it is the only country on earth where 1000's of nationalities live together in relative peace.No one is coming to get us and most of us do not think America is the best place in the world. It is just a good place to live and we can even at times change our govrnment"s policies when they are bad. North Korea is a blight on humanity just as other countries run by despots. The world should do everything short of war to bring it down. More carrots mean more nukes for North Korea and other countries with despots (Iran)./
Brian from Chicago
"Sadly, this virtuous cycle of more than two years came to an end after Pyongyang was condemned by the UN Security Council following the test of a suspected intercontinental ballistic missile on April 5, 2009."
Am I reading this right? Does the author actually lament that the UN Security Council broke this virtuous cycle by condemning intercontinental ballistic missile testing? It would seem that the missle test broke the cycle, as virtuous as it was up until that event.
Chris Klay
I would say the best tactic for the US against North Korea is to simply ignore them. Kim is crazy for power and recognition, he feels that the whole world should be watching and listening to everything he does, all to the detriment of his people. Whenever he feels he is being ignored he whines and yells like a small child (or tests a new missile) until like reluctant parents, the world is bullied into taking him seriously.
So what is the most effective way of dealing with a child? You shouldn’t beat them harshly, they will only resent you more, you can’t give them what they want, or they will keep throwing tantrums. No, the best course is to send them to their room until they stop misbehaving and then let them out when they are ready to act civilized.
If the US, China, Japan, and SK can agree to isolate NK, Kim will either be humbled, or more likely, his people will stop worshipping him like a god when he can’t keep them fed or clothed and his regime will crumble. I know this could cause trouble for China, but in the long run it would be better for them. NKs aggression and Kim’s craziness are what keeps Japan and SK firmly on the side of the US, they don’t like having US bases on their land, but will continue to do so until the NK problem is solved.
Jung
This article demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of the North Korean regime. Putting on “kid gloves” when handling North Korea only emboldens them.
Alex
Who the hell are you to "handle" other people! Mind your own business!
K Ballard
Saving face is beyond what the North Korean leadership can expect from their own people when the truth of their many failures is exposed. Constant control of all media and communication in North Korea has left North Koreans with a world view so distorted that when the truth leaks in, there may be an explosion. It is almost in the North Korean leadership’s best interest to keep the populace starved and weak while feeding the military so that they may more easily keep control. Greater contact with the world – not through South Korea or the US – but through the large Korean population in China will slowly put the lie to the all the lies; the only thing the North Korean leadership has been feeding its people.
Anon
Erm… wouldn’t North Korea’s testing of a suspected ICBM be precisely the reason the carrot was deemed ineffective? He had never stopped research related to nuclear weapons.
Giving a carrot is fine, but peace is 2 way. The US and South Korea cannot be the only ones that think of Kim Jung Il’s circumstances, he must reciprocate by thinking of the US and S. Korea’s circumstances. North Korea is the one facing food shortages here, not South Korea or the US.
Nick
Wow. 60 Years later they finally learn how to see things from the other side. Congratulations!
Yang zi
It is the wishful thinking. US strategy is to strangle
N. Korea to collapse. With Kim ii’s bad health, this strategy might work.
With some amateurs predicting war between US and China, I will try to do a mini lecture :)
Since China dont want a war with US, the only possibilty of war is US want to start it. But US will not because
1. US is not focusing in Asia, it is retreating, the new troops in Darwin is not new, it comes from
Okinawa. It is a withdraw from 1st island chain to 2nd or 3rd. ( I don’t like the concept of these chains, it is further anyway)
2. Obama’s Asia trip is his mission accomplished moment. TPP is a wishful thinking that will not work.
3. ASEAN China trade is passing by US quickly. It will reach $500b annually in a few years.
4. China,Japan & S.korea free trade will happen in a couple of years.
5. Chinese DF-41 road mobile ICBM will be in service with large numbers (I hope)
6. Chinese own effort in hypersonic weapons could emerge within 10 years.
7. US navy and its billions investment is highly vulnerable to future hypersonic weapons from
China and India.
8. Having a base near your big power enemy is so last century, it is costly and it is a target.
9. America may lose the military edge against quickly. Why? vested interests. Expensive Navy, Expensive fighters, 700 overseas bases and huge personnel cost. These are things powerless against China. With a single cost of F35 or F22, China can make 1000 mix of fake and real radars, 1000 defense missiles or air missiles.
10. China may suffer more casualities, but China will win a land war over US on Chinese soil.
Above is my over optimistic and nationalistic view, the main purpose is to scare chicken hawks and chickens hiding behind hawks. But really, China’s resolve to defend itself shouldnt be underestimated. i welcome any counter arguments.
Mlouisa70394
Yang Zi, I think the thing you forgot to mention is that the Chinese government’s worst enemy is the government itself. I really do believe that their corruption and horrible policies will do them in. In addition, the reason for China’s big army is to protect the government from the Chinese people who are increasingly becoming infuritated with the government. The Chinese government pretends that all is well domestically, but you and I and the world know how messed up Chinese society is: no real justice, poor food quality, bad air quality, no freedom of speech unless you hide in microblogs, etc. China’s policies on Tibet and Xinjiang basically treat these minorities as slaves. Ask yourself – does China have any true friends in the world? Do you think business ties with other countries make China appear friendly? I don’t think so – there is a reason why China’s neighbors are trying to move away from China’s sphere.
John Chan
@Mlouisa70394,
I might consider your comment reasonable if you didn’t reveal your true bashing nature with your exaggerated stories about Tibet and Xingjiang in you comment. The social problems in whole China including Tibet and XingJiang will not be worse than the problems in Japan, India, USA, Europe, and in fact all over the world. The racial problem is way severe in Japan, Korea, USA, India, Europe, etc. than in China. In the Westpac they not only have street level racial discrimination they also have structural racial discrimination that China does not have.
In France you need to attach photo on resume, so the French can carry out their racial discrimination gracefully. Although anti-racial discrimination noise in USA is very loud, but comparing to Europe, Japan and Korea, USA’s racial discrimination is rather amateurish. India’s caste system is the worst, it discriminates human being by birth.
You are naïve linking business tie to national relationship. Thru the history, trade can bring wealth, but it also attracts unwanted attention; when the nomads could not get what they want thru trade, they would get it thru violence. It happened in Asia as well as in Europe repeatedly; and in matter of fact, it is probably going to happen again soon. Westpac is the nomad again this time just like 200 years ago.
Tum
Yang zi, you are living in a world filled with worst case scenarios. This is not the nature of things: long before the worst case scenario, chains of events push people to stabalise the situation long before any of the points you bring up come to fruition.
Nah Liang makes a good point: basing future negotiation techniques on past experience is an adaptive and highly effective negotiation technique. Those who utilise diplomacy effectively make gains at the expense of those who think they know better. The US has a long history of ‘my way or the highway’ negotiation strategies (with respect to both inter and intra country affairs), and it has served them very poorly. They have developed an over-reliance sheer size and power as negotiation tools, and have accomplished much less than if they’d been a little smarter in how they deal with countries.
To use Africa as an example: sure, the Americans have taken a great deal of resources through strong-arming and propping up local dictators – but it is short term gain for long term pain, as the local population responded very negatively – and have established thriving businesses agreements with eastern and south american companies instead. Had the Americans been a little smarter, then their businesses would have grown beyond the resources they sought to ‘take’ – for the benefit of both counties.
yang zi
@Tum, on US, I think it is doing very well.
Never before in the history, you see a country dominate like this. US has a combination of hard and soft tools. When hard tools doesn’t work, it uses soft tools wonderfully. US is still the thought and creativity leader of the world.
it can afford to wait on Kim.
Rich
Yang zi,
That’s possibly the worst analysis of the US-China relationship I’ve ever seen.
You need to reconsider everything you argued for which ‘followed’ from this premise:
“Since China dont want a war with US, the only possibilty of war is US want to start it.”
a_canadian_observer
“Since China dont want a war with US, the only possibilty of war is US want to start it.”
This is not sincere. china does want a war with the US. it’s just not confident enough to start the war. Have you not heard chinese generals advocating/talking about it?
meckjoo
Seriously?
Tony Picking
“Kim Jong-il’s regime seems to respond better to the carrot than the stick.”
So does a spoiled two year old brat throwing a temper tantrum to get his way, but that only leads to an even more spoiled two year old brat who knows that if he acts ugly enough, he’ll get his way.
I couldn’t disagree more strongly with the author on his approach to North Korea. Rewarding North Korea’s ugly behavior with carrots only emboldens Kim to act even uglier. Kim is nothing more than a cruel, overgrown spoiled brat, and the world needs to treat him like one when he misbehaves.
Ales
Tony,
You are a typical American; anybody who does not accept American hegemony is bad: China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, Syria, Venezuela, etc. etc. You know no History, speak no foreign language, do not travel abroad. You hates all you do not understand; don’t expect any decent reason from you. Just hate.
You keep pretending they are asking you this and that. They don’t, they are just playing you. You just can’t understand that not ALL people are for sale, like you! They spit on your alms you always promise and never deliver. They are real, proud, and determined. And they are playing with you, mock you behind you back. But you are too arrogant to see it. You can’t stop them. They are beyond your reach. Yes China will isolate them; in your dreams!