The attack on the British Embassy in Iran was a troubling escalation. If the attack was ordered by the supreme leader’s son, it could be just the start.
The reaction to Tuesday’s storming of the British embassy in Tehran was swift. Within 24 hours, the British government had ordered the closure of Iran's embassy in London. Other EU countries joined in the condemnation, with countries including France, Germany and the Netherlands recalling their ambassadors, while Norway closed its embassy altogether.
Tuesday’s incident signifies a new level of hostility by the Iranian government against the West, and Britain in particular. The attack took place soon after the Iranian parliament decided to downgrade relations with the U.K. over new financial sanctions imposed by the British government against Iran. The sanctions incensed Iran because they hit the regime – and especially the many corrupt politicians who have held bank accounts in London for years – where it hurts. An estimated $1.6 billion worth of these accounts, believed by the opposition to belong to the family of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, were closed soon after the 2009 post-election crackdowns in Iran. Others were closed later, much to the fury of Iran's rulers. It’s likely that the new sanctions will put even more Iranian politicians out of pocket.
But it’s not just about the money – BBC Persian is another source of contention. The BBC's Persian language service has for years been the most credible source of news for many Iranians inside and outside the country. Even Ayatollah Khomeini listened to its programs before and immediately after coming to power in 1979. But the Iranian regime has been infuriated by reports about corruption and human rights abuses in Iran, especially since the 2009 elections, and has done everything in its power to stop its broadcasts, including jamming its satellite and arresting anyone who worked with the station inside Iran.
Yet while there are some clear potential motivations for the attack, a perhaps more interesting question is who was behind it.
On this question, it seems almost certain that the attack was sanctioned by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC). According to Iran's power structure, Khamenei gives the orders to the IRGC, which in turn controls the Basij militia that many analysts believe stormed the embassy. Basij members don't simply turn up to attack embassies on a whim – they need permission and operational parameters from the IRGC. They realize that crossing certain lines could mean severe punishment (possibly torture) and almost certainly the loss of their financial privileges, which for many are the main reason why they join in the first place.
Still, even if Khamenei ultimately gave the green light to the attacks, they showed a level of hostility that is unprecedented, even for the supreme leader. So, while it’s certainly possible that he has become even more hardline, there’s also another possibility that has generally been overlooked – has Khamenei, as part of a plan to groom his son Mojtaba as his successor, transferred some of his authority to his son? And if so, could this explain this dramatic escalation?
Photo Credit: Wikicommons / Americophile
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Chris
Even if the son comes to power-these types people usually value self preservation more than reckless adventures. We were able to deter Stalin armed with nuclear wepaons (albiet not easily). We should be able to deter a nuclear armed Mojtaba as well. I think this explains why the US and allies have been drifting towards a regional containment strategy. We can slow the Iranian nuclear weapons program… but not stop it. If we attack we might have some impact… but because there is no decisive outcome possible-we will be unable to stop a slow but steady spiral of violence. The cost to world economy will be catestrophic… and it may draw in powerful players. Even if Mojtaba comes to power and tries to muscle us-containment is the only way forward. Of course-getting the Israelis aboard is another matter.
ex-AWACr
Stalin was a sociopath, but not an apocalyptic religious fanatic. Whether Khamenei would be deterred by the same conditions that worked for Stalin in dubious. Also, your containment theory fails to address the possibility that Iran would act through a proxy such as al Qaeda or Hezb’Allah. By providing them with the weapon and letting them carry out the attack, Iran would (they hope) retain enough plausible deniability to escape retaliation.
DanfromNJ
That is a fascinating proposition. I never would have thought of it.
If you can get into the mind of the Ayatollah, it does make sense that he would be grooming his son.
Grant
He’s been trying for a while. The problem is that his son, much like Khamenei himself, lacks the religious credentials that the Supreme Leader requires and the nation’s religious leaders have been less than accommodating on that point. He might be able to get his son in anyway, but the legitimacy would be even weaker.
Avika
Presidents cvsoerne political capital by having Cabinet secretaries do the dirty work. The president’s job is to swoop in and take the credit when something good happens. It’s a routine at least as old as democracy, and probably older.
Brad
While I think that the succession speculation is a little pre-mature, the thought of this guy with nuclear weapons should scare any rational person.
Something has to be done about Iran before they get the bomb. That country is only going down hill from here.
Ez
The idea that we must attack Iran and “something has to be done” before they get 1 nuclear weapon scares me more – this would make them more likely to use such weapons. This approach clearly didn’t work for Iraq.
Meanwhile Western nations are bankrupt and the taxpayers are footing the bill…
scott
I seem to remember Isreal bombing an Iraqi nuclear plant that stopped Saddam from getting anything nuclear. If the Iraqi militants would stop blowing up their own power stations, power lines, oil pipe lines and such they would start having a better life in the current country. Makes no sense how they can complain they dont have power 24 hours a day and then turn around and blow up the sub-station for their own power. They are smart people, but then again I never have to go back so it does not concern me anymore.