The risk of a dangerous misunderstanding following the death of Kim Jong-il is real. The U.S. should propose secret talks with Beijing on how to move forward.
The death of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-il increases the likelihood that the stress on the multiple fault lines in Korean society will reach the point of breaking. Secret talks with China to plan for contingencies have long been overdue. They are needed now more than ever.
As many note, in the initial phase of the succession, the roughly 600,000 in the privileged North Korean elite can be expected to adhere to each other. The operating principle is the old phrase from Ben Franklin: all hang together, or all hang separately.
For the ordinary abused North Korean, the repression system will retard efforts to seize the opportunity for change presented by a new and untested leader. But as time passes, the fault lines can be expected to make themselves felt, and not improbably through violence.
There are huge generational issues. Can a twenty-something Kim Jong-un, a four star general in an army in which he has never served, impose his will on 80-year-old marshals? Will key army, party, and government officials be replaced by much younger associates of the new leader or will they resist?
There are obvious issues of competency. Will seasoned officials provide the advice Kim the third wants or the advice he needs? Will he accept it, or will it feed his suspicions? Will he continue his father’s legacy of anti-reform policies, or will he give greater scope to market forces?
There’s a family-based regency of Aunt Kim Kyong Hui and her husband Jang Sung Taek. Regencies have a troubled history in societies with strong Confucian influence, with power gravitating to one authoritative individual. There would be no need to illustrate this phenomenon to Chinese who know their history.
There are world record economic issues of poverty and mismanagement. The elites are rapidly becoming more knowledgeable about the outside world and their South Korean cousins and how they compare with the “workers’ paradise” in the North. They have the Internet, proliferating cell phones, and radios, all easily obtained through the pervasive corruption of the system. Increasingly, these new outlets are reaching ordinary citizens, as well.
The military must be conflicted. Senior officers were replaced shortly after Kim Jong-un was made a four star general. The air force and navy have been starved for resources and arms by policies to support the nuclear weapons program and the reluctance of China to make up for the shortfalls. Will there be a contest for control over the nuclear materials and weapons, or will we face the proliferation challenge of “loose nukes”?
Photo Credit: Matt Spurr
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Major Lowen Gil Marquez, Phil Army
The Chinese has so Manny characteristics in dealing their friends and enemies they were expert in the Art of War in there Political Warfare stratagem, it is in the game plan of their strategy how to deal in North and South Korea for the interest of China, look the history of Vietnam they support it before against the all democratic countries to push trough their communist thoughts in the universe to prevent the Domino effect of both Communist and Democracy, after the communist Vietnam have win and the Chinese do not need anymore the Vietnam and Chinese shifting to Cambodia pol-pot government of killing fields of Genocidal campaign and when the Vietnam do not want the unreasonable dictate of Chinese government, the Chinese invaded Vietnam, but the Chinese suffered thousand casualties in Vietnam militia. . .
We should not trust the communist thoughts in order to have a Universal Peace. .
John Chan
@Major Lowen Gil Marquez, Phil Army,
Vietnam is very ungrateful nation, despite China was poor and for the ideal of shaking off Western imperial yoke, China supplied materials and people to help Vietnamese became independent by kicking out their French colonial master, and defeated USA led Westpac imperialists invasion, yet Vietnam had let its hegemonic ambition misled it to attack all neighbours including the people, like Chinese, supported it at great costs during its struggles against western imperialist and its lackeys.
I would rather have faith in an ideal for equality instead of a political environment that adore decadent lives of their elites and political leaders, Filipinos adoring their ex-dictator’s wife to have 30,000 pairs of shores at the expenses of national treasury is an example of decadent political environment.
kkb
John Chan, you have really a ‘Big Han’ expensionism sperit: arogant and stupit, especially in 21st century. Open your mind then
gngottawa
To all the naysayers of secret talks, why would you want a repeat of the Cuban Missile Crisis? Both Kennedy and Krhuschev were plunged into the abyss without knowing what was motivating the other’s every move. Each public pronouncement, each canon fire from a ship, each action and reaction risked terrible consequences because they did not talk beforehand and lacked a presidential hotline. We skirted nuclear war then. Why risk it now?
ashleyhk
Leonard. So you would be willing to go to war with China if some uncontrollable NK military attacks? I think you overestimate China’s detailed control of NK. There have been too many occasions when the PRC influence has not been strong enough to prevent embarrasing, potentially deadly, actions by NK to make your suggestion sensible.
Yang Zi. Contingency plans and mutual assurances should be ongoing between the US and PRC . A few days of talks in the middle of a crisis would be inadequate. Nothing disloyal. Do you think the PRC should not recognise South Korea?
Best Regards to you both
yang zi
no need to be anxious or panic. The auther already indicated it would be a disloyal move to discuss N Koran’s demise by China. China already hurt N Korea enough by establishing diplomatic relations with S Korea.
China shouldnt have done that, it shouldnt do this now. When N Korea collapses, China and US have plenty of time to talk, a couple if days is enough to work out a solution.
China’s position on North Korea has hardened due to recent US moves in Asia. China is not willing to give up supporting N Korea yet.
ashleyhk
Maybe they are having secret talks but, because they are secret, we don’t know about them:)
David
I thought the same haha.
Leonard R.
I see no need for secret talks with the PRC.
A simple publicly-announced doctrine is all that is needed.
An attack on the US by Pyongyang will be viewed as an attack by Beijing.
And the US will respond against both.
That’s all that’s needed. Case closed.
jim1980
Leonard R. Since you are such tough guy on the internet, why don’t you just move to South Korea and ready to fight North Korea yourself since you feel so strong about the situation? I think that’s better solution than your stupid doctrine.
Leonard R.
Neither of the Koreas are worth one American life. I’ve said that before.
You don’t understand my position.
But it’s not hard to understand. An attack by Pyongyang on the US,(not on SK alone), should be viewed as an attack by Beijing. And the US should retaliate against both.
Clarity.
And thanks for the invite to live in South Korea. But I like where I live now.
Passerby
@Leonard R.
Try as you might by sounding totally unreasonable and warmongering, I actually have more faith in the often despised politicians in Washington and in the White House who can actually call the shot on military actions. Afterall, American military is controlled by politicians, Yes? Politicians may be corrupt but they are not nuts like you know who.
jim1980
I failed to understand your logic. When does China is responsible for action of North Korea? By the same logic, is US responsible for action of Israel or is US responsible for action of Pakistan since US is biggest supporters of those countries.
Furthermore, it is true that China is biggest supporter of North Korea as this moment. However, it was no long ago South Korea was biggest financial supporter of North Korea under sunshine policy. Before that, it was Russia. Are you say that you will bomb South Korea if North Korea attack US if and when South Korea decide to implement Sunshine policy again?
Richard Kimble
An old ageing lion, with hair dropping off is still talking tough, after been humbled in Iraq and Afghanistan.
No money for your pensions, no money for your civil servants, no money for your health care and infrastructure repairs and soup lines getting longer and longer and here we have people still brooding for war!
The end is neigh my friend…..won’t be long now before you have 100% inflation in the USA, year on year and your society will crumbles, simply because you people do not see the light of day and that is, instead of spending money on creating jobs, you are spending borrowed money on wars.
Tra la, la…..there just no hope for the USA.
BP
I quite agree that The US& China& SKorea should have some kind of serious talks about the NKorea’s future to avoid having any worst-case scenarios!As for the US’s economy, it’s very resilient and will recover soon; but China’s economy is quite different, it will collapse very soon! You better worry about it especially in this current global economic crisis!!
jim1980
@BP, you must read too many books from Gordon Chang. The last I checked that China is still growing 8% while US is growing 2%.
In reality, both US and China have economic problem. US is still in post bubble phrase of housing market. It is still at least another five years to go. Of course, there are incoming crisis for medicare and Social security crisis when baby boomer retired.
China has huge population and growing income cap issue. It also have similar issue in twenty years when large population of people retire and need better social safety net.
DownRedChina
US got out of Iraq and will be out of Afghanistan soon. So why not.
jim1980
@DownRedChina, I guess that you don’t hear that US is broke and it is owe billions of dollars to China. US will have to cut military budget in the future not increase. I know you hate China with your name tag, but the rest of us Americans hate to pay more military spending on stupid wars.
DownRedChina
I understand your concerns. I really do.
Wars are not good and none of us should start one.
However, CCP bullies smaller neighbors backed by its massive military. I am sure you’re aware of their 9 dotted map. It’s a joke! It’s unlawful.
You do not understand the CCP. CCP is very deceptive, greed and has hegemonic mindset. They are willing to let you piss at their face and wait to stab you at a later time. Do you know what happen if China takes South China Sea and US do nothing? China will invade US too and they will treat American like slaves. They think they own this world. That’s why they think they are middle kingdom.
I don’t think US would fight China alone. India, Japan, SK, Philippines, Vietnam and Australia are on US side.
Taking China down is US’s long term national security not only for the US but also for the world.
Tim Kimble
@Down Red China…….please go and see a shrink, you need help.
John Chan
@Leonard R.
In case of a conflict between USA and China, the biggest benefactors are India and Japan. Both USA and China should have a secret talk to pre-program 100 nuclear missiles each to lob at India and Japan before they open fire at each other.