Report: Japan Chooses F-35
Image Credit: U.S. Navy

Report: Japan Chooses F-35

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The Diplomat speaks with Joshua Walker, a fellow at the Truman National Security Foundation and Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund, about reports that Japan has selected the F-35 as its new next generation fighter aircraft.

News reports suggest that Japan has agreed to purchase the F-35 fighter from the United States. From a broad military standpoint, how much will this enhance Japan’s defensive capabilities? Is this move in anyway a counter to China’s roll-out last year of the J-20 fighter?

I think from a purely technical point of view, this deal is still very modest. However, symbolically this deal is quite important from a broader strategic focus. As the first major partner for the F-35, which is seen as the next generation cutting age fighter, it would allow Japan to have an edge over an ever-expanding and spending rival like China. It’s not necessarily a counter to the Chinese, because of the time involved and the numbers being discussed, but it broadens Japan’s strategic and technological horizons. More importantly it reinforces the U.S.-Japan alliance, which is absolutely central and critical to Japanese grand strategy in the Asia Pacific, particularly vis-a-vis China.

In your view, were there any key aspects of the F-35 that tipped the balance against the F-18 or the Euro-Fighter? Did any of the possible reports of possible building of components in Japan, as well as rumors of some technology sharing, play a role?

I’m actually not aware of the details here, but certainly the cost-sharing and reports of components being produced in country make a lot of sense and fit with the new, more assertive Japan.

How does the F-35 purchase enhance the U.S.-Japan alliance? Do you see opportunities of joint training and exercises with the aircraft? How does this plane enhance the Japanese Air Self-Defense Force in terms of its capabilities, missions it can conduct etc?

In terms of the U.S.-Japan alliance, I think here is where the F-35 will be the biggest deal. The fact that Japan was the first to sign on and the level of cooperation (joint exercises and training) this indicates with convergent technology is very important both strategically and symbolically.

The F-35 will be a major boon for the Japanese Air Force, which has seen more responsibility over the years as China’s actions have taken on more aggressive prisms as seen from Tokyo. The general mood in Tokyo is more hawkish, particularly in the bureaucracies that tend to matter more than any other areas, and this is one manifestation of that. Having the better quality fighter and technology is important for the Japanese psyche in an environment in which China’s overwhelming quantity continues to overwhelm many in the region.

Will other nations in the region respond to the move? Do you think this may lead other countries to consider the aircraft, such as South Korea? Could this lead to more fighter purchases in the region to keep up with Japan’s purchase?

I think from a business point of view, Japan’s decision makes the F-35 a more attractive option given the cost-sharing dimensions of such an expensive joint venture. I don’t think Japan buying a few more airplanes means others will try to keep up since again, when it comes to sheer quantity, it’s more about China as the regional hegemon and no longer Japan. However, in terms of alliance maintenance and symbolism, this deal could be the beginning of other countries, particularly like-minded democracies that are U.S. allies being more likely to select the F-35 over the other options out there.

However, Japan by itself won’t be consequential – it’s more how the private business side of things is able to use this announcement and how it will shape perceptions or strategic balances and re-alignment. In this regard, Obama’s visit to Asia and the announcement in Australia about the U.S. basing re-alignment that has been ongoing for some time, and which is now beginning to pick up some traction on [Capitol] Hill, will be very important and consequential. The model seems to be more burden-sharing with allies and smaller bases that are co-owned by host and American forces. This is very significant in terms of creating more of a trip-wire phenomenon where better/faster/stealthier planes like the F-35 would be a centerpiece.

So, if taken in combination with America’s basing re-alignment decision, Japan’s announcement of the F-35 would be very consequential.

There has been speculation India may also consider a purchase of the F-35. Do you see this as a possibility?

No, I really don't. I think India isn’t going to abandon the Euro-fighter project and at this point it only needs to have planes that are better than their rivals and not anything else. Therefore, other older models seem to serve the Indian Air Forces needs at this point. Having the best and being at the cutting edge isn’t a priority for India in the way it is for Japan is the general sense I get from my Indian colleagues. Now, there’s a possibility that a few years down the line, depending on how the F-35 turns out, they might be interested. But that goes back to larger strategic questions that will depend on things far beyond the purview of Tokyo’s recent announcement.

Comments
39
JJ
February 29, 2012 at 23:33

To Expert:

Before you start belitting Taiwan, let me update you on some stuff:

It is true that Japan is better overall than Taiwan in terms of technology, but note this:

1) Taiwan surpassed Japan in terms of IC fab capacity and is the leading chip maker in 2011.
2) Taiwan also surpassed Japan in LCD panel production.
3) Nothing to do with technology, but somewhat related, is that Taiwan surpassed Japan in GDP PPP and the gap will continue to widen, provided the new president doesn’t do anything retarded.

Japan had the advantage of being a democracy without fear of China invading and colonizing its ass (as with Taiwan, and come on, are Japanese really that stupid to think North Korea is strong enough to take on Japan? Compare North Korea’s strength with China’s for example). Taiwan was a single-party dictatorship for 50 years with the KMT making all the decisions, so free flow of information was not really a reality on the island. So, in terms of this aspect, Japan had a 50 year head-start, but Taiwan had already caught up and surpassed Japan in these three aspects in the last 20 years. As long as China or Taiwan doesn’t do anything radical, Taiwan’s technology will continue to improve and China will continue to raise its standard of living. I think the people in the west are underestimating Chinese people’s capability to innovate. The CCP has prevented free flow of information, but gradually the CCP will realize that it needs to do this to improve China’s overall living conditions and standards and keep up with the global economy and how the global economy revolves around innovation, and when that time comes, China will boom like how Taiwan did in the 70s and 80s, and even in the 90s somewhat, when it shot up from a poor nation to a nation that has a PPP which surpasses many European nations today and also is a leading innovator in technology.

Japan’s tendency of looking down on Taiwanese, Chinese, Koreans, etc. will vanish as East Asia continues to boom and eventually surpass Japan.

Loldongs
December 22, 2011 at 00:36

Lol guys,

You can’t equate F-35 and J-20, the former is 4th generation VLO technology, the J-20 is just a bad clunky copy that like the J-10 is utterly pathetic.

One example: The reason J-20 uses canards (terrible feature for LO/VLO) is because the Chinese don’t have the ability to redevelop the flight-control software from the J-10 (which is a 3rd generation aircraft).

Second example: The J-20 uses a clumsy blend of surfacing features from the F-22 and F-35, but as several VLO experts have pointed out, these are not complimentary systems (lol), i.e. the airframe itself is not necessarily inherently stealthy.

Third: The processes to make VLO coatings (RAM) are incredibly complex and on the american planes these are not strictly speaking wholly-passive.

Fourth: The PRC does everything it can to try and steal US technology where it can, and badly copies it, as with the SU-27 that China still can not manufacture properly (lol) they are still yet to be able to produce the engines themselves and have to rely on the Russians to do so.

Fifth: It is actually AESA/LPI/HPM as well as UCAV technology that is becoming important as well as Swarm management and distributed sensing, the PRC DOES know where it needs to go, the one thing I will say in favour is that in 20 years it will have caught up, it is putting enormous resources into copying western technology and it is getting better at it all the time, in the future things will be very different (there is rapid improvement) but to assert that this is imminent is just stupid, the fact that J-20 looks “stealthy” means absolutely nothing on a systems/avionics/VLO level it’s just a moderately LO-shaped airframe painted black, you are too easily impressed, your forces are semi-obsolete by western standards and hopefully that will remain so for at least a couple of decades.

Sixth: Chinese nationalism is cute but get real guys, you’re 10-20 years behind the west which is why you are so insecure, you have a huge ageing population and an economic bubble that is about to burst spectacularly. You have absolutely no human rights whatsoever, everything you are allowed to do is regulated and controlled by your government to a pathetic degree, in effect you are like children.

(Yes I have been all over the PRC so I have first-hand experience).

Bottom line, drop the posturing, you’re no match for Japan yet and you won’t be for quite some time, your navy is a joke (SSNs, carriers), as above, you are on the right tracks but a golden mile away from even what the Russians can do, let alone the US, you may hate them because of penis-envy but right now you are too pathetic even to attempt to invade the tiny island of Taiwan because you would be beaten so decisively. Drop the crap and deal with the bigger issues you face like the fact that you live in an oppressive dictatorship with a growing wealth gap, a vast gender imbalance, terrible human rights, terrible sanitation, terrible pollution, terrible environmental management, and terrible prospects for the immediate and longer term future if these things do not improve.

A nation that devotes as much resources as the PRC to poorly copying western (and russian) technology has no bragging rights, get over yourselves.

: D

Expert
December 18, 2011 at 18:17

Liang1a

> There are some 200 million to 300 million people from the rural areas working in the urban areas.

Since they are now living in the cities, they are urban residents. Screw that, even new college graduates make only 2,000 yuan in SHANGHAI(The most expensive to live place in China) due to high unemployment, so 2,500 yuan for Honda employees is a really really generous pay by Chinese standard.

> How many Chinese farmer do you think it will take to produce all the food China needs?

More than the current number of farmers. China in 2011 is a food importing nation.

> With mechanization it will only take less than 5% of the Chinese population to produce all the food China needs.

Then why is it not done when many of them are collective farms able to afford mechanization? Or what do you do with hundreds of millions of unemployed farmers when the mechanization takes place? More unemployed farmers into the job market will only lower Chinese wages, which has failed to keep up with the rafe of inflation.

> China is already producing all the food it needs.

Then why does China import millions of tons of wheat, corn and soy beans?

> China’s food output will surely increase per area of farm land.

Chairman Mao tried that in the 60s and the great famine followed.

China is a major food importer, and the food import will only grow in the coming years.

> I’m disappointed at your lack of mental abilities.

I too am disappointed in yours.

Expert
December 18, 2011 at 18:07

Liang1a

> But none of these methods are efficient or invulnerable to attack.

How is the AWACS L-band radar scanning inefficient?

> The missiles then used other methods such as IR and E/O (laser) methods to finally detect the stealth plane itself.

The SA-3 missile that hit F-117 was radar-guided. The interception distance was 13 km.

> And the missile still did not hit the F-117. It only exploded in the vicinity of the plane but close enough to damage it sufficiently to make the pilot eject.

That’s what A2A missiles are designed to do.

> In the end, stealth is important enough to make a difference in combat.

Against 3rd world countries, yes.
Against 1rd world countries armed with advanced radars, AWACS, Aegis destroyers, the missile defense, and AESA-radar equipped fighter jets, no.

> It only means that Chinese J-10, J-11, and even older types of J-8 fighters can shoot the Japanese F-35 down.

Only in the mind of a Chinese nationalist would J-10 and J-8 would shoot down an F-35. The reverse is true in reality.

> This means Japanese AWACS cannot be defended against Chinese fighters who will outnumber Japanese fighters by 5 to 1 or evn 10 to 1.

How many fighter jets with enough range to reach the Senkakus does China have? Will Chinese pilots flying obsolete jets accept orders to a one-way mission?

> Incidentally, there are estimates that Chinese air force will deploy some 200 J-20 within the next few years while the Japanese might deploy no more than 50 F-35.

J-20 won’t be deployed until 2018 at the earliest.

> China will also deploy some 2,000 J-11B.

Nope. Not enough engines from Russia to build that many and Chinese engines are not reliable enough to be used in frontline fighters.

> All of these together with tens of thousands of missiles

That would mean an all-out war that automatically drags the US into the war.

> will simply wipe the Japanese AWACS and all other defensive devices off the face of the earth or sky.

And China gets into an all out war. And no, Japanese AWACS would still be in the air, to your distress.

> It is China now with the economic advantage of 4 to 1 now.

No such advantage exists today. It is actually about even.

Expert
December 18, 2011 at 17:52

Liang1a

> America has F-35 and China has J-20.

J-20′s opponent isn’t F-35, but F-22 and AESA-upgraded F-15s specialized in stealth jet detection and jamming.

> So they are at par. America’s GDP is $15 trillion. China’s GDP is at 45 trillion yuan which at 3 yuan per dollar (PPP value)

When the exchange rate is 3 yuan per dollar, China falls into a Japanese style 20-year depression.

This is why the communist party resists the US demand to revalue yuan, because they know better than anyone that the Chinese economy cannot function on a 3 yuan per dollar exchange rate.

> So economically China is also at par with the US.

Only in the minds of Chinese nationalists, that is.

> China’s supercomputer is even faster than the best American supercomputer.

If you actually knew what China’s “supercomputers” are, then you wouldn’t even mention this.

> For example, China produces 90% of the world’s rare earth elements.

There are other alternate source of rare earth minenals, particularly mongolia and the US itself. Those mines were shut down when the Chinese were dumping their minenals back in the 90s, but could always be reactivated when the conditions warrant it.

> Therefore, the current sad state pf the Chinese people’s poverty is only due to the mistakened policies of excessive exports that rely on cheap labor.

Better than the mass unemployment since China’s domestic consumption alone cannot provide jobs for all its people.

Liang1a
December 17, 2011 at 23:05

Liang’s prior post: Are you being facetious or are you showing a genuine lack of intelligence?

Expert’s response:You claimed that Foxconn and Honda didn’t represent China’s urban workers. If they are country-side workers, then Foxconn and Honda’s plants must be in the countryside next to pig farms and rice fields.
————————————

Liang’s response:
There are some 200 million to 300 million people from the rural areas working in the urban areas. These are not classified as urban residents. They are classified as migrant workers. They are not registered in the urban areas they are working in. They are also not permitted to become reclassified as urban residents without permissions. For example, as migrant workers they are not entitled for many kinds of help such as in buying housings or enrolling their children in local schools. This system is being changed with several experimental policies.
=====================================

Liang’s prior post: To solve this problem China must phase out labor intensive exports while developing domestic economy based on the urbanization of the farmers.

Expert’s response: Who is going to provide food for China’s population then? Import? That needs dollars, because food exporters don’t take Yuan as the means of payment. How is China going to earn dollars to import food then?
—————————————–

Liang’s response:
How many Chinese farmer do you think it will take to produce all the food China needs? With mechanization it will only take less than 5% of the Chinese population to produce all the food China needs. This means only some 50 million Chinese farmers can produce all the food China needs. China is already producing all the food it needs. That means it has sufficient land to produce the food it needs. Furthermore, with better farming techniques enabled by more advanced science and technologies such as more efficient use of fertilizers and herbicides and insecticides and crop rotation and drip irrigation, etc., China’s food output will surely increase per area of farm land. And urbanization will also result in a net increase of farm land because as 95% of the rural residents move to the urban areas the hundreds of millions of farm houses will be torn down and returned to food production by the tens of thousands of square kilometers.

Frankly, I’m disappointed at your lack of mental abilities. If you want to denigrate China at least use compelling reasons and not irrational nonsense.

Liang1a
December 17, 2011 at 22:44

Valbonne wrote:

December 17, 2011 at 3:33 am

One day (may be 200 years from now) China and America will be at par with each other. These Asian countries will be in Asia and they cannot leave Asia. What are these Asian countries going to tell China for what they have done.
—————————————

In many ways China is already “at par” with the US now. America has F-35 and China has J-20. So they are at par. America’s GDP is $15 trillion. China’s GDP is at 45 trillion yuan which at 3 yuan per dollar (PPP value) is also $15 trillion. So economically China is also at par with the US. China’s supercomputer is even faster than the best American supercomputer. And in other things such as resources China is ahead of the US. For example, China produces 90% of the world’s rare earth elements. China is the biggest producer of gold. China produces more steel and aluminum than America. Therefore, the current sad state pf the Chinese people’s poverty is only due to the mistakened policies of excessive exports that rely on cheap labor. As soon as the Chinese government begins to shift to domestic development, then China will surge ahead of the US in every way from economics to technologies to military. America has reached its maximum and cannot grow further. China is only beginning to grow. China is already at a par with America now. And China will ultimately be 6 times or more bigger than the US within 30 years because while the Chinese people will be equally empowered by the Chinese government the American people who are the minorities will be suppressed by the American government. (1/3 of the American people are minorities whose wealth is only 1/20 of the white-Americans on the average.)

Therefore, China does not need 200 years to be par with the US. It is already at par with the US today and will exceed the US by 600% in 30 years.

Liang1a
December 17, 2011 at 21:10

Liang’s prior post: But all of these methods will still need to get the missiles to hit the stealth fighter which is much more difficult.

Expert’s response: Stealth means reduced detection range, not invisibility. Yes, radar-guided missiles can hit stealth jets(That’s how F/A-117 was shot down in Serbia), it is just that you have to guide the missile a bit longer than non-stealth targets.
—————————————-

Liang’s response:
As I said before there are several ways that stealth planes can be detected. But none of these methods are efficient or invulnerable to attack. And the most effective way is by using passive radar in the VHF and UHF. In the case of the F-117 it got wet in the rain which reflected radar waves which was detected by an old type of long wave radar used by the Serbs. It was not the L-band you raved about. The missiles then used other methods such as IR and E/O (laser) methods to finally detect the stealth plane itself. In the end it is not the radar part of the missile that guided the missile to the F-117 but its IR and laser that allowed human guidance to the plane. And the F-117 was only a short distance of some 13 km from the missile site according to one report. The path of the F-117 was also predicted before hand and the missile operator was waiting for it. And lastly, F-117 stealth technologies are old. The newer types of stealth technologies especially in the J-20 are much better. And the missile still did not hit the F-117. It only exploded in the vicinity of the plane but close enough to damage it sufficiently to make the pilot eject.

In the end, stealth is important enough to make a difference in combat. And if stealth is not important then F-35 is wasted on the Japanese. It only means that Chinese J-10, J-11, and even older types of J-8 fighters can shoot the Japanese F-35 down. This means Japanese AWACS cannot be defended against Chinese fighters who will outnumber Japanese fighters by 5 to 1 or evn 10 to 1. Incidentally, there are estimates that Chinese air force will deploy some 200 J-20 within the next few years while the Japanese might deploy no more than 50 F-35. China will also deploy some 2,000 J-11B. All of these together with tens of thousands of missiles will simply wipe the Japanese AWACS and all other defensive devices off the face of the earth or sky. It is China now with the economic advantage of 4 to 1 now. In the next 10 years the Chinese economy will more than double while the Japanese economy will decline due to its loss of technological competitive edge. So China will overwhelm Japan with more than 10 times the economic superiority and technological superiority and can bury Japan effortlessly. Japan is setting while China is just beginning to rise.

Expert
December 17, 2011 at 16:20

@ Liang1a

> But all of these methods will still need to get the missiles to hit the stealth fighter which is much more difficult.

Stealth means reduced detection range, not invisibility. Yes, radar-guided missiles can hit stealth jets(That’s how F/A-117 was shot down in Serbia), it is just that you have to guide the missile a bit longer than non-stealth targets.

> And if the AWACS plane got shot

AWACS can see stealth targets at least 150 km away with their powerful L-band AESA radars.

> There won’t be any AWACS left after the first hour of war.

There will be.

> If the wages of the Chinese workers increased then its labor intensive exports must collapse.

And this is what western experts are predicting.

> If the Chinese economy has shifted to domestic development then the collapse of the exports will only allow energy and resources to be reallocated to domestic development.

Chinese domestic consumption is not enough to sustain growth. In essense, Chin falls into a Japan-style depression if its export collapses.

> The truth is exports and FDI are stumbling blocks and blood suckers that prevent China’s long term economic growth and development.

Without the blood suckers, China would be left with hundreds of millions of unemployed people.

> Are you being facetious or are you showing a genuine lack of intelligence?

You claimed that Foxconn and Honda didn’t represent China’s urban workers. If they are country-side workers, then Foxconn and Honda’s plants must be in the countryside next to pig farms and rice fields.

> To solve this problem China must phase out labor intensive exports while developing domestic economy based on the urbanization of the farmers.

Who is going to provide food for China’s population then? Import? That needs dollars, because food exporters don’t take Yuan as the means of payment. How is China going to earn dollars to import food then?

> Ultimately, the Chinese people will increase their productivity to levels higher than that of the Japanese and the Americans

Looking at China today, that’s impossible. Looking at the history of Hong Kong and Taiwan as a representation of China’s future, that too is impossible.

There is a reason why every single developed country is a full democracy. China cannot become a developed country as long as it restricts freedom of thoughts and speech, because the freedom of thoughts and economic justice is the driver behind the innovation that creates values. And with the communist party firmly in power, China’s future as a perpetual 3rd world country is sealed.

Valbonne
December 17, 2011 at 03:33

It makes sense for Japan to choose F35 because Japan is part of American policy of encirclement of China. Eventually, I believe South Korea, Australia and India or even Philippines and Vietnam will follow suit.

It very expensive for all these countries to be part of American encirclement. These countries will bear a higher cost in the future. China is still here in Asia and “China exist and China can wait”. One day (may be 200 years from now) China and America will be at par with each other. These Asian countries will be in Asia and they cannot leave Asia. What are these Asian countries going to tell China for what they have done.

Liang1a
December 16, 2011 at 22:47

Liang’s prior post: Therefore, 200,000 yuan would be $66,000 at the PPP value rate.

Expert’s response: And then China’s economy would collapse because all the foreign manufacturers would flee China to go to Vietnam if Yuan strengthened. Foreigners are in China because of low wages, not because they love China. When the Chinese wages rise, it is time to pack up and leave. Foxconn’s departure alone would leave 400,000 Chinese workers unemployed. Now mutiply this 1000 times and you will see how destroyed Chinese economy will become.
—————————–
Liang’s response:
If the wages of the Chinese workers increased then its labor intensive exports must collapse. If China’s economy depends entirely on labor intensive exports then the Chinese economy will be destroyed. But if the Chinese economy does not depend on labor intensive exports then it will not be destroyed. If the Chinese economy has shifted to domestic development then the collapse of the exports will only allow energy and resources to be reallocated to domestic development. In which case domestic development will accelerate and China will get richer faster.

The problem is that most people take it for granted that China must rely on exports and FDI. The truth is exports and FDI are stumbling blocks and blood suckers that prevent China’s long term economic growth and development. As Expert so convincingly proved, China cannot grow rich if it relied on exports. The logical solution is for China to phase out exports and shift to domestic development so that all its people can grow richer than the Japanese by being more aproductive than the Japanese. The Chinese people don’t need to export anything to Japan because they can consume their own output of goods and services. The Chinese people should have more confidence in themselves. They absolutely can grow rich independently.
===================================

Liang’s prior post: Foxconn employees and Honda employees are not real urban workers.

Expert’s response: I didn’t know Foxconn and Honda factories were in the countryside worked by farmers.
————————–

Liang’s response:
Are you being facetious or are you showing a genuine lack of intelligence?
==============================

Liang’s prior post: The real urban workers make much higher incomes.

Expert’s response:And they constitude less than 10% of China’s population. China at the moment has 0.1% ultra-rich having all the money, 10% middle-class, and 90% poors.
——————————–
Liang’s response:
The vast majority of the Chinese are very poor. The reason is because China relies excessively on labor intensive exports made competitive by cheap yuan. To solve this problem China must phase out labor intensive exports while developing domestic economy based on the urbanization of the farmers. As the urbanized farmers increased their productivity they will deserve higher wages commensurate with their increased productivity. Ultimately, the Chinese people will increase their productivity to levels higher than that of the Japanese and the Americans and will earn incomes higher than these peoples. And because the Chinese workers can produce more than the Japanese and the Americans they can consume more than these peoples and have higher standard of living than the Japanese and the Americans can ever possibly have.

Liang1a
December 16, 2011 at 22:12

Liang’s prior post: Furthermore, the whole point of being stealthy is to avoid being detected by radars and AWACS.

Expert’s response: Nope.
———————-

Liang’s response:
So what’s the purpose of being stealthy? Just to look good?
=======================

Liang’s prior post: The planes carrying commandos will not take off until all the SAMs have been destroyed by Chinese missiles

Expert’s response: Then those Chinese planes will not take off.
—————————

Liang’s response:
Or so you cross your fingers and wish real hard.
========================

Liang’s prior post: Furthermore, the troop carriers can fly below the radars until they are several miles from the target.

Expert’s response: And how does Chinese troop carriers avoid detection by AWACS?
————————-

Liang’s response:
There won’t be any AWACS left after the first hour of war.

Liang1a
December 16, 2011 at 22:03

Liang’s prior post: And AWACS can’t detect stealth fighters.

Expert’s response: Actually they can. There is no stealth against low-band radars(At least the cost of attempting stealth against low-band radar is too great in terms of weight), and AWACS operate L-band radars.

The current “stealth” fad is really about delayed missile lock-on, not evading detection by AWACS, Aegis, and the Missile Defense radars.
—————————

Liang’s response:

See the following quote why L-band radar is not a sure thing against stealth fighters. As far as detecting stealth fighters are concerned there are also other ways of detecting them. Infra red and electrical optical devices can also detect stealth fighters but only poorly and only in clear weather and within short distances. Also passive radar might be even better at detecting stealth fighters. But all of these methods will still need to get the missiles to hit the stealth fighter which is much more difficult. And if the AWACS plane got shot down then the defense is blind. In the end, unless you can put L-band radars on the intercepting fighters and their missiles the stealth fighters are still difficult to hit.

http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-Rus-Low-Band-Radars.html

Low band radars are not a panacea for the defeat of VLO (Very Low Observable) aircraft. Their angular accuracy has been until recently poor, and the required antenna size results in ungainly systems which are usually slow to deploy and stow, even if designed from the outset for mobility. The size and high power emissions of these radars, in types with limited mobility, makes them much easier to detect and destroy than typical mobile systems operating in the decimetric and centimetric bands, which can relocate rapidly after a missile shot.

Liang1a
December 16, 2011 at 18:28

Expert wrote:

This is how the interception works.

1. Chinese jet intrudes Japan’s airspace in the East China Sea.
2. Japanese jet scrambles to intercept.
3. Japanese jet joins the Chinese jet, flying side by side.
4. Japanese jet pilot issues a warning and orders the Chinese jet to leave.
—————————————–

Liang’s response:
I hope someday soon Chinese fighters seeing Japanese fighters in China’s airspace over Diaoyu islands will warn the Japanese fighters to leave Chinese air space. If the Japanese fighter tried to order Chinese fighter out of China’s own sovereign air space then the Chinese fighter should lock on it and give him one final warning and ask him if it is the intention of the Japanese fighter to engage. If the Japanese fighter answer in the affirmative then the Chinese fighter must respond by launching his missiles and shoot it down. That is the only way to protect Chinese sovereign territories.

Expert
December 16, 2011 at 17:34

@ Liang1a

> Of course nobody can say for sure how the Chinese pilots will do against the Japanese pilots without actually engaging in a real battle

Ask Pakistani pilots. They train with the Chinese airforce and will tell you Chinese are not very impressive.

> Looking at the performance of the Asian Games, it is obvious that the Chinese athletes are far superior to the Japanese athletes:

The medal count is meaningless because single runner can win multiple golds, while it takes a whole team to win a gold in soccer.

Rather, observe how Chinese perform in team sports, because fighting war is done as a team, and you will find that the Chinese record in team sports is much less impressive.

> Are the Japanese more intelligent than the Chinese?

On international IQ tests, yes.

> Therefore it is apparent that the Japanese are atheletically and intellectually inferior to the Chinese.

Then how come China is a 3rd world country with hundreds of millions of migrant workers surviving on $5 a day while Japanese eat blue-fin tuna sushi for dinner?

> In the end the Chinese pilots get just as good training as the Japanese pilots, if not superior training.

Once again, the foreign military that have trained with the PLA aren’t impressed.

> The Japanese radars and AWACS will all be blown up or shot down by anti-radiation missiles.

Where do you get the idea that the anti-radiation missile can evade the SAM, or the jet carrying the missile for that matter?

> And AWACS can’t detect stealth fighters.

Actually they can. There is no stealth against low-band radars(At least the cost of attempting stealth against low-band radar is too great in terms of weight), and AWACS operate L-band radars.

The current “stealth” fad is really about delayed missile lock-on, not evading detection by AWACS, Aegis, and the Missile Defense radars.

> Furthermore, the whole point of being stealthy is to avoid being detected by radars and AWACS.

Nope.

> The planes carrying commandos will not take off until all the SAMs have been destroyed by Chinese missiles

Then those Chinese planes will not take off.

> Furthermore, the troop carriers can fly below the radars until they are several miles from the target.

And how does Chinese troop carriers avoid detection by AWACS?

> For example, Chinese supercomputers have been superior to Japanese supercomputers in recent years.

Japanese supercomputer : Real custom supercomputers doing useful work.
Chinese supercomputer : Basically nothing more than clustered stock PCs using nVIDIA videocards for GPGPU computing. Good for benchmarks, useless for real work because there are no apps for them and Chinese can’t code them.

> Also Chinese CPU technologies are improving fast and will overtake Japanese CPU technologies.

Japanese CPUs : Real custom vector supercomputing CPUs.
Chinese CPUs : Pirated obsolete US designs from the 90s fabricated on an obsolete process.

> Chinese high speed train technologies are already superior to the Japanese high speed train technologies.

“Chinese” high speed trains are nothing more than Japanese Shinkansen E2s driven beyond the speed limit imposed by the Japanese manufacturer. In other word, there is no such thing as an indigenous Chinese bullet train; they are all Kawasakis and Siemens.

> In another 10 years China will surpass Japanese technologies in most sectors.

China’s lost brother Taiwan tried for 15 years and gave up.

> But as Chinese cars become superior to Japanese cars

Which will not happen. In case you haven’t read Chinese business newspapers, Chinese domestic automakers are rapidly losing market shares to foreign automakers this year, down to just 27% of China’s domestic auto market.

If Chinese automakers can’t compete in their own home market, how are they supposed to compete overseas? Do Chinese even understand what’s wrong with Chinese brand cars and product?

> I had already given you a couple of examples which are supercomputers and high speed trains.

Wrong examples. Shows how little you know the true nature of those CCP propaganda.

> There is hardly any technological field that China is not progressing rapidly and poised to catch and surpass Japan within 10 years.

Just look at Taiwan as your future self. Actually China will be worse off than Taiwan.

> If the Chinese government can kick out all foreigners

Then Chinese economy collapses.

> China is on the way to accomplish that. But first China has to kick out the Japanese and other foreigners so they can stop sucking the Chinese economic blood.

And why does “superior” China allow foreigners to come into China and take 73% of Chinese domestic automarket? The Walmart is the biggest retailer in China fiercely battling other foreign mega retailers, not Chinese retailers(Chinese retailers present no threat to Walmart in China).

> Again, obviously China cannot allow its workers to be rich while working to produce cheap low tech labor intensive products for exports.

Then what “expensive” high-quality brand goods does China produce? Nothing.

Everything China produces is either cheap goods, or contract-manufactured goods for multinational brands like Apple, GE, Samsung, Sony, etc.

> Since the Chinese people cannot achieve high wages and must stay permanently poor by working for foreign manufacturers

And this is why Chinese people will remain poor.

> Therefore, 200,000 yuan would be $66,000 at the PPP value rate.

And then China’s economy would collapse because all the foreign manufacturers would flee China to go to Vietnam if Yuan strengthened. Foreigners are in China because of low wages, not because they love China. When the Chinese wages rise, it is time to pack up and leave. Foxconn’s departure alone would leave 400,000 Chinese workers unemployed. Now mutiply this 1000 times and you will see how destroyed Chinese economy will become.

> Foxconn employees and Honda employees are not real urban workers.

I didn’t know Foxconn and Honda factories were in the countryside worked by farmers.

> The real urban workers make much higher incomes.

And they constitude less than 10% of China’s population. China at the moment has 0.1% ultra-rich having all the money, 10% middle-class, and 90% poors.

@ John Chan

> Even Indian does not want US warplanes after lengthy scientific and rational analysis, so US jets are not the best, but most expensive, i.e. the worst value jets.

Indians didn’t want US jets because of the lack of tech transfer, not because they were inferior to European offerings.

> The 10:1 ratio is true only if you take USA propaganda as given truth, just like the brag they made over battle harden Nazi pilots.

Actually USAF Mustang pilots shot down German Me-262s. The only prop fighter pilots to shoot down jets during the entire course of WW2.

> It seems the Japanese pilots have chickened out, then bad mouth Chinese pilots to white wash their bad performance.

The USAF pilots deployed in Japan who frequently trains with JASDF beg to differ.

Liang1a
December 16, 2011 at 15:37

Liang’s prior post: The Chinese urban workers are already making 50,000 yuan.

Expert’s response: Nope. Ask how much Foxconn pays its Chinese workers; it’s 2000 yuan/month + overtime. Honda pays 2500 yuans. That’s the wage of top employers.

Any higher wages and the employers are ready to close shop and leave China, leaving tens of millions of unemployed Chinese workers behind.
——————————-

Foxconn employees and Honda employees are not real urban workers. They are migrant workers working in foreign owned factories in the so-called processing trade where products are shipped out of China. The real urban workers make much higher incomes. Refer to the following quote from China Labour Bulletin. Even younger Chinese less than 30 years old are making more than 36,000 yuan per year. Considering all age groups, the median incomes would be around 50,000 yuan or more for Chinese “urban residents.”

http://www.clb.org.hk/en/node/100988

“The survey of 1,000 enterprises, published on 21 February, found that migrant workers under 30 years of age earned 1,748 yuan per month on average, compared with the 3,047 yuan per month earned by urban residents.”

Liang1a
December 16, 2011 at 15:22

Expert wrote:
December 16, 2011 at 4:10 am

Liang’s prior post: Too bad “people outside of China” don’t determine what China can do

Expert’s response:
Of course not. It is just that people outside of China don’t think China is all that.
———————-

Liang’s response:
People outside of China can think what they like. As you have conceded people outside of China cannot determine what China can do, therefore they cannot stop China’s resurgence.
=========================
Liang’s prior post: Since China has already moved ahead of Japan in at least several technological sectors

Expert’s responst: Which is?
——————–

Liang’s response:
I had already given you a couple of examples which are supercomputers and high speed trains. Other examples are such as space lab, lithium battery, stealth fighters, nuclear attack subs, etc. In many technological fields China is catching up fast. Examples of these are laser, CPU, avionics, material science and nanotechnologies, etc. There is hardly any technological field that China is not progressing rapidly and poised to catch and surpass Japan within 10 years. If the Chinese government can kick out all foreigners then China’s technologies will progress as fast as its military technologies which are already at the forefront of the world. And the Chinese people can get much richer making them rather than paying the Japanese and other assorted foreigners for them.
========================

Liang’s prior post: It is actually quite easy for China to achieve a per capita GNP of some 200,000 yuan.

Expert’s response: Try to get 1 billion out of absolute poverty before claiming that.
————————

Liang’s response:
China is on the way to accomplish that. But first China has to kick out the Japanese and other foreigners so they can stop sucking the Chinese economic blood.
========================

Liang’s prior post: The Chinese urban workers are already making 50,000 yuan.

Expert’s response: Nope. Ask how much Foxconn pays its Chinese workers; it’s 2000 yuan/month + overtime. Honda pays 2500 yuans. That’s the wage of top employers.

Any higher wages and the employers are ready to close shop and leave China, leaving tens of millions of unemployed Chinese workers behind.
———————
Liang’s response:
Again, obviously China cannot allow its workers to be rich while working to produce cheap low tech labor intensive products for exports. So again China must close down all foreign factories and shift the Chinese economy from exports to domestic development. But once Chinese workers are highly productive making high tech products such as jumbo jets, electric cars, supercomputers, MRI, etc. for themselves to consumer then they can make incomes higher than Japanese workers because they can be more productive than they are.

Since the Chinese people cannot achieve high wages and must stay permanently poor by working for foreign manufacturers, there is every reason to shift the Chinese economy from exports to domestic development. Many Chinese have been brainwashed into thinking that China will fall into backwardness and abject poverty if it “isolated” itself simply because China begin relying on itself. Japan relies on this brainwashing to keep China dependent on it thus allowing it to dig in its claws deeper and ultimately turning China into a colony thus completing its aggression begun over 100 years ago. China is always stronger than Japan. But by being sold out by its traitors China was easily invaded by Japan. I hope those Chinese who think they are patriotic will gain a little understanding and begin supporting kicking out the Japanese from the Chinese economy.
==============================

Liang’s prior post: Increasing it 4 times over 30 years is not difficult.

Expert’s response: And 200,000 Yuan is only $31,000. By then, the GDP per capita of countries like the US would be at $90,000.
————————-

Liang’s response:
How much 1 yuan is equivalent to how much dollar depends on the exchange rate. At 8.27 yuan per dollar it would be $.12. At the current exchange rate of 6.35 yuan per dollar it is $.16. And at the PPP value rate of 3 yuan per dollar it would be $0.33. Therefore, 200,000 yuan would be $66,000 at the PPP value rate. This value is based on the purchasing power of the dollar in 2011. Of course, with the certain high inflation rate in America the incomes of the America people will rise rapidly. But the purchasing power may actually decrease over time. The same thing will also happen in Japan as its technological competitiveness decline relative to Chinese technological rise and the Japanes yen must be devalued to keep its product competitive in foreign markets. The Japanese economic sun is definitely setting. Unfortunately, it is China that in its misunderstanding of economic priciples is propping up the Japanese economy.
======================================

Liang’s prior post: And by 2040 China’s population would be some 1.5 billion. So the total GNP would be some 300 trillion yuan.

Expert’s response: China will have hundreds of millions of the elderly, supported by few young workers thanks to the one-child policy. This is like aging Japan’s problem multiplied 10 times. And China’s already showing signs of aging while it is still a 3rd world country, unlike Japan.
——————————-

Liang’s response:
China’s technologies are rising rapidly while that of Japan’s is stalling. Especially if it starts to shift many of its scientists and engineers to the military technologies. With its cutting edge technologies the Chinese will be much more productive than Japan. This means that fewer Chinese workers can support one retiree than Japan. With China’s abundant resources the cost of goods and services will be much less than Japan. Ultimately China can provide its 1.5 billion people with more goods and services of higher quality than Japan. China’s 1.5 billion people is a great advantage because from these people will come a much larger pool of genius people who can develop the most superior technologies. In contrast Japanese technologies will become second best and must rely on cheap yen to export them thus requiring the Japanese people to have lower standard of living than the Chinese.

In the end, Japan has peaked in every way while China is rising rapidly. The fact that Japan was able to dominate China over the last 200 years is not due to the permanent inferiority of the Chinese people but to an unfortunate decline in the culture and government of the Qing Dynasty. China is already recovered and has shown its future direction. As the Chinese government correct its errors and implement policies to empower more rapid technological advancement and shift its economic development to domestic development through the urbanization of the farmers, China’s progress will accelerate. China is on track to regain its position as the sole ultra-superpower of the world. Japan should consider itself lucky that it can claim certain closeness to China’s genome and culture and can bask in China’s ultimate power and glory as its kin and neighbor.

John Chan
December 16, 2011 at 14:29

@Expert,
Even Indian does not want US warplanes after lengthy scientific and rational analysis, so US jets are not the best, but most expensive, i.e. the worst value jets.

Chinese pilots fly same amount of hours as the USA pilots.

F-35 will be a sitting duck for J-20 and J-11B.

The 10:1 ratio is true only if you take USA propaganda as given truth, just like the brag they made over battle harden Nazi pilots.

In a blue sky with no fix reference except the jet besides you, it could be either one of them or both of them not flying straight. It seems the Japanese pilots have chickened out, then bad mouth Chinese pilots to white wash their bad performance.

Cam
December 16, 2011 at 04:35

A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare

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