Last year was an unsettling year for Pakistanis. With political upheaval and security threats looming, 2012 will likely bring more of the same.
Deadly violence bookended Pakistan’s 2011. The year began with the assassination of Salmaan Taseer, governor of the country’s largest province, by his bodyguard. It ended with a deadly NATO attack on a border base that killed 24 Pakistani security personnel.
In the months in between, U.S.-Pakistan relations went into free fall. CIA contractor Raymond was acquitted of murder after apparently killing two Pakistanis in broad daylight in Lahore. Later, the United States unilaterally killed Osama bin Laden near a Pakistani military academy, humiliating Pakistan’s army and air force. Subsequently, an angered U.S. Congress moved to restrict aid to Pakistan.
Domestically, former cricketer Imran Khan shook up Pakistani politics, with his party emerging as a third way political force. Meanwhile, the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) was put on the defensive when an anti-military memo delivered to the Pentagon, alleged to have been coauthored by Islamabad’s ambassador in Washington, forced the diplomat’s resignation and strained ties with the military, sparking talk of a possible coup.
Amid all this turmoil, Pakistan’s state and citizens went unattended. Economic growth was anemic, inflation remained high, and major state-owned companies bled billions of dollars.
All of this means that 2012 may well be both a year of change, and more of the same.
Here are five developments to watch out for in 2012:
A new government in Islamabad. National and provincial assembly polls are scheduled for 2013, but Pakistanis will likely head to the polls around the time Americans do this autumn. For months, the opposition Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N) has been clamoring for early elections. Now, the governing coalition leader the PPP appears to have decided to move for early polls, currently expected to be held in October.
Both the PML-N and PPP face a serious challenge from Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e Insaf (PTI), which could be the next coalition government’s kingmaker by gaining the third largest share of National Assembly seats. By the year’s end, there could be a new prime minister in Islamabad and a new president-elect in Washington, adding even more uncertainty to the volatile bilateral relationship.
Photo Credit: Khaum
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ekhindustani
Pakistan wanted to bleed India with a thousand cuts.We have turned this on its head and now Pakistan is bleeding itself with a million cuts.The solution to POK is in exactly what India is doing.Leave Pakistan to itself and POK will by themselves walk to India.What would people from POK be thinking when they see India doing so well and Pakistan doing so poorly.India is playing the game well.
Tony
Hope this sick country disappears into its own abyss of terror into stone age..And the mullahs and taliban commanders rule amist the debris of rocks and urine with a water bottle and AK47 in their hands…
Yang zi
You guys are so mean
Yura
@Tony: “Hope this sick country disappears into its own abyss of terror into stone age..And the mullahs and taliban commanders rule amist the debris of rocks and urine with a water bottle and AK47 in their hands…”
Yura’s reply: Always trust Americans to readily show everyone what grossly misinformed and gullible people they are. Evidently Pakistan is a sick country because it kept warning the Americans to stop their foolhardy war that they ultimately lost and are now dealing with the conflict in the very way Pakistan had advised them to since day 1. If this Tony thinks Pakistan could be taken over by the Taliban amidst the debris of rocks and urine with a water bottle and AK47 in their hands, then he simply has no interest in getting to know the real facts on the ground, he’s just here to vent out his petty and unfounded frustrations on the Pakistani scapegoat.
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@yang zi: “Pakistan is not that far behind India in economic development. Hopefully the conclusion of Afghanistan war can give Pakistan some breathing room to develop. It is signing FTAs with the countries like Indonesia. good move.”
Yura’s reply: Very true. Before 1992 Pakistan’s GDP size and annual GDP growth rate were both larger than India’s. Even during the war on terror from 2001 to 2008 Pakistan’s GDP consistently grew faster than India’s despite being embroiled in a devastating war on its own soil and even after 2008 Pakistan’s economy has been growing at 2-3 percent per year, while the country’s middle and lower classes are far more prosperous than India’s; once the war in Afghanistan ends, a lot of Pakistan’s resources will be freed up to invest in economic development. India is praised as an economic miracle but the levels of extreme poverty found in its largest cities and rural areas to the east do not exist in Pakistan.
Bharateeya
@Girish: “We are Ok to settle with POK as part of Pakistan for the sake of peace.” Who’s given you that kind of power, bro? I really do wish you were in some sort of decision-making body on such matters. Because as we all know, India will never give up it’s claims on the whole of Kashmir. For peace’s sake, all that the Indian State has done is to alienate it’s relationship with China over Aksai Chin(China’s willing to give up it’s claims on Arunachal if India agrees on Aksai). The Indian State deserves a pain-in-the-ass in the form of Pakistan.
Girish
@Bharateeya
I can understand your point very well and that of your reaction is very valid. Also I am not in any decision making body so all that I said was my personal opinion. But I do understand the ground realities and diplomatic vulnerabilities.
Kashmir is part of India as it always was. And Pakistan has to stop dreaming about it. But having said that, it is also a fact that we cannot get POK back with diplomacy and talk as that is a status quo. And also, India has no plan to wage a war (as a policy) to get POK back. Thus our diplomatic situation is clear.
anno domini
India has administered its part of J & K since 1947, Pakistan has been doing the same on its part. It is my opinion that India and pak should make the loc the final International border. Right now some Kashmiris want an independent nation. But that does not seem to be a possibility. India will not leave Kashmir (at least the part they control), and pakistan is not going through all this trouble for creating a separate nation. so I feel converting the present status quo into permanent solution is the best option.
E Mariner
The whole strategic importance of J&K is because of Gilgit-Baltistan, not because of Kashmir valley. People of Gilgit- Baltistan are fed up of Pakistani occupation. India cannot and should not leave the Shiite majority of Gilgit and Baltistan to the Talibani wolves. No government in India can survive even if it talks about giving up its claim on POK. 2012 is not 1972 and Doordarshan begins its weather bulletin not only with Gilgit and Skardu, but even includes Chitral, which should rightfully be considered a part of POK.
Girish
Very painful country. Pain for its own people and for the neighbors and now for the world too.
I hope new year will bring some good luck for Pakistanis.
I wish them the following things.
1. A stable goverment which cannot be pulled down by military and ISI
2. A lesson to Pakistan Militart yand ISI that they are for Pakistan and not visa versa. They must be told their roles and responsibilities very clearly just like in another mature country. They can take some lessons from their brother China for that matter.
3. Sense of respect towards secularism and control on Islamic radicalization of its population
4. Development of modern education system (and not Madarsa education)
5. Focus on economic and social development as a priority.
Also I request to leave India centric holistic approach as it has given nothing to Pakistan so far except nuclear bombs or missiles and some war defeats. Pakistan has tried all means now weather direct wars or even proxy wars with the help of state sponsored terrorism but gained nothing out of it.
Infact, Pakistan which was a tiger economy in 70s is now in the list of failed economies. Once those terror groups used to terrorise Indians in Kashmir or other part of the country are now killing more Pakistanis where as peace has returned in Kashmir and other parts of the country. Meanshile even after facing all odds, India has now emerged as major economy and a powerful nation.
Forget Kashmir, it was part of Bharat (Hindustan) even before Pakistan was only an idea on a piece of paper. You have wasted 65 years now. I guess that’s enough of experiments. Lets get to the realities. We are Ok to settle with POK as part of Pakistan for the sake of peace.
Jayadevan, India
I totally agree with Girish.
I know Pakistan want a solution. But it is the military and ISI …they are the trouble makers. If Pakistan is at peace with India, Militarya and ISI has no relevance. They are afraid of that Situation.
Bilal
@Girish I think u need a lesson in history .. all i can say is have a read of the indus saga by atizaz ahsan .. the akhand baharat is a flawed idea and is not based on history at all
And mate Pakistan has lost more than all the world put together in this war. Since you seem to be interested in history tell me when warriors came from mountains in afghanistan what was there target ? it was always delhi and now what stands between these warriors and delhi ?
Girish
@Bilal
Well, I don;t need to read any atizaz ahsan. Pakistanis are know to live in denial (also confirmed by many Pakistani intellectuals in their own news channels).
Also history of bharat is thrice much older then Islam and its followers. We don;t need to know all this from any Pakistani about history of India.
Also, go and check your DNA. 90% Pakistans are of India blood, converters into Islam and are not Arabs or turks.
Also, your arguments saying that Pakistan has lost more in terror attack can only gain simpthy and not respect. After all Pakistan has not left any stone unturned to use terror as their state policy. And what is happening is a backfire and you have to face it and learn from your mistakes.
Anyhow sympathy is always there for those to suffer. But then lets wait and watch what all Pakistan has learned from its mistakes.
And when warriers come, Pakistan was part of India. Now we face warriers coming from Pakistan itself. Last one was during Kargil. And we face intruders on daily basis in Kashmir.
ekhindustani
That may be true 200 yrs ago but today Pakistan is standing between India and Afghanistan.India wants to help Afghanistan but you would let.Wake up and smell the coffee.There will be no Pakistan in 20 yrs time and for once you wont be able to blame India.Your enemies are within!
yang zi
Pakistan is not that far behind India in economic development. Hopefully the conclusion of Afghanistan war can give Pakistan some breathing room to develop. It is signing FTAs with the countries like Indonesia. good move.
Girish
@yang zi
You sentiments are understandable and we respect your sense of brotherhood with Pakistan. We all hope that Pakistan develops :-) as no one want a terrorist camp in the neighborhood. I hope they do serious business with Indonesia rather sending some terrorist in the containers or spread their radicalizing ideology to Indonesian Muslims. Good luck Indonesia..!!
Do you remember renounced “Bali terror attack”??. In March Last year, its mastermind was arrested from Pakistan (as always).