North Korea looms over ties between China and South Korea. Indeed, the future of the North Korean regime goes to the very heart of longstanding tensions.
Celebrating the 20th anniversary of the normalization of relations, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak visited China earlier this month. One theme at the talks was China’s longstanding request to open negotiations on a free trade agreement, boosting commerce beyond the current level of $207 billion and increasing the huge impact of China’s economy on a country with a GNP of roughly $1 trillion. A second issue was management of fishing in South Korean waters after recent violent clashes with emboldened Chinese crews.
Yet, there’s little doubt that the main item on the agenda, at least from South Korea's perspective, was the recent succession of Kim Jong-un after the death of his father, Kim Jong-il, and the danger of increased instability on the Korean Peninsula. And, looming over all this, were concerns that mutual distrust has turned into mutual distaste. Sino-South Korean relations have, after all, been on a downward spiral since 2008.
The push by China to conduct FTA talks won agreement from Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda during his December visit to Beijing and from Lee at this month’s summit. Three-way negotiations should therefore begin at the annual trilateral summit in the spring. Given Lee’s recent success in the Korean-U.S. FTA and Noda’s later decision to try to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership, some balance is kept by negotiating in this manner with China, their principal trade partner. The leaders set a target for 2015 of $300 billion in Sino-South Korean trade, which would trail Sino-Japanese trade, but would be about twice as large on a per capita basis. Yet FTA talks aren’t expected to be easy, given agricultural sensitivities and nervousness about how China may use its increasing economic clout. Difficulty in reaching an FTA with Japan could impact South Korean willingness to proceed with China, yet avoiding an image of slighting China serves a useful purpose, especially when relations have cooled.
In seeking to engage China on North Korea, Lee was following the example of U.S. President Barack Obama, who in Hu’s state visit to the United States a year earlier had put North Korea at the top of the agenda. But whereas Obama could claim at least minimal success, Lee was in a weaker position to make his case. In January 2011, Hu sought a positive outcome in his meeting with Obama after a year of Sino-U.S. tensions, failed policies in East Asia that had damaged China’s reputation, and the November 2010 North Korean shelling of Yeonpyeong Island that had elicited a warning of military retaliation jointly by South Korea and the United States if such aggression occurred again. Even then, tense Sino-U.S. talks had gone to the final hours before China gave its approval for minimally acceptable wording. Obviously, Lee had no such leverage to persuade Hu, given South Korea’s greater dependency on China and the changing regional circumstances.
Tensions over North Korea have intensified. The Chinese insist that their policy aims to maintain peace and stability on the peninsula, prioritizing that over a process of denuclearization. While many Chinese accuse South Korea of undermining stability, they insist that its leaders express gratitude for China's efforts. On the other side, South Koreans are split between the security community, which fears that China is plotting to use the North Korean threat as a tool to reshape regional security and gain control over inter-Korean relations, and the progressive opposition, which blames Lee for taking too hard a line toward both North Korea and China while calling for more reliance on China. Lee has to tread gingerly given the unpopularity of the conservatives, as National Assembly elections will be followed by presidential ones.
Whereas China calls on South Korea to reconcile with North Korea, presumably on terms desired by the North, South Korea calls on China to use its influence on North Korea to prevent further belligerence.
Photo Credit: Office of the South Korean President
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Fu man-chu
LMB is probably the traitor who let in the American wolf into the sheep pen by the back door. More likely, he is the candidate put to power by Washington. Since his "election", Korea and North East Asia has been nothing but a hot spot full of tensions. It would not be far from wrong to ascribe these and the manufactured crisis to Washington.
Suijen
The United States had such great success engaging with Myanmar. I fail to see why the United States shouldn’t attempt the same with North Korea.
JohnX
JohnChan wrote:”John Chan
January 31, 2012 at 11:41 pm
Yes, most Chinese support CCP right now, because CCP is the best political party available right now to lead China to peace and prosperity, such bullish outlook is also applicable to the world including your nation.”
LOL, its the only Party in China right now. Try asking for a change of Government and see how that goes for you.
Oh, by the way, don’t think that what applies to China applies elsewhere. If the Chinese people are happy with Authoritarism then so be it. Though no one in my country is and even the ethnic Chinese who live here seem ok with the democratic method we use.
You complain that many commentators seem to look at China and make complaints that are not applicable as they don’t understand the Chinese people. Dont make the mistake of doing the same to us, we deal with more issues than China does and authoritarism wont suit us.
China has apparently 56 ethnic groups (many very similar), whereas our country has 91/92 ethnic groups who come from every continent or region of the world. I am not sure that your one brand of Government really will fulfill our political needs.
Thanks for the offer CCP, but no thanks.
DownRedChina
SK should modenize its arms force to: 1) protect its natural resources and 2) bring Chinese illegal fishernam to justice. SK should also execute the captain who killed SK officer. It’s time to get tough with China.
DOWN-EXTREMISM
You’d better recommending SK removing democracy and build “Die Waffen Schutzstaffel”, so to conquer entire Asia.
Godknows
How can u come up with such a GREAT idea, Mr.Down!
I found u are one trillion times wiser than current SK President, Mr.Lee, so we’d better advocate SK people elect u as the SK president of coming term.
DownRedChina
@DOWN-EXTREMISM
SK enjoys its democracy and it should remain so. SK should build its armed forces to deter any threat specifically China. SK never has intention to conquer any country. China deserves that tittle. Want examples?
@Godknows
Mr. Lee deserves the respect of SK people. The whole country is behind him. I am sure he will win next term (for sure CCP doesn’t like it).
SK man
@DownRedChina
Mr. Lee, by law, cannot run for president again this year. He will have to step down. Furthermore, to think that Koreans are huge supporters of his administration is utterly insane. Most feel that he has alienated the North and has caused a further rift between the two countries.
Buddha
Hey MR. DownRedChina,
To be honest, I quite love our country, and basically support CCP, although there’re quite a lot social problems here, but everything is on the process of improving. My parents, relatives, friends, most of them have similar attitude toward CCP. Procedural improving is really hopeful, we are tired of all kinds of political revolution suffered before, neither another revolution disaster called “democracy” if it hurts steady life improving.
I suppose you can’t understand the real situation of general Chinese people, or I really confused about your words.
DownRedChina
Hi Mr. Buddha,
So you support the regime (CCP) that house arrest/detain 6 year old school girl. Do you think deny education for 6 year old is right? You also support CCP that turns its people into evil – 18 passers watched and ignore 2 year old toddler ran over by a truck.
You also support CCP that encourage its fishermen to fish in other’s nation water and then killed people when get caught. You also support CCP that killed 70 millions people and use tanks to crush peaceful protesters in 1989. You also support a regime that had a big role in wiping out 1/3 Cambodia’s population.
John Chan
Yes, most Chinese support CCP right now, because CCP is the best political party available right now to lead China to peace and prosperity, such bullish outlook is also applicable to the world including your nation.
Butter
DownRedChina, you are really a lowlife taking cheapshots at “Buddha” who was expressing his views common in China which the CCP is just trying to support as a matter connect with its citizens. You really ought to be ashamed of yourself. You seem like a person unable to listen to other people’s viewpoints. Your seemingly “clever” arguments are in fact foolishness, irrelevant, and tedious.
DownRedChina
@Butter:
I understand your frustration, defensive, shameful and angry. You need to put everything on the table so the readers can have a real picture regarding CCP.
Jam
As dangerous as China has been it’ll probably get a lot worse before it gets better. On the other hand, communism Chinese government must be asking themselves at the same time whether they are determined to be the world’s peace-disturber.
Butter
Where did you get the silly notion that China is a “peace disturber”? You mean U.S., the global peace disturber and war monger par excellent surely?
GK
Many thanks to guys like “DownRedChina” etc, you really make us love China, and get united again, and from now on we’ll support to CCP sincerely.
Why? Because compared your ignorance and extremism, shortcomings of CCP is simply nothing.
And definitely, I’d like to support your fantasy, that’s amusing.
DownRedChina
@GK
“Many thanks to guys like “DownRedChina” etc, you really make us love China, and get united again, and from now on we’ll support to CCP sincerely.”
Absolutely. Get united again to beat up another American basketball team, get united again to watch 2 year old toddler ran over by a truck, get united again to house arrest/detain 6 year old school girl.
“Why? Because compared your ignorance and extremism, shortcomings of CCP is simply nothing.”
You called CCP killed 70 millions people and Deng ordered to crush peaceful protesters with tanks are nothing?
John Chan
Yes, most Chinese support CCP right now, because CCP is the best political party available right now to lead China to peace and prosperity, such bullish outlook is also applicable to the world including your nation.
Fabricating facts to smear others is an expression of unbalance mind, such person need to confess to his lord of worship to cleanse his polluted soul.
JKS
“there’s little doubt that the main item on the agenda, at least from South Korea’s perspective, was the recent succession of Kim Jong-un after the death of his father, Kim Jong-il, and the danger of increased instability on the Korean Peninsula” – Or so most Americans think…
In fact, the main item on the agenda from the South Korean perspective is maintaining our economy and economic well-being. Engaging China on North Korea is just one part of this – not the main item.