India has already shown that it is starting to carve out its own path in Asia. But it’s one that could create clashes with the United States.
There’s a conundrum at the heart of the Obama administration’s “pivot” toward Asia, at least as it relates to India. The United States is eager to extricate itself from military conflicts in the Greater Middle East (Iraq and Afghanistan) so it can focus on a region where, as President Barack Obama put it, “the action’s going to be.” Shoring up the U.S. strategic posture in East Asia amid China’s ascendance will entail a deepening of geopolitical cooperation between Washington and New Delhi. But the quickening withdrawal from Afghanistan will increase bilateral frictions, pushing relations in the opposite direction.
The Pentagon’s just-released strategic guidance paper calls for “investing in a long-term strategic partnership with India to support its ability to serve as a regional economic anchor and provider of security in the broader Indian Ocean region.” Both Obama during his visit to India in November 2010 and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton during her trip last summer have called on New Delhi to play a more active strategic role in East Asia.
One of the unheralded stories of the past year is how India has begun to do just that. In defiance of Chinese warnings, New Delhi asserted its rights to hydrocarbon explorations off the coast of Vietnam, laying down its own marker in the South China Sea dispute. It has moved to enhance defense and economic ties with Japan, culminating in Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko’s very productive recent visit to New Delhi. It also solidified security relations with Australia and Vietnam, and bolstered its influence in Burma vis-à-vis Beijing.
Washington and New Delhi hold regular consultations on East Asia policy, and a trilateral U.S.-India-Japan security dialogue was launched recently. A revival of quadrilateral security cooperation among the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia that briefly flowered in 2006-07 also appears likely. The expansion of Chinese power and aspiration will undoubtedly push New Delhi to align closer with the United States, though the process will neither be as smooth nor as speedy as many Americans would like.
Pushing in the other direction is the adverse effect on Indian security concerns caused by U.S. disengagement from Afghanistan. Key differences are bound to emerge between the United States and India regarding the political endgame. Looking to the exits, Washington won’t be overly concerned with the exact details of the makeup of Afghanistan or the viability of the government in Kabul. New Delhi, which has invested heavily in Hamid Karzai’s government, will be all too focused on how the strategic terrain is shifting to its detriment.
India has strong security interests in ensuring that any government in Kabul can be a bulwark against Pakistan, as well as a gateway to trade and energy links in Central Asia. Both goals would be undermined if Islamabad achieved a central role in shaping a political settlement or if a Taliban-influenced regime were to come to power.
One wonders how committed Washington will be to the current regime’s survival or the protection of Indian equities in an accommodation with the Taliban. This is all the more so as U.S. staying power is visibly waning. The security situation is likely to deteriorate as the military withdrawals that Obama announced last summer take hold and as remaining U.S. forces shift from direct combat operations to a back-stop role. A newly-minted National Intelligence Estimate reportedly is filled with pessimism about Afghanistan’s prospects.
Photo Credit: White House
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Leonard R.
The US should not expect much from India. It will go its own way, a way that is true to its history and traditions.
In the final analysis, India will be a much more reliable friend than Pakistan ever was and it will not be America’s enemy, as the PRC is today.
But on issues like Iran, India has a history of thousands of years and the US is a newcomer. It is very
unrealistic to expect India to side with the US on third country interventions. And the US would do
well to listen to what New Delhi has to say about Iran.
The US and India face the same two two hostile foreign powers, Pakistan and the PRC. That will be
enough to ensure friendship. And friendship is what both nations need in the Indian Ocean and off the
east coast of Africa.
Carlos de Souza
Well said, Leonard, very mature views.
India and the US are “natural allies”, but to expect India to be a rubber stamp of the US is unrealistic.
Sawyer
Well it’s simple… India should send troops to Afganistan if they are so worried
observer_925
@John Chan: not sure what you are smoking or swallowing, but the fact India would be just fine if Pakistan is fine with the line of control as the defacto border in Kashmir. But no Pakistani military thinks it can do an ‘Afghanistan’ in Kashmir and change the status quo in Kashmir. So it is Pakistan that has launched the Kargil war under the garb of ‘non-state actors’ when they were really Pakistani para military forces who occupied the mountains inside of Indian Kashmir. So question is what do you mean by “If India does not continue to threaten its small neighbours with invasion and obliteration with conventional and nuclear means”, please cite credible references (no CPC mouthpiece or Global Times are not in that category), why would India need to invade its neighbors when it has no claim on its neighbors’ territories (India will drop claim on Pak held Kashmir as soon as Pakistan does the same for Indian Kashmir) unlike say China which claims the whole Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh as South Tibet and part of China! In fact it is China which is issuing not so subtle threats against its smaller, less powerful neighbors, just ask India or the countries around South China sea. Fact is China is the biggest bully in Asia today and it needs to be contained.
Karl
If only the world could leave Afghanistan alone, there would be lasting peace…the root cause of this madness being Pakistan.
Pakistan has just gifted bloodshed to Afghanistan. If only those deadly Taliban producing factories in Pakistan could be halted, things would be a lot simpler. But who can explain this to maniacs in Pakistan’s military establishment. They know the language of the stick and they seem to be getting closer to it.
Then there are other stakeholders like US, India, Iran and Russia. It is imperative that Pakistan be brought to book so that everyone else can play a constructive role in Afghan peace process.
Girish
@Karl
that will happen for sure when all the guns will get pointed to Pakistan who is using terrorsim as state policy and harbering terror factory.
It is getting money and weapons from US & missiles and nuclear tech from China to continue its game. US and China are equally to be blamed for this mess where we have a country with failed economy, radicalied population, terrorist breeding factories and worlds fastest growing nuclear weapons.
That day is not far when problem called Pakistan will face the guns from all directions.
John Chan
@Girish,
If India does not continue to threaten its small neighbours with invasion and obliteration with conventional and nuclear means, Pakistan would not need to spend unproportional among of money on defense, it can spend the money on building the nation and improving the living standard of its people.
Always blame someone else for its own fault is not a sign of responsible member of international community. Such irresponsible national character definitely does not fit for larger role in the UN.
Mazo
It’s hillarious how hypocritically convenient your argument is: on one hand you say – “Always blame someone else for its own fault is not a sign of responsible member of international community” and then you say ” If India does not continue to threaten its small neighbours with invasion and obliteration with conventional and nuclear means, Pakistan would not need to spend unproportional among of money on defense, ” ! Convenient how it is India that should act “responsibily” while everybody else can be as irresponsible as possible – including China, which supports every tyrant and dictator religiously!
If Paksitan acts like a “responsible member of the international community” and stops blaming “India” for its clearly terrorist activities and rogue state behavior then there should be no problems.
hk
Girish……… you are new to this…but looks like… you can handle these 50 cents people like John Chan Huang Yang Xi etc etc etc …. They are all paid people by Communist Party of China.
Go ahead……
Karl
And China is the biggest saint in the world?
Chinese have been known to support all rougue nations on planet (Pakistan, North Korea, Iran, Libya, Syria) and anti-India terrorist groups and rogue elements in Africa. They also are known to suppress all neighbouring nations including Japan, South Korea, nations around South China sea….Not to mention bloody crackdown on peaceful Tibetan groups.
Girish
@John Chan
Pakistan inflicted four wars on India and got defected. It wages terror proxy war in Kashmir, it failed again.
Last time in 2008, ISI supported terrorist act happened in Mumbai which is now open and proved case (also acknowledged by Pakistani authority) where Pakistani terrorist was captured alive.
A terrorist “Hafez Sayeed” released after Plane hijack in India freely roam in Pakistan today and spread hatred against India and non muslims. And Pakistan government says he is a responsible PAkistani citizen. Osama was killed in Pakistan and the doctor who helped in the mission is going to be given death sentence by Pakistani authority.
Don’t forget that Chinese where kicking recently their Pakistani bothers for the terrorist coming to Xingjing province from Pakistan and creating problem.
Now tell me who is created problem? India or Pakistan?
Livng in denial is a life style of Pakistan and its people. they blame others for all their problems. But unfortunately, Chinese too are getting this bad habits who simply do not want to listen anything against Pakistan. Well, who care for Chinese words now.
India do not create problems for its neighbors. In-fact this is true for China.
We only have problems with Pakistan and that is too because Pakistani (army and ISI) want hostile relation with India as that is a reason for living for them.
Chinese authorities are fully aware how dangerous Pakistan is and its radicalized populations but unfortunately, they have provided dangerous toys like nuclear tech and missiles to the mullas who will one day attack China to and wage a Islamic jihad against religion less CCP authority.
But you know, you need to relax as they will not point their gun towards China before they are finished winning against India and the West and that will not happen.
Someone in Pakistan said “We will eat grass but will make a nuclear bomb”
so true, they are eating grass now and also have bomb.
John Chan
@Mazo,
Pakistan government is elected via voting just like in India. Labelling a neighbouring nation as tyrant, dictator, religiously, terrorist and rogue state definitely is not a good way to start behaving responsibly.
anubhav dutta
@John Chan
India has never threatened its neighbor or any country except those which are racist. It is china which claims South Vietnam’s sea territory is theirs or Taiwan is theirs or Arunachal Pradesh is theirs. Such country should be removed from UN SC permanent seat. They support violence in Syria rather than allowing UN to directly intervene there. Chinese supplied weapons to Sri Lanka during their civil war and they don’t want that there should be any intervention in violation of human rights.Indeed China itself is a racist country any there is no human rights their.
HECTOR
HOPE iNDIA WILL NOT BE USE OR ALLOW ITSELF TO BE UTILISE FOR DECLINING AMERICA PROXY WARS.
HAVING DONE THAT FOR BRITISH RAJ IN SECOND WORLD WAR IS ENOUGH.
FOOL ME FIRST TIME SHAME ON U
FOOL ME SECOND TIME SHAME ON ME
ALLEGEDLY SAID TO LATE PRESIDENT SADDAM BY BUSH
Girish
@HECTOR
India never allowed to be used even when it was dirth poor with poor economic growth. Infact it was the leader of non allign movement.
Today, India is a growing power with one of the fastest growing economy and industry and consumer market. Other Countries need India as much as India needs others. It is highly unlikely India would allow anyone to bully it and try to deviate India from its national interest.
India has always supprised those who have thought that India is dependent on them.
Girish
There is no doubt that India & US (and for that matter, other democracies in Asia) share common interests like open sea access, terrorism and Chinese adventurism and economic development in Asia etc.
Building trust and better understanding between India and US will take more time considering the hard relationship between US and India (before last years) where US has opposed India on Nuclear fronts by putting up sanctions, blacklisting its Space and defense companies, and providing money and weapons to Pakistan which ends up being used against India.
Relationship between the two countries have taken positive shape only in last 4 years where US supported nuclear deal and removed Indian defense companies from blacklist. But now US is expecting India to give privilege to US in defense deals and follow US line of international politics which is actually a root cause of all the problems.
US must not push India too much as India has its own priorities which it will continue to follow. Too much pushing will not be good for the relationship at all.
John Chan
This is surely an expensive bragging, here goes 100% price hike on the parts for C-17 and C-130 in IAF; as well as withdrawal of the USA’s sponsorship for India’s bid for permanent membership of UNSC.
Girish
@John Chan
That looks like a lovely dream to had last night..!!
Obama said, he secured 50,000 American jobs after those deals where finalized when he was in India.
ari
Part of David Karl’s thesis seems to be wishful thinking. India and Japan are not America’s natural allies in the long term. Their interests are unequivocally tied to the Asian mainland and the major countries there.
Moreover, just as Japan, as a proud big power, will not be a vassal to Washington and be in America’s orbit forever, it is equally glaring that David Karl omitted to mention New Delhi’s original siding with Moscow and Beijing – before Washington twisted its arms – in the veto against the American-led draft resolution on Syria. Similarly, its rebuff to Washington to obey its unilateral instruction to cease buying oil from Iran.
Had David Karl not self censored himself, or selectively included and excluded certain facts pertinent to his discussion, I think his article would have been a little bit more balanced.
John Chan
Censorship only happens in the nations that USA does not like and condemns, it is called media reporting guidelines distributed by the National Security Council backed by the Patriotic Act. All US citizens in the American mainstream are expected to do their patriotic bidding for the US government that is American can do no wrong. Failing to do his patriotic bidding will meet severe consequence.
David Karl just follows the reporting guidelines with his professionalism; with free market capitalism as his guiding principle, it is fully justifiable for him to make such selective reporting in order to enhance his personal gain in the American mainstream.
anubhav dutta
Dear John Chan
I think that u don’t read newspaper at all. There is more censorship in China than any other country in the world. I think u r Chinese and u don’t like that someone should criticise your country . But my friend accept this ,it is the truth that China is not a free country.
Nikhil
Interesting Point of View.