Shared wariness over China is the main reason the U.S. and Vietnam have embraced each other. But it shouldn’t be the only one.
Riding on the back of a motorbike is probably the best way to see Vietnam’s capital. The hair-raising experience lets you feel the energy on the street, the incessant buzz of small businesses, the informal sidewalk kitchens, and the surprisingly large numbers of Western tourists gawking at the fading yellow French colonial architecture. Compared to other economies in Asia, Vietnam seems a sure growth bet for the next quarter century. Yet capitalizing on that potential will task the government even as it eyes closer relations with its erstwhile enemy, the United States.
The plethora of goods, restaurants, and crowds make it easy to forget this is still a Communist-run country. Everywhere one looks, newlyweds in their wedding best pose for pictures, dotting major parks or central Hoan Kiem Lake, or clustering in front of the majestic Opera House. Officials in Vietnam seem genuinely interested in dialogue, while people on the street are invariably helpful. They pepper a visitor with questions, seeking answers about development or trying to understand what’s going on in America.
This country of 87 million has a median age of 27 years, and over 60 million of its people are between the ages of 15 and 65. Its nominal GDP per capita, according to the World Bank, was $1,224 in 2010, about a quarter of the size of China’s, but has been growing rapidly over the past decade thanks to steady growth in GDP, including a 6.8 percent growth rate in 2010. Even though China is Vietnam’s largest trade partner, trade between Vietnam and the United States increased more than six-fold from 2002 to 2010, to $18.6 billion.
Most of the Vietnamese business and trade officials I talked with were eager for Vietnam to have greater access to world markets and the modernization that it would force on Vietnam’s export sector. There was particular interest in discussing whether Vietnam, with its nearly 3,500 kilometers of coastline, can become a major logistics center for Asia. In general, officials openly acknowledge economic problems, including a volatile 18 percent inflation rate and the need to move up the value chain in production. A recent consultant group study flagged dangers to growth in Vietnam at the macro level, calling for more reform. But demand at the micro level is what will keep the economy humming.
Officials are also aware how future economic performance is tied to higher education, and of the need to adequately fund their growing universities. I visited one of Vietnam National University’s campuses, where the upbeat energy of the students stood in stark contrast with the run-down and utilitarian buildings.
The Vietnamese have successfully merged the past and future in the footprint of Hanoi. While much of the city retains its colonial charm, perhaps the most prominent symbol of development stands at the site of the old Hanoi Hilton, the downtown French prison that became notorious in America for housing downed U.S. airmen during the war. Only about a fifth of the original Hoa Lo Prison remains, and is now a museum. Covering the rest of the site, and looming over the old barracks and entry gate is the Hanoi Towers complex, hosting a Western hotel and high-end goods shops. Yet still surrounding it are temples, small coffee shops, “Made in Vietnam” clothing stores, and storefront restaurants.
A shared wariness of China has been the major reason for the United States and Vietnam to explore closer ties. Yet despite strategic concerns, the biggest obstacle to closer Washington-Hanoi ties remains politics. In particular, the two governments remain years apart on human rights issues, as well as on freedom of expression for political and religious purposes. The Communist Party shows no signs of relaxing its political hold, and is quick to squelch overt political criticism. But that doesn’t seem to impinge particularly much on how individuals choose to engage in economic activity. U.S. officials I talked with stressed the need to move slowly, not only to deal with these problems, but also because the Vietnamese remain extremely wary of getting too close to the United States and then being sacrificed on the altar of Sino-U.S. relations.
Washington's relationship with Vietnam may be one of its most delicate, yet important in the coming decades. As long as U.S. leaders are realistic about the limitations, there’s a huge area to fill with development assistance, security discussions, and trade. The welcoming attitude of Vietnamese towards Americans only reinforces the feeling that this is one country whose energy Washington should embrace.
Michael Auslin is a resident scholar in Asian and security studies at the American Enterprise Institute.
Photo Credit: U.S. State Department
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Tommy
Who cares about what? Just for national interests, VN will dance b/t USA and China for her most profits. When it comes to the wars, both China and USA knew ab VN. We beat them both, the first for countless of times during thousands years Want another 1979 lesson, chinkman? Wahahahahahhaa!
Moira G Gallaga
Vietnam has its issues with China, but they are also major trading partners. It would be definitely be in U.S. interests to deepen its engagement with Vietnam, economically and geo-politically. It would be interesting to see how Vietnam balances its relations and interests with these 2 major powers.
Scott
The enemy of our enemy is our friend.
Observer
@ vninsider
You wrote a bunch of stuffs but where are your sources to back up your statements? Show us the readers some well know neutral sources and not the ccp’s propaganda mouthpieces such as xinhua, people daily, and such.
You said this and I quote “What is left to be seen on the local markets for U.S./Western products is cheating insurance products/policies from companies such as AIG/AIA, Prudential, Manual Life that just try to draw cash from some poor and innocent people who still believe in credibility of western financial power.”. It shows that you do not have a clue about Western countries and how their people li
vninsider
@Observer: Xinhua, Global Times, People’s daily do not publish these insights about VN.
As for the point,”….U.S./Western products is cheating insurance products/policies from companies such as AIG/AIA, Prudential, Manual Life..” Go to Ho Chi Minh city and talk to anyone on the street, and tell him/her that you are from AIA or Prudential or Manual Life, they would ask you politely: “How many innocent people have you already cheated?”
After all, you probably need to live in Vietnam or in California for at least 15-20 years before you refute my comments.
Cam
I have a very well response for this Chinese in disguise but somehow the editor cut it off. What is the matter? Do we need to live in Vietnam in order to know what is going in Vietnam? Don’t you think people live outside of China in fact know more about China than locals given the infamous “great wall” in China? I was laughing almost to death to hear the Vietnamese love China and Chinese. This could be the best joke of the year.
vninsider
@cam, “best joke of the year” that’s ok. Let’s see who will have the last laugh!
Observer
@ vninsider,
I posted a long reply but it did not show up.
In short, if you really did ask any Vietnamese, they would tell you that the only country that tried and tried countless times to swallow them was the one and only bully china. Period.
Tom Tran
To be point-blank, US-Vietnam relation is the one of opportunity. It’s only viable when interest is still significant. However, it’s not long lasting, as long as the VCP is still in power. The VCP and its existence hinges on its tough image during the war. It can only survive as long as it is perceived as standing up to the world order, or at least can fool the people there about such thing. It shares the same failure as the Soviet in building a nation. It’s changing, but very slowly. As long as the VCP is there, you shouldn’t be talking about a US-Vietnam partnership. There can’t be any. The philosophy of the two with regard to practically anything, except opposing China, doesn’t converge. However, you shouldn’t be mistaken the VCP with Vietnamese people. A few percentage of the population that forms an oppressive regime cannot represent the whole nation.
vninsider
@Tom, admittedly VCP has made many mistakes.
But VCP also deserved some hard-truth credits:
a) Decisively and strategically ended the Vietnam war so that people VN can live in peace without daily bombings and killings. By the way, it was the U.S.A that abandoned South Vietnam when it knew it could not win a prolonged war. Think of the tensions between North and South Koreas for a divided Vietnam under the U.S.A. patronage if that were the case now.
b) Tactically and diplomatically pushed the U.S to end embargo so it could start opening up and grow up the economy with the world. VCP did this better than the current North Korea government.
In the recent years, overseas Vietnamese in the U.S. who fled VN 30 years ago have returned home in masses looking for medical diagnostics and treatments at home as an example. What would this briefly tell us? a) Is it an irony that living in the richest country but ordinary U.S. citizens can’t afford very basic healthcare when you are poor, out of work or face salary cut? b) Despite VCP’s errors and mistakes, living and healthcare system conditions in VN have been improved a lot.
Cam
@chinainsider,
So if you can’t afford the healthcare service in the US, and seeking healthcare services somewhere else, then you are poor or unemployed? What about millions of people from rich countries going to Thailand, Vietnam or poorer countries for healthcare services? Don’t you see it much cheaper, somewhat acceptable quality and also having a chance to visit their homeland by the way? My Korean American colleague just came back to Korea for cosmetic surgery so what does tell you? Is she poor and can’t afford the service in the US?
vninsider
@cam, “My Korean American colleague just came back to Korea for cosmetic surgery so what does tell you?” – this is besides the point of the debate. Don’t stray off the topic.
Anyway, this tells that cosmetic surgery is a luxury and very expensive in the U.S. and it is very likely NOT covered by most US health insurers. My point here is that basic healthcare like diagnostics is not affordable by many Americans.