Can Japan Break the Iran Impasse?
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Can Japan Break the Iran Impasse?

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Former Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, a key advisor on the current government’s foreign policy, is in Tehran this week, and is holding talks with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But it’s not a popular trip with some of his colleagues.

Hatoyama was prime minister for less than a year before being forced out of office in June 2010, and ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) colleagues including Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba have urged the mercurial former premier to “act prudently so as not to result in dual diplomacy that would be different from the government’s policy.”  

Hatoyama plans to be in Iran for four days, and is accompanied by two advisors. The trip is intended to look at possible ways of resolving the standoff between the West and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear activities, which are suspected as being aimed at giving the country a nuclear weapons capability. The trip, which began Saturday with a meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Salehi, was officially revealed at very short notice, but it appears that there has been an internal struggle between Hatoyama and the Japanese Foreign Ministry going on for months before the announcement. Gemba for his part denied there was a protracted rift, claiming that he was only informed of the trip last week.

Regardless, this somewhat cavalier attempt at dual diplomacy comes on the heels of a concerted effort from the Japanese government to tighten the screws on the Iranian regime. Japan continues to struggle to fully implement the strong U.S.-backed sanctions against Tehran, not least because oil shipments from Iran constitute nearly 9 percent of Japan’s total energy imports. The importance of these imports has been magnified by last year’s nuclear crisis at Fukushima, and the reduction of domestic energy sources created by the fallout. Currently only one of Japan’s 54 nuclear reactors is online, which has left Tokyo increasingly dependent on other energy sources.

However, while Japan’s reliance on oil from Iran is significant, it’s also decreasing as a result of enhanced sanctions against Tehran. Within the past year, imports from Iran to Japan have decreased nearly 20 percent as authorities in Tokyo have scrambled to comply with U.N. sanctions aimed at suffocating the Islamic Republic’s financial coffers. The United States, meanwhile, has been negotiating with Japan to allow a partial waiver by acknowledging the unique energy issues the country has faced since last year’s earthquake and tsunami. But of greater importance than crude from Iran is the fact that 85 percent of Japan’s oil imports and 25 percent of its natural gas imports traverse through the Strait of Hormuz.

This reality has prompted even constitutionally-constrained Japan to discuss the possibility of deploying its Self-Defense Forces to the Strait in the event of conflict breaking out in the region. Last month, an advisor to Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s special advisor to the Middle East suggested to a foreign policy symposium that Tokyo should be prepared to dispatch its SDF to the region as a worst case scenario. Akihisa Nagashima, who is also the senior director of the Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs, noted that a conflict in the Persian Gulf would “affect Japanese national interests.” Japan’s Constitution bars it from offensive combat roles, but there are loopholes. Nagashima explained that “some operations are authorized” under SDF legislation, pointing to the special measures law that governs SDF counterterrorism and anti-piracy activities.

Comments
5
Philip Howard
April 10, 2012 at 06:26

Great article.

That Japan has dual diplomacy (between the DPJ and MOFA at least) shouldn’t be surprising. Japan’s ministries were established with the very purpose of curtailing the power of democratically elected politicians, since the assumption was that they were corrupt and couldn’t be relied upon to look after the true interests of the Japanese state. Because of that, even today, briefing of media against politicians by the ministries, withholding of information, and defenestration of any elected politician who has too much success in developing an independent policy line, remain commonplace. It’s not how a civil service is supposed to work in a democratic society, but in Japan, that’s what we’ve got and it’s unlikely to change soon. In the mean time, the media play their part in continuing the system. It’s one of the reasons why Japan’s politicians are forever branded “weak” (especially the strong ones!) It’s helpful to remember that Japan’s politicians don’t have anything like the latitude or freedom of manoeuvre that are taken for granted by politicians elsewhere in the developed world.

hass
April 10, 2012 at 06:00

Actually Iran only started enriching to 20% as a result of the US interference with Iran’s legal acquisition of reactor fuel for a totally safeguarded reactor that makes isotopes for cancer patients, and the Iranians have repeatedly stated that if they’re just allowed to buy the fuel then they would stop 20% enrichment.

The “nuclear threat from Iran” is just a US pretext for regime change, just like “WMDs in Iraq” was a pretext.

hass
April 10, 2012 at 05:58

Japan’s imports from Iran have NOT been reduced. Oil is fungible. They’re simply getting the same oil from intermediaries.

Tum.
April 9, 2012 at 18:55

I’ll fix this when I come back. Japan can handle oil sanctions if they are offset by other things. The idea is to use the global economy to spread the load, and ensure that countries give up what they are most capable of giving up.

Remember: the price of oil at the global level does not need to be the price at the domestic level, and we can temporarily subsidise it with offsets from other industries. We just need to use some supply and demand tricks to ‘fake’ a lower oil price.

Firoz Mahmoud
April 9, 2012 at 18:43

Washington and Tel Aviv seemed intent on having a war with Teheran to bring it down to its knees. What do they want? Iran has no bomb and have stated they intent to enrich uranium up to 20% and stop there. What more can be said to satisfy Washington? Destroy the nuclear plants and reactors? That would be like capitulating to Washington; A surrender without a war. Whatever for? Iran is a nation. Nations have identify, pride and dignity. What does Washington want therefore? Ride roughshod over Iran and make it its vassal then only it is satisfied. I regret, it won’t be that easy. Washington is a war-monger. It is as simple as that. Who next after Iran?

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