The Philippines is hopelessly mismatched against China in pure military terms. But there are historical reasons why it won't back down in the South China Sea.
Last month, I wrote a column for Global Times in which I observed that a dominant Chinese Navy lets China’s leadership deploy unarmed surveillance and law-enforcement vessels as it implements policy in the ongoing stand off at Scarborough Shoal. It can flourish a small, unprovocative seeming stick while holding the big stick – overwhelming naval firepower, and thus the option of escalating – in reserve.
That, I wrote, translates into “virtual coercion and deterrence” vis-à-vis lesser Asian powers. If weak states defy Beijing, they know what may come next. Global Times readers evidently interpreted this as my prophesying that Southeast Asian states will despair at the hopeless military mismatch in the South China Sea – and give in automatically and quickly during controversies like Scarborough Shoal.
Not so. Diplomacy and war are interactive enterprises. Both sides – not just the strong – get a vote. Manila refuses to vote Beijing’s way.
Military supremacy is no guarantee of victory in wartime, let alone in peacetime controversies. The strong boast advantages that bias the competition in their favor. But the weak still have options. Manila can hope to offset Beijing’s advantages, and it has every reason to try. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it? China has been the weaker belligerent in every armed clash since the 19th century Opium Wars. It nevertheless came out on top in the most important struggles.
That the weak can vanquish the strong is an idea with a long pedigree. Roman dictator Quintus Fabius fought Hannibal – one of history’s foremost masters of war – to a standstill precisely by refusing to fight a decisive battle. Demurring let Fabius – celebrated as “the Delayer” – marshal inexhaustible resources and manpower against Carthaginian invaders waging war on Rome’s turf.
Fabius bided his time until an opportune moment. Then he struck.
Similarly, sea power theorist Sir Julian Corbett advised naval commanders to wage “active defense” in unfavorable circumstances. Commanders of an outmatched fleet could play a Fabian waiting game, lurking near the stronger enemy fleet yet declining battle. In the meantime they could bring in reinforcements, seek alliances with friendly naval powers, or deploy various stratagems to wear down the enemy’s strength. Ultimately they might reverse the naval balance, letting them risk a sea fight – and win.
Victory through delay represents time-honored Chinese practice. Mao Zedong built his concept of protracted war on stalling tactics, and, like Corbett, he dubbed his strategic vision “active defense.” For both theorists, active defense was about prolonging wars to outlast temporarily superior opponents.
Mao pointed out that China boasted innate advantages over the Japanese Army that occupied Manchuria and much of China during the 1930s. It merely needed time to convert latent power – abundant natural resources and manpower in particular – into usable military power. Mao’s Red Army later overcame stronger Nationalist forces by winning over popular support, and with it the opportunity to tap resources, establish base areas in the countryside, and the like.
Good things came to those who waited.
So there’s some precedent for Philippine leaders to hope for diplomatic success at Scarborough Shoal. The Philippine military is a trivial force with little chance of winning a steel-on-steel fight. But like lesser powers of the past, Manila can appeal to law, to justice, and to powerful outsiders capable of tilting the balance its way. Sure enough, Philippine officials have advocated submitting the dispute to the Law of the Sea Tribunal and invoked a longstanding U.S.-Philippine mutual defense pact.
Despite all of this, the deck remains heavily stacked against Manila. Why persevere in defying China, with its overwhelming physical might? Thucydides would salute the Filipinos’ pluck. The Greek historian chronicled the Peloponnesian War, the protracted 5th century BC struggle between Athens and Sparta. One of Thucydides’ best-known precepts is that “fear, honor, and interest” represent “three of the strongest motives” driving societies’ actions.
In one infamous episode, Athenian emissaries inform the leaders of Melos, a small island state, that “the strong do as they will and the weak suffer what they must” when their interests collide. They demand submission. The Melians balk, but have no hope of help from Sparta or any other rescuer. When they remain defiant anyway, the Athenians put the men to the sword while enslaving the women and children.
Fear, honor, and interest animate small states like Melos and the Philippines as much as they do superpowers like Athens and China. Maritime claims are a matter of self-interest for Filipinos. They are also a matter of honor. Beijing can't expect Manila to simply tally up the balance of forces, acknowledge it faces a hopeless mismatch, and buckle. Philippine leaders can solicit foreign support, and they know Beijing has no Melian option.
Why admit defeat prematurely, any more than Fabius or Mao did?
James Holmes is an associate professor of strategy at the US Naval War College. The views voiced here are his alone.
Photo Credit: U.S. Navy
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Pepot
I am impressed reading your column but here's one more you forget to mention.Yes it a huge mismatch in terms of Naval Power but nowadays, there are many advancements on deadly Missiles that can hit any target at sea or islands which has a range of 300 miles.Actually the Philippines should invest on weapons to fight an assymetric type of warfare. For now buying a warships are too expensive that the Philippine government cannot afford.Philippines has a big military advantage in terms of targeting any enemy ships around West Phillippine Sea of China Sea.Such missiles are the U.S. Harpoon and Tomahawks, and Russian P-80 Yakhount Just install this following missiles on a mobile missile launchers along the coast of Palawan island and the coastline of Zambales.A defense analyst in the U.S. (Mr. F. chang) has wrote this analysis and to me it will give the Philippines much more fighting chance if shooting would erupt at the West Philippines Sea. You do not need a warship and soldiers to fight this bullying Chinese ships. Besides fighting them with a deadly anti ship missiles is much more safer and winnable than sending a warships and soldiers.
Tom
One thing the glorious People's military may want to keep in mind is that unlike unarmed protesters and Buddhist monks, the Phillipinos will actually be shooting back.
kong
w/ out of order gun
Errol
Our AFP is wishy-washy at times, but give it time. We'll get there.
Ric
I see the Chinese trolls and members of the "50-Cent Army" are out in force here, just as they are on all other websites and forums that have even the slightest thing to do with China.
Or rather, there are only a few of them here, but what they lack in numbers and intelligence, they make up for with their post count. They probably believe that if they post enough, it will hide the fact that they really have nothing substantive to say.
And as usual, the Chinese warmongers continue to trumpet their supposed military superiority over the Philippines, thus proving further that for the Chinese, it's not about right and wrong, it's all about power.
The Chinese warmongers here seem confident that no one will intervene on behalf of the Philippines if China attacks. Hitler also believed that no one would intervene on behalf of Poland. Look how well that turned out for him.
Edgardo Francisco
No argument here. Just random opinions:
Yes, the Philippine Territory was a European creation (east indies/las islas filipinas etc.)
- Irrelevant, a lot of nations were born that way.
Yeah, China is overwhelmingly powerful both in might and influence.
- Irrelevant, the Philippines will scrap with anyone(foolhardy, I admit. But admirable).
The Philippines is unstable?
uh…so? China cannot claim utopian status either.
War? Seriously? Does anyone think China would actually risk halting it’s growth with a costly and risky war when all the western powers are looking for reasons to do exactly that and weaken an economic threat?
Please, don’t make the same mistake Imperial Japan did. Don’t make enemies in our own neighborhood.
You have 4000 years of wisdom under yoir belt for goodness’ sake.
Also, although this might seem naive, has China never experienced the frustration and indignation that one feels when stronger powers threaten it’s lands and sovereignity? If yes, why apply it to others? Well the answer’s obvious. Why bother asking? Because I believe it’s better to appeal to humanity rather than start a fight with much to lose and (relatively) little to gain.
Sigma6
Yupp… China can only delay absorbing the fact that WEST Philippine Sea is Philippines territory hehehe
They can also wipe their snotty story with their maps while doing Fabian tactics, its what they do best… deflect from the TRUTH hahahaha
We Filipinos will stand proud with honor and interest but not with fear. hehehe
kong
w/ out of order warship
Cyrus
w/ out order english, common please use proper english so you would be coherent and we can understand what you are trying to say.
intellectual merc
I’m so glad that the prc pays bloggers like john chan and stop pinoy etc… i mean, imagine the effect of their rethorics if they paid people who actually know what they’re talking about. I guess the quality of speech and diplomacy deteriorates when the freedom of the press and speech has been deprived to a nation for far too long…
Tiu
Chinese here. China and Philippines wont go to war, this is more of a political.
War between Asian's are far from reality nowadays.
Maybe war with aliens from out of space lol :-D
Chris
China and the Philippines are nation states like Jupiter and Mars are planets-technically correct… but not a reflection of reality. China has a population the size of the entire continent of Europe. This means China has continent sized worldwide interests. Everyone needs to internalize this reality. Some say "Take China to the ICJ" or the UN. I promise you China will not be judged and scolded by western created "International" entities through western written "international laws". Not going to happen. Here's another reality to deal with, China has privileged interests in the South CHINA Sea. The US, UN, EU or tooth fairy is not going to come galloping to the rescue of the Philippines or any other nations over a bunch of rocks and shoals. Telling these nations otherwise is tantamount to diplomatic malpractice… and clarity about the reality of the situation is badly needed. China needs an area of strategic space… in which it wields privileged influence if we are to have peace in the western Pacific. China can be either the basis for calm… or it can be a massively destructive force of instability. The choice is plain.
Cyrus
Chris here is an ounce of reality as well.
Most of the world trade passes through the South China Sea, which means the Japanese and Americans have keen interest of keeping the South China Sea an International Sea because of the said trade.
Another Reality, Japan and the Philippines are Mutual Defense Treaty Allies of the United States in short any war by China against either States is considered as an attack against the United States of America the Largest Military Power in the world by far. Notwithstanding NATO.
Schminner
If there's going to be a war, the Philippines will unleash Manny Pacquiao on them Chinese.
eagle from davao
From philippine perspective and historical ties with china,we consider them as distant relatives ,friends and trading partners. We have no issues against them. But this perspective changed when they start claiming which they never occupied, nor claimed nor never been theirs.
Now, we consider china military buildup as a real ,present and clear threat to us. Although we don't have the capability right now, we can build a minimum defense capability that will prevent china holding to any island that they will forcefully take from us. They can grab but they can't hold it. We will destroy anything that they will claim which is ours.
If china will change their policy, then they can expect a change of our attitude towards china. By the way, I am part malay,part indonesian, a part aeta, a part spanish,a part chinese , a part indian by blood and ancestry. I am for peace and stabiltiy and desire to kept our friendship with china and with our neighbors.