The Philippines is hopelessly mismatched against China in pure military terms. But there are historical reasons why it won't back down in the South China Sea.
Last month, I wrote a column for Global Times in which I observed that a dominant Chinese Navy lets China’s leadership deploy unarmed surveillance and law-enforcement vessels as it implements policy in the ongoing stand off at Scarborough Shoal. It can flourish a small, unprovocative seeming stick while holding the big stick – overwhelming naval firepower, and thus the option of escalating – in reserve.
That, I wrote, translates into “virtual coercion and deterrence” vis-à-vis lesser Asian powers. If weak states defy Beijing, they know what may come next. Global Times readers evidently interpreted this as my prophesying that Southeast Asian states will despair at the hopeless military mismatch in the South China Sea – and give in automatically and quickly during controversies like Scarborough Shoal.
Not so. Diplomacy and war are interactive enterprises. Both sides – not just the strong – get a vote. Manila refuses to vote Beijing’s way.
Military supremacy is no guarantee of victory in wartime, let alone in peacetime controversies. The strong boast advantages that bias the competition in their favor. But the weak still have options. Manila can hope to offset Beijing’s advantages, and it has every reason to try. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it? China has been the weaker belligerent in every armed clash since the 19th century Opium Wars. It nevertheless came out on top in the most important struggles.
That the weak can vanquish the strong is an idea with a long pedigree. Roman dictator Quintus Fabius fought Hannibal – one of history’s foremost masters of war – to a standstill precisely by refusing to fight a decisive battle. Demurring let Fabius – celebrated as “the Delayer” – marshal inexhaustible resources and manpower against Carthaginian invaders waging war on Rome’s turf.
Fabius bided his time until an opportune moment. Then he struck.
Similarly, sea power theorist Sir Julian Corbett advised naval commanders to wage “active defense” in unfavorable circumstances. Commanders of an outmatched fleet could play a Fabian waiting game, lurking near the stronger enemy fleet yet declining battle. In the meantime they could bring in reinforcements, seek alliances with friendly naval powers, or deploy various stratagems to wear down the enemy’s strength. Ultimately they might reverse the naval balance, letting them risk a sea fight – and win.
Victory through delay represents time-honored Chinese practice. Mao Zedong built his concept of protracted war on stalling tactics, and, like Corbett, he dubbed his strategic vision “active defense.” For both theorists, active defense was about prolonging wars to outlast temporarily superior opponents.
Mao pointed out that China boasted innate advantages over the Japanese Army that occupied Manchuria and much of China during the 1930s. It merely needed time to convert latent power – abundant natural resources and manpower in particular – into usable military power. Mao’s Red Army later overcame stronger Nationalist forces by winning over popular support, and with it the opportunity to tap resources, establish base areas in the countryside, and the like.
Good things came to those who waited.
So there’s some precedent for Philippine leaders to hope for diplomatic success at Scarborough Shoal. The Philippine military is a trivial force with little chance of winning a steel-on-steel fight. But like lesser powers of the past, Manila can appeal to law, to justice, and to powerful outsiders capable of tilting the balance its way. Sure enough, Philippine officials have advocated submitting the dispute to the Law of the Sea Tribunal and invoked a longstanding U.S.-Philippine mutual defense pact.
Despite all of this, the deck remains heavily stacked against Manila. Why persevere in defying China, with its overwhelming physical might? Thucydides would salute the Filipinos’ pluck. The Greek historian chronicled the Peloponnesian War, the protracted 5th century BC struggle between Athens and Sparta. One of Thucydides’ best-known precepts is that “fear, honor, and interest” represent “three of the strongest motives” driving societies’ actions.
In one infamous episode, Athenian emissaries inform the leaders of Melos, a small island state, that “the strong do as they will and the weak suffer what they must” when their interests collide. They demand submission. The Melians balk, but have no hope of help from Sparta or any other rescuer. When they remain defiant anyway, the Athenians put the men to the sword while enslaving the women and children.
Fear, honor, and interest animate small states like Melos and the Philippines as much as they do superpowers like Athens and China. Maritime claims are a matter of self-interest for Filipinos. They are also a matter of honor. Beijing can't expect Manila to simply tally up the balance of forces, acknowledge it faces a hopeless mismatch, and buckle. Philippine leaders can solicit foreign support, and they know Beijing has no Melian option.
Why admit defeat prematurely, any more than Fabius or Mao did?
James Holmes is an associate professor of strategy at the US Naval War College. The views voiced here are his alone.
Photo Credit: U.S. Navy
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Dino Y
Isn’t this article actually relevant for Vietnam rather than the Philippines? The Philippines is mostly the US’ mouthpiece in South China Sea, with no will and capacity to stand against the Chinese. It is Vietnam that stands against the Chinese on its own, irrespective of outside support, employing Fabius’ and Mao’s strategies to perfection and defying Thucydides’ dictum.
andres
It is a sad reality for Filipino People to accept it, because some of it’s official in govt. had been dealing and betraying Filipino for a long time now Agents of country with interest knows that they can buy Officials or Information.
It’s Time for Filipino People to Purges it government full of pest and traitors.
mishmael
Sure, the Philippines can hope to draw this out, but before you get all disney-eyed remember that China is also playing to long game, one which is far longer than the Philippines can hope to match.
The author explains how the Philippines can hope to reach a tolerable outcome, but the author’s analysis can equally apply to China, which means that China is at least as determined (if not probably much more) as the Philippines in “winning” the dispute. Long, drawn-out political campaigns against China like the TIbetan and Taiwanese independence movements have so far been basically ineffective. I expect China to use the same playbook involving diplomatic pressure, economic snubs, and perhaps open boycotts to much the same effect.
Ultimately, I don’t really see how it is admirable to waste energy, resources, and valuable political capital on lost causes. SOme may disagree with me, but I think the Philippines has much more important problems than the ownership of Scarborough reef.
Jam
But then what does the Philippines planning to do after getting the sovereign ownership to that island?
It can’t even manage the 7,107 islands how much more getting another one.
Another corruption and secret resources of the politicians involve. Sad.
Things seems meaningless.
Didi
With a massive land mass way way bigger than the 7,107 islands and father from China than the Philippines, what will China do with a bunch of uninhabitable rocks?
Yes, those are rocks, not islands
John Chan
Majority of people lived in those 7107 islands do not know they belong to a European created entity called the Philippines, they live in poverty and detached from the Manila which is kleptocracy.
UN must help people in those seven thousand islands to establish their own nations. Arbitrarily assigning those indigenous people to an artificial entity is not right.
Godaveri
hi John,
How about first establishing, new countries called Tibet,Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia. They won’t be tiny as those Island that you can bully.
John Chan
@Godaveri,
Tibet, Xingjiang and Inner Mongolia are happy members of China, meanwhile there are insurgents in Philippines wanting to break free from the kleptocracy regime in Manila. The UN should establish some no-fly zones in the Philippines for those freedom fighters.
Sin Lok
@John Chan
You don’t know the real Filipinos John you are not qualified to make that statement!
When we will you have your own opinion John don’t you ever get tired of the Chinese Communist Party holding your tongue!
Cyrus
John do you even know the history of the Philippines and how we fought repeatedly for Independence from foreign yoke?
I’m sure you did not, so I am not sure you have the authority in saying that the Philippines is a product of the West. If that is the case islands in the Philippines would have scrambled and made alliances with Japan after US defeat in Bataan and Corregidor. Instead what happened? Filipino’s fought against the Japanese greatly outgunned.
Kangmin Zheng
@John Chan
“Tibet, Xingjiang and Inner Mongolia are happy members of China”
How do you explain people set themselves on fire in Tibet?
John Chan
@Sin Lok,
All anti-China bloggers are non Chinese, but that didn’t stop them from making baseless narratives about China and smearing China non-stop. Your attempt to silence me surly matches the autocratic kleptocratic characteristics of Philippines.
John Chan
@Kangmin Zheng,
Few cult monks set themselves on fire in Tibet because they were misled by the 14th DL and for the rewards paid by the CIA.
99.9999% of the Tibetans in China are free from the inhumane theocratic serfdom imposed on them by those insane monks from the day of their birth, their life expectance has doubled, and their living standard has improved in multiples; if you cannot say they are happy members of China, what else can you call it? Using few disgruntling monks as examples to smear the happiness and advancement of the rest of the Tibetans is behaviour of predatory imperialist with insidious intent.
USA has largest prison population in the world, please explain how can you did not do a thing to condemn USA’s poor human rights records?
Sin Lok
@John Chan
Autocratic Kleptocratic seems to describe more the Chinese Government. The difference between you and me is we can do something about it,thats why we elected China’s most loved Filipino President Benigno Aquino. If you did try to replace your Government you probably end up being crushed by a Tank. By the way I’m
part Chinese.
The Truth
Oh come on… Do you also know about our history? It was the Chinese who delayed the Japanese invasion in southeast Asia… many Japanese were tied up there to launch a full-scale attack… And you said the Filipinos fought the Japanese outgunned?… What about the Chinese???… Outgunned that some division only had to use swords instead… And you said the Filipinos spent many years fighting for independence?? Well, China had US, UK, Germany, France, Holland, and so on colonized it and spent even more years to fight for independence… oh well but it was the KMT of China (what is now Taiwan) which did many of them, not the communists… :P
Imran
we can encourage investments and from your statement alone. WHAT WILL CHINA DO TO THOSE SHOALS? suck the life out of it and spread more chaos around the world?
Leonard R.
As soon as possible, Manila should lease this rock to Exxon or to a Russian petroleum exploration company. In fact, Russia is a good match for the Scarborough Shoal. It already has interests a short distance away in Vietnam.
Let Hu Jintao fight with Putin. If not – lease it to Exxon or Shell.
If it’s America’s fight — then now is the time to fight it.
Zaps
above all else, what the two parties is missing through their thinking is common sense, it’s clear that Scarborough Shoal is close to the Philippines, yet the only way to resolve this problem is through negotiation to the international court. That China refused to, from the very beginning, not all things should be resolved through war and tension, it should be resolved in a peaceful way.
John Chan
@Zaps,
The Philippines is the only one using war ships and armed soldiers to harass Chinese fishermen, it is an act of aggression and banditry. China has been calling for negotiation decades. It is wrong for you to spread misinformation.
long
Not true,
the Chinese have shot, beat up Vietnamese fishermen brutally for years. Chinese navy is the most inhumane ones.
John Chan
@long,
Stop Vietnamese from using poison, explosive and drag net to destroy the South China Sea ecosystem is not beating up Vietnamese greedy fishermen.
Cyrus
@JC and China harvesting Coral’s and Giant Clams is not destroying the eco-system laughable!
patt castro
at 2020, chines communist will scheduled to collapsed. if you shoot Philippine boat right now, the communist collapsed immediately, there be a revolt within china.. Remember mongloid, Philippines Has True God of Israel, God of Moses, God of Abraham, and his SonJesus Christ.. god is on Side of Us..No chines vessel can invade philies, God will not allow that.
acquiat
John chan may be you doesn't kew that your country china is the first country to vanish in earth, If you read the revelation in the bible testified by the most holy from heaven, your country which is the land of dragon will divide into four. Where do you think you and your copatriot will go, of course in the opened pit. Well it is not my own version of telling you the truth but testimony of creator.
Rem
@John Chan
Tibet, Xingjiang and Inner Mongolia are “happy” members of China?
Who are you kidding?
Greedy Vietnamese using poison, explosive and drag net to destroy the South China Sea ecosystem?
You might as well have been speaking for Chinese fishermen. Do note that the Philippines has documented countless times the incidents of illegal poaching of endangered species and destructive fishing practices by Chinese fishermen who stray into Philippine waters.
John Chan
To the Philippines:
China is preparing war over South China Sea shoal. Guangzhou military region, the South China Sea fleet and other units have entered a state of war preparedness. PLAN is preparing for action and that the Guangzhou military command in the south of the country is on a war footing.
John Chan
@”John Chan” the impostor,
How much can one believe an impostor?
Cyrus
We have experienced our share of that analogy. Filipinos VS Spain during the Philippine Revolution; Filipinos VS Americans in the Filipino American War; Filipinos VS Japanese Second World War.
I do not think Philippines would back down, mainly because if you give an inch they would take a mile.
John Chan
@Cyrus,
USA is pointing a big gun behind the back of that hippie president of the Philippines, CIA and the Philippines military will pull the trigger if he backs down.
There is not a single inch belongs to the Philippines, therefore there is no mile for the Philippines to give.
Juan Dela Cruz
@John Chan
dont forget the Korean War especially on the battle of the Yultong Bridge, China lost thousands of chinese soldiers while the Philippines lost only about 3-10 soldiers.
Dude, it doesnt matter hwo many you are or how modernize your army is, it’s the skill of each soldier. Well, because of the ongoing fight against rebels on Mindanao, almost all of our soldiers are war veteran.
Dawn
@John Chan: Funny you have an English name. Like China’s identity crisis.
Juan
Do your worst China, and we’ll do our best.
applesauce
only the chinese civilian ships are involved at this point, the military will only be involved if and only if pn shoots first
i prefer a peaceful solution
Didi
Why not take it to the ITLOS or ICJ? Scardey cat China
John Chan
@Didi,
Why doesn’t Philippines take its complain to ITLOS or ICJ? Nobody is stopping Philippines.
Ying and Yang
Civilian ships? More like military ship disguised as civilian ships to allow legitimacy. If something happens, China can claim it was “attacked” first.
John Chan
@Ying and Yang,
You can defend Philippines’ interest, but fabricating evidence will discredit your position, and make you a laughing stock.
Ying and Yang
Oh, come on… EVERYBODY knows that China fabricated evidences in order to brainwash its own mass and whipping up nationalism based on falsehood. It’s all about robbing and beating the gong at the same time.
Dawn
Fabricated? The whole world knows China’s notoriety for faked goods and utter ignorance of copyright laws. If China does indeed have that 1279 map, then why not let the international experts look at it and verify its authenticity? It’s just another fake.
php
John Chan
May 15, 2012 at 7:35 am
"The Philippines is an European creation without the locals’ participation, that’s why so many insurgents in the Philippines fighting for independence. The Philippines must be put forward to ICJ to be determined whether it is a legitimate entity."
@john chan
well the United States of America is the same way…the Native Americans are almost gone..caucasians are from EUROPE, the BLACKS from Africa, Hispanics from South America..so to what you have written about "EUROPEAN CREATION…" and because of this, according to you , it means that United States should be put forward to ICJ to determine if USA is a legitimate entity?
scdad07
Much credit to the author’s spirit that the weak might still overcome. Many historical facts pointed to such struggles, while many more had disastrous results.
Example against the odds:
Mao refused the choice handed to him by the USA and Russia to divide China into 2, with Mao to the north of Yantze river and Chiang south of it. If both power could divide Germany, who could dare to say ‘NO’.
That brought full civil war into China with KMT’s armies well equipped with US weapons plus bombers, tanks, warships, communications and intelligence.
Cuba, under the influence of Soviet, agreed to the deployment of USSR nuclear missiles on her soil. 50 years later, we still await for a diplomatic break through. Was Cuba setup and later abandoned by Soviet?
The ‘advice to a weaker state’ of this article has been well practiced and demonstrated by Afghanistan. How long should Afghanistan citizens wait?
If US can provide Philippines at least on par to Israel’s $3.1 billion for FY2013, I agree Philippines can wait forever.
applesauce
even with an extra 3.1 billion a year pn would still be hopelessly outgunned and there is no reason for the U.S to give, the U.S would have far more to lose(in terms of cooperation with regards to iran, nk and such) than to gain in this case
Scott Cameron
As an American living in the Philippines I realize that the Philippines will never give in to another colonial or occupying force. An example was the Japanese invasion of the Philippines in WWII and the heroic way so many of the Philippine people fought, particularly the Filipino scouts. The president , P'Noy is making the right decisions as this article asserts and letting the world court look at the total disregard of Philippine rights, including their 200 mile zone, which includes the disputed islands. They're doing the same to Vietnam and Japan, which will NOT take it from China or anyone else. Should be interesting to see how it comes out.
Wang
You think that China even cares what the Philippines do or say on this dispute?
If China had its way, they would enslave the Philippines just as they do to its own people, only the power of the Americans in the region is keeping China from doing it.
I salute the bravery of the Philippino people, you are a fine example to how humanity should behave.
bart
Tnx! We may be outgunned and all. But all we can say is PHILIPPINES is not TIBET! If worst comes to worst, we will fight till the end cause we have no other option. Unless the fight is only in the seas, we can’t fight them there cause we don’t have the vessels. :)
Morrow Bay Settler
There is a fundamental difference between the Philippines and China, that is freedom. The Communist Party needs to behave as a true super power responsibly to gain respect. Unfortunately communism does not know what those guiding principles are. So not only do they lie and deceive the world but its own people also.
applesauce
nope not the Philippines in particular, but rather the rest of the world(where it does a lot of business), hence why only the civilian ships are involved and PN’s 3 old ex-US coast guard ships are not yet sitting on the bottom of the sea.
in addition get your facts straight, the U.S actually colonize the Philippines at one point, china did not and has never claimed the Philippines. and the rocks in question were never a part of the Philippines, when the U.S took control from Spain the treaty had specific lines that states what the “Philippines” actually consisted of and it does not include the current disputed area.
june
the PHILIPPINES is NOT TIBET! get out of our land!
John Chan
The Philippines is an European creation without the locals’ participation, that’s why so many insurgents in the Philippines fighting for independence. The Philippines must be put forward to ICJ to be determined whether it is a legitimate entity.
ken
money and military power wins. not talks
Dawn
Perhaps we should look at China itself and see whether it’s a legal entity. Last time I looked, it didn’t have a constitution.
Sleeper
One thing I learned is that us humans being human can never get satisfied.
Most people may not know that the true reason why all this is happening is because of oil. There are estimates that says that there are over a hundred billion barrels of oil. One Chinese estimate puts possible oil reserves as high as 213 billion barrels – 10 times the proven reserves of the US. The Chinese badly needs this to fuel their rapid expansion as the sole global superpower. Of course the Philippines wouldn't just give up the islands.
Right now the Chinese has launched this ineffective coercive warfare which will stay ineffective until the day diplomacy is nothing but yesterdays norm. Fortunately that will never happen.
Another thing to point out is that China will never attack the US vice versa. The US depends a lot on china to stabilize their economy and minimize inflation rate to a miniscule level; and if China attacks, they will be obliterated within three weeks without its allies participation. Let's face it we all need each other at one point or another.
Mabuhay tayong lahat !
alex
those ROCKS are part of the Philippine economic zone!
chrizz
thanks. we Filipinos are more in diplomacy. we don't want war with other countries. We are a friendly nation. Let sit it and talk by using a multilateral solution. Peace not War.
awaw
I favor Chinese invasion. And I say this a proud pinoy. This country is in the gutter. Pinoys simply cant run a country of its own. We missed out on Spanish rule, on American rule, (dutch, british on the small sides). IN a few decades China will become massive economically.
I personally believe its time to sell to China so that the coming generations will live better lifestyles. Its about time we become Chinese citizens.
We would have been better off as an American colony, as American citizens. However, hambugs from time past thought they knew better and wanted out of American rule. Guess what, time has proven that we should have been better being with Americans
USNavyBT
I can see their point with the illegal activities that it brought to Olongapo and Angles City but I think that the local police need to be involved more to bust it up. I've been to Olongapo many times and police presence was minimal. As for being a US possession, I think its a pipe dream, a long shot. If the US was more financially stable and could handle the debt load, we'd do it in a heartbeat. Subic Bay is vital to the security of the region and I'm glad the US Navy is coming back. China will not be the bully it wants to be with the US on your side.