The Philippines is hopelessly mismatched against China in pure military terms. But there are historical reasons why it won't back down in the South China Sea.
Last month, I wrote a column for Global Times in which I observed that a dominant Chinese Navy lets China’s leadership deploy unarmed surveillance and law-enforcement vessels as it implements policy in the ongoing stand off at Scarborough Shoal. It can flourish a small, unprovocative seeming stick while holding the big stick – overwhelming naval firepower, and thus the option of escalating – in reserve.
That, I wrote, translates into “virtual coercion and deterrence” vis-à-vis lesser Asian powers. If weak states defy Beijing, they know what may come next. Global Times readers evidently interpreted this as my prophesying that Southeast Asian states will despair at the hopeless military mismatch in the South China Sea – and give in automatically and quickly during controversies like Scarborough Shoal.
Not so. Diplomacy and war are interactive enterprises. Both sides – not just the strong – get a vote. Manila refuses to vote Beijing’s way.
Military supremacy is no guarantee of victory in wartime, let alone in peacetime controversies. The strong boast advantages that bias the competition in their favor. But the weak still have options. Manila can hope to offset Beijing’s advantages, and it has every reason to try. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it? China has been the weaker belligerent in every armed clash since the 19th century Opium Wars. It nevertheless came out on top in the most important struggles.
That the weak can vanquish the strong is an idea with a long pedigree. Roman dictator Quintus Fabius fought Hannibal – one of history’s foremost masters of war – to a standstill precisely by refusing to fight a decisive battle. Demurring let Fabius – celebrated as “the Delayer” – marshal inexhaustible resources and manpower against Carthaginian invaders waging war on Rome’s turf.
Fabius bided his time until an opportune moment. Then he struck.
Similarly, sea power theorist Sir Julian Corbett advised naval commanders to wage “active defense” in unfavorable circumstances. Commanders of an outmatched fleet could play a Fabian waiting game, lurking near the stronger enemy fleet yet declining battle. In the meantime they could bring in reinforcements, seek alliances with friendly naval powers, or deploy various stratagems to wear down the enemy’s strength. Ultimately they might reverse the naval balance, letting them risk a sea fight – and win.
Victory through delay represents time-honored Chinese practice. Mao Zedong built his concept of protracted war on stalling tactics, and, like Corbett, he dubbed his strategic vision “active defense.” For both theorists, active defense was about prolonging wars to outlast temporarily superior opponents.
Mao pointed out that China boasted innate advantages over the Japanese Army that occupied Manchuria and much of China during the 1930s. It merely needed time to convert latent power – abundant natural resources and manpower in particular – into usable military power. Mao’s Red Army later overcame stronger Nationalist forces by winning over popular support, and with it the opportunity to tap resources, establish base areas in the countryside, and the like.
Good things came to those who waited.
So there’s some precedent for Philippine leaders to hope for diplomatic success at Scarborough Shoal. The Philippine military is a trivial force with little chance of winning a steel-on-steel fight. But like lesser powers of the past, Manila can appeal to law, to justice, and to powerful outsiders capable of tilting the balance its way. Sure enough, Philippine officials have advocated submitting the dispute to the Law of the Sea Tribunal and invoked a longstanding U.S.-Philippine mutual defense pact.
Despite all of this, the deck remains heavily stacked against Manila. Why persevere in defying China, with its overwhelming physical might? Thucydides would salute the Filipinos’ pluck. The Greek historian chronicled the Peloponnesian War, the protracted 5th century BC struggle between Athens and Sparta. One of Thucydides’ best-known precepts is that “fear, honor, and interest” represent “three of the strongest motives” driving societies’ actions.
In one infamous episode, Athenian emissaries inform the leaders of Melos, a small island state, that “the strong do as they will and the weak suffer what they must” when their interests collide. They demand submission. The Melians balk, but have no hope of help from Sparta or any other rescuer. When they remain defiant anyway, the Athenians put the men to the sword while enslaving the women and children.
Fear, honor, and interest animate small states like Melos and the Philippines as much as they do superpowers like Athens and China. Maritime claims are a matter of self-interest for Filipinos. They are also a matter of honor. Beijing can't expect Manila to simply tally up the balance of forces, acknowledge it faces a hopeless mismatch, and buckle. Philippine leaders can solicit foreign support, and they know Beijing has no Melian option.
Why admit defeat prematurely, any more than Fabius or Mao did?
James Holmes is an associate professor of strategy at the US Naval War College. The views voiced here are his alone.
Photo Credit: U.S. Navy
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vince
one thing I can assure you.. we will never back down. we will stand our ground.
your historical claims are baseless, and one could create such lies.
why dont your government failed to participate in the ICJ?
thewind
Aloha
I have been reading every comment here…it is sad, all people are brothers and sisters, yet we still fight over rocks….
As long as we are divided up into races, nations, religions etc… there will be war!
As a Natve American…….I think my people know what it feels like to be crushed by a superior force, however, dying is ok…..it is living without any dignity that is hard.
My woman is in Cebu….let me be clear, I would rather fight and die for Filipinos that actually stand for something than fight and die for American Bankers who want to rule the world….
I laugh at you people who still don’t understand that the problem is not the “Chinese”……it isn’t even their gov. it is the Central Bankers who run this world! The win no matter what, they always win! War is great for bankers..
The very same Bankers RULE China and the U.S.A.
But for some reason, the Philippines tries very hard to do the right thing as a people, they seem to actually care about what is right….and are willing to fight for it!
Sure the Philippines has so much corruption…..lawlessness……yet, most of the people try…..
China is a puppet of the New World Order just like Europe and the U.S.
Sometimes you simply have to fight…..even if it is with sticks and stones against missiles…..this in one of those times.
Anyone that thinks the Filipinos will back down to China, doesn’t know much about Filipinos……they don’t ask for much, but Respect is one thing they will fight and die for as a whole Nation!
I will fight with them if that happens, they are not invading anyone, they simply are trying to survive without handouts with what they have, in my little world that is worth admiration and worth fighting for since America has already lost it…….
aloha nui
ua mau ke ea o ka aina i ka pono……..(the life of the land is perpetuated in righteousness)……think about it!
sushime
thanks…we will never surrender without a fight .
Philippine guy
. . . .the problem is. . . .Japan & the Philippines have a Nuke ban in their constitution. . . . .so everybody else should cover the slack & develop Nuke and join US in Nuclear capability. . . .and Nuke Red China
Cyrus
Not gonna happend even if war breaks out I am against developing Nuclear Armaments for the Philippines.
Napoleon
Dont worry china doesnt know we have super firepowers in a secret area in mt kitanglad , Bukidnon in Mindanao and a secret marine base in Saranggani. LOL
The Truth
Oh… N. Korea, Russia and China will nuke the US and it’s allies first…
Errol
People ought to understand that at this day and age, NOBODY wins in a nuclear war. Unless someone develops a way to nullify radioactivity in killzones, no one will remain whole after exchanging ICBMs.
E.Antonio
It is one mistake USA/European/Middle eastern and Japan move when they gave all the technology and business to China that made it now a super power specially in Asia.They forget to share some business and technology to some poor country in Asia like Philippines at least the balance of power will still be stable.And now that the US has already having second thought of controlling china concerning Spratly islands because they too need money from china.Yes Chinese are becoming more arrogant bullying countries like the Philippines a very 1 long standing US allies.Philippines where do We go from here.
jijone
Chinese would start the aggession so that they would know the consequences …& will end to come shame…
william yeh
A classic case of using the enemies size and strength plus the bad image to his neighbours to win. In this global century, people hate aggressors.
ACT
and while the fires of those calling for war and echoing ultra-nationalistic sentiments rage online, the reality is that barring some colossal mistake, the issue has largely cooled off on the diplomatic front….
Fed up with PRC Chinese rhetorics
@ what’s your name “Indefatigable Li”?
Philippines belong to China?, Taiwan maybe but it has been an independent state or country for nearly 60 years. While the Philippines was never under Chinese rule. You must be dreaming or hallucinating. What is your proof that the Philippines belong to China. Can it hold up against the International Rule of Law?
i am FILIPINO
China should open their EYES
Indefatigable Li
The Philippines should stop its irresponsible behaviour immediately. The East China Sea, the South China Sea, Taiwan and the Philippines belong to China and have done so since ancient times.
Truly PINOY
Philippines is not part of China! Chinese are too greedy and stupid, how dare you claim the Philippines as part of your country. If Philippines is China’s part why are you just claiming today? For how many years ago China just claiming Philippines as their part. When world war 2, Spanish era arises where is China when Philippines is fighting for its Independence? Think first before you comment!!!!
Errol T
Funny thing is… Our pre-colonial datu and raja don’t have Chinese names. Now why is that?
WeDieForOurCountry
lol? Do you really believe that China owns Philippines? OMG…. why do we have different faces? our language is farlly diferrent. Our language is based on Malays and not Chinese. In fact, China is not the one who came here first, if it yes, then we became chinks now. India, Africa, Malay, Arab, and Indo came here first actually so your basis is really stupid. We don't want war, instead we will continue to protest our claim to International law, and seek for ally to help us when China shoot their guns, but one thing we only sure, we will protect and defend what we have and to kill or to be killed for the honor of our country.