The renewed U.S. interest in the Asia-Pacific gives Taiwan a perfect chance to bolster ties and its own security. But will it seize the moment?
The United States’ strategic shift toward the Asia-Pacific is more than just rhetoric. U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta told Asian defense leaders at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore earlier this month that the U.S. will “of necessity” rebalance towards the region, vowing that 60 percent of the Navy’s fleet, including six carrier battle groups, will be deployed to the region by 2020. He added that the U.S. presence would be bolstered by additional assets, while also becoming more agile, flexible and high-tech.
Such remarks have been welcomed by many in allies Australia, Japan and South Korea. On June 3, meanwhile, Panetta made a stop at a port in Cam Ranh Bay, Vietnam, making him the most senior U.S. official to visit the harbor since the Vietnam War ended in 1975. He stood on the deck of a U.S. ship to commemorate the 17th anniversary of the normalization of U.S.-Vietnam relations, underscoring Washington’s intention to enhance military cooperation with Hanoi.
This comes as the U.S. promotes a new strategy to forge partnerships in Southeast Asia to protect vital maritime rights for all nations in the South China Sea, even as China makes expansive territorial claims there – claims that conflict with those of Vietnam, the Philippines and Taiwan, among other states.
Over the past 15 years, China’s defense budget has increased by about 500 percent, and Beijing’s perceived dominance and growing belligerence appear to be strengthening U.S. efforts to rally the support of friends in the Asia-Pacific region. But all this points to one of the biggest challenges for both the U.S. and China – addressing the status of Taiwan.
The Obama administration has continued to provide defensive arms to Taiwan, as mandated by the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), moves that have prompted anger from China. In addition, U.S. officials have been keen to highlight the importance placed on relations with Taiwan. In November, for example, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Taiwan was an important security and economic partner.
China views this “protective” relationship with Taiwan as the most serious impediment to its goal of unification, and Beijing has moved to undermine ties, including by continuing to pressure Washington not to sell arms to Taiwan. Such pressure has found something of a sympathetic hearing among some senior U.S. commentators and analysts, and some prominent voices in Washington policy circles such as Adm. Bill Owens, former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Adm. Joseph Prueher, former Commander of the Pacific Command, have suggested Obama needs to recognize the reality of a rising China and at least reconsider U.S. security ties with Taiwan.
But aside from diplomatic pressure, China has also eyed intimidation, including deploying an estimated more than 1,000 missiles that are aimed at Taiwan, even as it has intensified economic engagement with the island in an effort to compel President Ma Ying-jeou and his Chinese Nationalist Party to start political talks that will lead to Beijing’s preferred outcome of Taiwan’s eventual unification.
The military pressure hasn’t stopped with the deployment of missiles – the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has built up considerable “anti-access” and “area-denial” capabilities with the U.S. in mind. China’s strategy serves two purposes: to deter and defeat U.S. intervention should China use force against Taiwan while also upholding China’s position in East Asia.
Photo Credit: Office of the Taiwanese President
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Palion
Oh, heck…I'm from mainland China, not Taiwan…and even I think that Taiwan should be getting nukes.
Seriously. America should have destroyed the PRC, an insult to all the Chinese around the world, except my Mao-crazy father, long ago…probably an invasion right after the Soviets fell would have been best. But the ROC is not free from blame either. Should not it have participated more in the Korean and Vietnam Wars alongside America?
Frankie Fook-lun Leung
The South China Sea territorial dispute may have the unintended effect of drawing Taiwan and PRC together to contest Japan's cliam and hence making America had to choose backing Japan to the max at the expense of irritating Taiwan. The balance of power may be upset without any party conscious handling. International poltics is sometimes unpredictable.
Kastus
I think the cuurent situation is good enough for China an Taiwan.
Army of U.S won't allow Taiwan rejioint China in close future. But economically with every year Taiwan is more and more cooperating with China. They is no another way, only reunion. But now Taiwan gets rfom USA some technologies, monies, weapons and then sells it to China. Its good for both.
The last thing what China and Taiwan want is War. Chinese in principle don't like fight. Nether US.
Major Lowen Gil Marquez, Phil Army
Taiwan has its territory, people and government, therefore taiwan is a free country and its the obligation of taiwan government to protect their people and country against any communist invaders… democracy and freedom for taiwan shall be and will be forever… Scarborough shoal is a property and territory of the philippines located at the norther tip of westen philippine sea.
Temujin
The only solution to deal with any china future aggression is for Taiwain to have their own nuclear weapon arsenal.
Errol T
The way things are going, violence across the Taiwanese strait is unlikely. Without firing a shot, Taiwan's already being integrated into China. Worse thing that could happen is economic sanctions that could affect Taiwan's numbers, but that's about it. China likely knows that an attack on Taiwan would badly damage the island's economy, and in the long run, that means lost profit for China as well. MIght as well let events unfold on their own.
vic
The atmosphere in Taipei among the movers and shakers is: in the future, they may not allow us to join them, they may not even answer our telephone call to them. So, better to tango now early in the game.
Anyone wishing war between Taiwan and the mainland is living the American dream.
nirvana
The American dream is not a war between Taiwan and China. The dream is that the Taiwanese are allowed to organize a referendum to decide between independence and integration. Why is there such opposition to this option?
ImperiumVita
Taiwan will never be a US ally on par with South Korea, Japan, or Australia without a significant change in the current status quo. Primarily, it would need to be recognized as a sovreign state, and the only way that would happen is if the USA lead secret negotiations with 80-90% of countries in the world to all jointly recognizes Taiwanese intependance, to minimize China's inevitable economic reprisals. Secondly, China (and Taiwan) would need to give up their Imperial revanchism, and learn to accept the world as it is today… in other words, give up the notion of "one China." This is a complicated issue becuse China (and Taiwan) take great pride in their 5000 year Imperial past.
The other option of be for Taiwan to unlaterally increase its military capability to the point where it can hold up its end of the Alliance on par with the USA, which seems unilkely, as that would treaten its growing economic relationship with China.
For now, let economic integration continue, as its the only thing that realy makes everyone happy.
John Chan
@ImperiumVita,
All your options are destructive and benefit nobody in the world. I just wonder why do you miss the win-win option that will benefit everybody in the world. The option is that the USA leaves Taiwan alone and let China and Taiwan resolve their issues on their own.
USA is thousands miles on the other side of the Pacific Ocean, nobody has the capability to threaten the USA; meanwhile USA does not have the economic means to do anybody any good, and USA is Mr. Bean wherever it goes. Why doesn’t USA do other’s a favour, pack up and go home?
ImperiumVita
The answer to your question John Chan, is that the USA will never abandon the Democracy on Taiwan fall to Chinese Authoritarian Imperialism.
The real option that I failed to mention above, was current mainland leadership stop reppression of the rights of the Chinese people to freedom of speech, and to a fair justice system (in addition to a thousand others) and let Democracy flourish among the Chinese people. Then, Taiwan will no doubt slide peacefully back into the fold, and the USA would be satisfied China won't invade, kill, and imprison Taiwan, and its Democracy.
John Chan
@ImperiumVita,
Taiwan is an integral part of China, whatever happens between Taiwan and China is none of the USA’s business. It is rather disappointing that USA does not act like a hegemon and admits it uses Taiwan as tool to blackmail China like a thug; hiding behind the veil of democracy and human rights indicated the hegemon is losing ground.
Please spare us the fancy moral rhetoric, USA knows it very well, the more arms it sells to the Taiwan the more casualty the USA will cause in Taiwan. In the eye of law, conspirator is more guilty than the murderer, and the USA is the conspirator. If China needs a war to rein in Taiwan, China should ask the World Court to indict USA on the crime of conspiring massive death in Taiwan after the war.
scdad07
'Freedom' & 'Democracy' – Did USA consult locals when Chiang moved to Taiwan? US failed to support the local Chinese on land rights and human equaility when WW2 ended (income disparity).
Saudi and Bahrain – where oil/autocracy commingle (Sunni vs Shite).
ImperiumVita
I feel it is instructive John Chan, that you are the only one talking about war.
John Chan
@ImperiumVita,
Labeling others baselessly is not the way to win a debate.
Cyrus
@JC US would not abandone Taiwan because it is a democracy and the United States want's to keep it that way. If China would revert to democracy then all's fine and well. Secondly, why are you spewing nonsense about a war? I did not see in any of Imperiums comment advocating such.
vic
Taiwan is feeling the momentum of Chinese history. As Chinese history will not allow Taiwan independence, the KMT, despite losing the civil war, will still adhere to the "right side of history". It is the "DNA" of the KMT, which makes it state that Taiwan is an integral part of China. The interdependence of trade with the "motherland" will deepen over the coming years. China's belated entry into the "modern era" is well documented in the history pages of blood, sweat and tears. Chinese have only themselves to blame for the "century of humiliation". The present splitting of Taiwan from the mainland is the product of the Chinese Revolution.
How Taiwan will politically integrate into China should be left to future leaders of both sides. The re-unification will definitely be peaceful and may come in a form which we may not be able to envisage from present perspectives. It will take time, but definitely the island of Taiwan will eventually be reunited with the mainland.
Taiwan's relationship with the US is a "marriage of convenience", useful for both parties up to now. But we must all realize that there is "no true love" involved.
John Chan
“USA only has tools and no allies, once a tool is done, selling the tool is American’s way of life” therefore the appropriate question is “Can Taiwan be a ‘worthy’ US tool?”
Over the 15 years, the US has been steadily more belligerent toward China due to its predatory imperialist nature; USA has forced China to allocate more and more resource to defend itself instead of spending on the social welfare for its people. The USA is replaying the same tricks it pulled down the USSR on China for the purpose of its destructive hegemonic needs; as a result Taiwan is facing increasing military stronger China.
The USA recognizes Taiwan as an integral part of China, yet it is supplying arms to a local government (Taiwan) of China openly against the international law and order. China should ask the World Court to indict USA on the crimes of breaking international law of peace, open subversion against China’s sovereignty, and inciting war against humanity using sales of illegal arms to Taiwan as evidence.
Instead of asking US to back down from its bellicose toward China so that Taiwan does not have to face a more potent China’s defense force, the author encourages the USA and its lackeys like Japan, SK, and others to step up the hostility towards China, he is totally working against Taiwan’s wellbeing. The author’s motivation is puzzling, is it because he is working on the brownie points for his Green Card?
Lung Sha Shou
@John Chan
Here you go again pronouncing hateful and incorrect statements.
You tell others their posts are destructive andbenefit nobody as if yours were constructive and of assistance.
Don't forget, you believe the wealth of the West was built on their exploitation of China and the selling of Opium.
Which shows what a deranged rabid nationalist you are, nursing grievances and longing for revenge.
Like your masters you liketo make pronouncements woth no evidence, deny history and think you (with your poor reserch skills and second rate grasp of recent events and history in general) can simply state facts.
You are entilted to your opinions, but not your facts – something you and the criminal regime in beijing have yet to learn.
Did you see the lovely article about the aborted 7 onth foetus and how happy the woman was to be living under your enlightened leaders?
scdad07s
Didn't you read the 2nd witness to Maguindanao massacre get murdered? Should Aquino be held responsible?
The story on a fisherman boat being rammed by a Chinese vessel was exposed as a fabrication of lie. The world is watching statements by Mr. del Rosario being contradicted by other gov't officials and Chinese spokesman .
Resign Mr. del Rosario. Take your money to US and live out your American dream.
Imran Abubakar
Your comment makes me laugh in so many ways… First of all the Maguindanao massacred happened during the TIME OF GLORIA MACAPAGAL ARROYO [A TRUE ALLIE OF CHINA] we were the puppets of China during her administration… "WERE" Aquino is not a part of this issue why? because he is in favor of AMERICA ! how do I know this? My friend died in the Massacre. We all know the real story in maguindanao for we reside in Mindanao.
John Chan
@Lung Sha Shou,
How about the fanatic cult in Japan spread nerve gas to kill all innocent passengers in railway stations? Do you call it lovely enlightenment about the people living as 大和民族? Japanese surly know how to spread enlightenment in large scale.
Cyrus
Those cultist pale in comparison to the CCP Regime. Forced abortion, tianmen massacre, etc.
scdad07
Why Chiang supported retake of Paracel Islands?
He should have sanctioned Lee Teng-hui, a Japanese recurit in WW2.
Errol T
Nothing the author could do if Taiwanese business is dead-set in strengthening its ties to China. Question is how will the KMT and other political parties take it. China is officially a one-party system. Somehow I can't imagine KMT members being integrated into the CCP, due to their bloody history.