A new book argues for a ‘concert of powers’ to enhance stability while conceding to Beijing a 'sphere of influence'. It would be a mistake.
Prominent Australian security thinker Hugh White has sounded the alarm over Asia’s strategic future with his provocative new book The China Choice.
Despite, or because of, its contentious recommendations, this work ought to inspire debate on the most critical question to the future of Indo-Pacific Asia and indeed all of global security. That is: how can the regional order incorporate a rising China and its interests without allow Beijing to become destabilizingly dominant?
In often stark terms, Professor White outlines why the United States should share power with China to avoid rivalry, a new Cold War and potentially catastrophic conflict.
This experienced former senior defense official presents a taut warning about the dangers ahead if the United States does not radically reconsider its Asia policy in light of China’s rise.
Much of his diagnosis is hard to fault. Especially sharp is his dissection of America’s concept for taking on China in a so-called AirSea Battle which, weirdly, seems to wish away any risks of nuclear escalation.
And it is all to the good that White robustly questions the notion that diplomatic business as usual will be sufficient to accommodate China’s expanding interests and expectations.
Yet for all that, there remain troubling gaps in White’s recommendation – echoed this week by former Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating – that U.S. allies and other third countries should urge America to set new limits on how and where it pushes back against China.
It is one thing to counsel Washington towards a supposedly new way of thinking in which it accepts clear limits to its interests and influence in Asia to help ensure peace. It is entirely another to nominate where the line should be drawn. This is the harder task, yet The China Choice is frustratingly guarded on this score.
At the heart of the book is an argument that the United States should partner with China in maintaining Asia’s stability through an exclusive ‘concert of powers’, and that this would include conceding to China a sphere of influence.
The dangerous alternative, says White, is that Washington will refuse to give up its quest to sustain military and strategic dominance in Asia, resulting in confrontation and quite possibly war. He fully agrees that U.S. pre-eminence long kept the peace, but says in effect that these days are over as China grows more confident in staring down American deterrence.
Photo Credit: The White House (Flickr)
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talking points
One more time, China is only claiming land features in 9 dotted line, not the whole sea.
chinaBully
china is claiming both the islets and the sea in the 9 dotted line as its territorial water. Sooner or later, china will collapse on its own greed weight
Michael
The idea of shared power between Beijing, New Delhi, Tokyo, and Washington is an intriguing one. I think it is a better option than a unbridled arms race not only between these four nations but including much of the Pacific Rim and the Indian Ocean.
China however, cannot stand by and leave itself vulnerable to foreign powers as it learned that lesson in the nineteenth century (the Opium War etc…..).
Razor
Nor can the US allow a threat to extend into and beyond the second island chain (i.e. pearl harbour – WWII)
greg vesey
It is amazing to me how logical and rational the author is ….I wonder if the same author would have picked that the EU would be what it is today 70 years ago , or that Chinas rise would have been so spectacular or the Demise of the soviet union or the arab springtime that we are experiencing right now ? I doubt it very much .The "problem that exists " is in the minds of the hardened rationalists , the over educated and dare I say the modern war mongering nations..
As Einstein says "a problem must be solved at a higher level of thinking to that at which it was created ".
In the next 50 years , or far sooner , the world will see , [1] and international currency [2]an international body [UN ] that actually functions effectivly [3] vastly different levels of humility and tolerance between nations ,[4] a vastly different consciousness level of co operation on all levels internationally commercially and socially ,Racially and most importantly gender related equality – Lets face it us Men have been in control of the whole operation for thousands of years and look at the bull—- we have created …. War,War ,war …. who has got the biggest Gun.. .we are dinosours , thinking that mankind is going to head down the same path that men and dictators have led it in the past …..people are educated now,communication as never before in history ,Just need to get the warmongers out of the equation …. . the next generations will consider war in future as we now consider should canabalism .Totally Unexceptable .One world one people .long overdue ,we are on Mars for gods sake ….MEN …use the imagination and change your own thinking ,Einstein said it is our most precious gift .