Japan's Demographic Nightmare
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Japan's Demographic Nightmare

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(The following is a guest editor’s entry by Dr. John W. Traphagan, University of Texas at Austin)

For the third year in a row, the Japanese population has declined.  This year the total decrease was 263,727, or 0.21% of the total population, representing approximately a 50% increase in number of individuals lost over the previous year.  At the same time, the Japanese government reports that number of births was the lowest on record while the total number of deaths represented a new high.  And this trend is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future; today teens represent a little over 13% of the population while those over the age of 65 account for about 23.5%.  Indeed, government projections have shown that if current trends continue, today’s population of about 127 million will be halved by the end of the century.

Interestingly, when I have talked with individuals about Japan’s population problem, and often these individuals are in the relatively less populated areas in and around Iwate Prefecture in the north, the mood related to population decline is not particularly negative.  In fact, many have echoed the comments of one elderly man I spoke with a few years back who said, “I think the population decline is a good thing.  The country is too crowded as it is; fewer people would be an improvement.” Perhaps he was just a grumpy old man who wanted his privacy, but I don’t think so.  Rather, and we talked at some length about this, he felt that in the long-run the country would benefit from a smaller population. One benefit he mentioned is that a smaller population would place fewer demands on resources like energy as well as make for less crowded urban areas.

In fact, most people in rural parts of Japan have first-hand experience with the effects of population decline and low fertility.  Many rural towns have elderly populations well over 30% and one of the increasingly common scenes along rural roadways is the empty house once occupied by an elderly couple or single elder, and in the past by a three-generation family.  It is a common refrain among residents of rural towns that walking around town you never see young faces; all of the people you meet are old.  Indeed, one elementary school in Iwate Prefecture with which I am well acquainted has a total of about 50 students taking classes in a building designed for over 200 –  this has been normal for at least the past decade.  Rural Japan today provides a very good window into what will be a much less populated future for Japan in general.

While the declining number of births and increasingly elderly population may be problematic for the Japanese government in terms of the country’s economic future, many members of that declining population do not see this change in a negative light, even while they recognize the economic and social challenges Japan will face as their numbers decline.  The fact that a host of pro-natalist programs—such as reimbursing parents for costs associated with childbirth, which has existed since the 1990s—clearly have not worked. This suggests that many members of the declining Japanese population are not particularly troubled by a future with fewer people, even if that brings changes in Japan’s position as an economic and political power and presents domestic challenges in addressing the needs of a growing number of elderly.

Comments
25
Shimada
March 12, 2013 at 12:51

I have the impression that…

1) In order to cope with the upcoming decline in population, the Japanese will have to do what they do best: innovation for higher efficiency. A decline in poplulation and workforce has to rely more on technology and innovation to maintain and ensure higher levels of productivity. I have no worries for Japan when it comes to matters of technology and innovation.

2) Thinking of Scandinavian economies such as Norway and Sweeden as a benchmark. Although they are not leading countries in terms of GDP outcome, they are leading economies with low population density. Indeed, their low population benefits from higher standards in plubic services, healthcare and education – overal they maintain a healthy economy and high quality of living. It seems however that the tradeoff for Japan will be increased taxation, higher public spending and institutional reform…

3) A recent article proposes gender parity and higher inclusion of women into the workforce as means to respond to the decline in population/future workforce. For a long time, child-bearing has been the perceived constraint of career development by young female Japanese professionals; this has discouraged them from child-bearing. The article can be read here: http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/topics/women-and-economics/womenomics-2011/index.html

 

shara
March 12, 2013 at 07:35

lucky Japan,  you never stand on a London street and think "what this city needs is more people"

k
December 24, 2012 at 17:51

Someone said here childcare system has to improve so that more women can go to work. Also accept dual citizenship as well as accepting more japanese brazilians. This is the way to increase the population. This is all correct but at the same time Japan  has to make the  life of women easier such as improved childcare system and should make any laws to support women working and raising children as well as any offenders who commit crimes against women have to be punished severly. If all this is done Japanese population will increase and not need to accept all kinds of foreigners. Japan is not USA which have been accepting migrants for a long time and Japan can not be like USA and it is not ready for it. 

Chris
December 7, 2012 at 00:29

Now watch Japan embrace Multiculturalism haha

Altair
November 17, 2012 at 00:51

It's interesting, in India here, we frequently complain about too many people in our cities. Middle school children are taught that population explosion is the worst thing that is happening to our country. The problems here are different though: corruption, mismanagement and illiteracy are the root problems which make it seem that population explosion is such a dangerous thing. Citizens are often ashamed to learn that India may soon become the most populous nation on earth.
I am mildly surprised whenever I hear people complaining that populations are decreasing, tell an average Indian that populations are decreasing, and he'll say: "Isn't that a good thing?"

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