Faced with a rising China, Russia's 'pivot' to Asia, and challenges with North and South Korea, Japan may need to reboot its Foreign Policy.
Officials in Tokyo have known for some time that Japan’s regional foreign policy needs to be revamped. The economic crisis has brought Japan’s export giants to their knees and forced the country’s economy to look at different ways of conducting business. Moreover, the nuclear crisis in Fukushima last spring further intensified Japan’s already acute energy security dilemmas. The dynamic security environment in Northeast Asia has not helped Japan’s footing either. Tokyo sees itself virtually surrounded by geopolitical challenges on all sides, including territorial disputes with China, South Korea and Russia and the consistent challenges it faces from an unpredictable regime in Pyongyang.
But all is not doom and gloom. Japan surely faces tough choices in how it conducts its foreign policy, but so do other states in the region. China needs to balance its regional ambitions with the strategic reality that primacy will not be voluntarily relinquished by Washington, Tokyo, Moscow or Seoul. South Korea also charts an uncertain course. Despite weathering the economic crisis better than Japan, South Korea is still vulnerable to the financial risks brought on by high household debt and the enhanced competition it faces since signing a series of free trade agreements. On the security front, Seoul continues to stare down a volatile cadre of military leaders in Pyongyang that have arguably accumulated even more power since Kim Jong-il’s death. Similarly, Russia, despite its “Pacific moment” this year at the Vladivostok APEC Summit, will need to considerably recalibrate its approach to the region if it wants to sufficiently benefit from its claims as an Asian superpower.
It is not too late for a proactive Japanese foreign policy in Asia. Tokyo needs to leverage the capital that it has already accrued amongst states in the region to regain some of its lost prestige.
One of the most obvious ways Japan can do this is through making the tough decisions that earmark its entry into the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). This is a move championed by industrial heavyweights such as Toyota, Toshiba and Mitsubishi, but fiercely opposed by lobbyists representing Japanese farmers who fear – with good reason – that the TPP will effectively eliminate their competitive advantage at home by ending exorbitant tariffs on agricultural imports. It may be political suicide for Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda to completely abandon the farmers – especially considering it was their area that was most affected by the tsunami and earthquake last year. This caveat notwithstanding, it is imperative that Noda impress upon the agricultural block – which makes up merely 1.4% of Japan’s GDP – that the country’s economic survival is at stake.
The TPP is not an economic vaccine though. Japan’s economic engagement with Asia needs to complement this with a focus on expanding its footprint with bilateral trade agreements. Tokyo has taken a proactive approach in this area in recent years, inking Economic Partnership Agreements with India, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Brunei and the Philippines. Japan must now speed-up the pace of current EPA negotiations with regional heavyweights South Korea and Australia. It remains imperative that Tokyo not lose sight of the strategic importance of the former in light of recent sparring over the disputed Dokdo/Takeshima islets.
Japan’s presence in the region’s key multilateral institutions such as the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the East Asia Summit (EAS) is another vehicle that should continue to drive Tokyo’s foreign policy. Japan has a perfect opportunity to articulate its role during Indonesia’s hosting of APEC next year which would allow leaders in Tokyo to leverage APEC’s temporary congruence with ASEAN and the EAS – which are also housed in Jakarta.
While Japan’s economic challenges in a dynamic Asia-Pacific are considerable, there are also significant political hurdles that its leaders can address through enhanced regional diplomacy. It has been a tough year for Japan’s security establishment, which has been ill-prepared to adequately manage its territorial disputes with China, South Korea and Russia. China has reemerged as the dominant strategic power among states in Northeast Asia. Beijing’s primacy in the region, while still at least a decade away, has only been challenged thus far by the United States. The situation is a bit more nuanced with regard to Russia and South Korea. Both countries have advanced considerably over the past decade but still suffer from a lack of strategic depth in Asia. Russia realizes that the continent is changing and it leaders know must react quickly or risk being left out. Seoul on the other hand has a security policy – focused on North Korea – which limits it ability to free up resources for a stronger economic push into Asia.
Despite these formidable challenges, both Russia and South Korea have seized the opening provided by an assertive Chinese foreign policy to pressure Japan with unprecedented measures on their territorial disputes. Essentially, both states have exploited Chinese actions for their benefit and are engaged in tacit “free riding” on the heels of Beijing. Why are Russia and South Korea taking this approach? It seems that Seoul and Moscow have made a calculated gamble that Japan will buckle or – at the very least – make concessions as a result of the overwhelming pressure from its neighbors. Good relations with Japan are too important to South Korea and Russia for them to confront Tokyo directly. As a result, both states have opted to shield their provocations under the scope of Chinese policy and the dynamic power architecture in Northeast Asia.
Aside from these disputes, leaders in Japan have been plagued for years by its toxic relationship with North Korea. There have been slight indications lately that a thaw might be palatable to both sides. Any talk of détente though would have to start with confidence building measures around the long simmering issue of the outstanding Japanese nationals abducted by North Korea nearly thirty years ago. Of course, Pyongyang and Tokyo being at loggerheads is not a new development. Relations between Japan and North Korea have been tense for decades. Aside from the abduction row, Tokyo also condemns the North for its belligerent missile tests over Japanese territory and Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program. As a result, Tokyo has maintained a tough set of unilateral sanctions to complement the existing UN Security Council penalties on Pyongyang that have been in place since the North’s first nuclear test in 2006. These sanctions, which were renewed earlier this year, have effectively cut off all bilateral trade between the countries. On the other hand, North Korea has issues with Japan lingering from its colonization of the Korean peninsula before and during World War II. Tokyo continues to be a dart board for the North’s hardliners who accuse it of being a mere outpost of Washington. The North also takes a hard stance against Japan’s territorial claim to Takeshima/Dokdo and recently insisted that the issue was “directly related to (Korean) national dignity” and that there could be “no concession or compromise” with Tokyo.
Japan needs to take a strategic approach to these geopolitical challenges. It appears that this route is already being tested with North Korea, as a traditionally risk-adverse foreign ministry in Tokyo makes a calculated gamble that Pyongyang might be ready for serious talks. The spillover effects of positive strides with North Korea – even if mere window-dressing – should not be discounted. South Korea, China and Moscow – all of which have a stake in Pyongyang’s future – would realize that Japan is not just providing lip-service on North Korea. This could potentially erode China’s tacit support of the North’s quest to isolate Japan from a meaningful seat at the table when/if the moribund Six Party Talks resume. There have also been indications that Japan and Russia are exploring ways to resolve their outstanding territorial dispute.
It would be an exaggeration to frame Japan’s regional foreign policy as an impending crisis. Japan has spent decades building its prestige through soft power relationships among ASEAN states, Central Asia (via the Central Asia plus Japan Dialogue) and South Asia (through the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation). As others have noted, Japan’s relations with India have been expanding in recent years as both states – leery of China – take the next step to a potential strategic partnership. However, as the Asian states continue to contort their foreign policies, Tokyo will need to bank on more than goodwill and trade. This means getting serious about political and security relationships with natural allies in the region such as India, Australia, Mongolia, Thailand, Vietnam and ,– despite the nationalist posturing, South Korea. These steps, combined with enhanced trade relations with ASEAN and APEC will reduce the magnitude of the challenges Japan may encounter in future foreign policy pitfalls.
Photo Credit: Office of South Korea's President
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koichi
Move on. Don't harp on the pass. Prosperity faster from mutual goodwill economic activity than from demands for compensation. If Japan can embrace US to its benefit after Hiroshima & Nagasaki, why can't China & NKorea cooperate with Japan to develop green uplifting everbody's health & happiness? Anyone driven by hate & destruction is his own worst enemy.
Leonard R.
Leonard R.'s advice to Japan is:
1. Make a deal with Russia. Russians don't hate Japanese the way Koreans & Chinese hate them.
Give Moscow what it wants in exchange for military weapons deals and access to Siberian resources.
Cooperate on border security. Also, both countries have problems with China.
Cooperation with Russia could be a win-win-win for both nations. But it starts with the islands.
Tokyo – write them off.
2. The TPP cannot make up what Japan lost in the Chinese market. But alas, that market is too unstable
to continue. Write it off too. TPP with South American involvement could one day prove very lucrative.
3. Vietnam is a natural ally for Japan. Vietnam is an ally with Russia. Joint offensive missile development inside a strong military alliance is a real possibility here. Subs, subs, subs! With missiles aimed at the Chinese heartland. Vietnam has a low cost labor market & a growing pro-Japanese consumer goods market. Help it with infrastructure, ports, roads.
Ultimately an alliance between Vietnam, Russia, Japan and India could be very formidable.
4. Making a deal with Korea won't resolve their hatred of Japanese. S. Korea is inherently unreliable as an ally.
Write it off too. The US should do the same. If they're not paying for the security guard service they're getting,
Let Beijing/Pyongyang have them.
5. Taiwanese are more favorably disposed to Japan than either Koreans or Chinese.
Taiwan could provide access to the Chinese market for Japan.
Be Way
There will be no peace in Asia if Japan is still around playing geopolitical villain in Asia. Without Japan, there will be no U.S pivot towards Asia as none of the rest of the Asia countries will want to ally itself with the rogue U.S regime against any fellow Asia country. Without U.S around, there will be more chance of South Korean to be reunited with its fellow brothers North Korean. The U.S government is a warmongering fascist, bend on creating wars to feed its warmongering Military Complex Industry.
If Asia want peace, Japan must die.
alnaf
Then…it will be very easy for China to invade all the Islands of their Neighbouring countries? No one has the right to kill any Country or Nations…unless if they're the big threat for the whole…yes! We're now living in the 21 th century, there are Laws and Regulations Internationally to be respected. If Asia wants peace…respect Neighbour's Territories…stop Bullying them!
Jean-Paul
@ be way
Once again demonstrating your violent nature by calling for the death of an entire nation, if this is not the surest sign that China will become the next nazi germany i am not sure what else i can call it. It seems like the commie chinese have successfully prepared their citizens to become the axis of evil (china, iran , north korea, pakistan).
There are more countries in asia that favour america over China besides japan, let me list a few for you: South Korea, Phillipines, Vietnam, indonesia, australia, taiwan, thailand, india….would you like me to continue?? Every country knows China is not to be trusted, only failed rogue states like north korea and pakistan would ever align with such a bully because such failed corrupt states have a tendency to stick together.
Even Russia does not trust China, which is why even they are pivoting towards asia recently. This will help towards world peace, a massive block of countries all containing china to ensure the world order is maintained…..then china can fulfill its destiny of being the worlds #1 pollution state.
ariel
For Asia and Asians to live in peace, China must be in pieces or at any rate be contained. Today the biggest threat to international peace and peace in Asia emanates from the not so benign rise of China.
Linh_My
I served as a USN SP(Military Policeman) for just over two years in Japan in the mid 1970's. Even on base had little to no authority over Japanese Civilians or Military personal. 'klee' sounds like he has likely never been to Japan and almost certainly has no experience with Japanese/American military and civilian interaction.
Also note, American GIs who committed any serious infraction of Japanese law wound up in the Japanese Court/Prison systems.
John Chan
Just off the BBC-America, an US airman committed a serious infraction against 13 years old boy and a woman in Okinawa, the US military authority sent him back to home for sick treatment.
klee
@ Linh_My
You are kidding yourself about "no experience with Japanese/American military…..interaction". Over the last 30 years, American GIs had been involved in many occasions of raping Japanese girls & women. The locals hated those and want to kick the Americans out, but Japanese citizens and government could not. Why? Because the American soldiers went there, not as guests, but as occupiers after they lost the war. (Look at Philippines, they were successfully kicked the US out of their bases 10 years ago) Japanese have no choice. No nation with the right minds wants to have foreign troops stationed in their motherland.
Linh_My
http://www.stripes.com/news/ex-marine-decries-nature-of-japan-prison-work-1.21905
This link shows a much kinder treatment of an American Serviceman than was usual when I was stationed in Japan. The Japanese legal system is something that a foreigner wants to be subjected to.
Of Spurious Claims & Guilt Complex
What BS propaganda. Easy to claim credentials like you aerved as a "USN SP(Military Policeman) for just over two years in Japan in the mid 1970's" on the internet. Prove it your claim is not made up just to manipulate readers' perceptions?
As for japan, of course it faces challenges from an "unpredictable" N Korea. What do you expect of a government which hides the truth from its new generation of japanese- that invading Japanese imperial troops in WW II committed barbaric atrocities in N Korea – same as it did all over East (including SE) Asia, and the N Koreans have not forgotten it. When Tokyo talks about Pyongyang's missiles, it is their guilty conscience talking. yet it continues to act belligerent on behalf of its puppeteer master, Washington.
klee
Whatever Japan wants to do, or plan to deal with its neighbors, it has to get an advance permission, or makes it's plans known with its Master, which is, of course, the US. Those 40+k uninvited US soldiers stationed in Okinawa are there to look over Japan's shoulder. This is the price Japanese have to pay for their WWII aggression. Of course, those US marines, today, are also used to contain China, warn North Korea, and make the US presence known in Asia to Russia.
So, whatever Japan does, its actions have not to be contradicting the US's interest in the region.