Ian Bremmer talks America's new role in Asia, how conflict in the Middle East could challenge such a role, and China's future.
The Diplomat's Editor Harry Kazianis recently spoke with noted author and president of Eurasia Group, Ian Bremmer, about President Obama's recent trip to Southeast Asia, how tensions in the Middle East could affect America's renewed focus on Asia and China's future.
1. This week President Obama and senior members of his foreign policy team visited a series of nations in Southeast Asia including Burma. Many have argued that with ethnic tensions still unresolved, the Obama administration has moved too fast to restore relations and trade. Some have also argued the administrations moves have had more to do with China than Burma itself. What is your take?
During his trip to Myanmar earlier this week, Obama made the trek to the home of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, where she had spent more than two decades under house arrest. While the White House was still planning the trip, she cautioned the administration against visiting Myanmar at all, urging Obama not to be lured by the “mirage of success.” So why would Obama make it a priority to visit a country whose national hero warned him not to do it—a trip that could come back to bite him if the reform process goes south?
It’s because Obama’s trip through Southeast Asia is all about China. The Obama “doctrine,” to the extent that there is one, is the pivot to Asia…and the use of economic statecraft, as originally coined by Hillary Clinton. Both center on the rise of China and the potential challenges that come with it, especially if China doesn’t align its behavior with international norms. There’s a security and an economic component. Aiming to add Thailand to the Trans-Pacific Partnership—a potential free trade agreement of like minded countries that could serve as a counterweight to China’s regional economic dominance— and removing sanctions on Burma are actions that the United States is taking through this China lens.
2. Tensions have been rising in the Middle East with fears that hostilities between Hamas and Israel could escalate further, even as the standoff between the U.S. and Iran continues. Do these problems in the Middle East doom the administration's so-called 'pivot' to Asia? In an era of constrained resources, can America focus on problems in the Middle East while also demonstrating a stronger commitment in the Asia-Pacific?
Conflict in the Middle East certainly has the potential to distract the administration, and not only the United States, of course, but a range of other countries as well. But regardless of the state of play on the ground in the Middle East, the United States is going to play a comparatively diminished role in the region—especially in the context of what we’ve seen over the past ten years, with occupations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Going forward, expect a “lighter footprint,” which is part of the reason we’re going to see more conflict. The U.S. is out of Iraq and not going back in; it will not commit forces to Syria. Washington is doing everything possible to avoid military strikes in Iran. The fact that Obama did not cancel the aforementioned Southeast Asia trip in light of events in Israel/Gaza shows how serious this Asia pivot has become. That’s the direction we’re heading.
And don’t expect any other foreign power to fill the leadership void. The rest of the West is maximally distracted with internal issues. The Chinese, whose stake in the region is growing as a result of their energy needs, are not at the stage of development where they would be willing to pick up the baton.
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Stephen S
America WILL continue with its long term agend, that includes the Middle East, and total domination Globally. To start with, at this present day, if America withdrew all troops from the Middle East and discontinued Military growth, their economy would collapse imediately. It is all that remains to prop up their economy, through sales of arms and weaponry. What recently has gone down between Israel and Hamas, was nothing more than a sales to pitch to prospective countries in the purchase of the "Iron Dome". This sort of mental culture shall continue well into the future, even with their enevitable financial collapse. In fact, this culture will only grow more as a result!
I disagree on the Demographics in relation to China, they are a very hard working nation, workers expectations are still far less then the western world, Australia too has much the same: 3-4 workers per every unemployed, yet Australia has endured thus far. China's growth throughout the globe has only just past idle, and the engine is beginning to move up a gear or two, they have over the past 5yrs made substancial inroads in trade relations, especially Asia, where as America has left its move a little to late, and previous inroads into the area have and still are waning, and not without good reason, they have abused the locals, polluted their lands, and rape them of their wealth. In Austalia, sometime this year, i think around March 2012, a TPPA draft was pressured onto the Australian government, that was instructed "secret". Some "leaks" of the draft reveals very little detail, a fact that was raised. These finer "details" we were informed would be forthcoming some 12mths after we sign the pact. How transparant is that? Some other issues leaked from the draft show Australia (and several other countries) must forego any legal litigation against American phamacutical companies for drugs and goods imported to Australia, weather neglect can be proved or not. This is just a couple of examples of the multitude of issues. Further, the draft also shows authority of Australian goods (property and assets) may be seized, without litigation or compensation. It is a far cry from the respectful and transparant process in trading with China!
John LaChance
The question was asked: "How does an established power, such as the United States, deal with a rising power, such as China?"
Why, the same way we dealt with the Soviet Union. We break it apart into its constituent elements. There are six countries in China held together by the force of guns and a rising economy. What the US is doing is destabilizing China so that the various ethnic elements seek autonomy. And guess what happens after that? Why, the same thing that happened to the Soviet Union.
It's simple, really. A united China is a threat. A dismembered China is 6 worker units vying against each other for market share. Don't worry folks. We have this one in the bag, scheduled for 2017. The Dalai Lama should be glad, because one of these six countries that we are now in the process of breaking China into is Tibet, a free and autonomous Tibet.
Monk
I am very curious. We have 3 out of 6, Tibet, Xinjjiang and inner Mongolia. What are other 3? we'd love to see it sooner than 2017.
SandyPiranha
Very Interesting & very revealing. Kindly tell us the 4 other names apart from Xinxiang, Tibet
bert
The best advice for this column/article would be play musical chairs ! Like what Mr Noda and company are doing now. The game of musical chairs is very highly much fun, I tell you.
John Chan
Americans need to be honest, frank and stop talking in riddles, for example the American must not disguise USA’s hegemony and world order in the “norms and values are more in line with the international community,” USA is not international community, the international community is UN and all 200 some nations in the world.
Suggesting establishing special judicial zones, special accounting zones, and special banking zones is a repackage of the extra-territory jurisdiction rights the West imposed on China during the era of unequal treaties. Ian Bremmer’s suggestions intend to bring China back to the era of unequal treaties so the USA and its lackeys can enslave China again, it is another example shows how dubious and unscrupulous the USA is, talking in riddles to disguise its true predatory imperialist hegemonic intentions.
Bankotsu
The U.S and the west are still thinking in neo-colonial terms. If they don't give up their delusions of global hegemony, there will be more conflicts and proxy wars in the future.
My view is that the U.S and the west needs 10-20 years of economic decline before all of their delusions collapse.
Dean
That's your delusion, comrade. The breakup of China is underway: First, its economy then the nation! Sadly, there's no way out!
John Chan
@Dean,
The US stock market rallied on the China’s PMI returning above 50. The financial media in the US is full of joy on China’s positive sign of bottoming out, so that there is hope that US economy is less likely rolling back into recession.
Japan is not going to get out of its lost decades because the penalty China gives it to be belligerent against China.
In according to the above facts, it seems you are living in the cloud of Cuckoo Land.
Dean
Just wait & see, comrade Chan. Don't be too boastful . Things will be playing out soon. You can not kick the can down the road for ever & ever, comrade!
John Chan
@Dean,
Are you sure Dean is not your alias of Gordon Chang or Minxin Pei?
Dean
John Chan,
There's no need for answering that silly question, Chan. But one thing you should know ' You can not forever cover up the truth. It'll be coming out quicker than you think!'
ImperiumVita
John Chan, Special Economic Zones were created by the Chinese Communist Party as a mechanism to attract foreign investment with the dual purposes of increasing China's access to technology and increasing employment for Chinese workers. Mr. Bremmer's suggestion that other types of special zones created by the CCP should be modeled on these Special Economic Zones as regions with specialized laws designed to achieve the CCP's purpose therefore has no logical connection to your rant about unequal treaties.
I hope you will recognize this and apologize to us all for making us dumber.
John Chan
@ImperiumVita,
Snakeoil salesman is telling China it is good for China, China definitely must not touch it with 10 feet barge pole. China had been told enough it was good for China by the unscrupulous imperialist West in the last 150 years; the result was always the same, a blade on China.
Thanks but no thanks, the West can keep their “it is good for you” advice to themselves.
ImperiumVita
Well if you don't like what he says that's fine, but at some point you and other Chinese will have to accept that foreigners and maybe even Westerners might offer some good advice. Your posting demonstrates a reactionary mentality that rejects anything that didn't come the Chinese Communist Party first.
Maybe Mr. Bremmer is really giving an honest friendly opinion? You are too busy accusing him of "predatory imperialist hegemonic intentions" to care.
John Chan
@ImperiumVita,
American is in the business of imperialism, not in the business of charity; helping others is an act of charity, it is contradictory in term with imperialism. Besides the American is intensifying its imperialism against China in the expression of pivoting to Asia, Diaoyu Islands and Scarborough Shoal instigation, TPP offense, etc. American’s words just cannot reconcile its hostile actions.
American must be as honest as an elephant before others can take their words seriously, international affairs is not celebrity gossips in the mainstream media in the USA.
Perhaps the American can start to rehab its creditability by saying its security treaties with nations in Asia are out of date and do not fit the modern civilized era, hence those treaties are null and void; or its large military footprint in Asia is an expression of imperialism that is harmful to the peace and prosperity of Asia, so it is withdrawing its military presence back home, etc.
Mind you my suggestions are as honest friendly as Mr. Bremmer’s, please do not let the American Exceptionalism to obscure my “it is good for the USA” sincerity.
Bankotsu
If U.S is shifting their focus of attention of their global strategy to the asia pacific, they will open up gaps in other areas like latin america, middle east and europe, where other powers will move in.
As far as europe is concerned, Russia and China should move in, but I see U.S starting to make moves on a U.S-EU FTA in order to block off this threat.
vic
America is both an arsonist and a fire fighter; it seems to have a split personality. It champions human rights and at the same time it destroys. Like the victim Iraq, America bombs the hell out of Iraq with the justification of a need for regime change. It wants to trade with China and the rest of Asia, and at the same time, it tries to contain China trade-wise through the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Is there a doctor in the house to cure this patient ?
ACT
@Vic
and just as you have complained before, Vic, those same words can be turned on the PRC as well; while espousing peace and harmony, China continues to encourage the Han colonization of Tibet and continues to build military installations and support structures in certain disputed territories, the latter of which can easily be considered an act of aggression and a cause for war by the less cautious nations out there.
Lnrds
@ACT and VIC…AND humanity is weak with total disregard for each other as a race,, Humanity is destructive in all forms. We are an aggressive, violent and greedy race and it will be our own downfall. We don't worry and do something about the health and wellbeing of others in this world but only care about the the health of our wallets and bank accounts at the end of the day. Pathetic!
The saying goes…sit back, sit tight and watch the fireworks…..
vic
Don't need to worry, eventually we will all be dead anyway. What is the purpose in life, in ever there is to be one. Perhaps India may have the answer, life can be re-incarnated. Who will be turned into a cockroach ?
nirvana
Yet, bit by bit, we evolve. Not always in a straight line, but we do.
Remember when skin color could equate dark intentions, when speaking a strange language means barbarian, when books were forbidden, when you can be put on a stake if you object that the sun does not revolve around the earth? During the Cold War we could destroy our planet, but we did not.
To the cynical, I say: you will become less cynical, every day.. You will listen more to others. You will not believe blindly your church, nor your government. You will become less fanatical, less extremist, less racist, less nationalistic, less selfish. We will be one, when you appreciate diversity and tolerance. Blogging on the Internet will put on this right path.
The Games Obama Plays
God point Vic, but more to the point, Washington or Obama are playing a con-man game everywhere, Wall street style. There are suckers everywhere who believes what the US says. Look deeper and you will see what kind of game they are playing.
kassim
Good grasp of events and US's desperate strategy esp Myanmar to counter China.good read.
Dan Pendleton
What do events in the Middle East have to do with China? Leave it to the Diplomat to figure it out because they always have an answer. What do events in the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, etc. have to do with China? Why, nothing. But the Diplomat will figure it out and come up with *something*. Everything that happens in the world centers around China – or so says the Diplomat. It would be foolish not to believe them.
Jaques666
China is covering for Iran in the UN somewhat, and continuing to support it economically. Iran has influence in Iraq (which it has destabilized and stabilized at various times during the last 8 years), Iran was a close Ally of Syria's Assad – who is now on the rocks (despite Chinese and Russian sheltering in the UNSC), and Iran has influence in Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Palestine (the long range weapons in Gaza are Fajr-5s from Iran.). China buys a lot of Middle Eastern Oil, petrochems and some natural gas. The US is about to become energy independent and will not need to engage in the middle east as much as it did in the last 80 years. China will not and will have to engage more. So I think the Middle East has a lot to do with China, especially in the future.
As for Sweden, Norway, Denmark etc…no comment, other than large trade relationships and a fair bit of investment (nothing special)
Zack Meade
Dan,
Clearly, any country only has limited resources and can only focus on so many areas at once. Therefore, the recent 'Asia pivot' is the re-focusing on what the US Govt deems to be a more important area of the world. This pivot will force the US to choose where it would rather spend these valuable resources (military, monetary, diplomatic, etc.) during a time of austerity and recession. Not sure why you can't seem to grasp this concept. It is a well-thought-out piece and makes sense to me…. don't be so obtuse.