The Obama "Doctrine", Conflict in the Middle East, and China's Future  (Page 2 of 2)

3. In a recent interview on Charlie Rose, you explained that a major issue confronting China’s leadership is it must govern what effectively constitutes two different China’s: the more wealthy, urbanized and coastal China on the one hand and the relatively poorer, more rural, inland China on the other. Each segment of society has very different aspirations and goals. How can China’s new leaders devise policies and programs to help these two very different groups?

China’s leaders can help these two very distinct groups if they are willing to be more flexible in enacting true liberalizing reform with that wealthier group.  That means a more accountable, more transparent government, with more autonomy given to local leaders.  Like Chinese leadership did originally with special economic zones more than 30 years ago, there needs to be special accounting zones, special judicial zones, and special banking zones, where norms and values are more in line with the international community.  Short of that, governance is going to become increasingly problematic.  Unfortunately, when you look at the new group of leaders coming out of the recent transition, we’ve seen a consolidation of the status quo.  The standing committee has condensed from nine members to seven, and it’s clear the government is moving in a more unified direction.  It seems like a government distinctly less likely to experiment and take the necessary gambles.
4. As yourself and many other commentators have pointed out, China faces a demographic challenge in the coming decades. After 2015, China’s workers will become increasingly older and the burden of taking care of this ‘graying’ population will rise. Some have speculated that China’s rise may in fact be peaking. Can China reverse this trend in your view by say scrapping its one-child policy? In what way will demographics shape China’s geo-strategic goals in your view? Could it limit its rise as a true global power?

It’s certainly true that demographics are not on China’s side.  Today there are three workers for every pensioner in China.  By 2030, there will be just two.   And demographics are just one piece of the riddle.  China is not only going to run out of cheap labor, but cheap labor won’t be the advantage it used to be.  It’s about robotics.  It’s about 3-D printing.  As technology makes labor-intensive manufacturing a relatively more expensive option, it’s going to put huge pressure on the decision making processes of Chinese State-Owned Enterprises, if they want to be efficient.  After all, China is a state capitalist nation, where leaders’ desire for economic growth only exists insofar as it can keep them in power.  If growth means restructuring huge sections of the economy and contending with a related spike in unemployment, don’t expect Beijing to take on these reforms lightly.  The overall labor force dynamics—including demographics, labor cost and technology—are certainly going to limit China’s rise.

Comments
27
SandyPiranha
December 10, 2012 at 22:43

Very Interesting & very revealing. Kindly tell us the 4 other names apart from Xinxiang, Tibet

Monk
November 27, 2012 at 05:46

I am very curious. We have 3 out of 6, Tibet, Xinjjiang and inner Mongolia. What are other 3? we'd love to see it sooner than 2017.

Stephen S
November 26, 2012 at 20:55

America WILL continue with its long term agend, that includes the Middle East, and total domination Globally. To start with, at this present day, if America withdrew all troops from the Middle East and discontinued Military growth, their economy would collapse imediately. It is all that remains to prop up their economy, through sales of arms and weaponry. What recently has gone down between Israel and Hamas, was nothing more than a sales to pitch to prospective countries in the purchase of the "Iron Dome". This sort of mental culture shall continue well into the future, even with their enevitable financial collapse. In fact, this culture will only grow more as a result!
I disagree on the Demographics in relation to China, they are a very hard working nation, workers expectations are still far less then the western world, Australia too has much the same: 3-4 workers per every unemployed, yet Australia has endured thus far. China's growth throughout the globe has only just past idle, and the engine is beginning to move up a gear or two, they have over the past 5yrs made substancial inroads in trade relations, especially Asia, where as America has left its move a little to late, and previous inroads into the area have and still are waning, and not without good reason, they have abused the locals, polluted their lands, and rape them of their wealth. In Austalia, sometime this year, i think around March 2012, a TPPA draft was pressured onto the Australian government, that was instructed "secret". Some "leaks" of the draft reveals very little detail, a fact that was raised. These finer "details" we were informed would be forthcoming some 12mths after we sign the pact. How transparant is that? Some other issues leaked from the draft show Australia (and several other countries) must forego any legal litigation against American phamacutical companies for drugs and goods imported to Australia, weather neglect can be proved or not. This is just a couple of examples of the multitude of issues. Further, the draft also shows authority of Australian goods (property and assets) may be seized, without litigation or compensation. It is a far cry from the respectful and transparant process in trading with China!
 

Dean
November 26, 2012 at 06:00

John Chan,
There's no need for answering that silly question, Chan. But one thing you should know ' You can not forever cover up the truth. It'll be coming out quicker than you think!'

John LaChance
November 26, 2012 at 03:44

The question was asked: "How does an established power, such as the United States, deal with a rising power, such as China?"
Why, the same way we dealt with the Soviet Union. We break it apart into its constituent elements. There are six countries in China held together by the force of guns and a rising economy. What the US is doing is destabilizing China so that the various ethnic elements seek autonomy. And guess what happens after that? Why, the same thing that happened to the Soviet Union.
It's simple, really. A united China is a threat. A dismembered China is 6 worker units vying against each other for market share. Don't worry folks. We have this one in the bag, scheduled for 2017. The Dalai Lama should be glad, because one of these six countries that we are now in the process of breaking China into is Tibet, a free and autonomous Tibet.

 

John Chan
November 26, 2012 at 01:57

@Dean,
Are you sure Dean is not your alias of Gordon Chang or Minxin Pei?

Dean
November 25, 2012 at 12:48

Just wait & see, comrade Chan. Don't be too  boastful . Things will be playing out soon. You can not kick the can down the road  for ever & ever, comrade!

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