By Scott A. Snyder

While many made note of a recent speech by N. Korea's leader, it maybe what Pyongyang wants to hear from S. Korea that might be of real interest.

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An annual ritual of North Korea’s is the release of a lengthy propaganda statement on New Year’s Day that serves as guidance and provides a sense of priorities for the coming year.  Under Kim Jong-il, the statement came in the form of a joint New Year’s Day editorial by three leading news organs, but Kim Il-sung gave the speech himself.  Kim Jong-un does not appear to have the same fear of public speaking that his father apparently had, so he gave the speech, which was broadcast on North Korean television, and is available through YouTube (see below). Even though Kim is not afraid to read a speech in front of a camera, the echoing of the room, despite North Korean cutaways to a building accompanied by an applause track, suggests that Kim did not present the speech to a live audience. Curious.

The speech has been panned as a repetition of the same old, same old, here and here, while it was greeted in the South Korean media as potential evidence of North Korean openness to an olive branch from Seoul.  I see the speech as a reiteration of North Korea’s basic conditions for stabilizing the inter-Korean relationship with a conservative South Korean leader, namely, an insistence that “all the compatriots in the north, south and abroad should launch a dynamic struggle to carry out to the letter the June 15 Joint Declaration and October 4 Declaration, great reunification programs common to the nation in the new century and milestones for peace and prosperity.”

Photo Credit: flickr/zennie62

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    1. Kangmin Zheng

      A united Korea?   CCP will have another enemy.

      Reply
    2. Anon

      Kim is much more intelligent than we have supposed!

      Reply
      • Lnrds

        Kim's belly is much more full with nice food than we have supposed.

        Reply
        • Anon

          The posts of the "Tibet!" "Xinjiang!" "Manchuria!"..or whatever new de rigueur region ripe for chants of secession by the teenage readers on this site make Kim look like Einstein in comparison.
          If he means what he said, he would start delivering on the promises of his grandfather which his father failed to do. Compared to the newly ascended "Banzai!" rightwing hawks in Japan and the bellicose "pivoting to Asia" US, he sounds like the bastion of reason and diplomacy. He makes China happy as (1) China gets a potential new business and development partner in its ally, a goal that China tried unsuccessfully to steer his father towards and (2) it brings stability across China's border, less refugee problems,  (3) it keeps the hostile South Koreans engaged and busy for at least a decade planning reunification, (4) it forces the US and Japan to come clean about whom they are actually targeting, i.e. China. No more hiding behind Axis-of-Evil smoke-and-mirrors.
           
          US will have to answer to Americans *why* it should go to war with China in order for Japan to claim soveriegnty over islands it annexed from China in 1895, and which should have been reverted back via Potsdam and Cairo Declarations.
           
          As for those who hope gleefully that a united Korea will then try to annex Manchuria, sorry, not going to happen. N Korea will not let their land and people be the new sacrificial DMZ in the frontline of fire with a huge neighbor, China. China has fought two huge wars in Korea, it will not hesitate to repeat history if Koreans covet and make a move on Gando. A land war is exactly what the PLA excels in. So Koreans will weigh the pros and cons and will likely opt for greater stability and prosperity for their future generations by keeping good relations with their giant neighbor.

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          • Lnrds

            The key word is IF. IF this and that. The problem with this guy is that HE DOESN'T MEAN WHAT HE SAYS. As for NK regime they don't want reunification if that means SK will run the show. They [NK] certainly talk it up a lot, China won't allow it and would rather back NK again for their own interests.
            To go against your points
            1) He doesn't make China happy, NK is an annoyance to China and the reason why they put up with him and the regime is so that they don't want a US influenced state right at its door step. Many nations also hassle China about NK and they get dragged into talks. China plays the game and would rather put up with refugees and a crazy regime than have a unified Korea that is an opposite force to China's dominance.
            2) A country that has its citizens fleeing daily to another country shows just how unstable it is. Only a matter of time when this NK regime self destruct and by god it will self destruct.
            3) The hostile South? Do you read history and the NK hostile acts the past few years? It was the "eternal leader" who invaded the south in 1950, its stems from that guy to 2013 and its not going to change. Because of that hostile act naturally it gives the opponent to react back and come up with their schemes for revenge/teach NK regime a lesson.
            4) US and Japan don't need to announce/come clean, we all know its all about China, they know, the whole world knows. What is so important about them coming clean? will it even make a difference? if they sat upon the world stage and talked up and confessed what US/Japans intentions are, saying nothing or confessing…gives this whole situation too much credibility so its not a win/win situation and life goes on..

    3. mareo2

       
      "…while it was greeted in the South Korean media as potential evidence of North Korean openness to an olive branch from Seoul…"
       
      I think that we all know how this is going to end, it as being played so many times before. The Kim dynasty "roll out the red carpet" and sooner or later they "pull the rug from under" the feet of the well meant people.

      Reply
    4. angelus512

      I don't understand how re-unification is in the interests of N Korean leadership. If ever S and N were reunited its clear as day that the leadership of "Korea" is going to have a S Korean as head.
      If N Korea thinks a reunified Korea would somehow allow for a N Korea head/President they are seriously delusional. 

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      • tony

        Never mind about the N and S Korea being re-united China will not stand for this and will put her fist down hard perhaps with an invasion, so it will stay as it is  

        Reply
        • applesauce

          i dont think so, a united korea would not cause a panick in, nor prompt an invasion from beijing. what china has a problem is, first potentially millions of refugees flooding into china, and second, the US military getting too close to the Chinese border. remove those 2 factors, im sure the PRC would be happy to remove a lunatic nation from their borders

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