This year, the U.S. will likely surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia as the largest liquids fuel producer in the world.
From previously challenging the “tyranny of oil,” newly inaugurated U.S. President Barack Obama enters his second term in office as leader of a potential oil and gas superpower.
According to BP’s Energy Outlook 2030, unconventional sources will make the United States virtually energy self-sufficient by 2030, largely thanks to the shale gas revolution.
“The U.S. will likely surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia in 2013 as the largest liquids producer in the world (crude and biofuels) due to tight oil and biofuels growth…. Russia will likely pass Saudi Arabia for the second slot in 2013 and hold that until 2023. Saudi Arabia regains the top oil producer slot by 2027,” the London-based oil and gas giant said.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has forecast that the nation could become a net exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as early as 2016, and a net exporter of total natural gas (including via pipelines) by 2020.
For the Asia-Pacific region, potential U.S. gas exports could undercut higher priced gas from Australia and elsewhere, resulting in lower fuel bills for major importers such as Japan and South Korea.
However, fast-growing China and India are expected to become even more reliant on imports to satisfy domestic demand, BP said in its report.
With the world’s population seen reaching 8.3 billion by 2030 and income doubling in real terms from 2011 levels, BP expects an additional 1.3 billion people will require energy. This will result in global energy demand being 36 percent higher in 2030 compared to 2011, with almost all growth (93 percent) coming from non-OECD economies.
The Asia-Pacific region will produce the most rapid growth in energy production, largely from coal, generating 35 percent of global energy production by 2030.
The report states that unconventional sources such as shale gas, tight oil, heavy oil and biofuels will transform the energy balance of the United States.
“By 2030, increasing production and moderating demand will result in the U.S. being 99 percent self-sufficient in net energy; in 2005 it was only 70 percent self-sufficient,” it said.
Production from unconventional sources will provide all the net growth in global oil supply to 2020, and more than 70 percent of the growth to 2030.
Photo Credit: Wikicommons
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Robbie Stewart
After living in the Middle East for 10 years and seeing the rise of economies and the lack of business planning and profitability on a massive scale, I see the USA as continuing to lead the world in innovation, ingenuity and resourcefulness especially in the energy sector. Shale gas extraction will sustain our supply, but there are big environmental and economic limitations that must be overcome if we are to “surpass” the Russians and Saudis. THAT is speculation and I wouldnt bet on it.
Juanito
"Coal growth will slow to 1.2 percent a year, with India overtaking the United States as the second-largest coal consumer by 2024 behind China."
Despite the supposed glories of "clean" coal [James Fallows}, Chinese/Indian consumption of coal could be the deal breaker of all deal breakers in planet history. Critical advance is necessary in the development of passive technologies for CO2 absorption. After all, how much oxygen making up the Earth's atmosphere is produced by oceanic phytoplankton? Carbonic acid will kill the phytoplankton.
Marguerite
You can’t seriously assume fracking the US for shale gas will continue. It is an unviable resource given the extremely hazardous environmental and health issues involved in extraction. Absolutely untenable.
On a brighter note, the sun and wind resource outlook is extremely promising in such a large and enterprising nation. England and Germany have shown these technologies to be very successful in providing up to one third of the energy used in a day, along with constant innovative improvements to increase output.
This is America’s future in energy. It’s already sweeping the nation. And when the megafunding given shale moves to wind and solar, the US will lead the world in intelligent energy production.
Charles
Any questions on how are we going to deal whith 8.3 billion consumers and the pressure on this planet resources.
Borys Pawliw
Extraction costs are still a little on the high side – varying from US$28 per barrel to US$92 for some of the worst ones, but the costs of this technology are falling ~2-3% per annum, so the outlook is good. It will require many conditions for us to go back to oil at <$50 per barrel, but really, the US is in the box seat now: energy independence for all intents and purposes, and soon the ability to export energy. No wonder Russia's days in the sun are looking less likely.
Muhammad NaIya
A little too conjunctive I'd say. The costs associatesd with biofuels and the shale oil simply means they cannot compete with the current producers of fossil fuels. Besides, the technology needed to replace the systems in use is still somewhat prohibitive.
The best option still remains a sensible use of the fossil fuel with investments in R&D to replace the fossil fuels where ever that is economically feasible even though the current economic cisis in the US and the EU makes that most unlikely for the foreseeable future and thats essentially because the voters are likely to revolt at any price shocks..
Wally
I love you Pharaoh Hussein, Smart and Handsome Offspring of the Sun God and all honour and praise to your Divine Consort Michelle, Mother of the Nation.
All hail!
Matthew Hall
This will reduce America's trade deficit as well.
Adam
Not until the Republicans with conservative leadership are in charge for twelve straight years, otherwise the Dems through the EPA will prevent any use of fossil fuels which will make us all poorer
Steve
Guaranteed the US govt will screw this up…