Based on BP’s forecasts, the world’s continued reliance on fossil fuels will see global greenhouse gases exceed recommended levels above 450 parts per million of carbon-dioxide equivalent.
BP estimates oil, gas and coal will each command market shares of around 26 to 28 percent by 2030, with non-fossil fuels such as nuclear, hydro and renewables remaining at around 6 to 7 percent each.
Despite reduced energy intensity, growth in renewables and substitution of coal with gas, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are still forecast to increase by 26 percent from 2011 to 2030.
“Most of the growth will come from non-OECD countries, so that by 2030 70 percent of CO2 emissions are expected to come from outside the OECD,” BP said.
Renewables are anticipated to be the fastest growing source of energy, growing by 7.6 percent a year, but are only expected to provide 11 percent of global electricity production by 2030, up from 3 percent in 2011.
Despite recent smog, China’s efforts to improve energy use are seen resulting in lower coal demand from 2020 and improved global energy intensity. Without the improvement, BP said the world would need to almost double energy supply by 2030.
Changing energy mix
Natural gas is expected to be the fastest growing among fossil fuels at 2 percent a year, with shale gas seen supplying 53 percent of U.S. gas production by 2030. Coal growth will slow to 1.2 percent a year, with India overtaking the United States as the second-largest coal consumer by 2024 behind China.
Oil demand will increase at just 0.8 percent a year, with its share of energy consumption falling to 28 percent by 2030. All net oil demand growth will come from outside the OECD, with half coming from China, India, and the Middle East alone.
Despite the Fukushima disaster, nuclear energy output is expected to grow by 2.6 percent a year, compared to an average growth rate of 1.6 percent over the last two decades. 88 percent of growth in nuclear energy will come from China, India and Russia. By 2026, China is seen overtaking the United States as the largest producer of nuclear power. Four years later Beijing will account for 30 percent of nuclear energy production, according to BP.
While long a major coal exporter, Australia is forecast to overtake Qatar as the largest LNG supplier by 2018, accounting for a quarter of global production by 2030.
However, U.S. gas exports to Asia could undercut Australian LNG exports, while aiding major importers such as Japan and South Korea.
According to Japanese daily Asahi Shimbun, the subject of U.S. gas exports to Japan has already been raised in top-level talks between the two allies, with Japan eyeing lower costs to manufacturers and households along with a reduced trade deficit.
The United States may reap the gains, but Asia’s policymakers face a careful balancing act in ensuring the region benefits rather than paying the price of the energy revolution.
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Robbie Stewart
After living in the Middle East for 10 years and seeing the rise of economies and the lack of business planning and profitability on a massive scale, I see the USA as continuing to lead the world in innovation, ingenuity and resourcefulness especially in the energy sector. Shale gas extraction will sustain our supply, but there are big environmental and economic limitations that must be overcome if we are to “surpass” the Russians and Saudis. THAT is speculation and I wouldnt bet on it.
Juanito
"Coal growth will slow to 1.2 percent a year, with India overtaking the United States as the second-largest coal consumer by 2024 behind China."
Despite the supposed glories of "clean" coal [James Fallows}, Chinese/Indian consumption of coal could be the deal breaker of all deal breakers in planet history. Critical advance is necessary in the development of passive technologies for CO2 absorption. After all, how much oxygen making up the Earth's atmosphere is produced by oceanic phytoplankton? Carbonic acid will kill the phytoplankton.
Marguerite
You can’t seriously assume fracking the US for shale gas will continue. It is an unviable resource given the extremely hazardous environmental and health issues involved in extraction. Absolutely untenable.
On a brighter note, the sun and wind resource outlook is extremely promising in such a large and enterprising nation. England and Germany have shown these technologies to be very successful in providing up to one third of the energy used in a day, along with constant innovative improvements to increase output.
This is America’s future in energy. It’s already sweeping the nation. And when the megafunding given shale moves to wind and solar, the US will lead the world in intelligent energy production.
Charles
Any questions on how are we going to deal whith 8.3 billion consumers and the pressure on this planet resources.
Borys Pawliw
Extraction costs are still a little on the high side – varying from US$28 per barrel to US$92 for some of the worst ones, but the costs of this technology are falling ~2-3% per annum, so the outlook is good. It will require many conditions for us to go back to oil at <$50 per barrel, but really, the US is in the box seat now: energy independence for all intents and purposes, and soon the ability to export energy. No wonder Russia's days in the sun are looking less likely.
Muhammad NaIya
A little too conjunctive I'd say. The costs associatesd with biofuels and the shale oil simply means they cannot compete with the current producers of fossil fuels. Besides, the technology needed to replace the systems in use is still somewhat prohibitive.
The best option still remains a sensible use of the fossil fuel with investments in R&D to replace the fossil fuels where ever that is economically feasible even though the current economic cisis in the US and the EU makes that most unlikely for the foreseeable future and thats essentially because the voters are likely to revolt at any price shocks..
Wally
I love you Pharaoh Hussein, Smart and Handsome Offspring of the Sun God and all honour and praise to your Divine Consort Michelle, Mother of the Nation.
All hail!
Matthew Hall
This will reduce America's trade deficit as well.
Adam
Not until the Republicans with conservative leadership are in charge for twelve straight years, otherwise the Dems through the EPA will prevent any use of fossil fuels which will make us all poorer
Steve
Guaranteed the US govt will screw this up…