The second scenario is a democratic transition in China itself. This may not be a realistic possibility in the short-term (the next five years), but the probability of a democratic transition in China is non-trivial and is on the rise. The country has reached a level of socioeconomic development (about $U.S. 8,500 per capita in purchasing power parity) at which few non-oil producing autocracies can survive. Signs of political awakening, such as the recent anti-censorship protest, calls for democracy, and civic activism, have emerged in China. Endemic corruption inside the regime, loss of public credibility, and extreme income inequality have greatly undermined the legitimacy of the ruling Communist Party. The question of regime transition in China is a matter of when and how, not whether or not. Should such a political revolution occur, a new democratic regime in Beijing will most likely jettison Pyongyang and embrace a reunified democratic Korea.
Even in the event of a rapid collapse of the North Korean regime, triggered most likely by a military coup or a popular uprising (or a combination of both) against the Kim dynasty, China’s capacity to intervene militarily in order to prevent reunification is questionable. North Korea has nuclear weapons, a factor that is likely to deter China from sending the People’s Liberation Army across the Yalu River should the Kim dynasty be overthrown by an internal uprising.
For all its analytical flaws, the Senate minority report does raise a valuable question, not for the U.S. Senate, as its title suggests, but for the Chinese government. Beijing needs to review – and completely change – its Korea policy, which is based on erroneous and obsolete strategic assumptions that are driving away South Korea as a potential regional partner.
The fundamental strategic rationale for Beijing to maintain the status quo on the Korean peninsula is to deny the U.S. a possible overland invasion route for the Chinese mainland. In the age when China’s weakest strategic link is the combination of its dependence on imported energy and its lack of capabilities to protect its sea lines of communication, such a rationale is obviously erroneous. Those with the faintest knowledge of American strategic thinking understand that in the event of a military conflict with China (an unthinkable scenario for two nuclear-armed great powers) a land invasion is the last option the Pentagon would pursue.The American military will almost certainly deploy its far superior naval and air capabilities in such a conflict. North Korea will be of little use to China in such a scenario.
A Chinese government with a modicum of strategic foresight must thus fundamentally alter its Korea policy. Instead of obstructing Korean reunification, Beijing must embrace it and place its chips on the side of Seoul. Only such a policy will serve China’s long-term interests.
Reddit
Digg
StumbleUpon
Delicious
Technorati
Yahoo
Google
Plurk
Ghenghis
The author of the article is badly out of touch with reality to assert that China's course of action follow his pro-west outcome. More likely is that China will settle the issue like it did for milleniums — re-annex all Korea and push the americans out of Korea for good. It happened before when the peasant army of China routed the Americans all to the southern tip of S. Korea. As a modern militarized state, China is order of magnitude more capable of giving the Big Nose a very bloody nose.
ting_m_1999
@American Pragnatist: IU'm more civilized that yopu by not calling people name. I rebuke you as follows: 1) America never succeeded in pushing the North Koreans over the Yalu River in the Korean War. Even when USA poured all its powerful weapons into the war and was able to defeat the powerful German army, it could not defeat China in the Korean war. It was the fact that USA could not push any further north the 38th Parallel and the war is no end in sight that led USA to the armistice at the 38th Parallel.
2) The then S Korean government would not have existed if USA didn't intervene. 3) China is improving on its own way against all outside attempts of control
JP
Always a possibility…if China doesn't block Korean reunification, it will at least want to maintain the maximum amount of influence on the peninsula.
RollingWave
A much saner article in comparison with the one below it.
From a pure military POV though, in the unlikely event of a China / US war, even excluding the possibility of an invasion from Korea, there is the other way around, a North Korea / China combined invasion of the South which may force the US to do exactly what it wants to do least, putting men on the ground to fight them.
Having said that, I totally expect to see a united Korea within 20 years, Kim Jun Un is almost certainly going to be the last Kim.
Kim’s Uncle
CCP regime only cares for itself and to use DPRK as a stooge is more important than to the well being of ordinary North Koreans suffering under the book of the Kim Family Regime. North Koreans are still trying to flee North Korea by whatever means necessary but CCP barbaric regime could careless. CCP regime can send tanks out to run over its own Chinese citizens so the well being of North Koreans are of no concern to the thugs of CCP.
harry
I am a Pound (£) shop consumer and I thank China for producing cheap stuff for the poor people all over the World who can't afford things produced in Europe and America.
anagnostes
I wonder why no one questions the clearly nationalistic nature of the Korean problem. Nationalism is no rational principle. Nations are fluid entities, which constantly re-invent themselves. For instance, pre-WWII German nationalism included Austria, while post-WWII nationalism accepted the loss of 1/3 of the former Greater Germany as well as the fact that Austria couldn't be part of Germany. However, West and East Germany were unified on the basis of the principle that they "had to belong together", and whoever in those days opposed reunification was branded a traitor.
The one China principle shared by the Chinese Communist Party in the PRC and by the Guomindang in the ROC are also based on the view that mainland China and Taiwan are one nation. However, this kind of nationalism is considered by the West "Chinese imperialism". So, are the media using nationalism to advance other political purposes? Is Chinese nationalism bad because the West hates China and whatever China does is dangerous and despicable, while Korean nationalism is noble and just? For sure, a great part of the people in Taiwan don't want to be part of the PRC. But a lot of young Korean people don't really see reunification as a priority, they are indoctrinated that "being one nation" is a quasi religious duty of every citizen. Please, whenever we make a statement, let us analyze from different perspectives the principles and axioms on which we base our thinking, so that arguments can be absolutely clear and free from concealed political assumptions.
http://my-new-life-in-asia.blogspot.tw/2013/01/the-taiwan-question-does-taiwan-belong-to-china_11.html
Having said this, I don't mean I am against Taiwan as a nation, but I am not against North and South Korea as separate nations. We have to look at nationalism from an objective, calm standpoint, and then make decisions according to rational political and economic criteria.
Kim’s Uncle
Just curious if CCP rule collapses tomorrow, will we see John Chan, aka: wu Mao, typing away feverishly defending the Red Chinese Commonwealth no matter what?? I’m so glad Maoism is so alive in China!! :)
C C P Member
Most of the CCP bloggers might sitting somewhere comfortably in "Democratic Countries" breathing freedom air, collecting welfare and spitting all hatred to the WEST.
They are not represent the million voiceless, hardworking, honest Tibetans, Chinese who are living under the oppressions authoritarian CCP rule.
Be Way
@CCP Member,
Last week I just update myself of the many new development happening in China,
1. Millions of Chinese are now preparing the journey home for the Lunar New Year. The family must be enjoying themselves with a big reunion feast that their once-starving parents can never dream of.
2. Millions of Chinese are traveling as tourists to every corner of the world annually, pampering themselves with the luxurious of good lives
3. Millions of young Chinese now have all the opportunities to study locally and overseas, ranging from basic degree to PHD.
4. Millions of Chinese are buying big cars, small cars, exotic cars, luxurious cars, whatever cars, culminating China to be NO 1 car market.
5. Many more.
So if you and the old Kim's uncle can't see and read what is the latest news, it's a sign of old age. With due respect, old people tend to be forgetful of what is going on, mumble too often about other people problems and the worst is they suffered senility too.
alphamarine
The problem is that many people who living in the west tend to get their info from anti-east biased without know what is actually happen inside the country.I understand very well because i came from the third world country which the news on the internet is quiet different from what I see with own eyes.
Kim’s history
Have you ever thought about the many deliberate killings of Korean civilians carried out by U.S. troops and U.S. combat planes during the Korean War ? Remember the infamous No Gun Ri massacre ? It is time for Korean people to eject such unneeded vermin from their homeland and stop paying further homage to these irredeemable global killers.
Kim’s Uncle
Atrocities happen in war and sadly and tragically innocent people are the victim. Soldiers of democratic countries commit atrocity too, we know that. Just as democratic countries have individuals who are criminal and have no morals so do some members of the military in democratic countries. If an atrocity committed by a military member of a democratic country and the responsible member of high command are aware of it, then they have a moral obligation to discipline members who commit crimes such as illegal killings. Democratic countries prosecute and lock up their criminal elements within their military while barbaric Communist countries usually promote their murderers. I think you are emotionally naive to not know the difference between atrocities committed by individuals of the military of a democratic country from an atrocity committed by military members of a dictatorship. Dictatorship orders their members to commit atrocity such as murder as a directive order and government policy and if those orders are not obeyed Communist soldier would be executed.
Btw, please tell me when you will immigrate to DPRK? I will help you immigrate to live under Kim Jong Un anytime because you sound like you really want to live there!!
That's why no reasonable or responsible members of South Korean society wish to end the alliance with the US. South Korea is democratic because the US has help it along to become democratic and free. South Korea is so free that even a commie sympathizer such as yourself live in it rather in the DPRK. If you deluded yourself into thinking the DPRK is paradise, then by all means, move there. I will help you out with the moving expense.