While this is a strong record of cooperation, there are still many areas for further enhancement. Economically, the CEPA means greater economic connectivity, which is especially beneficial given the complimentary nature of their economies. For instance, continued Japanese growth will require more workers and greater engagement with growing markets. India can therefore play a vital role with its booming economy, lower production costs, and an expanding middle class that is creating greater demand for high-end products. India’s growth, on the other hand, requires investments in 21st century infrastructure and technological expertise, both of which Tokyo can help provide. For example, Delhi intends to spend $1 trillion on infrastructure projects over the next five years, and hopes to finance 40 percent of this with private capital. Similarly, India will require Japan’s technology and investment to help close technological gaps and an infrastructure deficit.
Diplomatically, both countries want international institutions to reflect today’s multi-polarity. They also advocate nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, and hope to prevent the proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destructions and the means to deliver them. Similarly, Tokyo and Delhi share a strong and growing interest in preserving freedom of navigation in the maritime commons, which both are heavily reliant on for their energy imports and trade. They also share an enduring interest in preventing any country from establishing hegemony over the Indo-Pacific region, with China a growing concern for both countries.
Although there are plenty of reasons for optimism, there are still a number of barriers to advancing Indo-Japanese ties. For example, despite the rapid growth of economic ties in recent years, Japanese investors are not completely sold on India’s business climate. Not only do they find it difficult to work through the labyrinthine Indian bureaucracy, but they are also concerned about India’s poor infrastructure, opaque legal and taxation systems, and official corruption. Similarly, civilian nuclear cooperation remains stalled due to India’s refusal to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a non-nuclear weapon state. This is where Abe’s victory becomes important. Having a pro-India premier in Japan may convince investors who are wary of doing business in India. Likewise, Abe’s LDP victory came at the expense of the anti-nuclear parties, and Abe can be expected to push for a civilian nuclear agreement with India, much as countries like the U.S., Russia, Canada, and South Korea have done, and others like Australia are now in the process of doing.
Perhaps security will encounter the fewest impediments. Both countries share concerns over China’s maritime behavior and freedom of navigation. While both have powerful navies, neither is strong enough alone to secure the maritime commons and thus has an interest in reliable partners. India’s navy and coast guard cannot monitor all the Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) traffic that transits the Strait of Malacca through to the Persian Gulf, so it requires interstate cooperation to handle challenges in waters near India as well as SLOCs farther away. While Japan’s navy does not operate in Indian waters (it’s legally able to defend up to 1,000 nautical miles from Japan), under special legislation it participates in limited anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden. They benefit from each other’s surveillance, and have begun holding joint naval exercises. Greater cooperation in these efforts do not face any great constraints, which is important given that cooperation will help them hedge against unpredictable futures.
Because of his enthusiasm for stronger relations with Japan in India, Abe’s win provides a unique opportunity for the two great powers to expand their cooperation. With few obstacles standing in the way, we soon could be witnessing a flourishing of Indo-Japan bilateral ties.
Jeffrey W. Hornung is an Associate Professor at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu, HI and an Adjunct Fellow with the Office of the Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. The views expressed in this article are his alone.