As tensions rise, Linda Jakobson looks at how China’s leader-in-waiting may be involved—and the role of dysfunctional decision-making.
The announcement by Japan’s defense minister that a Chinese frigate last month locked its weapons-control radar onto a Japanese destroyer was jarring. The already tense stand-off between Beijing and Tokyo over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands escalated to a new and dangerous level.
Japanese officials have not clarified whether the incident took place on the high seas or in disputed waters. Chinese officials have not confirmed the incident. But the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) spokeswoman initially gave a vague answer when asked about it, giving rise to speculation that government officials in Beijing were not entirely on top of the most recent turn of events. The fact that the MFA was not kept in the loop about a military incident like this is not surprising. The power of the ministry has been on the decline for several years. There are numerous examples of the MFA not being consulted on, or informed of, decisions made by other government agencies, let alone the PLA.
A more crucial question is whether or not Xi Jinping had approved of the Chinese frigate locking its radar onto the Japanese vessel. Consequently, analysts around the world are once again pondering a perpetual question: Is the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) acting independently of the Communist Party (CPC) leadership?
The only honest answer to the question is that we simply do not know. Decision-making processes in China are opaque. We know that major political decisions are made by the all-powerful seven-member Politburo Standing Committee, headed by Xi Jinping, who is also the chair of the Central Military Commission. As the only civilian on the Central Military commission, Xi is the crucial link between senior civilian and military leaders, but nothing is known about the precise nature of interaction between Xi and PLA leaders when pivotal decisions are made. Not even the timing and agenda of either the Politburo Standing Committee or Central Military Commission meetings are made public.
Based on private discussions I have had with Chinese officials since the Japanese government’s purchase of three of the five disputed islands in September 2012, the most recent escalation reflects the next step in plans made by China’s senior leaders in response to what Beijing perceives as an intolerable state of affairs. Xi Jinping was reportedly made head of a new “Office to Respond to the Diaoyu Crisis” soon after the Japanese government’s announcement. State Counsellor Dai Binguo, China’s top diplomat for the past five years, as well as several senior military officers were assigned to this task force.
From Beijing’s perspective, the decision by the Japanese government last September to purchase the islands from their private owner signaled the nationalization of the islands, an unacceptable change in the status quo. According to my sources, a step-by-step plan was devised by the new Diaoyu task force and then approved by Xi to deal with each possible contingency. The plan’s goal is to force the Japanese government to at a minimum acknowledge that the sovereignty of the islands is disputed. Japan’s current stance is that there is no dispute – the islands belong to Japan. A change in Japan’s stance would open up the possibility for both sides to use diplomatic channels to agree that vessels of each respective nation would patrol the disputed waters on alternate days to assert sovereignty. More importantly, it could facilitate discussions on sharing fishing rights in the disputed waters. Fishermen have been at the center of several disputes which have led to an escalation of tensions between the two countries.
Photo Credit: Wikicommons
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SC Lai
So did Bush, Chipney, Rumsfield, Bliar, CIA and State department said Iraq had WMD.
Samurai X
Spokeswoman Victoria Nuland today commented that the US believed that Chinese frigate DID lock the laser onto Japanese frigate. Japan has already stated that they have the proof both with data and video, and most likely has shown it to the US.
This is a real embarrassment for China and Xi, especially his spokeswoman Huang blamed Japan for lying. But Nuland’s comment only means that 1) the world is about to find out that China is a liar, or 2) Xi and CCP has no control over PLA and they aren’t informed correctly. Whichever it is, Japan stood strong this time and didn’t back down from China’s thug activities. Xi has no choice but call it quit, and this mistake of Chinese foreign policy will be a great encouragement for Philippine, Vietnam and Taiwan. Great Job, Prime Minister Abe!
Anon
Again, I see a historic pattern…will this current conflict and resultant arms race collapse the US-Japan-NATO axis, all deeply in debt, the way the USSR collapsed after over extending itself, invading and being bogged down in Afghanistan, while its own cities and economies decay?
Kim’s Uncle
I don’t think you know about economics huh? :). The USSR imploded because the centrally planned economy was unable to provide the goods and services to its population hence the shortages and long lines. Supply and demand was not in equilibrium! In advanced Western economies no one is starving, there no shortages!!!! Western countries produce goods n services for their own consumption not for exports!! You conflate the government running deficits as a sign a country is defaulting? LOL. If the US government is defaulting then no one would be willing to buy US Treasuries! But that is not the case! US t bills are consider risk free assets that’s why China, Japan and Saudi Arabia continue to buy US treasuries! US dollar is a reserve currency unlike china RMB. Write more so we laugh at your ignorance about international economics!
Kim’s Uncle
China’s economy depends on western n Japanese consumer markets because they are the only ones with purchasing power to buy china’s low tech cheap sh*t crap!!!! There is no such thing as Chinese consumer market. Most Chinese work and save most of their income because there is no safety net such social security in china! Over 2/3 of china’s GDP is derived from exports and without western markets china would have no economy! So many laughable Econ illiterate on here especially from mainland china! The US or Japan is not bankrupt! The government spends more than it takes in. That’s not bankrupt! It is a deficit! The government can always raise taxes if foreigners or investors stop buying US T bills! Remember most US economy is in private hands! There are no SOEs in the US unlike china! Private businesses produce goods n services for domestic consumption. The US does not depend on exports to generate its GDP. 70% of US GDP is derived from C the consumption part of the Keynesian equation not Ex the export part. Yeah go ahead China start a war let’s see no one will buy your cheap sh*t crap from slave labor!!! Your GDP will surely shrink and the “mass incidents” will explode in the CCP faces!
Andrew P
I don't see why locking a radar on a target had to be ordered at a high level. It is only a radar for gods sake. They didn't fire any weapons. Perhaps there was a high level decision to provoke Japan by any means short of actually firing, and the ship's commander decided to lock his radar in hopes that Japan would fire first.
AAA
When you look at China from history, China had not been an expansionist or a colonizer like the western powers.In olden days China had spent a lot of times in internal conflicts just to unit a whole China mainly the Hans race of what the 95% of China`s population now. China had not even considered Japanese, Korean and Vietnamese to be any part of Chinese empire through out the history. Imagine China had spent enormous resources and manpower just to build
walls in northen part to keep out the nomads Mongolians. Over different dynasties China had built a total of 36,000 km of walls! Now still 6,000 km of great walls standing. If China had been just 10% of bastard like western powers China would have taken all the fights into Mongolia and exterminated the nomads in no time. So over the known history of China spanning over 5,000 years China had not done anything near the wanton destruction, unnecesary killings and violence western powers have pepertrated said during WW1, WW2 and up to now like in the middle east Iraq, Afganistan, Libya, Syria and other african countries. That was like only 300 years of history of Western powers ascending to world power. Sorry that China has come back and China is set to claim its worldpower position again. China is a civilisation state unlike the nation state say US or all the European countries. There will no parellel between them and China even during the modern world. For instance right now Japan like what it is now can`t really stand a full assault from China. China knows for certain that US will not be able to anything if China flatten Japan or any of its neighbour country. But China will avoid war as far as possible. Look at what Russia did to Georgia a few years ago! US and Nato back Georgia was decimated.