The chain of events since Tokyo’s purchase of the islands would appear to confirm that a plan of this nature was drawn up. Beijing began sending civilian law enforcement vessels to patrol the area around the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, crossing into the 12- nautical-mile territorial zone around the islands, with the intention of “protecting” China’s sovereignty. Next, aircraft of these law enforcement agencies were sent to patrol the islands, prompting Japan to send fighter jets to intercept what Tokyo views as intruders. It wasn’t long before Chinese and Japanese jets were both engaging one another over the islands. It is not known whether the most recent action by China, the locking of radar onto a Japanese vessel, was the next step in the task force’s plan, but it seems plausible.
What is not plausible is that Xi Jinping would have personally approved this particular lock-on radar action; he would not have been consulted on one specific PLA operation. It is also unlikely that an individual frigate commander made the decision independently. The order presumably came from a senior level officer of the Northern Fleet command.
Although Xi presumably agreed to the task force’s plan of a step-by-step approach to increase pressure on Japan, a Chinese official I spoke to on January 10, 2013 said that Xi had not attended meetings of the “Office to Respond to the Diaoyu Crisis” since becoming General Secretary of the CCP in mid-November. If accurate and if Xi has not attended meetings between January 10 and the present (of which I have no information), Xi’s absence raises serious concerns related to the consequences of inattention by China’s senior leaders to the islands’ disputes – an issue I discussed in a recent Lowy Institute Analysis, China’s foreign policy dilemma.
Decision-making processes in China are often dysfunctional. In examples of the lack of control or coordination within China’s decision-making apparatus, the Ministry of Public Security and the Hainan provincial government both made unilateral decisions in recent months that damaged China’s international standing and caused an outcry in neighboring countries. Once a decision concerning a sensitive issue has been announced publicly it is very difficult for Xi to retract it. China does, after all, officially claim several disputed islands and the surrounding waters as its own territory, so issuing a directive to nullify a new directive related to sovereignty issues would be interpreted as bowing to outside pressure. As the new leader of the Communist Party, Xi must establish his credentials as a leader who will protect China’s national sovereignty and not allow outsiders to dictate China’s actions. Moreover, Xi has yet to consolidate his power base with numerous Communist Party factions that he relies on for political support.
The current situation between China and Japan is extremely worrisome. There is a genuine risk of a fatal incident occurring – whether intentional or accidental. In such a situation, Xi and Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would be under intense domestic pressure to respond harshly, given the nationalist sentiment in both countries. Neither leader would have much room to maneuver, and the situation could spiral out of control.
In sum, it is probable that Xi personally approved a step-by-step plan to intensify pressure on Japan to accept that the islands are disputed. But we do not know to what level of detail Xi Jinping is kept abreast of activities in the islands’ dispute. In the Lowy Institue Analysis, I quote a Chinese official involved in the standoff with Japan. He said, “It would be inaccurate to say that Xi Jinping is not aware of the dangers related to the Diaoyu issue, but at times he is intentionally given exaggerated assessments by those who want him to take a tough stance.” There are several groups of elites in China who would like Xi to take a “tougher stance”, especially when dealing with Japan.
Linda Jakobson is East Asia Program Director at the Lowy Institute for International Policy. Before moving to Sydney in 2011 she lived and worked in China for twenty years.
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SC Lai
So did Bush, Chipney, Rumsfield, Bliar, CIA and State department said Iraq had WMD.
Samurai X
Spokeswoman Victoria Nuland today commented that the US believed that Chinese frigate DID lock the laser onto Japanese frigate. Japan has already stated that they have the proof both with data and video, and most likely has shown it to the US.
This is a real embarrassment for China and Xi, especially his spokeswoman Huang blamed Japan for lying. But Nuland’s comment only means that 1) the world is about to find out that China is a liar, or 2) Xi and CCP has no control over PLA and they aren’t informed correctly. Whichever it is, Japan stood strong this time and didn’t back down from China’s thug activities. Xi has no choice but call it quit, and this mistake of Chinese foreign policy will be a great encouragement for Philippine, Vietnam and Taiwan. Great Job, Prime Minister Abe!
Anon
Again, I see a historic pattern…will this current conflict and resultant arms race collapse the US-Japan-NATO axis, all deeply in debt, the way the USSR collapsed after over extending itself, invading and being bogged down in Afghanistan, while its own cities and economies decay?
Kim’s Uncle
I don’t think you know about economics huh? :). The USSR imploded because the centrally planned economy was unable to provide the goods and services to its population hence the shortages and long lines. Supply and demand was not in equilibrium! In advanced Western economies no one is starving, there no shortages!!!! Western countries produce goods n services for their own consumption not for exports!! You conflate the government running deficits as a sign a country is defaulting? LOL. If the US government is defaulting then no one would be willing to buy US Treasuries! But that is not the case! US t bills are consider risk free assets that’s why China, Japan and Saudi Arabia continue to buy US treasuries! US dollar is a reserve currency unlike china RMB. Write more so we laugh at your ignorance about international economics!
Kim’s Uncle
China’s economy depends on western n Japanese consumer markets because they are the only ones with purchasing power to buy china’s low tech cheap sh*t crap!!!! There is no such thing as Chinese consumer market. Most Chinese work and save most of their income because there is no safety net such social security in china! Over 2/3 of china’s GDP is derived from exports and without western markets china would have no economy! So many laughable Econ illiterate on here especially from mainland china! The US or Japan is not bankrupt! The government spends more than it takes in. That’s not bankrupt! It is a deficit! The government can always raise taxes if foreigners or investors stop buying US T bills! Remember most US economy is in private hands! There are no SOEs in the US unlike china! Private businesses produce goods n services for domestic consumption. The US does not depend on exports to generate its GDP. 70% of US GDP is derived from C the consumption part of the Keynesian equation not Ex the export part. Yeah go ahead China start a war let’s see no one will buy your cheap sh*t crap from slave labor!!! Your GDP will surely shrink and the “mass incidents” will explode in the CCP faces!
Andrew P
I don't see why locking a radar on a target had to be ordered at a high level. It is only a radar for gods sake. They didn't fire any weapons. Perhaps there was a high level decision to provoke Japan by any means short of actually firing, and the ship's commander decided to lock his radar in hopes that Japan would fire first.
AAA
When you look at China from history, China had not been an expansionist or a colonizer like the western powers.In olden days China had spent a lot of times in internal conflicts just to unit a whole China mainly the Hans race of what the 95% of China`s population now. China had not even considered Japanese, Korean and Vietnamese to be any part of Chinese empire through out the history. Imagine China had spent enormous resources and manpower just to build
walls in northen part to keep out the nomads Mongolians. Over different dynasties China had built a total of 36,000 km of walls! Now still 6,000 km of great walls standing. If China had been just 10% of bastard like western powers China would have taken all the fights into Mongolia and exterminated the nomads in no time. So over the known history of China spanning over 5,000 years China had not done anything near the wanton destruction, unnecesary killings and violence western powers have pepertrated said during WW1, WW2 and up to now like in the middle east Iraq, Afganistan, Libya, Syria and other african countries. That was like only 300 years of history of Western powers ascending to world power. Sorry that China has come back and China is set to claim its worldpower position again. China is a civilisation state unlike the nation state say US or all the European countries. There will no parellel between them and China even during the modern world. For instance right now Japan like what it is now can`t really stand a full assault from China. China knows for certain that US will not be able to anything if China flatten Japan or any of its neighbour country. But China will avoid war as far as possible. Look at what Russia did to Georgia a few years ago! US and Nato back Georgia was decimated.