Even as tensions between Beijing and Tokyo grow by the day, there are good reasons to believe outright conflict can be avoided.
The sequel seldom improves on the original. Yet Shinzo Abe, Japan’s newly re-elected prime minister, has already displayed more conviction during his second spell at the Kantei than in the entire year of his first, unhappy premiership.
Political energy is a plus only when it’s wisely deployed however, and some fear that Abe is picking a fight he can’t win when it comes to his hardline stance on China.
Rather than attempting to soothe the tensions that built between Beijing and Tokyo in 2012, Abe has struck a combative tone, especially concerning their dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands – a keystone for nationalists in both countries. Each time fighter aircraft are scrambled or ships are sent to survey the likely flashpoint, we hear more warnings about the approach of a war that China and Japan now seem almost eager to wage. The Economist, for example,recently observed that, “China and Japan are sliding towards war,” while Hugh White of the Australian National University warned his readers: “Don't be too surprised if the U.S. and Japan go to war with China [in 2013].” News this week of another reckless act of escalation – Chinese naval vessels twice training their radars on their Japanese counterparts – will only have ratcheted up their concerns.
These doomful predictions came as Abe set out his vision of a more hard-nosed Japan that will no longer be pushed around when it comes to sovereignty issues. In his December op-ed on Project Syndicate Abe accused Beijing of performing “daily exercises in coercion” and advocated a “democratic security diamond” comprising Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. (rehashing a concept from the 2007 Quadrilateral Security Dialogue). He then proposed defense spending increases – Japan’s first in a decade – and strengthened security relations with the Philippines and Vietnam, which both share Tokyo’s misgivings about China’s intentions. An alliance-affirming trip to the U.S.is expected soon, and there is talk of Japan stationing F-15s on Shimojijima, close to the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.
However, Abe would argue that he is acting to strengthen Japan in order to balance a rising China and prevent a conflict, rather than creating the conditions for one. And he undoubtedly has a more sanguine view of the future of Sino-Japanese relations than those who see war as an ever more likely outcome. Of course, there is a chance that Chinese and Japanese ships or aircraft will clash as the dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands rumbles on; and, if they do, there is a chance that a skirmish could snowball unpredictably into a wider conflict.
But if Shinzo Abe is gambling with the region’s security, he is at least playing the odds. He is calculating that Japan can pursue a more muscular foreign policy without triggering a catastrophic backlash from China, based on the numerous constraints that shape Chinese actions, as well as the interlocking structure of the globalized environment which the two countries co-inhabit. Specifically, there are seven reasons to think that war is a very unlikely prospect, even with a more hawkish prime minister running Japan:
Photo Credit: Wikicommons
View as Single Page
Reddit
Digg
StumbleUpon
Delicious
Technorati
Yahoo
Google
Plurk
SHADOW-33
Only through the coming crysis, which in many ways has already begun, can change the relations between the two. It is only through the crysis that will seal the alliance.
Robert L
If leaders handled all situations with less ego. This world would be a safer more peaceful place with less laws, which in consequence make humans feel more human and free. Fighting over something clearly shows lack of desire for peace and clear selfishness and showing a big inability to recognize and admit and own up to the truth. Every situation can be solved easily and fairly and in the truth if it is desired. When leaders fail to do so it just shows leaders and governments are not there mainly for the people, they are there for themselves first and their friends. And using the psychological angle “its for the people interest” to back us down so we will shut up and not come back with the words that shows where they went wrong . Peace in this world can be obtained even with an over populated planet if most leaders would practice the map truth. You’ll ask what is map truth? It has to be explained and i cant through this form of communication. Entire countries prepare for destruction while others plan how to take advantage of it. If i ever get out of the destruction upon me il make website explaining all that i can!
Timojin
The USA "Pivot" is responsible for this mess emboldening the Japanese.
Of course the USA will rely upon it's Naval power if there is a serious flare-up.
Unfortunately for the USA and Japan, the Chinese have sufficient "Smart" Land based and mobile Sea based ASCM's and ASBM's to wipe out the USA aircraft carriers 1000 miles away before they can even get their attack aircraft into the air.
The Americans have great defensive capabilities with Anti-magnetic systems, lasers etc but they will not survive a serious and concentrated attack by hundreds of missiles, and 3rd, 4th and 5th generation strike fighters.
First hit of course will be Okinawa USA Base with a "Clean" 20kton Nuke; this prevents an attack by Japanese or Americans from there.
China is perfectly capable of denying access to the East China Sea to the USA Navy.
There will be anguish in Washington and the Pentagon and calls to nuke Beijing and Shanghai but that will not happen as the retaliation by China and possibly Russia would put the USA back unto the 18th century.
Don't believe that ICBM's carrying multi-megaton nukes can be intercepted by the patriot system…it is not infallable and many of the latest Chinese ballistic misiles have SES .. "Smart Evasion Spools" and the Chinese SCS's (super computer simulations) show a 68% accurate strike rate.
I hope Japan can desist from it's false claim to the islands that historicaly belong to China and also that the USA can resist the temptation to anything stupid again. (Remember Viet-Nam; Afghanistan, Iraq,)
If you need more information ask Bradley Manning.
Don't bother posting a reply denying the above; I will not respond.
Ny
I agrreee with you.
Just My View
As soon as the first nuke is fired it is over the US will retaliate with the same. Anyone that believes otherwise is just fooling themselves.
If the war is limited and conventional the US and Japan will win. Current defenses that the navy has can protect the fleets well enough to hold off Chinese missile attacks of course the navy will suffer heavy losses but not catastrophic. The Navy will have superior air power then Chinese military and its offensive capability will lead to their ability to control the area. The navy will have a base of support as well from the counties in the area that rather have US then Chinese interest served. This is the case because the US as no claim in the area so the counties in the area will have their territorial waters protected and recognized.
The US will try to seek peace early after early success by defeating Chinese military power outside of their recognized territory and limited attacks on Chinese military facilities (mainly ports and coastline airfields) on the Chinese mainland.
In the end of a limited war will be won by the US lead alliance vs china. The end will be most likely china having to give up all claims on lands they do not actively control and a reduction of territorial waters to 200 miles off their coast (this being the international norm). So pretty much a Status Quo ending for a large amount of life lost and resources wasted.
Now something else I would like to bring up is I do not believe that Russia will get involved outside of selling weapons and materials to anyone that will pay in the conflict. They simply do not have a dog in the fight. A win for china means that they become a bigger power in the are threaten their influence and their territorial claim in Siberia that is being populated every day with more and more Han Chinese. A win for the US also will see a decrease in their influence in the area, but not as much as a Chinese victory.
Now for a total war conventional war will be too complicated to know what will happen. It would become a world war and I believe if the US can get Indian support then the US will win. If Russia and India stay neutral then I believe it will result in the same as the limited war but with extreme loss of life and resources that would make WWII look like a mild disagreement. If Russia sides with China and India remains neutral I think it would depend how active the rest of Europe get in the war even then I can’t really say who will come out on top. If China gets a diplomatic Coup and India and Russia both side with them then the Eastern Hemisphere will be totally controlled by them except for Austria and maybe the Philippians and UK. Also depending on the situation in South America that may become a RCI strong hold on everything south of Columbia.
Nitish
Japan is having International support from USA,India,EU and China has only Pakistan, NK & lots of Chinese scrap technology
Roberto
@Nitish,
International support even from EU? Are you wonderfully prewritting history or prewritting history? Or you just don't pay attention to international news? The current Japanese Prime Minister's around the world sympathy seeking trip got cold responds from Germany, France, UK, Australia, Canada, ……………………..etc, etc. India, Vietnam and Phillipines are insiginificant in international politics. What you said is not true if not a lie.
Roberto
@Nitish,
Correction: rewritting history or predicting history.
Chuck Norris
The US never took on The Soviet Union.
It took on Grenada, Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Korea….Man! These countries are heavyweights.
Kim’s Uncle
Those were limited wars fought for limited goals! No need to go to war when one’s adversary collapsed out of its own stupidity! It is better to defeat an enemy without firing a shot than to actually go to war and risk the prospect of death! I think a little kid can come to that conclusion so I think you’re younger than a little kid?
Pa Pa
@Kim's Uncle,
So far this is one of your post with a little point. However, brining up other bloggers' age does not make any sense here. Keep improving, young man. Pa Pa is watching.
GoodbyeJapan
@Kim's Uncle,
Wonderful job. Your comment totally fits for Japan. Wish Japan understand and take it.
ACT
@denk
what do you think the north koreans and the Chinese did in the korean war? i listened to the accounts found in the video……..and found nothing new. Never forget that these kinds of attrocities are part and parcel of war. When the Red Army reached Berlin in 1945, its commanders declared Berlin an open city; female soldiers of the Red Army helped their male counterparts rape German women, among other things. But the reality is that there are few nations outside of the United States that would allow books like "kill them all: the real story of the Vietnam War" to be published. I have no doubts that similar things happened when China invaded Vietnam in 1979; Russia lured Georgia into invading South Ossetia in 2008, then invaded Georgia and proceeded to aid Ossetian separatists in the deliberate genocide (public executions) of ethnic georgians in the region…starting with the teenagers, as they would be the first to fight against Russian aggression; Georgia started the war to defend itself against Ossetian raids on its villages……and Russia then invaded Georgia and continued indiscriminate destruction even after a cease-fire was reached. See the report below.
http://www.crimesofwar.org/commentary/eu-report-targets-both-sides-in-georgia-russia-conflict/
My point is, denk, that war-crimes of the nature that you try to spear the U.S with are not unique to it; all nations do this when thier wars are fueled by ideological and ethnic misunderstandings.
oh, and then there's China's invasion of Vietnam, which started because:
"On 25 December 1978, Vietnam launched an incursion into Cambodia, quickly defeating the Khmer Rouge and pushing its remnant forces into Thailand. Vietnam did this under considerable provocation, as the Pol Pot regime was extremely hostile to Vietnam, carried out a major ethnic cleansing of Vietnamese within Cambodia, and mounted a series of cross-border attacks that cost many Vietnamese lives. Vietnam’s incursion was therefore based on, and a response to, serious Cambodian provocations" (http://www.globalresearch.ca/aggression-rights-and-wrongs-vietnam-in-cambodia-the-united-states-in-iraq/9863)
"…the Chinese in all essence, implemented a "scorched-earth policy" as they retreated back to China, causing extensive damage to the Vietnamese countryside and infrastructure.
Villages were reduced to rubble, roads and railroads received damage at the hands of the Chinese." (SinoVietnameseWar.com)
a_canadian_observer
And the chinese are very proud of their barnbaric deeds, although they would never have the courage to document them.
denk
act
*My point is, denk, that war-crimes of the nature that you try to spear the U.S with are not unique to it*
1] which country has committed more than 500 aggressions since its birth ?
2] which country has plotted handreds of coups on foreign countries since wwii ?
3] which country has committed documented war crimes in hundres of countries ?
u've chosen to ignore my questions so i'd answer for u
1] only the usa
2] only the usa
3] only the usa
for proof refer to my previous postings
yet u still insist its nothing unique to the usa
may be u should check the meaning of unique ?
for comparison to china, u keep citing vn
r u saying that 1 = 500 ?
i address ur posts coz u r the more thoughtful one amongst the pro-west commentators
but u r not bringing credit to urself
Bill Rich
So you have never studied history of China.
denk
a_canadian_observer
*And the chinese are very proud of their barnbaric deeds, although they would never have the courage to document them*
perhaps they have nothing *barnbaric* to document in the first place. ?
pro-west posters like to gloat that usa is very *courageous* [sic] to document its own barbaric acts
so a serial rapist who recorded his crimes in facebook is something to be proud of eh ?
a_canadian_observer
@denk: The West is not perfect, but everything done has been documented, while china has no gut to even admit anything, let alone document.
denk
a_canadian_observer
*@denk: The West is not perfect,*
not perfect ?
in view of the existing evidences
that should count as the understatement of the century !
* but everything done has been documented,*
so u really think that a serial ciminal who publicise every crime he committed since birth is someone to be admired ?
* while china has no gut to even admit anything, let alone document.*
perhaps they have nothing to document in the first place ?
*And the chinese are very proud of their barnbaric deeds*
can u prove it ?
Errol
@ denk,
I was gonna keep quiet but this part jumped out at me. :
* while china has no gut to even admit anything, let alone document.*
perhaps they have nothing to document in the first place ?
As you so aptly pointed out, would a criminal be honest enough to own up to his crimes? Why not talk to the victims, in this case, the Vietnamese? They know first-hand what it was like to fight the PLA on Vietnamese soil.
a_canadian_observer
@denk: Just ask any Tibetan, Uyghuir and you get your answer, or as Errol said, you can also ask any Vietnamese about their account withe the PLA. Or perhaps you don't even have a shred of decency/honest to realize your chinese problem?
denk
errol n canuck
my reply was censored
denk
act
looks like my reply 2u was censored
i swear 2u, nuthin offensive !
lets c if they censor this one ?
denk
•Kim’s Uncle
*During the Korean War: the allies described the Communist troops (DPRK, Red China) as having the faces of men but minds of demons! I think that still holds for Commies in China today. But today it is Red Commies have the greed of selfish unscrupolous capitalists but cold hearted heart of a Nazi! *
+The Pentagon always claims that our "enemies have no respect for human life" but the facts point to just the opposite being the truth+
http://space4peace.blogspot.sg/2013/02/kill-them-all.html
most of ur posts are unadulterated b.s.
why waste ur time here,
pentagon can use talents like u