1. Beijing’s nightmare scenario. China might well win a war against Japan, but defeat would also be a very real possibility. As China closes the book on its “century of humiliation” and looks ahead to prouder times, the prospect of a new, avoidable humiliation at the hands of its most bitter enemy is enough to persuade Beijing to do everything it can to prevent that outcome (the surest way being not to have a war at all). Certainly, China’s new leader, Xi Jinping, does not want to go down in history as the man who led China into a disastrous conflict with the Japanese. In that scenario, Xi would be doomed politically, and, as China’s angry nationalism turned inward, the Communist Party probably wouldn’t survive either.
2. Economic interdependence. Win or lose, a Sino-Japanese war would be disastrous for both participants. The flagging economy that Abe is trying to breathe life into with a $117 billion stimulus package would take a battering as the lucrative China market was closed off to Japanese business. China would suffer, too, as Japanese companies pulled out of a now-hostile market, depriving up to 5 million Chinese workers of their jobs, even as Xi Jinping looks to double per capita income by 2020. Panic in the globalized economy would further depress both economies, and potentially destroy the programs of both countries’ new leaders.
3. Question marks over the PLA’s operational effectiveness.The People’s Liberation Army is rapidly modernizing, but there are concerns about how effective it would prove if pressed into combat today – not least within China’s own military hierarchy. New Central Military Commission Vice-Chairman Xu Qiliang recently told the PLA Daily that too many PLA exercises are merely for show, and that new elite units had to be formed if China wanted to protect its interests. CMC Chairman Xi Jinping has also called on the PLA to improve its readiness for “real combat.” Other weaknesses within the PLA, such as endemic corruption, would similarly undermine the leadership’s confidence in committing it to a risky war with a peer adversary.
4. Unsettled politics. China’s civil and military leaderships remain in a state of flux, with the handover initiated in November not yet complete. As the new leaders find their feet and jockey for position amongst themselves, they will want to avoid big foreign-policy distractions – war with Japan and possibly the U.S. being the biggest of them all.
5. The unknown quantity of U.S. intervention. China has its hawks, such as Dai Xu, who think that the U.S. would never intervene in an Asian conflict on behalf of Japan or any other regional ally. But this view is far too casual. U.S. involvement is a real enough possibility to give China pause, should the chances of conflict increase.
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Robert L
If leaders handled all situations with less ego. This world would be a safer more peaceful place with less laws, which in consequence make humans feel more human and free. Fighting over something clearly shows lack of desire for peace and clear selfishness and showing a big inability to recognize and admit and own up to the truth. Every situation can be solved easily and fairly and in the truth if it is desired. When leaders fail to do so it just shows leaders and governments are not there mainly for the people, they are there for themselves first and their friends. And using the psychological angle “its for the people interest” to back us down so we will shut up and not come back with the words that shows where they went wrong . Peace in this world can be obtained even with an over populated planet if most leaders would practice the map truth. You’ll ask what is map truth? It has to be explained and i cant through this form of communication. Entire countries prepare for destruction while others plan how to take advantage of it. If i ever get out of the destruction upon me il make website explaining all that i can!
Timojin
The USA "Pivot" is responsible for this mess emboldening the Japanese.
Of course the USA will rely upon it's Naval power if there is a serious flare-up.
Unfortunately for the USA and Japan, the Chinese have sufficient "Smart" Land based and mobile Sea based ASCM's and ASBM's to wipe out the USA aircraft carriers 1000 miles away before they can even get their attack aircraft into the air.
The Americans have great defensive capabilities with Anti-magnetic systems, lasers etc but they will not survive a serious and concentrated attack by hundreds of missiles, and 3rd, 4th and 5th generation strike fighters.
First hit of course will be Okinawa USA Base with a "Clean" 20kton Nuke; this prevents an attack by Japanese or Americans from there.
China is perfectly capable of denying access to the East China Sea to the USA Navy.
There will be anguish in Washington and the Pentagon and calls to nuke Beijing and Shanghai but that will not happen as the retaliation by China and possibly Russia would put the USA back unto the 18th century.
Don't believe that ICBM's carrying multi-megaton nukes can be intercepted by the patriot system…it is not infallable and many of the latest Chinese ballistic misiles have SES .. "Smart Evasion Spools" and the Chinese SCS's (super computer simulations) show a 68% accurate strike rate.
I hope Japan can desist from it's false claim to the islands that historicaly belong to China and also that the USA can resist the temptation to anything stupid again. (Remember Viet-Nam; Afghanistan, Iraq,)
If you need more information ask Bradley Manning.
Don't bother posting a reply denying the above; I will not respond.
Ny
I agrreee with you.
Nitish
Japan is having International support from USA,India,EU and China has only Pakistan, NK & lots of Chinese scrap technology
Roberto
@Nitish,
International support even from EU? Are you wonderfully prewritting history or prewritting history? Or you just don't pay attention to international news? The current Japanese Prime Minister's around the world sympathy seeking trip got cold responds from Germany, France, UK, Australia, Canada, ……………………..etc, etc. India, Vietnam and Phillipines are insiginificant in international politics. What you said is not true if not a lie.
Roberto
@Nitish,
Correction: rewritting history or predicting history.
Chuck Norris
The US never took on The Soviet Union.
It took on Grenada, Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Korea….Man! These countries are heavyweights.
Kim’s Uncle
Those were limited wars fought for limited goals! No need to go to war when one’s adversary collapsed out of its own stupidity! It is better to defeat an enemy without firing a shot than to actually go to war and risk the prospect of death! I think a little kid can come to that conclusion so I think you’re younger than a little kid?
Pa Pa
@Kim's Uncle,
So far this is one of your post with a little point. However, brining up other bloggers' age does not make any sense here. Keep improving, young man. Pa Pa is watching.
GoodbyeJapan
@Kim's Uncle,
Wonderful job. Your comment totally fits for Japan. Wish Japan understand and take it.
ACT
@denk
what do you think the north koreans and the Chinese did in the korean war? i listened to the accounts found in the video……..and found nothing new. Never forget that these kinds of attrocities are part and parcel of war. When the Red Army reached Berlin in 1945, its commanders declared Berlin an open city; female soldiers of the Red Army helped their male counterparts rape German women, among other things. But the reality is that there are few nations outside of the United States that would allow books like "kill them all: the real story of the Vietnam War" to be published. I have no doubts that similar things happened when China invaded Vietnam in 1979; Russia lured Georgia into invading South Ossetia in 2008, then invaded Georgia and proceeded to aid Ossetian separatists in the deliberate genocide (public executions) of ethnic georgians in the region…starting with the teenagers, as they would be the first to fight against Russian aggression; Georgia started the war to defend itself against Ossetian raids on its villages……and Russia then invaded Georgia and continued indiscriminate destruction even after a cease-fire was reached. See the report below.
http://www.crimesofwar.org/commentary/eu-report-targets-both-sides-in-georgia-russia-conflict/
My point is, denk, that war-crimes of the nature that you try to spear the U.S with are not unique to it; all nations do this when thier wars are fueled by ideological and ethnic misunderstandings.
oh, and then there's China's invasion of Vietnam, which started because:
"On 25 December 1978, Vietnam launched an incursion into Cambodia, quickly defeating the Khmer Rouge and pushing its remnant forces into Thailand. Vietnam did this under considerable provocation, as the Pol Pot regime was extremely hostile to Vietnam, carried out a major ethnic cleansing of Vietnamese within Cambodia, and mounted a series of cross-border attacks that cost many Vietnamese lives. Vietnam’s incursion was therefore based on, and a response to, serious Cambodian provocations" (http://www.globalresearch.ca/aggression-rights-and-wrongs-vietnam-in-cambodia-the-united-states-in-iraq/9863)
"…the Chinese in all essence, implemented a "scorched-earth policy" as they retreated back to China, causing extensive damage to the Vietnamese countryside and infrastructure.
Villages were reduced to rubble, roads and railroads received damage at the hands of the Chinese." (SinoVietnameseWar.com)
a_canadian_observer
And the chinese are very proud of their barnbaric deeds, although they would never have the courage to document them.
denk
act
*My point is, denk, that war-crimes of the nature that you try to spear the U.S with are not unique to it*
1] which country has committed more than 500 aggressions since its birth ?
2] which country has plotted handreds of coups on foreign countries since wwii ?
3] which country has committed documented war crimes in hundres of countries ?
u've chosen to ignore my questions so i'd answer for u
1] only the usa
2] only the usa
3] only the usa
for proof refer to my previous postings
yet u still insist its nothing unique to the usa
may be u should check the meaning of unique ?
for comparison to china, u keep citing vn
r u saying that 1 = 500 ?
i address ur posts coz u r the more thoughtful one amongst the pro-west commentators
but u r not bringing credit to urself
Bill Rich
So you have never studied history of China.
denk
a_canadian_observer
*And the chinese are very proud of their barnbaric deeds, although they would never have the courage to document them*
perhaps they have nothing *barnbaric* to document in the first place. ?
pro-west posters like to gloat that usa is very *courageous* [sic] to document its own barbaric acts
so a serial rapist who recorded his crimes in facebook is something to be proud of eh ?
a_canadian_observer
@denk: The West is not perfect, but everything done has been documented, while china has no gut to even admit anything, let alone document.
denk
a_canadian_observer
*@denk: The West is not perfect,*
not perfect ?
in view of the existing evidences
that should count as the understatement of the century !
* but everything done has been documented,*
so u really think that a serial ciminal who publicise every crime he committed since birth is someone to be admired ?
* while china has no gut to even admit anything, let alone document.*
perhaps they have nothing to document in the first place ?
*And the chinese are very proud of their barnbaric deeds*
can u prove it ?
Errol
@ denk,
I was gonna keep quiet but this part jumped out at me. :
* while china has no gut to even admit anything, let alone document.*
perhaps they have nothing to document in the first place ?
As you so aptly pointed out, would a criminal be honest enough to own up to his crimes? Why not talk to the victims, in this case, the Vietnamese? They know first-hand what it was like to fight the PLA on Vietnamese soil.
a_canadian_observer
@denk: Just ask any Tibetan, Uyghuir and you get your answer, or as Errol said, you can also ask any Vietnamese about their account withe the PLA. Or perhaps you don't even have a shred of decency/honest to realize your chinese problem?
denk
errol n canuck
my reply was censored
denk
act
looks like my reply 2u was censored
i swear 2u, nuthin offensive !
lets c if they censor this one ?
denk
•Kim’s Uncle
*During the Korean War: the allies described the Communist troops (DPRK, Red China) as having the faces of men but minds of demons! I think that still holds for Commies in China today. But today it is Red Commies have the greed of selfish unscrupolous capitalists but cold hearted heart of a Nazi! *
+The Pentagon always claims that our "enemies have no respect for human life" but the facts point to just the opposite being the truth+
http://space4peace.blogspot.sg/2013/02/kill-them-all.html
most of ur posts are unadulterated b.s.
why waste ur time here,
pentagon can use talents like u