North Korea's recent nuclear test presents an interesting problem for China -- with no easy solutions.
A few months ago, the eminent Chinese scholar Wang Jisi noted that China had achieved “first class power status” and “should be treated as such.” The current situation with North Korea suggests two responses: There is scarcely a more opportune moment for Beijing to step up to the plate; and be careful what you wish for.
Here is what we know about China and the current crisis with North Korea: Beijing doesn’t know what to do. Before North Korea’s nuclear test, the state-supported newspaper Global Times asserted that China should “seize initiative in NK issues” and argued, “…if North Korea insists on a third nuclear test despite attempts to dissuade it, it must pay a heavy price. The assistance it will be able to receive from China should be reduced.” After the test, the official news agency Xinhua argued that the “DPRK’s defiance was deeply rooted in its strong sense of insecurity after years of confrontation with South Korea, Japan and a militarily more superior United States.” In other words, Beijing was back to blaming everyone else for the DPRK’s actions.
Chinese foreign policy analysts are also divided over how to approach North Korea. As early as December 2010, Chinese scholar Zhu Feng referred to China’s continued support of North Korea as an example of Beijing’s “obsolete ideology” and noted that Chinese thinking on North Korea is “no longer monolithic” and, in fact, “no foreign-policy issue is more divisive.” The BBC’s roundup of Chinese scholars’ views suggests Zhu is right. Ruan Zongze, deputy director of the China Institute of International Studies, stated that China had already “made huge efforts” and “developments on the Korean Peninsula do not just depend on China.” And Fudan University scholar Shen Dingli argued that the United States “will eventually accept North Korea’s nuclear weapons.” Major-General Xu Guangyu, however, said that North Korea’s “military first politics is wrong” and UN sanctions will be unavoidable.
Another thing we know about China and North Korea is that the potential of Beijing’s leverage — the life-sustaining economic, food, and energy assistance it provides to the DPRK—is not in any way influencing North Korean decision-making. In addition to Pyongyang ignoring Beijing’s warnings over the third nuclear test, let’s not forget that late last year a $40 million investment in North Korea by one of China’s largest mining companies went belly-up when the North Koreans reportedly mastered the mining processes themselves and evicted the Chinese workers. The Chinese company is still trying to recoup some of its investment. Moreover, efforts by the Chinese to persuade Kim Jong-un to undertake more significant economic reform have apparently fallen on deaf ears. North Korea appears to be the tail that is wagging the China dog.
While we wait for Beijing’s foreign policy to coalesce, we might look to Beijing’s north for some help. Mongolian officials have regularly hosted their North Korean counterparts for national security and economic discussions. They have even acted as a third party host for delicate negotiations involving the DPRK; most recently in November 2012, Mongolia brought Japanese and North Korean negotiators together in Ulaanbaatar to discuss the long-standing problem of North Korea’s abduction of Japanese citizens. Like China, Mongolia has a long-standing relationship with the DPRK; it was the second country to grant diplomatic recognition to North Korea after the Soviet Union. It is unlikely that a simple talk with Mongolia’s personable President Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj will have an immediate impact, but at the very least backchannel lines of communication can be exploited. More insight into Kim Jong-un’s thinking and the broader political situation within North Korea is clearly needed.
Beijing has options—chief among them is adopting tougher sanctions both through the United Nations and bilaterally (such as turning off the spigot of the Daqing pipeline that supplies the DPRK with much of its oil, as Beijing did nearly a decade ago in March 2003). Whatever Beijing decides to do, however, it has likely already realized that in the world of “first-class power,” high-stakes foreign policy, you don’t get points for trying, only for succeeding.
Elizabeth C. Economy is C.V. Starr Senior Fellow and Director for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is an expert on Chinese domestic and foreign policy and U.S.-China relations and author of the award-winning book, 'The River Runs Black: The Environmental Challenge to China's Future.' She blogs at Asia Unbound, where this piece originally appeared.
Photo Credit: Flickr (Pricey)
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Jumong
powdering the NOKOR will gain peace in the region
william nowlin
Bottom line is. China doesn’t seem to get through to north koreas new leader. They give north korea money while north korea continues to threaten Chinas main trading partners. Eventually I believe that china will make north korea understand that they cannot continue to act like that in the modern world. Nor will the many nations of the worldl tolerate it.Bottom line, china would no longer have trading partners to sell their goods too. Can you imagine what a war started by north korea would do to the worlds stock markets and the different countries of the worlds economies.
约翰陈
My country China continues to fear the possibility of a unified Korea being led by a government in Seoul. PLA will continue bankrolling North Korea, even as their once-close political relationship continues to unravel.
John
China would never consider the reestablishment of manchukuo or dividing china at the Yangtze River, which occurred earlier in its history. Yet it denies a united motherland to Koreans. China is full of hypocrisy.
waheed niazi
yes
Kim’s Uncle
North Korea is very green conscious though! They are doing their part to limit carbon emmissions by not industrializing. Kinda reminds me of how Cambodia resorted to year zero! How do I know ? Just take a look at the satellite images of S. Korea versus N. Korea at night! North Korea is pitched black while S. Korea is lit up! Those damn S. Koreans , how dare they contribute to global warming!
The total darkness at night in N. Korea would lead some posters on here to conclude that is a sign of North Korea powerful military capabilities! I think such posters might have a point, the DPRK would be the most powerful military in the 13th Century!
John cChan
Why should NK’s nuclear weapon and ICBM development be a China’s problem? Around China there are many nuclear armed nations, such as India, Pakistan, Russia, Japan, SK and USA, while NK is the less harmful one. China has been co-existing with those nuclear armed neighbours for decades, China should have no problem to co-exist peacefully with a nuclear armed NK. On the hand USA and Japan are very hostile to NK for no reasons, they make NK’s nuclear missiles a new added security threat to both of them by themselves, therefore NK’s nuclear missiles is Washington and Tokyo’s problem not Beijing’s problem.
USA and Japan desperately need China’s help to resolve their new threat, yet the author makes it appear that China should volunteer the effort in order to earn an empty title that China does not seek and a pat on the shoulder by the USA. The hubris and hypocrisy displayed by the author is astounding, perhaps she is just showing off American Exceptionalism that it is an honour the USA let you to lick its boots; the author should know only American lackeys like Japan, the Philippines, etc. enjoy such honour, but if USA wants China to help, USA should get off its high horse, be honest and be cooperative.
Free Thinker
America doesn't want China's "help". They just want China to stop funding and defending (in the UN) a hideous totalitarian hellhole that's destabilising the region with nuclear confrontation.
Hostile for no reason? NK regularly threatens to obliterate their nations, sets off rockets and nukes, and commits military/terrorist attacks like shelling the South Koreans and sinking their ships.
Even China is pretty sick of North Korea, propaganda notwithstanding. They only support NK because they're terrified of a strong unified Korea on their border, which would naturally align with the riches and freedom of Western free market democracy, as opposed to the crushing totalitarian poverty of Communisn.