While spending billions of dollars on defense equipment, India's military faces a number of challenges in its quest to enter the 21st century.
The old saying that a developing country is at a crossroads, whether it’s India or Indonesia, is especially tempting when it comes to India’s armed forces. Decades of underinvestment, corruption, bureaucratic ineptitude and hazy strategic thinking have left the country with a decidedly mixed bag of military capabilities.
On one hand it is strengthening its strategic arsenal, with a triad of nuclear options preparing to come online and well-documented successes in ballistic and cruise missiles (the latter with some serious assistance from Russia). It also has a healthy appetite: despite recent budget cuts across the federal government, my IHS Jane’s colleague Craig Caffrey predicts that defense spending will reach USD 64.5 billion by 2020, with annual spending on equipment alone expected to reach USD 17.4 billion.
On the other hand, India has a world of problems: it has obsolete artillery and air defense systems; a rigid attitude to military doctrine and interservice cooperation; a navy whose only aircraft carrier is creaking towards retirement after more than five decades in British and Indian service; and two neighbors – China and Pakistan – which seem to have a much better record of getting a better return on their defense investments.
With all this in mind, the recent Aero India 2013 airshow in Bangalore was a great chance to assess whether, from a military standpoint, India was going in the right direction or continued to suffer from the same issues.
First up, the good news for India: the Indian Air Force (IAF) is one part of the military that is buying its way into being a capable, 21st century force. While local journalists told me that the big story was whether Russia was losing its edge as India’s preeminent military supplier, the other side of the coin is how New Delhi’s diversifying its supply chain to get the best from an increasingly competitive global defense market.
A case in point is the selection of France’s Dassault Rafale for the Medium Multi-Role Aircraft (MMRCA) contest, a multi-billion dollar deal that France won at the expense of the Eurofighter Typhoon (aircraft from the U.S., Sweden and Russia were also in the running but didn’t make the shortlist). Aviation enthusiasts will continue to disagree which aircraft is better, but what’s undeniable is this: the Rafale has more weapons certified for use and has a latest-generation fire control radar that is actually in production.
France has provided fast jets to India before, so this in itself is not a revolutionary change. Russia is also not out of the fast jet game: India recently agreed to take an option on its Sukhoi Su-30MKI that will eventually see the IAF with 272 of the 4.5-gen fighter – ample to defend Indian air space against any threats from noisy neighbors.
Delhi is also preparing to sign a full design contract with Russia for Sukhoi’s T-50 PAK-FA fifth-gen fighter – Indian sources reckon that at least 300 will enter service with the IAF. Throw in upgraded Mirage 2000s, SEPECAT Jaguars, MiG-29s (both land and carrier based) and a few hundred of the indigenously developed Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) and it’s clear that the pointy end of India’s military aviation should be pretty sharp for quite some time.
Photo Credit: Wikicommons
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Free Thinker
A strong India can only be a good thing.
Our Chinese friends protestations of "Peaceful rise…" tend to come with an omninous "…so long as China can annex what ever land and resources it feels like!" leads me to think that strong India, Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Australia, and of course US presence, can only be a good thing for the region.
Siddharth
Why do we need the American presence in every corner of the world?
USA is not the boss of the world! We do not need Americans. We are capable of looking after ourselves.
Free toilet access
A "good thing" for India would be having the ability to cater to the sanitary needs of the masses. Remember, people were hollering in Tahrir Square becuz in the big Egyptian cities 70 people on average share one single toilet. You don't want the people of Nagaland to realise what they could achieve with some non-stop hollering in New Delhi. Toilet Spring.
Aidian Holder
Wait a second, here's what the world food program says about India:
And they're going on an airpower spending spree?
Thank you India, you make the U.S. look a little less crazy.
Girish
India is only spending 2% of its GDP on its defenece (including all the weapon development and purchase) which is pretty healthy statistics.
As far as malnourished childern are concern, they are so becasue of lack of proper implementation of policies and rampant corruption. That is not because of lack of fund for such welfare programs.
If we spend 1 percent in defance and allocate the free amount on welfare then that is not going to improve the health of those children.
We are working in improving efficienty of our welfare programs and removing corruption and that will come with time specally if you are a billion+ people nations.
Please put a thought before mixing issues.
sanjay
@aidian holder
lets not get too judgemental about what india is spending on its def deals and the quantum of population below poverty line. need you to know that these kind of decisions are thrust upon a nation keeping in mind emanating threats from its immediate periphery. with china trying to encircle india and keeping isues such as boundry resoulution alive, not to mention its fast track mil modernisation do we have an option. minimum required deterrence is what india looks for.
Kanes
Absolutely. However, it still makes military sense. These weapons systems are mostly aimed at keeping the locals happy and controlled than for any power projection overseas. The correct example is not USA but the Soviet Union that spent its way to extinction. All P5 + Germany have very strong local military manufacturing industries capable of exporting home grown weapons systems. India is certainly not close to any of them.
Indian
Mr Aidian,
50 Million Americans do not have heathcare coverage, and yet US spends 600 billion on defence, and also provides aid to lot of countries, would it be prudent for US cover their citizens with health care rather than spending on defence, it is the same logic applies to India when it comes to poverty.
Kanes
All these imported and local weapons platforms will not be compatible in servicing them, spare parts, maintenence, training locals to manage them (though they are interoperable). This will be an additional cost. Looks like India is buying weapons from all in P5 (except China) to win them over for India's chance to get into UN Security Council permanant membership.
If India allows independence to its states like Yugoslavia, these multiple nations will be of real use for USA as they will not be able to be in the middle. USA must work towards creating seperate nations within India.
Be Way
1. If India allied itself with Western Imperialist, it will lose its own soul as Western total domination of the world, has no role for India to play.
2. If India stayed neutral, the execrable force of the Western Imperialist will never leave India alone in peace.
3. If India allied itself with Russia-China, it will play a defining role in pushing for a multi-polar world where the predatory Western Imperialist hunger for world domination and supremacy, will effectively be curtailed.
Kanes
Agree with #1 and #2 not on the basis of imperialism, etc. but on the way the world works. A large number of nations in place of India (just like the aftermath of Yugoslavia or the Soviet Union) is highly beneficial to USA as the bargaining power of those nations will be small and fragmented. They will not oppose any US move or respnsibility. For instance US demands for India to play a larger role in Afghanistan was met with total rejection. However, if there were many nations in place of India, they will compete with one another.
India joining Russia and China will not make matters any better.
Be Way
You didn't elaborate why India joining Russia and China will not make matters any better. Maybe we will like understand more so that all these obstacles or constraits can be avoided or minimised for the benefits of everyone.
Be Way
……for the benefits of those who favored their mutual cooperation.
Anjaan
@ Kanes,
Your knowledge about India suggests, you are educated in a Pakistani madrasa …… !
Kim’s Uncle
India would be a natural ally of the US and other Asian democracies and Pacific democracies. The US and India share similar values and democratic form of government. It would be naive to think China would be an ally of india. China doesn’t even respect it’s own people so what makes you guys think they respect other people outside its country. I think most educated leaders already know this. The ties between the US n India is stronger. Where do Indian students like to go to study but the US? US is a source of technology and trade. What can China offer? China has no natural allies because china is just a super sized North Korea with a belligerent n paranoid foreign policy. As long as china is still a crude dictatorship no country in Asia will feel comfortable.
Anjaan
@ Kim's Uncle,
The US, for the past five decades, only paid lip service to Democratic values, sanctioned India for over three decades for its nuclear tests in 1974, while looking the other way when Pakistan's Dr AQ Khan stole the nuke secrets from the Dutch Lab, caught red handed, let go by the CIA, during the Reagan administration. Even the subsequent scandal of Dr AQ Khan's nuke Walmart was swept under the rug, which would not be possible without American support.
Girish
India being nutural is completely miss understood. We might be poor (as on date) but it is about to become top 3 most powerful nations (economically, technologically) in next 30 years. Then the questions will be who is in India's camp.
I think India is only preparing the groundwork. We do not need to be in someone else camp, beat US or Russia.
that is the reason no one see India as a threat and infact want to work with India. This is a good strategy for India in todays world when India is a fast growing nation and US and West are on the decline.
Russia needs India as Russia is greater fear from China today and not from USA. Russia do not sell its latest tech to China, not to forget defenence industry is important for Russian economy and thus they have to sell to the Chinese but then they also know how chinese steal their tech.
On the other hand, India Russia relationship is fast converting into partners with co-development rather then buyer and seller.
It is wise for india to continue colloborate with Russia and West at the same time and get everything from them what it takes to become a superpower in next 30 years.
India is not a threat for the west and Russia and that is the baseline for its growing relationship with all the power centers in this World.
Also bottomline is India will be come a powercenter in itself in coming time but it will not be like of China (which has established itself as a threat for everyone and thus facing or about to face heat as well).
Matt
Why on Earth does India trust Russia for their major weapons when Russia is arming China and cooperating with them against Japan and the US? Does India not realize they will be next? The US should drop Pakistan as an ally and demand India get its act together. The West needs India and India needs the West even if both are too stupid to let the past go. The new Cold War btw. the US and China will force India to choose… what will they do with a bunch of weapons they can't get parts for? Russia is going to side with China. Russian bombers just buzzed Guam and Japan. When will the axis start picking on India???
Anjaan
@ Matt,
The problem is, the Americans have even worse reputation, when it comes to refusing spares to India, for its weapon systems, purchased from a third country …… !! ……. Russia, on the other hand, never let India down at the time of crisis.
And secondly, the US would never drop Pakistan, the blue eyed boy of the British since the pre-independence era, the major non-NATO ally of the Anglo-American powers, the lynch pin of their Eurasia strategy.
Bankotsu
"Oh, have no illusions about it. India is in Imperial Washington's cross-hairs…"
No one doubts that. The ambition of the U.S is a unipolar world after all.
Major Lowen Gil Marquez, Philippine Army
The way it looks, the Indian Armed Forces were now flexing its muscle capability in heavy weights competion on military stratagem with its noisy neighbor, this modernization and upgrading its arsenal to the 21st century shows only that India has all the capability to defend itself from the invasion of the chinese communist someday the philippines will have its upgrade on military arsenal so that we can defend physically our scarborough shoal and spratley island at the WESTERN PHILIPPINE SEA by would be an invaders specially the communist coming from the west of the philippine territory…
Be Way
@Major,
Give us in ASEAN a break from your ridiculous unilateral decision to rename South China Sea to Western Philippines Sea. We don't need Philippines, a country that doesn't exist even before 1521 to speak for all of us in ASEAN. When is the last time you claimed scarborough shoal as belonging to Philippines. On what ground Spratly Islands belongs to Philippines when it's not even within Philippines EEZ radius. Yes, you and your Vietnamese mafia-in-arm can continue to fight every eternal enemy whether they are Chinese, Spanish, French, Americans and Japanese, but remember not to feel sorry if all of you are massacred again. Life is cheap in Philippines and Vietnam when all those lesser men who earned a little position tend to think arrogantly thru their butts instead of using their rational brain.
Anjaan
@ Be way,
The Vietnamese are the bravest and greates fighters and patriots on earth …… ask the Americans ….. and your memory is too short … remember the bloody nose the Chinese got from them not too long ago …. ? ……… do not under estimate the strength in others …… size and population alone does not ensure greatness ……
Be Way
@Anjaan,
The Mongolians led by Genghis Khan were once brave and ferocious warriors too. Can they fight another battle now?
If you want to refer to the Vietnam War, I can safely conclude that it's America that lost the war and not the Vietnamese that won. If the Vietnamese were not helped by the Soviet and China then, they will have been annihilated by the French and America war machines a long time ago. A good war is won both on battleground as well as on negotiation table. The Vietnamese may or may not fear death in the battlefield but then they definitely don't have the talent to understand that winning a war don't mean subjecting their people to eternal sacrifice. In the history of South East Asia countries, only Vietnam and Philippines throughout history, are the only two countries where their people are born unlucky to be massacred by every occuping invaders whether they were Chinese, French, Americans, Spanish or Japanese. Instead of using their brain to navigate for peaceful settlement, they arrogantly thought that their fists were bigger than the opponents.
Vietnamese Not So Great
Absolutely correct, Be Way. The Vietnamese almost threw in the towel and surrendered after the massive bombings by US B-24s. They were in fact ready to give in at the Paris Meeting.
The India Factor
Oh, have no illusions about it. India is in Imperial Washington's cross-hairs : Either it is with Washington or it is against it. And India with 1.2 billion people compared with US's 300+ million are, unlikely to "kow-tow" before Imperial Washington and Caesar Barrack Hussein Obama. As India rises too, US declines relatively. And India can only rise if it maintains good relations with Beijing and is allowed to trade with it. So, no rocket science how this geopolitic will play out here. Most likely, New Delhi will try to be neutral or non aligned as it likes to describe its position. Which means it will grow at a slow pace to the satisfaction of Imperial Washington.
Anjaan
Your observation makes sense …….. however (1) why do you think the Americans can control India's growth, when thay have no control on China's. and (2) Why do you think India's growth depends on trade with China, when China's growth came from, and depends on doing business with the US and Europe …… ?
Trade With China : A Good Business Deal
@Anjaan : Simple economics, my friend – Comparative advantage. Chinese companies makes goods at very low costs. Partly due to efficiency, and partly due to low margins initially to secur markets. Thus, you can get just about any product at whatever level of quality – depending on your budget – at a lower price than anywhere in the world. Aspiring entrepreneurs all over the world are buying from China and selling them locally, and getting rich in the process. Meantime, on government to government basis, Beijing's quid pro quo in building infrastructure for the host countries while buying their natural resources at market prices is a win-win situation for the capital scarce developing countries for example. India thus, is in a position to blossom economially if and when it realizes it has much to gain economically by trading with China in a big way. You basically get three for one when you trade with China. But it is, India's decision.
bangsarster
One would rather be happier being a coolie of the American than any other so called friends. Deep inside I know it, you know it and all India know it. That is why Indians would do anything for a chance to go the USA.
Anjaan
Try to understand the issue here ……. Indians seeking US visa , does not mean the US is a friend of India …. just like the Britain ……
Bankotsu
The rise of India as a Great Power
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/07/india_and_the_balance_of_power.html
I welcome the rise of India, as long as India is not hostile to China or take part in schemes to contain China, there is nothing to be feared from India.
I support the naval rise of India and hope that India aircraft carriers can enter the mediterranean to link up with their Russian allies.
Observer
India gotta put its money where its mouth is. Forget the endless buying of all those top priced western equipment and instead concentrate on the FGFA project. The FGFA is very important if only to escape the tight embrace of Brussels.
Anjaan
To put it simply, Indians know that although China is India's enemy # 1 for the past five decades, with bogus claims on Indian terrotory ( bogus because these claims are based on Chinese history of past 500 years, and will not stand a chance in International Court of Justice), ….. the Americans are not friends either ………. and both the Americans and the Chinese know that India can be the deciding factor in any future conflicts between China and the US …..
Jean-Paul
@ Anjaan
Please Anjaan at least be realistic and practical, do not let your pride get in the way of things!! Even if America is not your friend, at least consider becoming friends in the future, not only for India's sake but also for Asia's sake as well.
France has been showing India that it is a close ally for decades, we have sold you guys all sorts of jet fighters and military equipment for a great cost, and we look forward to doing more business with your country in the future. The least you guys should do is immediately reset your relations with Russia. They are not a real friend, please realize that they will sell you guys down the drain and side with China as soon as it is convenient for them.
France, America, and the entire EU will be with India if they make the right choices. Japan is already showing India that it is a friend and will be a steadfast ally against your #1 enemy, the greedy Chinese. We are all in this together, the EU, America, Japan and India can truly lead this world into prosperity, all we need is India to wake up from its delusions………..
Be Way
@Jean,
"France, America, and the entire EU will be with India if they make the right choices"
So it's Western Imperialist or India that need to make the right choice. We in ASEAN, prefer that the Western Imperialist is making a right choice if they can just leave us, Asians, out of being their playing ground. The warmongering West will never feel contented unless they see Asia on fire, burning to the ground. Except for fascist Japan, Asia in generally is moving in the right direction by gradually distancing themselves from Western Imperialist axis.
For centuries before the arrival of Western Imperialists, Asia nations enjoyed close excellent relationship amongst each other, with India and China (and even Arabs) being the premier pioneers in playing an important roles in fostering and broadening thriving trades, cultural exchange, religion harmony and many others within the family of Asians..
To our Indian friend, please be careful of the sweet talk from Western Imperialists namely the Anglo-Franco-Japanese allies of hungry predators.
Anjaan
@ Jean-Paul,
Imagine a world were Russia does not produce the top notch weapon systems any more ………… !!
We have already had a glimpse of how dangerous a uni polar world, with unilateral actions against sovereign states could be. I hope you would realize, that the world would be much safer when it is multi polar ……..
bangsarster
Mr Anjaan,"Americans are not friends of India"! really?? Is that why thousand upon thousands of Indians would kill each other to get an American visa???
Sir, speak for yourself when you say America is not India's friend. Foolish policies like the non align movements have really destroyed India for the past few decades. India must declare and be proud to be in the American camp. You must be one of the follwers of Nehru and his idiotic policies.
Anjaan
@ bangsarstar ( the Paki ),
No one can deny the economic success of the US, and the prosperity it has brought for its people. Therefor it wis only natural that people seeking better living conditions would like to move to the US … Indians are no exception ….. however this in an entirely different issue …. the issue is of the Americans being too powerful …….. and abusing their power with impunity, all across the world ………
Anjaan
Quote – " Still, it is not clear that corruption has more of a negative effect on India’s military capabilities than its tangle of bureaucratic inefficiency and institutional petrifaction." unquote.
- The analysis started with the list of acquisitions that were made …. ended with speculation on bureaucracy and corruption, two factors totally unrelated to the effectiveness of the weapon systems acquired, in a battlefield conditions …… shows total lack of clarity in thinking of the author.
gallan
No doubt referring to India lack of inhouse military manufacturing and design ability.
neutral
I don't think that bureaucratic inefficiency can be simply ignored, a military that is stifled by a big bureaucratic will not be strong, regardless how many fancy new weapons it buys.