There are many reasons why China and Japan won't go to war. Now is the time to explore how to actively prevent it.
The ongoing crisis over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands may be bringing Asia to the cusp of war. Trefor Moss recently wrote that a Japan-China war over these disputed islands is very unlikely. That could be right. Or it could be wrong. But even a very small chance of a Sino-Japanese war breaking out in 2013 is enough reason to work to try to prevent it.
What follows is a six-point plan to seek to deescalate the dispute in the short term. It is no doubt flawed and incomplete, but international diplomacy is never perfect, nor does it have to be. However imperfect a resolution to this dispute may be, it is almost certainly preferable to war for all parties involved.
The following recommendations are directed at Chinese and Japanese decision-makers:
1. Remember the price of war.
Looking at a two-dimensional military map, drawing arrows and moving colored chips across it is the highest possible abstraction of war. The strategist’s viewpoint reduces lives to tokens, dehumanizes war, and gives the mistaken illusion that killing and dying is as simple as a game of chess. Always remember the costs of war when making decisions of such gravity. Transport your mind into that of the soldiers and sailors you are sending to their graves. Ask yourself, as the philosopher does, what becomes of your humanity “while half a pound of lead, sent from the distance of a hundred steps, pierces my body, and I die at twenty years of age, in inexpressible torments, in the midst of five or six thousand dying men…” As an unnamed source put it, “there’s some 24-year-old kid in the Japanese Coast Guard who has a family and friends. At some point he’s going to take a .50 caliber round over this.” Always bear these images in your mind before you commit lives to the horrible business of war.
2. Help your opponent save face.
In a cycle of escalating conflict, each side is tempted to force the other side to lose face, humiliate them in front of domestic and international audiences and, eventually, back down. The thing is – it hardly ever works out like that in practice. Both sides in a conflict still have politics, and intransigency or provocation (real or perceived) by an adversary usually only emboldens the hawks and their zero-sum mindset in any country. Thomas Schelling made the essential point that it may often benefit conflicting parties – who are attempting to compel changes in each other’s behavior through military pressure – to only vaguely communicate their demands in public. By shrouding their key demands in ambiguity, and communicating them privately (or even tacitly), leaders are better able to comply with demands without losing face in public. An excellent example is the resolution of the Cuban Missile Crisis,when a (then-secret) U.S.-Soviet missile swap deal had the U.S. pull missiles out of Turkey to allow the Soviets to withdraw gracefully from Cuba. In Asia, where the concept of face is particularly important, it is doubly important that Chinese and Japanese leaders not back each other into a corner by threatening one another’s political survival.
3. Respect red lines.
That means, above all, not firing the first shot. There are some fairly clear red lines: i.e.Chinese paramilitary or military forces landing on the disputed islands; Japanese planes shooting tracer bullets at their opponents; either side wounding or killing another’s serviceperson etc. All of these thresholds, once crossed, invite further destabilizing escalation. It is difficult to conceive of the two sides escalating into a major conflict without an initial provocation like this. Unless the aim of Japan or China is to launch a regional war, which is highly unlikely, then each party should be sensitive to the basic red lines of the other. Since this dangerous cat-and-mouse game is being played in the waters and airspace around and over these disputed isolated islets, it is crucial that civilian crisis managers on each side assert uncontested authority over their military subordinates’ moves. Remember that a projectile that kills accidentally does not look like an accident on the receiving end.
4. Do not miscalculate your (or their) military capabilities and fighting resolve.
Some leading research on the psychological process involved in crossing the Rubicon of war suggests that belligerents tend to be buoyed by overconfidence as war looms closer. Leaders tend to over estimate their own capabilities, and underestimate their enemy’s capabilities and resolve during dangerous crises. This is relevant to both parties in the Senkaku/Diaoyu standoff.
In this context, one should be concerned about reports that "In the event of war with China over the disputed Diaoyutai (Diaoyu or Senkaku) islands in the East China Sea, Japan's defense ministry would attempt a coordinated attack with the U.S. to sink China's first and only aircraft carrier in service…" Similarly, the Chinese People’s Daily’s dismissal of the seriousness of Japan’s capabilities and intent to fight to defend the Senkakus – based on faith in the coercive power of Chinese missiles – is also dangerously simplistic. Neither party can predict the outcome of such a war. Any comments to the contrary are propaganda at best, delusional optimism at worst.
5. Begin a strategy of graduated reciprocity in tension reduction.
At the height of the Cold War, psychologist Charles E. Osgood proposed a strategy of “graduated reciprocity in tensions reduction,” or GRIT. As Walter Clemens puts it, the initiator begins by communicating the following intention to the other side:
“We are embarking on a strategy to reduce tensions. We will make several unilateral initiatives to demonstrate our goodwill. We will give you time to respond in a positive way. If you reciprocate, we will proceed to larger concessions and compromise accords. But unless tension-reducing moves become reciprocal, we will revert to hardline [tit-for-tat].”
Interestingly, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe may have already sent such a first signal in a letter to Chinese authorities, hand-delivered by Japanese envoy and coalition partner, Natsuo Yamaguchi. This was a risky move for Tokyo to make, since it may come under fire domestically as folding early, but it was a demonstration of clear political courage to get out of a downward spiral of conflict. Tokyo, and the world, should now watch for China to reciprocate this goodwill gesture with a concession of its own. In all likelihood, Chinese leaders will be constrained in their ability to further escalate tensions on the heels of such a Japanese good faith outreach effort, since the image of China as a bullying aggressor would quickly reverberate across all of Asia.
6. Ring Ban Ki-moon.
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has not been as publicly vocal on the Senkaku/Diaoyu dispute as he has been on other issues like Syria, for example. Both China and Japan would stand to gain by inviting Ban Ki-moon’s assistance to resolve the dispute – or at the very least prevent war. They need not accept his recommendations, or even publicly acknowledge his mediation efforts. But the mere presence of a third-party genuinely interested in the prevention of war as an end in itself can be immensely beneficial by creating options which the disputants may not have heretofore considered possible.
This final proposal should not be mistaken for starry-eyed idealism in the capabilities of the world body. The UN has many flaws. But its primary purpose, and its most enduringly relevant one, as Dag Hammarskjöld made clear, was to prevent small disputes from engulfing the great powers in world war.
Daryl Morini is a Pacific Forum CSIS WSD-Handa Non-Resident Fellow. He is a PhD researcher on preventive diplomacy, Deputy Editor of e-IR, and has work experience in international institutions, including the UN. Follow him at: @DarylMorini
Photo Credit: U.S. Navy (Flickr)
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nirvana
I don't think there are that many ideologues on this site. Someone said that, nowadays, there are far more "communists" in Berkeley that in Beijing. Conversely, capitalism practice can be observed more in Foxconn factories than Ford factories. But there are many people, on both sides, thinking that stirring up nationalism is good. Good for their career and/or their business, provided that violent eruptions can be contained, in space and time. What is precarious and inconsiderate is that they firmly beleive that they have, and can keep, such control. This observation applies especially to the Chinese leaders.
Asu Peartea
The rhetoric on this website is very indicative of the conflict. A few reasonable people get shouted down by ideologues. // If China is building up its offensive and defensive missle strength on the coast, the battle could already be inevitable. One hothead fires a missle and it all begins. The balance between the reformers and the rightist-Maoist is precarious and noone can afford to look weak at this time so they might just do something. What? Whatever serves their purpose. People’s live are not a concern to the leaders of either country, but especially the Chinese leaders.
MOMOJO
Asu Peartea,
Excuse me.You talked of blood bath. So let's talk of it. We alraedy saw a lot of blood bath such as Columbine High School massacre in 1999. Recently in 2012 , Colorado Theatre shooting by a dropped out medical school Phd. James Holmes, Conneticut crazy mass shooting by an insane kid Adams Lanza, year 2013 a scaring shooting murder show by a discharged police officer Chris Dorner in southern California, ………….. so and so in the United States, just to name some famous on the top of numerous others. These blood bath all happened in a peaceful non-break up United States. How do you feel and what do you think? Tell me where you are from and let me show you your national scar, would you? Many of you guys have no respect to the author of this article by leaving unconstructive biased comments. The topic is to prevent conflict but you people just want to spead out bias and hatred. Shame on you.
Oldtimer
To mareo2
I do not doubt that you have the desire and resolve to sink the PLA navy to the bottom of the East Sea. However, I do question your capability to realize your dream.
No amount of tough talks or expert opinions can tip the outcome of an armed conflict one way or another. All it does is to give you a false sense of invincibility.
If a firefight breaks out between China and Japan, it will not be limited to local skirmish; ships against ships, planes against planes. It will quickly be escalate into a total war. When push comes to shove, China is prepared to deliver a final solution to the Japan problem, once and for all.
papa john
"final solution to the Japan problem"? Now, we see Chinese in these days are increasingly copying of Hitler's words like this oldtimer guy. Tell me with your own words, what can chinese do? one step forward then 2 steps backward, keep dancing like that.
Oldtimer
A-ha! The final solution! You know the origin of the phrase-from Hitler!
You seem to know a little bit of history! I solute you!
Indeed I borrowed the phrase from your friends, allies, good buddies, partner in crime in WWII – Nazi Germany. I hope you remember this part of the history.
SayonaraJapan
Finish your pizza, you probably need extra money for more beer or soda if you still have money in your pocket.
A seriously broke Japan and another badly broke United States are ready for war again? Japan broke since 1990's and US broke before Vietnam War finishes. You don't even know that? You guys forget how to finance a war?
Where are the money coming from? Japan by making more adult videos and US by makig more budget cut on welfare?
Wake up everyone. Finally this China-Japan conflct is just a political pornographic show run by Japan.
Sayonara to Japan. One hunderd years of luck for Japan. The luck just run out now.
Whoisdancing
Papa John,
Why don't you tell everyone what Japan and US can do?
"One step forward then 2 steps backward, keep dancing like that."? Are you talking about Japan? Actually it is Japan who has been doing that since 1990's, more than 20 years.
Let me tell you how Japan and US dance on this island conflict matter: The first clown Japan pulls the second clown United States into the very same pant Japan is wearing and the two clown try to dance around. No wonder they don't perform well and they will go nowhere.
nirvana
The "Final Solution". …
I seems I heard about this somewhere… with a German accent I think.
ACT
Japan and China are actively trying to prevent war. Meanwhile, in China….
http://freebeacon.com/beijing-war-prep/
This report, based on a report published on feb 21, notes that the PLA is moving road mobile ballistic missiles (DF-16s) into the costal bases closest to the Senkakus, aiming the missiles both at the islands themselves as well as U.S bases in Okinawa. And so the brinkmanship goes one step further.
Kim’s Uncle
@ ACT,
Why don't you try to recover Outer Manchuria? That piece of territory actually once belong to China at one time not the made claim you have over Senkaku!! People would not have a problem with it but when you make things up, people don't believe you. Also Outer Manchuria has 400,000 sq km not like little Senkaky of a few km… !! Way to be strong China!
ACT
@Kim's Uncle
huh? i noted that the PRC was actively preparing for war, and in an entirely negative way as well….and your response is to attemtp to slander me as a pro-china commentator, when all of my comments have ither ben neutral or against China?
Kim’s Uncle
@ ACT, Sorry, I thought you were someone else! Misfire! My apology to you.
Kim’s Uncle
@ ACT,
Sorry again! You’re definitely not a CCP stooge! :)
ShowTime Limited
Sir,
Please focus on the island conflict show only. Do not try to distract to something else.
This Japan run conflict show will not last long.
Japan is already bankrupted since 1990's.
7 Prime Ministers in 6 or 7 years.
11 times of mass money-printing since 1990's.
Japan stirs up this conflict because she is out of mind and out of luck.
bangsarster
On the contrary conflict between China and Japan should be encouraged by any means. Conflict is the only way to teach China the ways of civilized nations, otherwise it will behave as a spoilt child giving trouble with others. The author is cleary a delusional leftie.
CoolEyeOnJapan
Sir,
Please focus on the China-Japan island conflict. Do not try to bring up other unrelated topics here. Japan is more like a child than any other country in history. Why don't you teach Japan how to keep their Prime Minister term longer and be more stable in their politics? This island conflict show run by Japan will not last long. Japan is already bankrupted since 1990's. And there are 7 Japanese Prime Ministers in 7 years. Have you ever seen any developed country changes national leader so frequently in peaceful time? Japan shouldn't be called a country. A clown may be a more appropriate name for Japan.
BugSearchingWindshield
Japan is a bug seaching for a windshield.-John Mauldin.
This is exacly Japan's situation in terms of her economy, politics and diplomacy.
Kim’s Uncle
I wonder why red china is so silent about the loss of over 400,000 sq km in outer Manchuria? Why so timid? Why let theRussian bear push China around?
Why no pride China?
Liang1a
We call Chinese characteristics. We crush the weak and kowtow the strong.
JBond
My 'real concern' is commie China would be broken up again & this time it'd be for ever! Hubris & belligerence just help shorten your days in this world, China!
Asu Peartea
The break up of China’s Mao Dynasty (“Communists”) is the greatest fear of those in the CCP. Often the fall of a Chinese dynasty has lead to a blood bath. That explains tens of thousands of party member embezzling massive sums of money and disappearing overseas. The Chinese understand well the cycle of a nation, especially their own.
Losing this dispute, or enough face, would weaken them.
SayonaraJapan
@ JBond,
Don't waste your time on China. Your real concern should be fixing Japan's forever breaking up Nuclear Plant crisis and Japan's perpetual breaking up economy and politics.
Continuous changing of Prime Minister and unlimited mass money printing just help shorten your days in this world, Japan.
Kim’s Uncle
That is why most of china’s history china has been kow towing A LOT!! Even the weak has shown to slap china around like a rag dog!
Kim’sGrandFather
Kim's Uncle,
China has a long history and always face invasion. Japan is isolated islands and does not show up to world stage until late 19th century.
It is Japan which has been kow towing A LOT for the past almost 70 years. And history already slapped Japan around like a rag dog. Just to imitate your rap.
I bet you are a Japanese, who usually don't study history and learn from history.
Kim’sGrandFather
Your question is out of the topic here. But let me imitate you a little bit.
I also wonder why Japan has to keep changing its Prime Ministers for seven times in seven years. Would you tell everyone?
I also wonder why almost after 70 years the Worl War II, United States is still putting ball and chain bondage on Japan's neck.
I also wonder why Japan keep trying to play victim and try to rewrite history.
I also wonder why Japan keep acting like a bug searching for windshield too.
It look like you know something why don't you tell everyone here?
Liang1a
There was never any "great friendship" between the US and Japan. The US had lost more than 100,000 deaths in the Pacific region against Japanese military. Anybody who knows anything about the Americans will know that the Americans don't lightly forgive or forget. If the Americans seemed friendly to the Japanese it is only because they wanted Japan to fight China. In the current situation, the US needs Japan less and less. America is also uneasy with the rise of the Japanese right extremists. I'm sure America also remembers what the Japanese were saying in 1980's about "Japan can say no (to America)". Given this backdrop it is obvious America has no great desire to fight on Japan's side and lose its lucrative trade and investment with China. It is not surprising, therefore, that America will adopt a wait and see attitude and let China does what it wants with Japan. It is clearly all right with America if China can sink 50 Japanese destroyers and frigates. Then Japan will ask America to stay in Japan and Okinawa. And China will also not do anything against American investment in China. In the end, GM might even take over Toyota and Nissan's market share in China. Therefore, America has everything to gain and nothing to lose to see China defeat Japan over Diaoyu Islands. America loses nothing if Japan lost Diaoyu Islands. It is no skin off America's nose. So why should America care if Japan got beaten by China? American soldiers are in Japan to keep an eye on Japan and make Japanese right wing extremists never rise again and not necessarily to fight China. It is time for the Japanese to remind themselves of that and not get all confused and think America will always fight for the best interests of their "little Japanese brother".
Kangmin Zheng
@Liang1a,
Please don't use small people mentality for Americans. How low can you sink?
Kangmin Zheng
Japan is peaceful for last 70 years. Senkakus belong to Japan since 1895.
CCP should start the dispute with Russia to take back huge land at northern border with Russia. How long can CCP kept kowtow to Russia?
Sc Lai
@Kangmin Zheng,
Yes,Japan has been peaceful for the last 70 years,that is due to the balls and chain attached to her four limbs,but now it seems that the chain is getting badly rusted and the policeman is also likely to open thae padlock on fear of China's rise as well as prosperity of east Asia where all 3 former enemies can forgive and forget and move forward.And "senkaku" has been Japanese since 1895,but that was the booty of war which should have been returned together with Taiwan after the ww2,as stipulated by Podsdam Declaration!
nirvana
@SC Lai,
Where is it written in the Postdam Declaration that the Senkakus are part of territories to be handed back to China? And why didn't China (ROC), the co-signatory of this Declaration, the representative of the Chinese in the Alliance, and at the UN, ask the US to let the ROC administer them from 1945 till 1971?
sc lai
@ nirvana,
following is the extracts of Potsdam Declaration from http://www.nal.go.jp,a Japanese link:
8,the term of the Cairo Declaration shall be carried out and Japanese sovereignty shall be limited to the islands of Honshu,Hokkaido,Kyushu,Shikoku and such minor islands as WE determine.
You might argue that 'Senkaku" might be included in the "such minor island' but then Japan is not a member of the WE,You might further argue that WE means USA,eventhough that is true,but the US only let Japan administer the islands,not sovereignty,hence Japanese claim is very flimsy.So to say the least,the islands are disputed by China.
nirvana
@SC Lai,
Thank you for agreeing that Postdam Declaration did not "stipulate" anything concerning Senkakus. There are indeed the reference to the "minor islands" that the "WE" (=co-signatories) shall determine. Postdam was an ultimatum during war, so it is understandable that it left some loopholes. And I do not deny that you can INTERPRET that Senkakus are part of the loopholes. But you should also accept that Japan interpret differently (otherwise these are not loopholes).
However, after Japan capitulated, there were a series Peace conferences organized and Treaties signed, to settle in more precise terms how PEACE IS TO BE PRESERVED AFTER THE WAR. Sorry for my ignorance, but I did not find any text which "stipulates" that, for peace to be restored between the Chinese and Japanese people, the Senkakus/Diaoyu issue must be settled, especially as you believe that Japan's claim of sovereignty is "flimsy", that it has "stolen" Diaoyu.
The US did what it had to do: revert to a previous situation when conditions allow Japan and China (PRC) to normalize relationship. Japand did what it had to do: resume administration then discuss sovereingty issue with China. China did not do what it had to do: put all of its terms and conditions on the negotiation table for a Peace Treaty. Mao wanted to prolong the situation of ambiguity and conflict, to let it simmer for later generations to create conflicts. This is absolutely the TRUTH.
SC Lai
Nirvana, don’t complicate the issue by bringing in Mao and all that.Mao, like Deng, wanted to shelve the matter for future generations with greater wisdom to find a solution to it.Now it seems they were all wrong . But despite all that, it doesn’t mean Japan claim to the islands are justified. A booty of war is still a booty of war.
Taro Ishihara
@ Kangmin Zheng,
Japan is forced to be peaceful for last 70 years after US put ball and chain on Japan's 4 limbs and a leash on Japan's neck. The disputed island matter is not as simple as what you claim. Your history rewritting symdrome just shows up to the public again.
Don't try to pull Russia into Japan's broken pants. Two clowns (Japan and US) in one pair of broken pants is outrageous enough, not to mention Japan's attempt to pull Phillipines and India in too (In that situation, 4 clowns in one pants). Stop making Japan funny and silly.
How long can Japan kept kowtow to United States? I also want to ask you. Fix this national scar of Japan first before you pick on China.