A drive around farm villages in Japan often brings one face-to-face with one of the more significant consequences of depopulation—abandoned property. An increasing number of houses, and their associated land, are left unoccupied when the elder resident dies. Younger family members have moved to the cities and are unable or unwilling to return. As a result, buildings are left empty and become very difficult to maintain, with weeds and other brush rapidly growing up around the property.
Indeed, the growth of the elder population represents one of the more serious challenges associated with a low TFR and depopulation in Japan (or anywhere). The increasingly inverted structure of Japan’s population pyramid, with fewer young people than old people, means that it will be very difficult to generate the tax revenues necessary to pay for the healthcare needs of the elderly. Japan’s elder population—those over 65—is currently around 25% of the total. In rural areas, it is not uncommon to find towns in which 35% or more of the population is over 65. As the elderly population grows to its anticipated size of more than 1/3 of the total national population, the financial burden of healthcare in Japan will become erroneous, and there could very well be a shortage of labor in the healthcare industry.
Some of the more esoteric effects of population decline in rural areas are the problems it creates for local Buddhist temples. In Japan, temples are supported by a parish of local residents who pay for the upkeep of the temple and provide for the priest and his family (although many priests also have to supplement their income with other types of work). Depopulation has meant many temples have seen significant decreases in the size of their parish and, consequently, their level of income.
In some cases, income becomes insufficient to maintain a temple, forcing temples to merge. These mergers take place even as the workload of priests has increased because the primary work of Buddhist priests in Japan is to conduct rituals for the dead. A larger elderly population means more funerals and a lack of young people means fewer family members to take care of family grave sites, leaving them to the local priest to upkeep.
Satsuki Kawano, an anthropologist at the University of Guelph, has written an important book called Nature’s Embrace: Japan’s Aging Urbanites and New Death Rites that looks at how some urban (note that these issues are not limited to rural areas) Japanese are developing new approaches to caring for the dead that require little or no human involvement to perform rituals for deceased ancestors. As Kawano notes, some of those who have chosen to follow these new paths to dealing with death have done so in order to avoid asking their descendants to provide perpetual care of their ancestral spirit, which is the normal pattern among Japanese.
Kawano’s work illustrates that Japanese are innovative and will find new ways to manage life with fewer people and will create new cultural patterns to address the changes that will emerge as the population continues to decline.
Many have argued that a smaller population in Japan is a good thing, because the country is currently very crowded—indeed, many Japanese feel this way. Whether or not this is true, it is certain that Japan will face major challenges in responding to the pragmatic issues of managing and maintaining an infrastructure built by and for a much larger population, as well as issues such as shifting economic patterns and workforce composition as a result of a changing age structure of the society. The Japanese people will also be forced to create new cultural patterns that respond to the demographic and economic changes that are occurring.
Additionally, declining populations in the countries of East Asia will be of immense importance in shaping the political and economic dynamics of the region. It is worth noting that up through the end of World War II, women in Japan were awarded by the government for having many children. The reason for this was to provide sufficient numbers of soldiers to fight for the Japanese Empire.
Today, the Japanese have no desire for empire and expansion, but the fact remains that population is a variable that remains central to how Japan, and its neighbors, will interact and respond to tensions, such as the current problems surrounding disputed territory in East Asia. And how people and governments will respond to significant loss of population—emotionally, culturally, and in terms of policy—remains very unpredictable.
John W. Traphagan, Department of Religious Studies and Population Research Center, University of Texas at Austin.
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Tokyobling
@Samurai X
I was going to write almost the same comment that you did, thank you for doing it before me. I would add though, that one of the things we see happening in rural or smaller urban areas of Japan right now is that privately owned surplus buildings are being torn down to spare the owners of the tax expense. The now free land is then put on the market as sales tax in many cases (especially for business owners) is far cheaper than the inheritance tax they would be slapped with after the owner dies.
Thank you for the best comment on a slightly better than average article on a subject (Japan) that very very few foreign commentators understand).
Samurai X
This article only touches “what might happen” but not “what Japan is doing today”.
1) Why is this bear thing so important to this topic? Bears, boars and monkeys come down to villages and even bigger towns these days not because of the depopulation, but because their foods are becoming scarce. Japanese planted too much pine trees and not enough acorns or wild fruits are available in the forests. We need to trim down the wildlife population by promoting hunting business (which doesn’t exist in Japan), or give them more acorns so they don’t need to scavenge trash cans.
2) Abandoned properties are not the problems of rural areas but cities as well. Many homes built during the hyper-growth era in the 60’s and 70’s aren’t made to last long, so no one want to live or even take care of them once the occupants left for whatever the reasons. The reforming is not a widely accepted idea yet, and not the inexpensive in Japan, so many people prefer to live in the newer houses and apartments simply because it has better amenities and insulations. These old homes can catch fires and spread easily in the tight neighborhoods, so changing laws, or how to find the righteous owners, or even how to convince them to turn down with their expenses is the major concern for many municipalities.
3) Japanese universal health care system is far more robust than one in the US, or even maybe than Canada or Scandinavian countries. While the elderly in Japan need to pay 10~15% of the healthcare cost, it’s far more realistic for the government to come up with the total supports. My father (then 71) had survived a major cancer operation a few years ago. He stayed in the hospital for exactly 4 weeks, and came out only paying 59,000yen, or 650 dollars. Can this system be maintained 30 to 40 years from now? I’m not sure but it’s more realistic than what’s available in many other countries. I’m just glad that Japanese insurance and pharmaceutics companies are not as greedy.
4) To maintain the equal opportunities for rural areas, already enough findings are allocated from bigger cities. The local governments are cutting back administrative costs by combining depopulated villages and towns to the larger ones, while supporting the local industries and commerce to flourish. Google how Japanese countryside folks are tackling these issues with entertaining rest areas on highways, exotic local savories to attract foodies, or mobile hospitals and bathhouses. I’ve been to many countries but the most rural areas in Japan are far livelier and cleaner, and you can learn a lot from what Japanese are doing now, but not from assuming what might happen to Japan.
LeonO
Finally someone who has commented on the substance of the article instead of flying off on bitter diatribes and flights of fancy.
angelus512
Don't worry about John Chan. He's just a little CCP barking dog but nobody listens or cares.
Be Way
A human calling another human a dog, is a dog himself. If you can't beat him in civilised debates, you shud just quit and go away in disgrace
Kim’s Uncle
@ Be Way,
You’re so funny! Since when has comrade John Chan ever debated anyone? :). All he does is post robotic and repetitive comments over and over and over again using the same vocabulary like imperialist, fascist, war criminal, neo con, etc.!!!! LOL.
If I was a red Chinese I would be embarrassed by his antics! He makes your china look ridiculous stupid and uncultured but then again red china has no sense of self respect! I guess if you can’t respect yourself, then it is hard for others to respect red china, eh? China’s 5000 years of civilization can only produce the likes of John chan! LOL
John Chan
@Kim,
Japan is an unapologetic war criminal and an American lackey. It is a fact and nobody can deny it, anybody cannot recognize this simple fact is ridiculously stupid and uneducated.
Be Way
On Feb 3, 2013, The Diplomat also published another article about "Japan’s Demographic Disaster". Now it's repeating the same boring stuff this time (Feb 26, 2013) with a different header "How demography is changing Japan". So what is Japan population eventually decreased down to an insignificant figure.
Guillaume Lamothe
The above poster would be well advised to learn the meaning of “more than ever,” although such a mistake might be understandable, given that his name might leave one to suppose that English is a second language for him.
1) How does the dispute with the Senkakus/Diaoyu even begin to compare with, say, annexing Korea, creating a puppet state in Manchuria, and invading half of China? Oh, that’s right, it doesn’t.
2) The above poster has clearly never been to Okinawa. If he had, he would realize that the percentage of the Okinawan population desiring separation from Japan is infinitesimally small, in any case much smaller than the percentage of Tibetans or Uighurs that continue to agitate for independence from The PRC.
3) Where exactly is Abe proposing Japan “expand?” All of Japan’s territorial disputes are leftovers from the Second World War, and haven’t changed since 1945. This is not a new policy by Abe, who’s parentage should remain out of the discussion in any case, since, of course, we all agree that the sins of the father, much less of the grandfather, do not carry on to the son.
John Chan
@Guillaume Lamothe,
Are you suggesting people using ESL are not allowed to express opinion on the internet? Does it ever come across to your mind such idea is akin to ban on freedom of speech; it seems the westerners are still living in the era of imperial colonial powers; you can’t speak English you have no right.
Japanese is notorious in creating incidence then expanding the incidence into full scale wars in order to justify their aggression and atrocity against victims; their aggression at Diaoyu Islands is replaying their Fascist forebears ugly trick.
It seems you are an expert in circular argument fallacy; it seems you are using your expertise to legitimize the White aliens’ genocide against natives in Americas, because the percentage of American population desiring returning the lands to the natives is infinitesimally small. It seems you cannot recognize racial genocide in front of your face either in Ryukyu Kingdom or in Americas.
Dismissing one’s own sin casually while distorting victim’s normal action as threats is the standard practice the Western imperialists used to justify their bombing and killing the victims into total destruction; your attempt to white wash Japanese aggression can be spotted easily.
Jean-Paul
@ John Chan
You are one of those attention seekers that screams "racism, racism!!" everytime someone posts an opinion that you do not agree with. Spouting out incorrect accusations is known as slander in the western world and is not tolerated. If you want to be taken seriously then please stop slandering others with your distorted views on racism. There was nothing racist in his post at all, you are merely putting words in his mouth to serve your own propaganda agenda.
Putting the sins of the father onto the sins of the son is a sign of an uncivilized barbarian, it seems like your 5000 years of history has taught the barbaric Chinese nothing at all. In a democratic society, power is held within the number of votes you have, the American natives and Ryukyu kingdoms are a thing of the past, and nothing you can do or say will change the fact that their time as gone. It is indeed sad that the native Americans were wiped out by European colonists, but that is in the past and needs to be let go.
What is a real tragedy is the current culture genocide being conducted in Tibet by those barbaric Chinese. Maybe a democratic voting system in Tibet would give us a better assessment of its independence? Oh wait I forgot you do not even have a democracy but rather a totalitarian thug state that trys to gloss over its crimes by mentioning events that have happened generations ago.
John Chan
@Jean-Paul,
Avoiding responsibility to redress the suffering the American and Australian natives, Ryukyu people, and Africans endured in the White and Japanese’s hands is a sign of moral bankruptcy of the White and Japanese. Saying it is victims’ tough lack to suffer horribly under the White and Japanese’s barbarism is a sign of psychopath. Using their own democracy as an excuse to white wash and gloss over the White and Japanese’s crimes against humanity is hypocrisy and double think.
Are you promoting “by gone be by gone” theory to white wash the White and Japanese’s ugly past so that they can repeat the crimes committed their forebears without moral burden? You are wrong, the world is not going to let the White and Japanese escape their barbarism, war crimes and racial and culture genocides they committed against other people, no matter how much time has passed. As long as the current generation fails to redress the suffering of the victims, they are continuing the crimes started by their forebears. Citing time can erase crime is your wishful thinking and a sign of irresponsibility; their crimes will be reminded continuously whenever and wherever is possible until the day they redeem themselves. It is the rule of world justice that the White and Japanese must face; trying talk yourself out of responsibility is futile.
Jean-Paul
@ John Chan
Your racism against white people needs to stop right now, unless you want to be labeled as an intolerant red-facist which seems to be a fitting title for yourself. If The Japanese and white people need to be reminded of their crimes, then the Chinese must also constantly be reminded of their crimes as well, it is only fair.
"Chinese do not practice what they preach" is a very true saying it seems, because they are always quick to label others and find fault in others but never in themselves. At least I have the honesty to admit that the natives had been abused at one point in history, you however deny all the crimes that the barbaric chinese have committed. If the Chinese want to show they are honest and not hypocrites then they must leave the poor tibetan monks in peace and stop their cultural genocide against them. They should also be paying reparations to those poor Chinese farmers who have had their land polluted by the greedy Chinese 1% feudal lords. Look at what the barbaric chinese officials have done to a poor farmer who wanted to speak out against the pollution in China http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/9896761/Chinese-environmentalist-beaten-after-calling-on-official-to-swim-in-polluted-creek.html
The Chinese should also be labelling Mao a war criminal and the entire CCP party accessories to war crimes as well. During WW2 the cowardly CCP had let the nationalist party do most of the fighting against the Japanese so that they could seize power when the war was over. If those cowards had the bravery to stand up and fight, the amount of Chinese women raped in Nanking wouldn't be so high. In fact Chinese shouldn't be blaming the Japanese for the rape of nanking but rather the CCP for doing nothing to stop those rapes.
John Chan
@Jean-Paul,
The Westpac has been fabricating “China Threat”, “Tiananmen Square Massacre” “Currency Manipulator,” … countless bad names thru the thin air to demonize China for their insidious purposes, whatever you can fabricate is just another dirty drop in the westerners’ stinky bucket.
The Westpac is a contradiction, a two sides of the same coin, and a double think; one side they carry out democracy internally, on the other side they are the evil empires that conduct most horrible atrocities against those not their kind in a manner that has never happened in the human history; yet they insist others only see their good side and regard them as a gentleman so that they can lecture others with moral authority; in fact they are a bunch despised by the gospel, the hypocrites.
In the past the Westpac can impose their façade on the rest of the world with their superior organized violence, but nowadays they must realize that the rest of the world has risen, they will be rebutted severely if they try to lecture others without looking in the mirror (their ugly past) first.
John Chan
@Jean-Paul,
You need to watch the video in the following link; it is about an amazing story about a nation that is identical to the model of western nations and cultures. You will be the model citizen of that nation.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=TOaxAckFCuQ
zo
I normally don’t respond to nationalist trolls, but let me ask you a simple question: if national character is consistent across history, then can we assume that China is also an expansionist Empire, feudalistic and xenophobic, capable of tremendous atrocities against its own citizens? If you look to history, there is no denying that these elements existed in historical China. Could we find patterns of behavior of the Chinese state today that reflect its historical behavior? Probably.
On the other hand, look at Japan’s history. For literally thousands of years it was a relatively peaceful group of islands; basically inward-looking and uninterested in expansion (Korea expeditions non withstanding). Then, in the 1800s, it started to become an aggressively expansionist Imperial power, responsible for some of the worst atrocities in human history. If “national character” is essentially consistent across time, how then do we reconcile these two things? Looking at the long term, could it not be argued that Japan is essentially a peaceful and inward-looking state, with the Imperial period an exception rather than the rule?
HOWEVER (a big however), because “national character “and inherent “race” traits are fictional, these are absolutely ridiculous arguments to make. No serious academic would make them, and I am not making them here. My point is: we should never begin analysis with the assumption that there exists a consistent “national character” across all time, and then look for patterns of behavior from there. This simplistic method of understanding international politics that mercifully died out after World War I. It is hugely, hugely counter-productive and leads only to conflict and further retreat into the turtle shell of nationalism. Look: I don’t realistically expect to change your probably deeply-entrenched views about how the world works with this Intenet comment, but all I can do is to urge every person reading this to lease consider analyzing international relations from a more complex and less essentialistic perspective.
Apologies to the author of this good article about the tangent here.
陈晓朋
I'm convinced that John Chan is one of the '50 Cent Party'.
***
More than 540 million people currently use the Internet in China, but there are also millions of Internet-based “opinion-guiding” agents employed by the Chinese government to control and censor every single Internet forum and portal.
Secretly in the employment of the Chinese government, these censors officially are called “Internet commentators” but popularly known as the “50-Cents Party.” The nickname can be traced to October 2004 when the Hunan provincial Community Party Propaganda Department pioneered the system of paying 50 cents in Chinese yuan per posting to Internet agents hired specifically to write postings that seek to counter every piece the government dislikes.
Based on the Hunan model in 2007, then-Communist Party General Secretary Hu Jintao issued a directive in creating a massive “Internet commentator army” made up of “comrades who are ideologically resolute, skilled in Internet technology and familiar with the approach and language of the common Internet users.” The job of the agents is to “guide public opinions expressed on the Internet.”
Since then, these diligent 50-Cents Party members have proliferated by the millions at every Internet portal in China’s vast cyberspace, scanning and searching, incognito, for any “negative opinions” to counter. The postings are designs to appear as spontaneous, individual responses.
In reality, these 50-Cents Party members are under the control of Communist Party propaganda apparatus at all levels of government.
In Beijing alone, 1 in 10 residents in the capital city of 20 million are “propaganda workers,” according to the city’s vice mayor and municipal party propaganda chief Lu Wei, who spoke at a Propaganda Workers’ Conference on Jan. 17.
He disclosed that 60,000 professional “propaganda workers” are directly in the employ by the city government and more than 2 million informal collaborators work as the city’s propaganda team, most of them on university campuses and youth-oriented organizations that are most likely Internet-based.
At the conference, the Beijing propaganda chief ordered his propaganda army troops to master the Internet posting skills “in order to create positive energy” by posting Twitter-like messages exalting the Communist Party’s image and achievement, providing “opinion-guidance” on “hot topics” such as corruption, housing, and inequality.
John Chan
@陈晓朋,
This is internet, we are practicing freedom of speech here, expressing divergent opinions is the essence of freedom of speech which is one of the pillars of democracy; because people expressing opinion not to your liking, you use demonization to supress dissident’s opinion, it is behaviour of dictatorship, authoritarian and totalitarian.
You should not label others arbitrarily, it is rude and a sign of uneducated who cannot debate with reasons. If I behaved like you I could label you Chinese traitor, Japanese running dog…
Bankotsu
U.S birth rate is also declining, how is that going to affect U.S power and the U.S unipolar system?
As U.S. birth rate drops, concern for the future mounts
http://www.freep.com/article/20130213/FEATURES01/130213031/As-U-S-birth-rate-drops-concern-future-mounts
Free Thinker
America uses immigration to continue to grow. They will be the last to be affected by declining population.
A Berman
Immigration has drop precipitously over the last ten years. Mexico's economy has grown significantly, reducing incentives to immigrate to America. Furthermore, they are going through their own birth rate drop. Supposedly, net immigration from South America over the last ten years is zero. So immigration won't save America.
Chris
Anyone notice anything in this article? The absence of "need for immigration"!
Why is mass-immigration from the third world always the solution for the west but never for anyone ells?
I applaud the japanese for not resorting to this; which is evident in the fact that Tokyo is the safest city in the world.
No gangs or rape as you see in Europe/America.
lanot
How do you know there's no rape in Japan? Are you aware of the rape of nanking? It was a terrible historical event. You should google it.
In other news, I love Japan and WHAT IS THIS
WhiteGuyInJapan
"How do you know there's no rape in Japan? Are you aware of the rape of nanking? It was a terrible historical event."
(Scratches head)-Uh, contemporary Japan? Nanking was 70 years ago.
Shotokutaishi
Rape of Nanking? Did you know that it was made up in Tokyo Trial? with no proof?
John Chan
@Shotokutaishi,
You are proving Japanese unrepented war criminals beyond reasonable doubt; Japanese are amoral pirates; they will repeat their forebears’ war crimes and atrocities against humanity again. Japanese is a poisonous cancer of humanity; they must be eradicated for the good of humanity.
In according to your logic the nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki are also made up by the Japanese revisionists, atrocity deniers like Abe and Ishihara; there is no proof.
John Chan
“Today, the Japanese have no desire for empire and expansion” is utterly untrue; Japan under the leadership of ex-war criminal’s grandson is more aggressive and imperialistic than ever, it encroaches on China’s territory and is occupying an ancient independent kingdom Ryukyu. Abe’s bellicose statements in Washington make the author’s attempt to glossing over Japan’s desire for empire and expansion a mockery.
Shotokutaishi
I see Chinese people are very aggressive seeing the comments posted…love to escalate the historical issues with the Land of Rising Sun. In country with no possibility to search on history, prejudice is easily grown.
David Markle
Just a couple of points I have. One is that it seems desirable for people who have them to keep abandonded houses abandonded otherwise they could easily rent them out to an abundance of city dwellers who desire a country lifestyle. They don't rent them, thereby continuing the sence of decline and despare in the rural areas. There is a sense of being abandoned among residents who have to look at these places in their daily lives.
Second is the fact that the remaining elderly in rural areas demand and recieve a disproportionate amount of public supported services but continue as they get older to contribute less and less to the communities they live in. This contributes to a feeling of futility among younger people who would like to see their environment improved instead of contracting into a decrepid habitation occupied by ghosts. Not closing schools and facilities used primarily by younger residents would help stem the sense of decline.
Third is the fact that these rural areas are just plain depressing places to live in. The lack of social services is a factor but older people who control the atmosphere are not inclined to support services they are not interested in hence you have an abundance of gate ball courts and municipal hot baths but little that would appeal to a younger set of occupants like popular free movies and game days at public facilities.
andy
the real collapse is in white births. Japan's births declined from 3% of world total to 1% of world total over last 100 years.
But white births declined from 33% of world total to 5% of world total over the same period.
So Japan is still doing well relatively.
Chris
Rural areas are depressing?
Farmers actually get paid upwards of $1,000,000 dollars a year.
A million bucks can make quite a few people happy, don't you think?
Also, please try to keep your opinion out of the matter if you're going to treat them as fact. Calling rural areas depressing is an example of this. If someone could disagree with it (and mean it), then it's most likely an opinion.