Turkey: Abandoning the EU for the SCO?
Image Credit: Office of the President: Russian Federation

Turkey: Abandoning the EU for the SCO?

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The European Union is in a rut. Its once-vaunted economy and “ever closer” integration is facing the tough challenges of a dogged recession and anti-EU sentiment in some of its most powerful member states. It is therefore perhaps not surprising that some EU aspirants appear lukewarm about their prospects and continued desire to join the club. For Turkey, probably the most unfairly spurned EU aspirant, it makes a lot of sense to at least explore alternatives. 

After all, Turkey’s economy is booming – leaping from $614.6 billion in 2009 to $775 billion in 2011 (in current U.S. dollars) according to World Bank figures. Reflecting the country’s position at the global cross-roads, Istanbul’s Ataturk Airport international traffic more than doubled between the years 2006 and 2011. Last year alone its passenger volume increased by 20%, making it Europe’s 6th busiest airport. The country’s regional and global profile has grown since it first evinced a desire to join the EU. European leaders should only be surprised that Turkey has maintained its interest in the EU for so long.

However, even as it makes sense to decision-makers in Ankara to reconsider their relationship with the EU, it is not a strategically sound choice for Turkey to consider membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as an alternative. Already a ”dialogue partner” with the SCO, late last month, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that he had made an overture to Russian President Vladimir Putin about joining the SCO, stating “If we get into the SCO, we will say good-bye to the European Union. The Shanghai Five [former name of the SCO] is better — much more powerful.” Erdogan also noted that Turkey has more “common values” with the SCO member states.  

The issue, however, is that the SCO remains a nascent organization that is still in the process of defining itself. Absorbing new members, or figuring out the protocols for new members to be formally acceded, is merely one of the many problems the SCO faces. The Organization’s security structures, including the unfortunate-acronym RATS Center [Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure], have yet to fully flesh out their purpose in advancing regional security in a very militarily tense region. Meanwhile, China continues to dominate the SCO's economic agenda, including negotiations to establish an SCO Free Trade Area (FTA), an SCO Development Bank, and Beijing offering $10 billion in loans for member states. All of this alarms Russian strategists who see China encroaching on Moscow's Central Asian interests. Nonetheless, all of this results in a minimal concrete presence, something we found first-hand as we travelled around Central Asia over the past year, finding little tangible evidence of the Organization’s footprint on the ground.

Further complicating matters, Turkey is not the only country that has expressed an interest in becoming a full member. In fact, Pakistani and Indian officials both said their countries were interested in becoming full-fledge members at the Prime Minister’s Summit in Bishkek last December. Iran too has expressed an interest in joining the organization, although Moscow recently said this would not be possible so long as Tehran remains under UN sanctions. All three countries currently languish as “observers,“ a status that Pakistan and India have held since 2005 and one that is considered superior to the ‘dialogue partnership’ that Turkey was only accorded last June. Still, both Pakistan and India – strategically important allies for China and Russia respectively – would undoubtedly feel put out were Turkey allowed to jump the queue.

Comments
63
Leman
April 28, 2013 at 07:26

Human history is cyclical in nature and at this stage of human evolution, barring yet another renaissance, the 'geriatric EU' is in steep decline. The East on the other hand is surgin ahead by leaps and bounds. The vast majority of Turks secular and pious alike with the World's most dynamic economy and Europe's fastest growing GDP have already lost their appetite for the 'Crusader Alliance of ageing Hypocrits' of the EU. The average age in Turkey is 28.6 verus 45 in France and 47 in Germany. Soon enough the racist EU populace will be working for the Chinese, the Indians and the Turks any way. As a matter of fact the vast majority of electronic equipment, automobiles and a host of a myriad of other productes of industry are being imported into EU from Turkey. The Turks can still trade with the EU block if they choose to do so but already the country is exporting even sophisticated weapon systems to countries even in South America. The next decade is likely to herald a new era of further declin in the West corresponding to a robust economically powerful West. In other words the EU is a "has been" whose continued existence in less than a decade is in serious doubt. Therefore Turks intend not to waste more time waiting for futher social evolution of EU societies into a higher more universal understanding of Human Rights as opposed to their nauseating chauvenistic Euro-Supremacism!

Bankotsu
February 23, 2013 at 11:48

Global economic power in shifting from west to east. Why is Turkey still thinking of the west? It's time they wake up to reality.

Bill Jones
February 23, 2013 at 11:06

As the decrepit US empire collapses, moving away from it and its satraps makes sense.

What sort of moron would want to embroil their country in the bankrupt wreckage of the EU?

 

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