Did Xi Jinping Really Rebuke North Korea?
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Did Xi Jinping Really Rebuke North Korea?

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A time-honored tradition that is performed in the United States during every Korean crisis is the one where analysts gather around news cameras and speculate over whether this crisis will finally convince China that its interests are in perfect harmony with the United States’ own when it comes to the North Korean regime.

That being said, this speculation has been particularly feverish during this year’s Korean crisis owing to the fact that there are new leaders in Beijing and Pyongyang and many reports suggest they have not gotten along particularly well thus far. Sure, there have been troubling signs that Chinese thinking on North Korea maybe hasn’t changed at all—such as Chinese academics getting censured for merely suggesting that supporting North Korea is no longer in China’s national interest— but inconvenient facts like this shouldn’t be allowed to undermine the hope which serves as the foundation for so much of America’s foreign policy.

And so the stage was set for the Western media to jump on anything Xi Jinping said during his keynote address to the Boao Forum this weekend as evidence of China’s supposed change of heart on North Korea.

The line that produced headlines like “China rebukes North Korea,” and “Is China ready to abandon North Korea?” came in the middle of a long stanza when Xi said, “No one should be allowed to throw a region and even the whole world into chaos for selfish gains.” At no point in the speech was North Korea or the tensions on the Korean Peninsula even mentioned.

To be sure, the cryptic language that Chinese leaders use can be difficult to decipher. And of course Xi may have been intending to single out and rebuke North Korea with this comment.

At the same time, to interpret this comment as a clear rebuke of North Korea is unwarranted. To begin with, Chinese diplomats have traditionally handled their differences with North Korea largely behind the scenes. At least on a bilateral basis it would be highly unusual for China to publicly rebuke North Korea.

In fact, there is at least as much reason to think that Xi was actually talking about the U.S. For one thing, only the U.S. has the capabilities to destabilize the “whole world” for what China perceives as selfish gains. Additionally, while the U.S. and its allies were obviously most concerned about the rhetoric coming out of Pyongyang, it seems quite reasonable to assume Beijing was more worried about all the military hardware the U.S. was deploying in response. Not only can these same weapons be used against China, but Beijing was probably concerned that they would paint Pyongyang into a corner. Indeed, the U.S. itself eventually came to this conclusion.

Furthermore, elsewhere in the speech Xi said, “Asia should welcome non-Asian countries to play a constructive role in ensuring stability and development of the region. Likewise, the non-Asian countries should respect Asia’s diversity and its long-standing tradition of cooperation [emphasis added].” It’s safe to assume Beijing does not see the U.S. flying nuclear-capable bombers near North Korea as playing a constructive role in the region or respecting the diversity North Korea’s political system brings to the Asian region.

The importance Xi placed on respecting diversity was reiterated at other points in the speech such as when he stated, “The ocean is vast because it admits hundreds of rivers. We should respect the right of a country to independently choose its social system and development path, remove distrust and misgivings and turn the diversity of our world and difference among countries into dynamism and driving force for development.”

Moreover, the line that was reported at great length in international press stories was followed by, “With growing interaction among countries, it is inevitable that they encounter frictions here and there. What is important is that they should resolve differences through dialogue, consultation and peaceful negotiations in the larger interest of the sound growth of their relations.”

It has been the Obama administration that has (rightly) been opposed to entering into talks with North Korea until it perceives some sort of change from Pyongyang. In fact, the running assumption has been that North Korea’s actions are driven at least in part by its desire to force the U.S. to return to the negotiation table.

None of this should be construed to mean that Xi Jinping was singling out the U.S. while absolving North Korea of any responsibility for the current tensions. If anything I think that Xi’s statement was likely intended to apply to both sides of the crisis given that China’s ultimate goal is to return to the status-quo that existed before the crisis began. Then again, he may not have been speaking about the current crisis at all.

Whatever the case may be, I see little reason to believe he was singling out North Korea for rebuke.

Zachary Keck serves as assistant editor of The Diplomat.

Comments
10
Larrybudwiser
April 13, 2013 at 04:27

Perhaps the Chines are boxed in on North Korea? I doubt the fear of "millions of starving North Koreans" is realistic, contary, I would suggest they would head South. Somewhere, the Chinese may have a concern that a Unified Korea could challenge it's industrial growth and take the world stage as the planet's manufacturing hub. The Koreans (South) are effective manuafcturers will some of the highest qualities in the world. The Chinese, not so much. Combine with a new sourec of (cheap) labor, the combined North and South would define world class manufacturing. Perhaps this "problem" has been recognized not only in China but Europe and South Asia as well.

Justman
April 12, 2013 at 11:18

This is an excellent analysis.

One wonders why China is talking so vaguely, while American politicians and pundits openly calling on China to abandon North Korea. It is time for China to speak up its mind to send a clear message to Washington so that the latter erroneously interprets China's policy on North Korea.

Errol
April 12, 2013 at 01:07

Why do I get the feeling that if you fall sick, it's still the U.S. fault?

Errol
April 12, 2013 at 00:57

Wasn't the pivot in response to China's increasing aggressiveness since over a decade ago?

Bankotsu
April 11, 2013 at 16:12

"This is a funny statement, because that's exactly what China's own claims and actions in the waters to the South of China, and toward Japan's Senkaku Islands has done." 

What about the U.S. pivot?

Matt
April 10, 2013 at 22:54

Great article. I'm always surprised that so many people seem to have forgotten that China surprised us in the Korean War and it almost caused our defeat. It is in China's interest to blow smoke up our dress and make us fall for it again. I do hope our leaders aren't that stupid but really I think our leaders are that stupid. How else could we have ended up at this point after all with N. Korea and China making unbelievabe provocations while we sit back and pretend everything is normal. How many years did it take for us to call the Chinese out on their hacking? How many decades did we point our fingure and lecture the North as they ignored us and did build the bomb? You really can't blame them for taking advantage of us as we pretty much asked for it.

ImperiumVita
April 10, 2013 at 20:58

Xi said, “No one should be allowed to throw a region… into chaos for selfish gains.”

 

This is a funny statement, because that's exactly what China's own claims and actions in the waters to the South of China, and toward Japan's Senkaku Islands has done. 

Armageddonit
April 10, 2013 at 17:59

We need to cut off all foreign “aid” and funnel that money into rebuilding out nuclear arsenal. 9/11 was our thanks for helping end Colonialism and Communism, so now it’s time to let the world know that it’s very survival depends on American security.

We need enough warheads to hold the world’s powers hostage, otherwise they’re going to start playing great power games again. WWIII = Armageddon, an we should make absolutely sure that that’s what the World will get.

baby duncan
April 10, 2013 at 15:03

Brilliant analysis, Zach, and right to the point. Good to read an article that conveys a very objective view of current affairs. Zero flowery stuff and no double mirrors, thanks.

Bankotsu
April 10, 2013 at 14:16

“No one should be allowed to throw a region and even the whole world into chaos for selfish gains.”

Actually, I interpret this statement as referring to the U.S. Only the western media would say that he meant North Korea.

The ultimate opponent and obstacle of China's rise is the U.S. It's not North Korea.

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