America’s Moment of Truth on Iran
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America’s Moment of Truth on Iran

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America’s Iran policy is at a crossroads.  Washington can abandon its counterproductive insistence on Middle Eastern hegemony, negotiate a nuclear deal grounded in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and get serious about working with Tehran to broker a settlement to the Syrian conflict.  In the process, the United States would greatly improve its ability to shape important outcomes there.  Alternatively, America can continue on its present path, leading ultimately to strategic irrelevance in one of the world’s most vital regions—with negative implications for its standing in Asia as well. 

U.S. policy is at this juncture because the costs of Washington’s post-Cold War drive to dominate the Middle East have risen perilously high.  President Obama’s self-inflicted debacle over his plan to attack Syria after chemical weapons were used there in August showed that America can no longer credibly threaten the effective use of force to impose its preferences in the region.  While Obama still insists “all options are on the table” for Iran, the reality is that, if Washington is to deal efficaciously with the nuclear issue, it will be through diplomacy.      

In this context, last month’s Geneva meeting between Iran and the P5+1 brought America’s political class to a strategic and political moment of truth.  Can American elites turn away from a self-damaging quest for Middle Eastern hegemony by coming to terms with an independent regional power?  Or are they so enthralled with an increasingly surreal notion of America as hegemon that, to preserve U.S. “leadership,” they will pursue a course further eviscerating its strategic position?        

The proposal for resolving the nuclear issue that Iran’s foreign minister, Javad Zarif, presented in Geneva seeks answers to these questions.  It operationalizes the approach advocated by Hassan Rohani and other Iranian leaders for over a decade:  greater transparency on Iran’s nuclear activities in return for recognizing its rights as a sovereign NPT signatory—especially to enrich uranium under international safeguards—and removal of sanctions.  For years, the Bush and Obama administrations rejected this approach.  Now Obama must at least consider it.      

The Iranian package provides greater transparency on Tehran’s nuclear activities in two crucial respects.  First, it gives greater visibility on the conduct of Iran’s nuclear program.  Iran has reportedly offered to comply voluntarily for some months with the Additional Protocol (AP) to the NPT—which it has signed but not yet ratified and which authorizes more proactive and intrusive inspections—to encourage diplomatic progress.  Tehran would ratify the AP—thereby committing to its permanent implementation—as part of a final deal.    

Second, the package aims to validate Iran’s declarations that its enrichment infrastructure is not meant to produce weapons-grade fissile material.  Iran would stop enriching at the near-20 percent level of fissile-isotope purity needed to fuel the Tehran Research Reactor and cap enrichment at levels suitable for fueling power reactors.  Similarly, Iran is open to capping the number of centrifuges it would install—at least for some years—at its enrichment sites in Natanz and Fordo. 

Based on conversations with Iranian officials and political figures in New York in September (during Rohani and Zarif’s visit to the UN General Assembly) and in Tehran last month, it is also possible to identify items that the Iranian proposal almost certainly does not include.  Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei has reportedly given President Rohani and his diplomats flexibility in negotiating a settlement—but he has also directed that they not compromise Iran’s sovereignty.  Thus, the Islamic Republic will not acquiesce to American (and Israeli) demands to suspend enrichment, shut its enrichment site at Fordo, stop a heavy-water reactor under construction at Arak, and ship its current enriched uranium stockpile abroad

On one level, the Iranian package is crafted to resolve the nuclear issue based on the NPT, within a year.  Iran’s nuclear rights would be respected; transparency measures would reduce the proliferation risks of its enrichment activities below what Washington tolerates elsewhere.  On another level, though, the package means to test America’s willingness and capability to resolve the issue on this basis.  It tests this not just for Tehran’s edification, but also for that of other P5+1 states, especially China and Russia, and of rising powers like India and South Korea.       

America can fail the Iranian test in two ways.  First, the Obama administration—reflecting America’s political class more broadly—may prove unwilling to acknowledge Iran’s nuclear rights in a straightforward way, insisting on terms for a deal that effectively suborn these rights and violate Iranian sovereignty.

Comments
31
Rick M
November 24, 2013 at 07:14

The initial premise of this article ruined an otherwise informative and enjoyable column. The hyperbole of America’s standing in the world dependent on Iran, well, perhaps the authors will outgrow such immature pronouncements.

EM
November 11, 2013 at 06:00

"Faced with an Iranian regime, (of which Rouhani is the PR Representative) whose official government policy is “to eliminate the Jewish race from the face of the planet"……….

What a bunch of bull from a hypocritical warmonger.

Iran has the 2nd largest Jewish community in the Middle East, after Israel. They have lived in Iran as equal citizens for over 2500 years, and now-days worship freely in 10s synagogues all over Iran, over 26 of them located in Tehran. The Jews even have an elected representative in the Iranian parliament and are protected by Constitution. Just search for "Jews in Iran" on you-tube to see for yourself.

 

Islam is Blasphemy and Idolatry
November 11, 2013 at 01:49

The iranians believe it is their “Duty”
To exterminate all jews and “unbelievers”

They believe a “hidden iman” will then appear.

With such mad Blasphemers and believers in Lies
That chant “death to America”
Diplomacy is aa Farce

Its like trying to negoiate with Hitler or Bin Laden
It iss a bad Joke
Only answer is to destroy Iran militarily
There is no other way out

EM
November 10, 2013 at 01:40

"………..Thus, the Islamic Republic will not acquiesce to American (and Israeli) demands to suspend enrichment, shut its enrichment site at Fordo, stop a heavy-water reactor under construction at Arak, and ship its current enriched uranium stockpile abroad. "

The funny part is that Iran was willing to concede all of these rights back in 2003 when the nuclear talks had just started. Now, they have developed their nuclear technology past embryonic stages and thus have so many chips in this poker game that the West has no option but to sit and deal with Iran. And, if the deal is not struck now, the negotiations in the future will be even more lob-sided in Iran's favor as they further invest national resources and develop their nuclear technology, making it hard politically for the Iranian leaders to give it up.

So, with our current rising national debt, failed wars one after another, diminishing power on the world stage, and damaged credibility with friends and foes – the time is on Iran's side.  We should snatch this deal on the table before it vanishes, and mend fences with Iran. Otherwise, next time around, there may not be any options on the table. 

 

Wali
November 8, 2013 at 13:11

The extreme theological and political agenda of the governing Iranian-revolution relegious elite is underestimated in this discussion. Their expansionist theological ideology will creat havoc to the region and the world, sooner or later.

It suffice for one to examine the kind of devious and wicked interferences of Iran’s FP throughout the region in the last three decades (e.g., lebanon, Iraq, Yamen, Gulf States, Afghanistan …etc), and ask himself the basic question: is it constructive or destructive. Let alone the suffering it is causing to Iran itself; wasting its resources, militarization its economy, and suppression its people.

One can’t realy understand Iran’s policies without appreciating the controlling role and drive of this extreme and niave ideology. One need not to be fooled by the apparently reconciliatory and pragmatic gestures and tactics of Iran’s relegious leaders. It is wise to be extremely concerned with their guiding ideology and its destructive aims.

Iran and its people deserve better.

A Das
November 7, 2013 at 05:05

This article makes it sound like America is solution looking for a problem. What a nonsensical state of presumption. Fact is the world has little problems that needs American “solution”. America in fact is the “Problem”! The soonerit leaves the scene the better. With the kind of parlours finacial state they are in the sooner they reduce the number of overseas bases, the
the better for them. The writer is on the wrong road to Oz.

Keys
November 6, 2013 at 14:34

What are the US and Israel waiting for then?

 

You might want to re-evaluate the credibility of your sources of information, especially when you are in the US and have been getting your stories from Fox, CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, the New York Times, Washington Times, Wall St. Journal, and the likes.

keys
November 6, 2013 at 14:25

The US has already made it clear. And Iran's response has been equally clear. Didn't the US send three aircraft carriers to the region a while back? War with Iran is not as easy as you think.

keys
November 6, 2013 at 14:16

The powerful Jewish lobby at work, to the point where the interests of the American people must yield to the interests, or more precisely, ambitions, of Israel and its moneyed supporters in the US.

keys
November 6, 2013 at 14:07

If the US and Israel manage to obtain full consent and cooperation of Russia, China, India and other countries. I don't believe for a second that will happen.

keys
November 6, 2013 at 14:04

I concur mostly. And I have other suspicions – it might not have been a mere lack of adequate education.

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