The Philippines has finally found a face saving way to withdraw its ships from the disputed waters around the Scarborough Shoal. Now it wants China to do the same.
Citing bad weather conditions brought about by monsoon rains and tropical storm Guchol, President Benigno Aquino ordered the two remaining Filipino ships in the area, a Philippine Coast Guard patrol craft and a Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources research vessel, to pull out of the disputed waters on June 15.
Earlier, the Philippines and China ordered a repositioning of their vessels in the area in an apparent attempt to de-escalate the situation. As noted in The Diplomat, tensions began on April 8 when a Philippine frigate tried to apprehend Chinese vessels for allegedly poaching endangered marine life on waters that Manila claims to be part of its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). China then sent a flotilla of maritime surveillance vessels to prevent Philippine authorities from arresting the Chinese fishermen, prompting a tense three-month stand-off between the two sides.
Abigail Valte, Aquino’s deputy spokesperson, insists that Sunday’s pull-out was a unilateral decision made “to make sure the lives of the [Filipino] personnel would not be endangered [by the typhoon].” However, Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario told reporters that China had also agreed to withdraw all its vessels from the disputed waters, hinting that a deal had already been cut between the two sides.
On June 17, Valte told state-run DZRB radio that the Philippine government is waiting for China to honor its commitment to withdraw all its ships from the disputed waters. But while the Chinese Embassy has expressed appreciation for the Philippines’ withdrawal, it remains unclear if Beijing will also withdraw its flotilla from the shoal. After all, Manila’s withdrawal allows it to do so without losing face to its highly-nationalistic domestic constituents.
While the stand-off has given the Philippines some leverage to seek greater military aid from the United States, Washington’s ambiguity on the application of the two countries’ Mutual Defense Treaty on the context of the Scarborough Shoal stand-off, and ASEAN’s reluctance to express support, may have limited its options. The pull-out, therefore, is a necessary tactical initiative on Manila’s part.
For Beijing, on the other hand, the escalation of tensions in the Scarborough Shoal has alienated several Asian capitals, thereby weakening its soft power and aiding the United States’ “pivot” to Asia. To repair such damages, therefore, it’s also in the interests of Beijing to follow Manila’s lead.
Needless to say, the restoration of the status quo ante – that is, making the Scarborough Shoal free of government ships from both sides pending the completion of a code of conduct for South China Sea disputes – should be a win-win solution for both the Philippines and China.
The question now is whether Beijing will see it this way, or whether it will find Manila’s withdrawal an opportunity to cement its newfound control of the disputed shoal?
JJ Domingo is a Manila-based political blogger.
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nirvana
@vic
This is a very good question:"Is it worth it?". Let's do some math.
1) Until recently nobody was fighting for these rocks, because they were not worh a penny. Navigators avoided them. Those who failed, died, like the crews of the Scarborough ship of the Esat India Company in 1784. Even if we accept (A BIG IF) that the Yuan astronomer knew of the rocks in the 13th century and used them, it is unbelievable that his administration, and any that follow, would spend money developping any activity around these rocks. History proves exactly that. Then came UNCLOS-3 and the EEZ…
2) Let's assume, for the sake of argumentation, that the Philippines concedes that these rocks belong to a country X. And let assume that country X concedes that these rocks ARE NOT ISLANDS, and therefore are not entitled to an EEZ. Would that be an acceptable way out? Perhaps, provided that country X will not build a shelter for fishermen in the lagoon, which shelter will become a military outpost a few years later.
3) Why would country X build a military outpost on rocks such far away from its coast anyway? One indication is that country X is an ambitious one that has a "core interest".
4) So what is this "core interest"? By definition, it must be something invaluable. Remember, when country X was as "poor as church mice", it was already spending all it could to indigeneuously develop that "core interest". Now that "core interest" has a new launching vector, avector that country X is basing in Sanya.
Guess a figure how much it is worth? I would say a significant percentage of the 100 Trillions in military spending of country X per year. Anyway, the generals careers depend on it.
Vic
The largest military outpost in the Spratly islands is the one built and held by Taiwan (Republic of China). It has been there for 50 or more years, complete with a landing strip for airplanes. Troops are rotated every 6 months. Possession is ownership. ROC has had the dashed line map way way back. The dashed line is not something new. The only difference is that it is now been OFFICIALLY enforced by PRC.
Errol T
Whether it's PRC or ROC, no difference. The nine-dotted line is not accepted by the international community. Only PRC and ROC claim that. To disregard international rules is to open the door to chaos. The bloody kind. Other countries with predatory interests will follow. They will think that if China can get away with it, then they will too. What happens then?
Vic
I am just stating facts. Drawing lines and enforcing are two different affairs. What is involved and what does the future hold – these I am in no position to predict. There is no question that international trade will go unimpeded, The bigger question is will there be conflict between US and China. This is all that matters to the world.
As long as disputes remain as disputes and are localized, there should not be major problem. If a country, like Philippines, wants to challenge China,'s core interest., whatever that means, then it is between the two. If the US wants to be a "saling pusa" (third cat in the brawl), it must be up to her to weigh out the pros and cons.
Cyrus
The Philippines did not declare the Scarborough as part of the Philippine Map mainly because it is outside 12 Nautical Miles from our coast. It does not mean that we are not exercising de facto control of the rocks.
Now, the 9-dash lines or cow tongue was there in the past but since China did not specify what it means then the world ignored it. It might be core interest which means that China has direct interest in this waters does not neccessarily mean that you are claiming ownership of everything within that line per se.
Now since UNCLOS was signed each Archipelagic State such as the Philippines was given a 200 Mi EEZ. That means the Philippines has EXCLUSIVE JURISDICTION of the Marine Resources 200 Mi from its nearest Island. That means Luzon, because no matter how we look at it Scarborough is NOT AN ISLAND. With Scarborough just 137Mi from Luzon it falls under our EEZ hence the Jurisdiction.
This does not mean that no ship can pass through our EEZ in fact we do not stop or harrass any ship who chooses to use our EEZ for Navigation. Now, explain yourself why you should own a couple of rocks way out of your Mainland? Let's even say from Taiwan as your de jure Territory it still does not fall under it's EEZ.
Hence, you have no right to be their claiming ownership. Your ships can stay as is your right of navigation but to harvest and use the resources on that sea bed is against INTERNATIONAL LAW as it falls under the Philippines EEZ.
vic
So the contested waters cannot fall under the territory as defined in the Mutual Defense Treaty with the US. All the world concern is a China-US military conflict. As long as it is localized, i.e. between the states involved, then we can all rest easy.
I think eventually it will be a negotiated settlement. One must not push the UNCLOS to the limit, as anyone can pull out of the Convention Treaty. Furthermore, UNCLOS is not the arena for international jurisdiction. Squabble over the negotiation table with use of money, technology, and perserverance.
Using strong-arm tactics will make the area unsuitable for long-term oil or gas extraction site, simply because hostiities create too much risks for economic activities.
Errol T
Rest assured strong-arming won't be from our Navy and Coast Guard. What they would like to do is arrest Chinese fishermen for poaching and catching endangered species. No Chinese vessel has ever been stopped for the simple act of navigating those waters. Trouble arises when the various agencies of China comes into play. Differing viewpoints from Beijing and Manila. For some reason, I keep getting the image of ships pushing each other and avoiding firing any shots.
nirvana
@vic,
You reinforced my point that the fighting over these rocks is part of a military grand strategy, a strategy initiated by China (both PRC and ROC) with all the art of ambiguities re the « dotted line » that only the military knows how to do to mislead its ennemy. A strategy closely related to stealthy force, now a nuclear one.
Why are you still pretending here that there is only an economic dimension at stake in the SCS?
Of all the claimants of the islands in the SCS, only China (ROC then PRC) has a hidden military objective, one that dated years back indeed. All the others are ready to settle their disputes based on sovereingty and economic give-and-take. But China is a rogue player. It is pretending to play others gane but it is playing a different game at the table, one in which the aim is to take and not give, or to give in order to take back. One in which, at the end, the winner, China, takes all.
Vic
It makes sense for the involved countries to negotiate with PRC to arrive at agreeable terms After all, everything seems a bit vague. What's involved and what is it to resolve?
Errol T
It's kinda hard to start negotiations if China begins by stating anything within its nine-dotted line is its core interest and not open to negotiation. What happens at that point, aside from the other party walking out since there's nothing to talk about, i've no idea.
a_canadian_observer
@vic: The best solution is for all parties to bring their cases to the international cort and follow international laws to resolve the situation. No ambiguity allowed.
Errol T
Just as Manila refuses bilateral talks because the odds favors Beijing too much and will be inconclusive from the Philippine perspective at best, Beijing won't go for international arbitration. It knows it's a battle it will lose. It claims those islands, reefs, and shoals are issues of sovereignity and for Beijing, an outsider has no say in deciding who owns what. Despite having no grounds for sovereignity to begin with. Catch 22 situation.
vic
Sometimes I wonder what this bickering is all about. If the Philippines wants to arm itself to the teeth, how much will it cost? And what is the economic value of the "thing" that is being contested? Where is the cost-benefit analysis. Let's forget all those airy talks of nationalism, face, etc. We must come down to dollars and cents. Can someone please give me a figure ?
Errol T
We don't want to participate in an arms race. It doesn't bring in money except for the arms merchants. What we want is a decent, capable force that could protect our sovereignity and our interests. We only need minimum deterrence. Maximum deterrence is only used for wartime, and last I checked, the Korean War was the last time we sent soldiers. Vietname War doesn't count since we sent medical teams for that.
We won't give up what international law grants us. We have an EEZ, and a number of small islands, shoals, and reefs fall within that zone. We claim resources within that zone as ours. If it's for fishing, it would provide for Filipino families' dinner plates. If there is indeed oil or natural gas therethere, we will use them to lower our fuel costs here, and hopefully lower our electric rate (RP has the 2nd highest energy rate in Asia, right after Japan).
For China, correct me if I'm wrong, those islands and shoals are an important interest. For the Philippines, it is a very important interest. Think about it. China has other sources of income and resources. For the Philippines, we don't have as many.
vic
As I said before, when one sails from China, it is out to the South China Sea, then out to the Pacific Ocean. So it is her immediate sea. Prior to Western Nations naming this body of water as "South China Sea", it was known to the Chinese as "NanYang" or "South Sea". A fair bit of this is in the Chinese history books. Chinese traded through NanYang, and those that went for trade and settled there were known as "NanYang Chinese" and the others as "NanYang people". Chinese were in the Philippines way before the Spanish came, and the Spanish set up the Manila-Acapulco trade for the Chinese goods.
To the Chinese, "NanYang" is vital, that is why there is the concept of "core interests".
Mind you, these comments are the results of my understanding only. Of course, others have their own opinions depending on their locations.
Errol T
We acknowledge the Chinese connection in our history. We don't deny that. We also acknowledge that modern-day China has a thirst for resources that the SCS can provide. The Philippines' demand for resources is negligible compared to China's. What the RP wants is to be left alone with its own corner of the SCS. If China wants those resources, Beijing could properly negotiate with Manila. No more hanky-panky please. A lot of Filipinos were shocked with what transpired during the Arroyo administration. Physically encroaching on various rocks that falls within EEZ is not conducive to negotiations. Sure, China can grab those rocks if it really wants to. In doing so, it will build up enough resentment for Filipinos to actively hate Beijing. Not to mention tarnishing its image (if it was really important to Beijing). China could improve its image by taking the high moral ground and playing fairly. Do proper business. Offer something that's better than what its competitors can offer.
John Chan
The Philippines should consider lucky, only China will deal such difficult situation with composure. If Philippines’ opponent was Vietnam, South Korea or Japan, they all will long send in big gunboats, and special task forces to teach the Philippines a lesson in no time, such prosecuting the Philippines naval officers and crew in their local courts with their local laws, boarding the Philippines’ ship and creating injury/homicide of their officers farce, or blasting the Filipinos with their latest model of Russian built missiles boats.
Filipino defender
Sir please dont miss understand the pull out you people have not won anything! as long as you people are nothing following the international standards and rules you never win and lucky? if you think force will make you winners then go ahead try it! and your whole country is done for. lucky ha! you have some balls to call that sir! you chinese bloggers need to know the truth that you mafia style government are your real enemy not my country and please dont look down on other people like your ancestors did it may cost you someday. fare warning!
John Chan
@Filipino defender,
Which part of my comment did not respect the Filipinos? Did I mention China won or Philippines lost? Did China use force? Only the Philippines used force in the whole farce, even that China understood that the Philippines’ action might be under the bad influence of it ex-colonial master, so China responded with great restrain.
Please stop picking up the bad habits of the predatory imperialist bully, always it is somebody’s fault, never look into the mirror yourself.
Errol T
Strange. I don't know much about Vietnam but it would be odd for SoKor and Japan to do that to Filipinos. That's because 1.) SoKor and Japan do not use Russian weapon systems, and 2.) There's no way in heck that fishing rights and oil rights would be disputed with those 2 northeastern countries.
Besides, what you described is what the ordinary Chinese are pushing for, isn't it? Punish us upstart Filipinos for having the balls to claim what is ours. Our government should have followed that Roman adage. To ensure peace, prepare for war. For decades our presidents ignored our capability to defend ourselves from external aggression and focused inward. Thanks to China's encroachment, Filipinos are becoming aware that being a good but weak neighbor isn't enough. We have to have the strength to back ourselves up so that we won't be bullied by our stronger, hostile neighbors.
Observer
@ JC said "only China will deal such difficult situation with composure".
Oh really? Who attacked smaller neighbors in the South of china Sea? It was bully china. I know you would say china just took it back what was theirs. Then tell us what years and what battle those small neighbors took land/islands from china?
Funny how china and chinese like you are so yellow and cowardice about big Russia, the same one that attacked/killed chinese and then took HUGE land from china. What is the matter?
nirvana
@Errol T
Not strange at all. John Chan was expressing, with his typical twisted state propaganda logic, the feeling that the Golbal Times called "regret and anger". What he wanted to say is, If the Philippines' opponent was THE China he has been taught to love, the fate of the Philippines would be what he described.
As you have remarked, unfortunately that is what the "ordinary" Chinese public is feeling. We can say the same concerning the "ordinary" Germans in the 1930s. Our enemy is therefore the vicious state propaganda.
John Chan
@nirvana,
Philippines is the nation initiated the aggression in the Scarborough Shoal, and the Philippines is the only nation using gunboat and firing at unarmed the Chinese fishermen. Fabricating baseless narrative linking “German in the 1930s” to the Scarborough Shoal episode can only divert attention and proves you are savvy propagandist, but it cannot deny the fact that the Philippines is the aggressor.
nirvana
@John Chan
We, me and others, were just commenting on your tone showing your frustration that nothing violent happened.
Saying that there were "agressions" committed by the the Philippines military is an overstatement, when for the half day they spent with Chinese poachers, they took only pictures.
Compare that with the numerous cases of Vietnamese fishermen being beaten, drowned, shot to death, imprisonned, boats confiscated etc… Compare that with the case of the Chinese fishing boat ramming into a Japanese coast guard vessel, with the Chinese fisherman stabbing to death a South Korean officer, compare that to the rumors of war that was spread by Xinhua, to the warnings on the PLA websites, and we can conclude, without a second of hesitation, who was looking for a violent incident, who is frustrated when none happened.
Errol T
True. Our Navy went to Scarborough to arrest poachers. They didn't go thinking "We will go there and provoke China and we will stay here in the middle of the cold sea with lousy weather and all the while subsisting on cold rations instead of home-cooked meals". They even took photographs as evidence of Chinese fishermen catching endangered critters.
And if anyone asks why are we doing it only now and not before when there had been previous incursions by Chinese poachers, it's because it's only now that we have decent ships for patrolling our waters. Before the arrival of the ex-Hamilton ship, our best ship was a WW2-era vessel that I wouldn't trust my life with.
Sin Lok
We always believe in negotiating Vic and even working with the Chinese. It's just that your country is just a big bully and we don't like to be bullied who does. It seems that money works like crack in the Chinese mind they make you people believe your invincible. For the record there was no show of force in the Philippines side it was just Chinese propaganda.
Rye
@Si Lok,
If sending a warship and shots at unarmed fishermen are THE Philippines ways of negotiation, then it's nothing short of being hypocrit and then lowly to paint China as a bully. China's yet done the same to the Filipinos but rather thru bilateral diplomacy channel. Greed inflames ambition and motivation people to strive for betterment. Who doen't want an easy life? Even a poodle is salivating for a rich master!!! Mr. Deng XioPeng labeled greed is good for the Chinese when he open EZZ in the 70's. Today China prospers and still hard at work. Philippines should copy the business platform from China for enhance its economic loophole that plaques by handful of corrupted elite people who are leeching their own people into poverty instead spewing jealousy and hatred about China. You can lament Chinese any name calling in your Tagalog language to your amusement, but the real winner is who's having the last laughs.
Errol T
Au contraire. The middle class here is growing. i should know. I'm one of them. It's not that far back when my family was in the low-income bracket. Corruption can be minimized, and as long as everyone gets a fair chance of improving our collective lots in life, we're ok with corruption not being stamped to absolute zero. And I keep repeating again and again. The BRP Gregorio del Pilar is not a warship. It doesn't even have any missile racks, nor any CIWS. It's our Navy's best ship, but in essence, it's still a patrol ship. It's the best we can afford for now. When we get a missile destroyer and arrest poachers with it, then you can go ahead and complain.
Oldertimer
Will Beijing Follow Manila lead?
The answer is NO.
Why should China follow Manila’s withdraw (not lead)?
vic
Philippines must realize that it did not gain much by initiating a stand-off. Pitting a bangus (small milkfish) against a whale wasn't much of an encounter and was a really pathetic show of force by the Philippines. For the Philippines it is betterr to try its hands at the negotiating table than trying to act the role of "toughie". For China, it should divert aid normally destined for the Philippines to other areas such as Cambodia as a sign of displeasure.
Matt
The Wale is the US not China. Your logic could be used against China so easily. I hope China is not so blinded by ambition it forgets who the real wale is. The 7th fleet could swallow the PLAN whole. Not to mention they have about 10 times the ships to back them up btw. allies and other US fleets.
The Philippines has a weak Navy percisely because they understand how dominant the US Navy is. Just like Europe they save money by relying on an ally. It is much wiser to feed the people before spending on Military. As opposed to China's best ally the DPRK which literally starves its population to death to feed a military so it can launch provocations and even invasions without any reason other than pride. The West respects human rights.
John Chan
@Matt,
Please stop claiming “The West respects human rights.” The West is a serious human rights violator; China has a long list that demands the West to address its human rights violation, such as too many people locked up in prisons in the West, stop using waterboarding to torture framed terrorists, stop using contracted security firms to terrorize innocents in Iraq, Libya, etc.
Errol T
@JC, if human rights in the West is worse than China's, how come it's Chinese citizens that seek asylum in Western embassies in Beijing, and not the other way around?
Errol T
Regrettable, but it would be good in the long run. Accepting aid from China would create an obligation on our part. Another trait of Filipinos is 'utang na loob'. We know who we owe debts to, and we pay them. Right now, we wouldn't want to have any debts of gratitued to China. Besides, China and Cambodia have a closer link I think. China's money would impact Cambodians better.
vic
It's about time Philippine elite orbits out of American colonial legacy. What counts is economic improvement for the population. Playing 'palakasan' (muscle flexing) against China will get Philippines nowhere. Play the economic game, this is what counts in the long run.
The French Revolution started in 1789 and took 10 years to run its course. The Chinese Revolution started 1911 and took almost 50 years to run it course, because of much bigger historical baggage. Once China puts its house in order, it will be the biggest player of all time. It will be an economic giant.
Philippines, as a next door neighbor, stands to benefit from the economic spill-over. Shutting its eyes to this is to condemn the population to unnecessary hardships.
a_canadian_observer
@vic: "Once China puts its house in order, it will be the biggest player of all time. It will be an economic giant." The question is when can china put its house in order. The quality of a nation is based on the quality of its citizens. and based on the load of china citizen we've seen on this forum, china still has a super long way to go. As for being an economic giant, is it not true, china is already #2? The only issue is, china still opens its hands and accepts aids from the world. What is wrong here? What good has the country of 1.3 billion controbuted to the world?
Rye
@aco,
If all Canadian are self- productive like you why its economy ranks 14th instead of 1st. You asked: What good has the country of 1.3 billion contributed to the world? Plenty if you do some serious due-deligent instead of spewing bias and ranting pretext to belittle of China achievements from thin air.
Errol T
Canada has a much smaller population base, even in comparison to its next-door neighbor. And as much as Canada is a First World country, heavy industries is not its primary source of income, I think. I'm open to corrections here.
a_canadian_observer
@Rye: Canada's population is less than 35 million, i.e., china has 40 times Canada's population. You just need to google Canada's aids to china to find out.
Canada is not Utopia. We have problems too but the scale is minimal. We don't produce poisonous goods and food. We don't steal other's IPs and technologies. We provide helps to the needed nations (china included – sigh). the list can go on…
Can you name at least one good, charitable thing china has done for the world within the last 50 years?
Errol T
@a_c_o: i just read that China's been building infrastructures for some select countries. In exchange for what concessions, I have no idea.
Kimbo Y. Laurel
I do not know up to you, guys, but sometimes, the national interest is stronger than the commitment to cooperate with other countries.
Mikhail
It's about time that this tensed stand-off ended. The Philippines got hit by a storm really bad last week. In Palawan, there were ships that sunk and many people died unfortunately. Our country has a lot of more important things to do. We have so much to work on (alleviate poverty, economy, muslim insurgents etc.) that we dont have time for this kind of things with China or any other countries for that matter. Now that the standoff is over I hope that China and my country continue talking to resolve this once and for all!
Another low pressure area was spotted in SCS. It's going to go through the disputed shoal. Hope the Chinese leaves before the typhoon comes first.
Thanks btw to the United States. They are eyeing to provide us radars to watch our coastlines (we need to know every now and then what/who is in our waters. Australia's SOVFA will be ratified in our Senate soon allowing aussie troops access to our land. Japan sold us 10 patrol ships. South Korea will also help (im not sure if they will sell us some Jets). Malaysia, Burma, Vietnam, Russia and many more countries have expressed that they want this dispute to be settled peacefully.
antiwar
Looks like the Chinese are not pulling out but consolidating because they are followers of realpolitik i.e. might makes right and to the school of thought that to the victor belongs the spoils, harking back to the age of imperialism. The lopsided and unequalness of the Philippines and China means that the Philippines will just have to live with Chinese occupation of Scarborough Shoal unless Philippines develops a nuclear deterrent but the Philippines prohibits nuclear weapons.
Errol T
Possessing nuclear weapons is only a deterrent in case someone aims a nuclear weapon at you. Mutually assured destruction. As much as Beijing has taken a lot of hit for its actions, it's not crazy enough to threaten anyone with it's nuclear arsenal. No one does. Unless we're talking about North Korea… Anyways, back to China's offensive capabiltiy, God knows its conventional weapons are more than enough.