Minxin Pei is the Tom and Margot Pritzker '72 professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and a non-resident senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. His research has been published in Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, The National Interest, Modern China, China Quarterly, Journal of Democracy and many edited books and his op-eds have appeared in the Financial Times, New York Times, Washington Post, Newsweek International, and International Herald Tribune, and other major newspapers.
"China’s rise is more likely a statistical fiction, cooked up by the Chinese ruling elites to aggrandize their power and glory."
The Andropov model seems to be an attractive option to China’s leaders. It won’t be long before they realize that it is a road to nowhere.
Few have seriously thought about the probability and the various plausible scenarios of a regime transition in China -- until now.
With some arguing China is turning North Korea into a 21st-century tributary state, it can't stop its reunification with the South.
Actions by the People's Republic -- intentional or not -- have created the worst regional environment for China since Tiananmen.
Xi Jinping has taken the reins of the Communist Party. With multiple domestic and international challenges mounting, there is much to be done.
While many have feared its rise, a weaker China struggling with economic and political challenges at home may present an even greater challenge.