Earlier, I wrote about why China believes that a past consensus existed with Japan over deferring resolution of the dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. A colleague recently alerted me to a new Chinese source that further illuminates the discussion of the issue during the talks on normalizing diplomatic relations in 1972 between Kakuei Tanaka and Zhou Enlai.
The source is a recollection of the talks written by Zhang Xiangshan (张香山). Having studied in Japan before 1949, Zhang served as an advisor to Zhou Enlai on Sino-Japanese relations in the 1970s. Zhang’s recollection is a credible source, as it was published fourteen years ago in an article in a Chinese academic journal, Japanese Studies (日本学刊) – well before the current escalation of tensions.
According to Zhang Xiangshan, Tanaka and not Zhou raised the issue at the end of their third meeting in September 1972. Tanaka asked Zhou about China’s attitude was toward the islands. Zhou responded that he “did not want to discuss the issue at this time, as it would not be useful (没好处).”
Tanaka pressed further, stating that “it would create some difficulties” if he returned to Japan without mentioning the islands. Zhou replied that “because oil had been discovered in the ocean there, Taiwan had made [the islands] into a big issue, now the United States is also making them into an issue.”
Tanaka: “Okay! There’s no need to talk about it, we can discuss it later.”
Zhou: “Let’s talk discuss it later. Now we should grasp the basic issues that we can settle, such as first resolving the normalization of relations. This is the most urgent issue. Other problems should be discussed after some time has passed.”
Tanaka: “Once diplomatic relations are normalized, I believe that other problems can be resolved.”
Why does this exchange between Chinese and Japanese leaders from 1972 matter? At the moment, China and Japan have staked out irreconcilable positions over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. China wants acknowledgement of the “common ground reached between the two sides.” Japan maintains no dispute exists and thus there is nothing to discuss, including any past exchanges on the islands in the 1970s.
Yet the Tanaka-Zhou talks suggest a way out. Japan could acknowledge that the islands had been discussed and deferred without altering its claim to them. China could view such as statement as acknowledging the past “common ground.” Both sides could move on. As Doug Paal suggests, if China rejected such a Japanese statement, then the “onus shifts to China” to de-escalate the situation.
M. Taylor Fravel is an Associate Professor of Political Science and member of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He can be followed on Twitter @fravel.
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Mike China
The US defence treaty with Japan has emboldened the latter.Even a senior official has publicly stated the treaty has deterred China. He did not say if this had happened during Mao's time,it would be a cake walk.Suffice to say as China's on going military build up continues to nibble away at US military superiority,the Japs will come to their senses.
Like it or not the staus quo was decided by the US. Then China was a weak power trampled al lover by the west from the early 19th century. So as China gets stronger,the status quo so far in favour of the US and its lackeys have to takeaccount China's interest.The Chinese need only achieve local military superiority before the Japs would unwillingly nudge a little
Btw don't give the bs that China is out to dominate Asia.What about the US world wide hegemony?Sooner or later as the fiscal deficit bites,the US could become a banana republic.
Immovable object
Mike…. Your opinion here is so typical of the mainland Chinese perspective…. which is the party line in BJ….. China has been hard done by, the West and Japan did terrible things to us 60 to 160 years ago…. we only respect power….. and we aren't powerful enough yet to bully everyone to our opinion, but give us time and then we will call the shots! American military forces are in places like Korea, Japan, Germany etc, because the governments of these countries want them there…. China's biggest problem moving forward is that there isn't a single country that borders China that trusts it! And not a single one that wants to emulate it! Fighting over these meaningless islands is hurting China's national interest…..
Manatee
"because oil has been discovered in the ocean there, Taiwan had made [the islands] into a big issue, now the United States is also making them into a big issue."
I like this part because I could easily draw a conclusion without being biased…
Dave Chan
As I see it, China’s stance is that there has been a tacit agreement between China and Japan, pursuant to the Zhou-Tanaka talk, that the status quo of the islands should be maintained, i.e. Japan exercises “administrative rights” while the sovereignty issue will be resolved by future generations; there would be no landing, no surveying and no drilling. The recent “nationalization” of the islands by Japan clearly breaches such tacit agreement and intends to change the status quo over the islands. So the anger of China is understandable.
Dave Chan
Japan denies the existence of any territorial dispute with China. Japan’s current version of the Zhou-Tanaka talk is that Zhou's clear stance at the time was to “shelve” the sovereignty issue and so there would be nothing to talk about in the future. To ask Japan to acknowledge that discussion over the islands had been deferred means asking Japan to admit that its version of the Zhou-Tanaka talk is incorrect. The writer must be joking.