Following is a guest entry from James Hardy, Asia-Pacific editor of Jane's Defence Weekly.
The East China Sea has seen two more tense incidents involving Japan and China in the past couple of weeks. But is this proof that these fractious neighbours are heading towards a state of perpetual tension?
Perhaps. But maybe this is only to be expected.
The first incident, in which Japan Air Self-Defence Force F-15J fighters intercepted Chinese Y-8 surveillance planes about 30 kilometres from the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, looks like a Chinese ploy to test Japan's reflexes.
The second, in which a Chinese State Oceanic Administration helicopter flew to within 70 metres of Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force destroyer Samidare (DD-106), was the diplomatic equivalent of flipping the bird.
That it took place in the Shirakaba/Chunxiao gas field, where cooperation between the two countries has stalled since last September's incident near the Senkaku islands, suggests that friction between the two will continue to occur when and where their interests collide. Tokyo says Chinese drilling could be extracting gas from under its exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
But back on the surface, neither incident changes relations damaged by the clash last September between the Japan Coast Guard and a Chinese trawler near the Senkaku islands. China has so far refused to react publicly to Japanese condemnation of the two latest incidents, while the resignation of Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara and budgetary problems are keeping Prime Minister Naoto Kan's hands full for the moment.
Many commentators, including Shogo Suzuki writing here in November, believe that the Kan administration has dealt well with Japan's truculent neighbours, despite widespread public and media criticism. The Senkaku incident ended with US support for Japanese sovereignty over the Senkakus and China facing an international backlash for its bullying tactics.
Since then, the Kan administration has published defence guidelines for the next five years that realign Japanese forces so that they face the East China Sea and protect Tokyo's interests in this area. There's nothing weak or indecisive about establishing a larger submarine fleet, transferring a squadron of F-15s to Okinawa and establishing a radar station on the Yaeyama islands southwest of the main Okinawa chain.
Attempts to create closer military ties with South Korea, including exchanges and joint drills, follow similar agreements with Australia and suggest that the Japanese Defence Ministry is serious about building bilateral alliances under the US security umbrella.
But this realignment is complicated by external factors: China's own response, which as recent events show, could test Japan's nerve and capabilities; North Korea, which satellite imagery suggests is preparing for a third nuclear test; and Russia.
The Kuril Islands have become a diplomatic headache for Kan since Russian President Dmitry Medvedev decided to turn them into a nationalist sacred cow, or ‘inalienable part of Russia’, late last year. While conflict is less than unlikely, Russian defence officials have spent the past month talking up plans for upgraded air defence, the deployment of amphibious landing ships to the country’s Far East and the revitalisation of infantry forces on the islands.
Hardening Russian rhetoric suggests the best Kan can hope for is a reduction of tensions. But the prime minister may be justified in considering the bitter irony of his position: pilloried for an issue that encapsulates Japan's 60-year failure under the Liberal Democratic Party to deal with its World War II demons.
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PO3 Horsley
Truly interesting article. The real interesting part will be what role the US decides to play in a potential conflict between the two. The same can be said with the China-Taiwan conflict as well.
yang tsup
let just say for a minute that war broke up in the region, millions dead and every nations involved suffers economically.. Only the westerner and european will benefit from this foolish disagreement between asian races.
John Jie
I find all these comments totally irrelevant and irrational. China doesn’t have the naval or air power to attack any country other than those that are contiguous to China’s land mass. Therefore China-Japan and China-U.S military conflicts are out of the question. The only China -U.S. conflict that might arise is with respect to Taiwan. If Taiwan proclaims independence, China will definitely attack Taiwan and the U.S. may or may not choose to defend Taiwan. Although the U.S. obviously has the capability of attacking China, I doubt that they will ever even consider such a foolhardy venture with boots on Asia mainland again. There is very little for China and India to conflict over other than small parcels of worthless land at the Himalaya foothills.
PO3 Horsley
@ John Jie- And as far as China’s naval and air capability, it is steadily growing. Within the next two decades, it is very likely that China will have a naval force capable of supporting air assests. And this is a force that will be capable of projecting past its general area of operation. Should they choose to invade Taiwan, at this point they are definately capable. And with the debt we owe to China, it is very tough to say what side the US will take. A war with China, be it now or whenever is going to be very interesting.
Janman
The war is over. There will not be any conflict between China and Japan for at least another 50 years. So there is nothing to speculate. Diplomat, probably another neo-cons paper, is just trying to create something out of nothing so as to justify American hegemony around the world
EAM
So the author suggests Sino-Japanese conflict. Frank suggests Sino-Indian conflict. Leonard R talks of US- China conflict. Reading some of the other blogs, it appears that Asia is also full of other countries that are sparring for a fight. Can someone enlighten me as to which countries that are NOT destined to conflict -or are there none?
Most of the major powers have nukes – and even India and Pakistan have not fought a fully blown war since both acquired nukes. A little bit of common sense would not go amiss rather instead of wild comments about making war.
Frank
Relax.
There won’t be any war.
Japanese is fending for their own lives with China’s help. They won’t start a war. There is no reason for China to attack Japan because Japanese are one of the good customers.
USA is China’s THE best customer and borrower.
Chinese are smart enough not to attack their customers. Americans understand that drinking beers watching TV is much better choice than to get involved in another bloody war against an East Asia country. China is the largest East Asian country. East Asians will fight to the death. Americans won’t.
Indians are not reasonable people. They only respect the strong and powerful like their formal English masters. A small conflict with India is very possible.
However, I don’t think a full scale war between China and India is going to happen. Indians do not have guts to attack China despite of the manic proclamation. China will put up missile defense shield very soon. With limited missile that can reach China against a shield, Indians won’t dare to attack China.
China has no need to attack India either. Just providing support to India’s own poor would be more than enough.
vivek
frank,
you seem to live in a imaginary world, it is quite possible that you have lost all sense of reality and your cognitive devolution is complete. India wont dare attack china? Dont underestimate our might when compared to the chinese.
And please study history before making tall claims.
Min Kawata
Vivek,
Make sure everyone in India has at least a pair of shoes first before you talk of war with China. India is not even close to the level of mightness of Japan.
Leonard R.
In my opinion, China & Japan are not destined to be in conflict.
That has been the history for a few hundred years. It’s not necessarily
in the future.
The US and China are destined for war, IMO.
In fact, they are already at war. It’s just not a hot war yet.
But it will be. And it will come sooner rather than later.
Chinese are utterly ignorant of Western History.
But Westerners already see the shape of things to come.
Peter K
@ Leonard R, Why? Is is because America’s hell bent on weapon platforms? Or perhaps the hawks are too powerful. For me if America actually poured her resources into social structures and health reforms, she would become an instant ‘hit’ overnight. The world would once again look in envy. Alas due to greedy money makers, she’s nothing more than gun toters.
John Chan
Do you mean Chinese are utterly ignorant of the new version of western history written by the school of creative revisionist writing? And do you also mean that in the new version of western history, the revisionist historians have rewritten over the ugly western history of killing, drug trafficking, slaving trading, inhuman crimes ever committed in human history in the last 300 years by the West, and repackaged with democracy, human rights, free market that kind of wrapping?
John Chan
Do you know that world/western history is a compulsory course in high school years in China? Can we say the same that Chinese history is a compulsory course in high school years in the West? I just wonder where all these anti-China bloggers who are so ignorant about China came from? Do they learning China via the bigotry western tabloids? Or do they learn from the English edition of China history written by the creative revisionist history writing historians under the directions of anti-China machinery?
Also do you know that all Chinese high schools have to teach English as second language? How many high schools in the western world do they teach Chinese in its high schools?
“Chinese are utterly ignorant of Western History.” couldn’t be more true of telling the ignorance of the blogger himself.
John
John Chan wrote: ” I just wonder where all these anti-China bloggers who are so ignorant about China came from? Do they learning China via the bigotry western tabloids? Or do they learn from the English edition of China history written by the creative revisionist history writing historians under the directions of anti-China machinery?”
If this is how you think non Chinese are taught Chinese History, how sure can you be that Chinese students dont learn a similar western history?
I could do what you do and simply replace China and anti China for the west and anti west, but I am interested how you can be so certain that China’s education isn’t doing the same.
History is always written from the eye of the Victor or the Victim, neither are unbiased in how they percieve it. Its always been a mixture of both perceptions, though considering that most of your posts posit China as simply a victim of world affairs, I figure you will miss the above point as well.
John Chan
@John, Leonard R. made such provocative statement “Chinese are utterly ignorant of Western History.” Why didn’t you lecture Leonard R. making such irresponsible accusation out of thin air? Why didn’t you tell the agitator to back off this kind of vicious China bashing? How bias can you be?
You are the one missing the point, as long as you persist and blame our comments as whining, either you have read the revisionist version history about China or you are merely turning the pages of the history by motion.
That statement about bias view on China in West media stands true. I have read enough about those selective reporting, twisting truth and outright fabrication facts in the West media, otherwise we won’t have this hostile and dangerous political environment that put the peace and prosperity of the world in danger.
John
John Chan, The reason that I didn’t call Leonard on it is that Chinese commentators do seem show a remarkable lack of understanding of Western History, and until someone can show me a specific issue that the non Chinese have got completely wrong and that the Chinese have got exactly correct, then I have to assume Chinese arguments that Mongolia has always been a part of China, Tibet never was a soveriegn state, South China Sea was always part of China,seems to show a lack of understanding of non Chinese history.
I remember one Chinese Commentator making the claim on CCTV that European concerns about China are due to the Mongol invasion of the 1300s.
Did the fact that a Japanese imperialist nation attacking thier citizens in the 1930s-40, leave no concern in thier thoughts when they witness a China that militarily seems to be following a similar game plan if not attitudinal shift as the Japanese imperialists did?
To me, this example by the Chinese expert shows a lack of understanding of Western history. (recent history). If I seem to watch Chinese commentators on CCTV make statements that at the very least seem to misunderstand Western thoughts and how they came about, then am I not in the same position you are in?
Looking at comments and wondering how they came about, if not by lack of educaton about history?
Also if it is true that the CCP limits the amount of information about current and past events that its citizens can access, then how can they truly be educated if they are reading from one page, when the rest of the world can access two pages?
John Chan
@John, you are contradicting yourself. Leonard R made a false statement, I pointed out his fallacy. You said Leonard R’s statement was not a fabrication of fact by supporting it with your own false statements. Are you trying to prove two wrongs make a right? You cannot use false statements to support another false statement as truth, two false statements do not add up to a truth. Although Joseph Goebbels tried to prove it might work, and it is a common practise used by the anti-China theorists to smear China, but human being has conscious and a sense of right and wrong, this trick does not work in the world of honesty and justice.
John, “westerners are utterly ignorant of China, Chinese and Chinese history” does not give Leonard R the right to say something false in his statement as “Chinese are utterly ignorant of Western History,” just like “millions of Chinese know English”, it does not mean Leonard R and you can say “millions of westerners know Chinese.” In fact I wish it could be true, then we won’t have so many ignorant anti-China bigots bashing China out of ignorance, confusion, fear, jealous, and resentment.
The predatory behaviour of the West and its lackeys does not match the high human ideals (democracy, human rights, equality, prosperity, justice and liberty) they are talking about. Law of Inverse Relevance seems what the West is practising.
Chinese talk about the modern western history as it is, but the West does not like their ugly past raised time and again to smear their gentlemen like image, so the best tactic to divert attention is to “confuse the issue” by labelling Chinese lack of education on western history. BTW Mongolia, Tibet and South China Sea are in Asia, they have nothing to with the depth of knowing western history, your argument is fallacy and specious.
Here are some of the references to show you that Mongolia and Tibet are integral part of China, and more than one million square miles of China land under foreign occupation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Qing_china.jpgh
http://www.asian-studies.org/eaa/Crossley-13-2.pdf
http://bigthink.com/ideas/21273
Please do some work yourself, it is not fair for others to do the work for you in order to prove you are making up story through the thin air.
John
John Chan wrote: “You said Leonard R’s statement was not a fabrication of fact by supporting it with your own false statements”
I would like to know how what I said was a false statement, I did hear them say it; I dont need to make stuff up, there’s enough info out there if you listen.
CCTV is a real eye opener on thier dialouge show, but regardless ‘whatever’, I can be bothered anymore discussing the issue with you. You believe what you believe and I will do the same.
Just a point though, you may want to lay off wikipedia as a source, its not allowed as a reference in assignments as the information is too easily changed to suit what people believe.
Plus when you discuss China, you mean all the times throughout history, whereas China for me is simply the CCP as it stands today, created in 1949.
Therefore for me, Mongolia is not part of China, whereas inner mongolia may be, but if the inner were given the right to secede from Han China, then would they? I don’t know, though I guess we will never know until they are given a choice.
Though whatever.
John Chan
@John, here is the whole point, Chinese regards CCP is a regime of China, China is an entity from the beginning of known Chinese activities to present and into the future. The anti-China camp regards CCP is China, and attack China means attack CCP, because their ignorance they can’t distinguish between China and CCP.
Here is the fundamental difference between Chinese and the anti-China camp about the relevance of the past to the present. The anti-China camp wants to use as short as possible in the past to relevant to the present, because their past is not presentable, so it is to their advantage to use shortest possible past in any discussion of current issues. Therefore the westerners like to say “bygone is bygone, past has nothing to with the present” so they can swipe the slate clean in broad stroke, and start exploiting other people all over without any conscious burden.
Chinese on the other hand look the whole human history as continuum, so we can have best possibility to avoid past mistakes and repeat past success. CCP is one regime in China, if it can do China good, it is OK, if it cannot do China good, and it will be overthrown. Whether CCP is good or bad, it is up to the Chinese to decide, it is none of any foreigner’s business. If any foreigner tries to do otherwise, it is their attempt to repeat the era of unequal treaties, it is their attempt to break China up and enslave Chinese again. Their hideous attempt must be exposed and defeated.
Here is anther principle John you must learn, “nobody can monopolize truth.” Anybody tries to monopolize truth is a hegemony that wants to enslave others on the moral high ground. If you insist you have the whole truth, then you are monopolizing truth in the eyes of the people who have different opinion than yours. Until you can open your mind and look at issues from other side point of view, you are lying without conscious.
If you insist you way of thinking, we fail to communicate, we are merely repeating each other own position like a pair parallel lines. Cold war is a thing of past, reviving it to serve your interest is an irresponsible human activity.
Leonard R statement is false and your statements are false too, even worst you refuse to accept historical documents as evidence.
John
Its not a refusal to accept historical documents as evidence as it is an unwillingness to try to live the past today.
Plus you are only using history as it suits your arguments, when it doesn’t then you claim the area that is controlled by the Qing Empire at its height as being Chinese territory.
If I were to use the British Empire at its height to say that its territory is always British, would you agree?
This would include parts of Shanghai, Hong Kong, etc.
See the argument is that we are looking at two different issues, and you are only using yours because it suits you, not because its correct.
Though thats neither here nor there.
John Chan
@John, as the spirit of international law says it is your sovergnty only if you can maintain it. There are more than one million square miles of China’s ancestor land is under foreign occupation. China only can claim sovergnty on those lands when China has the means to maintain authority over them.
British definitely will use the ex-British Empire territory as basis to reclaim those lost lands as a legitimate and legal excuse if British has the means to reoccupy those lands again, including part of Shanghai, HK, etc.
If India, Pakistan, and other ex-British colonies claim British Isles as their territory based on the historical fact when they have the means to occupy it, that occupation is certainly legitimate in the spirit of international law.
When nations try to make a claim on a territory in an international institution, such as UN, the nation presenting the stronger historical evidence wins the claim. British’s claim on part of Shanghai, and HK will lose the claim to China, because China has stronger ownership evidence than the British.
In the international law, reality always trumps argument and strong always trumps weak, that’s why weak nation always loss and such injustice is over historical books. For example when China was weak, Russia lost war to Japan in the fight over the interest of Manchuria, Russia transfer all its control of Manchuria to Japan without China’s consent and participation, and all imperial powers and international bodies approved it as legitimate. It’s also the case in the Whiteman’s claim on America over native Indian in terms of ownership of the land, although the Whiteman are intruders; Whiteman became legitimate and legal owners, they can evict native Indian as they see fit.
As you said “Though that’s neither here nor there.” Then I just wonder why so many people shouting and yelling when China makes a legitimate claim on the South China Sea as “core interest” based on the historical facts. Is it because they know China’s claim is legitimate, and they cannot win the claim either by argument or by force? Such loud noise is also heard to other China claimed lands.
It seems you are interpreting history at your own convenience, when it doesn’t suit you, you say whatever China’s argument is not valid with some specious excuses.
John
John Chan, I feel we must agree to disagree.
You can live with an ethnonationalist mindset, I wish to leave nationalism back in the 19th Century and move onto a global community, so will support those ideas that lead to less nationalism and ethnocentrism.
In regards to the South China Sea, there is no evidence that China controlled those areas in the past, though if you can show me historical facts that China controlled Mischief Reef in the the Qing Dynasty then I will look at it, though it seems that its simply an argument that force majure is the only reason for it.
Personally, I would warn you that history has shown us that might makes right arguments inevitably lead to conflict. If you are speaking for the Chinese people then all I can say, is its a pity that they must continue to follow the proverb that those who forget history are doomed to repeat it.
John Chan
@John, indeed, for the moment we must agree to disagree. No hegemony has ever given up dominance by itself. The imperialist USA and its allies are no exception. They treat the aspiration of the suppressed for equality and self-determination as threat, and do their utmost best to crash the voice for freedom and justice.
It is true “that history has shown us that might makes right arguments inevitably lead to conflict. It’s a pity that the imperial US and its lackeys must continue to follow the proverb that those who forget history are doomed to repeat it.” The collapse of corrupted and decadent Roman Empire is their fate to end.
Your warning is loud an clear, China has been warned many many times with threats, and big guns just like you did, China had paid indemnity, humiliation, territory, and millions of lives when China did not heed the warning to the liking the West and Japan. The imperial West and Japan is warning China again. Is it the harbinger of the evil empire to strike again?
China has been struggling against the West exploitation and suppression for more than 150 years, it is time for China to stand up to shake off that imperial yoke and keep its independence with all means.
Bogart X.
"As you said “Though that’s neither here nor there.” Then I just wonder why so many people shouting and yelling when China makes a legitimate claim on the South China Sea as “core interest” based on the historical facts. Is it because they know China’s claim is legitimate, and they cannot win the claim either by argument or by force? Such loud noise is also heard to other China claimed lands."
John Chan if the Chinese' claims really are legitimate as you say then they would be willing to take it to UNCLOS, in which China is also a signatory of, as the other claimant nations suggested. Instead China wants bilateral talks with the concerned nations where China undoubtedly has huge advantage.
"In the international law, reality always trumps argument and strong always trumps weak, that’s why weak nation always loss and such injustice is over historical books. For example when China was weak…"
And that's what China is currently doing, pushing around the weaker countries. You can't even define accurately the boundaries of your claim to the SCS. Who knows how far your claim goes? The nine-dashed line claim only states here, there, and there, it's so vague that your own Chinese officials can't even exactly pin-point where it is. Why? Because the truth is, it is as far as they can push those countries, even up to the shores if they can. Surely, greed knows no bounds.
You see if Britain claims now its lost territories they would only be asking for war. And that is what China is doing right now. As you said, it is only legitimate if you have the means to occupy it. And do you think the affected countries would outright give it to China? The way China is progressing really is leading itself to destruction.
Taro Ishihara Jr.
@ Bogart X,
Hello, anybody home? The 2008 worldwide financial tsunami and the Arab Spring which follows, the troubles in Egypt, Syria and Libya, the South Sea conflict, the China-Japan isalnd conflict, the North Korea crisis, Gordon Chang's forever extended prediction of China's Collapse, the QE 1, 2,3,4, and QE unlimited, and the year 2013 mass money printing of Japan, etc., are all staged and directed by the big boss United States. Are you ignorant or just lacks of common sense?
On the other hand, the way Japan is progressing really is leading itself to destruction, just contrary to your comments on China. Please have a deeper look of Japan's history especially before and during the World War II. Japan is a self destructive breed, not China.
FixYourProblemFirst
The West are more ignorant than China, especially the United States.
You got some point that war is already going on in some way. Future war may not necessarily need to be millitary only. US can alway use the western media gangs to keep defaming rivals like China and keep shifting the focus from US's mistakes and failures to China. She did it already to Iraq already by telling big lie on destructive weaspon, thouh still need some millitary actions.
US turned the whole world upside down in 2008 with her wall street smart heads. Then finish off many Middle East governments by the resulting financial mess and her ongoing media manipulation. Look at Egypt, Syria, and Libya. Now both US and Japan start another project of unlimited mass money printing to fight back the shirts and pants they already lost at the expense of the whole world's economy stability.
War with China?
US has to finish her civil war at the Capitol Hill first, cure her cancer of health care system first, spend more time on the American kids' and tennage's mental problems first, stop printing money and let the oil price go down first, find solution to the ever happening everywhere gun shootings first, create more real jobs first, fix her welfare system first, fix her education failures first, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, hey, this list will go on forever. You still expect a war first?
United States should look herself at the mirror first.
salsa
When the Russian grab Kuril Island from the Japanese after second world war they cry foul but the Japanese can’t seem to understand why the Chinese who have legitimate claim on Sinkaku want it back.
Frank
“China, Japan Fated for Conflict?”
No. They won’t. They are not Indians.
John
John Vhan wrote:”Of course Japan always has the option to learn a lesson what the US found out the hard way in South China Sea.”
What was that?
That Chinese fighter pilots dont fly so well after hitting bigger planes, or that you cant trust China to follow international laws when it doesn’t benefit them?
Or that Chinese PLAN like to harass others and then play the “oh its me that is the victim”?
Or maybe its the “trust China to act responsibly and see them appear to do anything but”, so what lesson did the USA learn the hard way?
Or are you infact reading from the pre written news article that China intends to publish after they start another issue there?
Marty Jacobs
Let’s be honest here. You can’t accuse China of infringing when the US was breaking international law in the first place by spying on China. They got caught, there were consequences. China’s reaction was entirely predictable, and would have been the same in any country.
Yes, every country (especially the Chinese!) engages in espionage. But you’re naive or ignorant to expect a country to respond favorably towards foreign spies caught in the act. Remember what the US did to the Rosenbergs?
GivemeabreakJohn
John,
Please don't use that laughing ball head in this blog. It makes yourself silly and out of the level with all other bloggers.
I almost forget to tell you and John Chan blogging should be more fun than forever reading you gentlemen's eye stressful debate here.
John Chan
If Japan is smart Japan should tune down its public nationalistic posture, so the government won’t get into a situation that it needs to back down into a political crisis at home; because internet sites are reporting that China has started its next phase of war ship building boom, at 5 new destroyers are going to join the service soon, and next batch is progressing in the docks. Heavier armed marine enforcement ships are also being added.
Of course Japan always has the option to learn a lesson what the US found out the hard way in South China Sea.
yang zi
let’s not get carried away with this.
If US is following law flying a spy plane 30 miles off Chinese coast, China is also following the law when it flies 70 miles along Diaoyu island, even if that island belongs to Japan (which is not).
that’s the end of it. this has nothing to do with 5 ships China is building.
BTW, Chinese and Japanese leaders are smart enough to control the tension. no worries.
John
Yang Zi wrote: “China is also following the law when it flies 70 miles along Diaoyu island, even if that island belongs to Japan (which is not). “‘
Can you explain why China has rights to to the Senkakus?
Every time that I hear the argument. They say that “China has controlled the islands since ancient times”.
What is this ancient times that I hear of? What year did China settle the island?
When did they position troops on the island?
When did Japan take possesion? When did the CCP China become a nation?
Listen, saying that you control a place does not make it so.
MICHAEL
Most people in the world don’t like the Japanese, as some of them never admit their criminal behaviour to the other nations during the Second World War.It is very dangerous for the world if Japan get more wapons. The U.S.A.should supervise and control the Japan for the peace of the world.
tony
its simple, diaoyu island was part of china before the ww2 and japanese took over it during the ww2. After Japan was defeated, the US basically took the island as its military base. When the US retrieved from the island, they simply gave Japan the power to rule the island, but according to the treaty Japan signed after its defeats, Japan needs to return all the territories that didnt belong to them back, which should include the diaoyu island. So all of these conflicts between China and Japan, (including Korea and Japan) are caused by the US. Scumbags..