Writing at World Politics Review, my NWC colleague Nikolas Gvosdev urges the United States to think ahead in case China establishes a global presence, but to do so without succumbing to the kind of action-reaction dynamic that typified Cold War competition. Not every Chinese move warrants an American reply. This is sound advice.
Nick mentions Wen Jiabao’s much-discussed stopover in the Azore Islands, which could represent the prelude to a Chinese naval presence in the Atlantic. As the U.S. Air Force radically scales back its presence in the islands, Beijing could fill the void.
Maybe. There’s no ruling out unwise policy. China has blundered repeatedly in the East China and South China seas over the past few years, creating needless problems for itself. But on the positive side of the ledger, its leadership has been admirably circumspect about taking on extraregional commitments. Its reach has not exceeded its military grasp. Apart from the counterpiracy mission in the Gulf of Aden, it has kept its forces concentrated in East Asian waters and China proper.
But suppose Beijing does multiply its out-of-area commitments. Rather than fret about an extraregional China, I say bring it on.
The more burdens Beijing shoulders outside the Far East, the more it must disperse finite physical power—diluting the military assets it can apply to any given contingency without leaving commitments elsewhere uncovered. It will have less military might to spare for adventures like grabbing parts of Southeast Asian states’ exclusive economic zones or mounting a challenge to the forward American presence in the Western Pacific.
China, it seems, may soon discover the joys of juggling competing demands on scarce resources and policy energy. Asia is a far less permissive setting than the Americas. Consequently, Beijing may also discover that multitasking is even harder for a global power that inhabits a tough neighborhood, has abundant unfinished business close to home, and has courted few partners and allies to help advance its interests.
Strategic thinkers have struggled with questions of concentration and dispersal since time immemorial. Carl von Clausewitz counsels that the best policy is to be very strong, both in general and at the decisive time and place. Easier said than done. Setting priorities becomes nightmarish when national interests are at stake in many places at the same time.
Welcome to the club, China.
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China will be crushed. Your leaders shall kowtow to the Wast. Once again you shall be humiliated. Death to the CCP and the PLA. We hold you in contempt.
slim
The worst actors in the Western hemisphere are China's best friends in the region, so it is hard to see this as helpful.
Bankotsu
" worst actors in the Western hemisphere"
Like the U.S?
John LaChance
Want to stop PLA aggression? It's easy really. They're looking outwards right now, looking to expand. Make them look inwards. Start a "Free Tibet" rally. Support a Tibetan underground of Freedom Fighters. Make a movie about some heroic Tibetan fighting the communist take-over of his country. Then, make sure every Tibetan sees that movie. Make China the enemy with a rallying cry. Make China focus its gunsights inward again, as it begins to break apart one new country at a time.
Make the Uighurs in Xinjiang start seeing themselves as oppressed by the invading Han Chinese, who are slowly making them a minority in their own ethnic sphere. Make Inner Mongolia see its future better aligned with Outer Mongolia which, after all, is a more natural alignment for these ethnically identical peoples. Yes, make China realize that it shouldn't be concentrating on expanding outwards when it's falling apart.
After all that, make the Southeastern and Eastern coasts realize they're better off without these poor provinces sucking up their wealth in Beijing's re-distribution schemes. Rich people won't object too much, as long as they secure contractual rights to resources in those provinces. Then break up the coast into three or more separate countries by fostering competition between them based on historical imperatives tied to their three major rivers.
Yes, you can stop China from its expansionist ideology by breaking it apart into manageable entities. Start with Tibet. Give Tibetans a hero besides the Dalai Lama. Not peace but war.
Frank
If pushed, China can solve the Uighur and Tibetan problems easily.
Uighur and Tibetan can be relocated to have better lives in China’s large cities, just like Mongols. There are less Tibetans than the whole city of Hong Kong. There are 500 cities with more than 1 million people in China.
It is better not to push China to the limit.
Oldertimer
Why did the auther making such sensational conjecture/speculation?
Have you Mr. Holmes run out of subjects to write about?
Chinese Atlantic & Pacific?
The US and the Eu will collapse under its own weight of debts and other mismanagement and short-termism policies for the last sixty years. Now, the economic equivalent of the grim reaper is knocking to collect. Red star in the Atlantic is just a matter of showing the flag. Afterall the Atlantic and the Americas were discovered by the Ming Chinese but like all things originally Chinese highly important and significant, the Western governments hushes it up and suppresses all evidence and information of this, the biggest and grossest violation of intellectual copyright in the world. The Americas should had been called “Fu Sang”, not “America”.
Bankotsu
U.S is sending at least 6 aircraft carrier battle groups to western pacific, in order to have a 2 to 1 advantage, I think China should have at least 12 aircraft carrier groups.
tysmwest
I think we should encourage China to pick up a role in the world of foreign aid and humantarian assistance. Let them be the first to rush in and help out….after all they got the money…..and let them feel the ire of all the piss pot third world countries for not doing "their fair share"
European Gimme
Portegul, a NATO member, is whining because the U.S. wants to close a joint base in the Azores. Somehow, an internal Porteguese unemployment problem is the U.S.'s to solve like a global nanny rather than Portegul. Now, like a child having a tantrum, Portegul is holding it's breath until blue and whining it will rent the facility to China if mommy U.S. doesn't pay for Portegul's unemployment problems.
A perfect example of why the U.S. needs to pull out of NATO until the spoiled European "allies" agree to pay equal funds and military. After 60 years of subsidizing European defense, the U.S. needs to say "enough" and "grow up".
joblo
What does it matter since it's China that's already paying by financing the US budget deficit.
Stefan Stackhouse
I could see them someday soon sending a fleet around the world on a goodwill tour, just like Teddy Roosevelt did with the Great White Fleet in 1908-9. No harm in that.
Chris
China would need mamoth maritime power projection capabilities to sustain and gain advantage from far flung bases in the Atlantic. While not impossible… it is hard to imagine before the end of this century.