Yesterday Japan’s Air Self-Defense Force scrambled F-15 Eagle fighter jets and an E-2C airborne early-warning aircraft after a Japan Coast Guard ship spotted a Chinese plane near the Senkaku/Diaoyu archipelago. China’s State Oceanic Administration described the flight of its B-3837 patrol plane as part of air-sea operations around the islands. And indeed, such missions may become a regular feature of the Senkakus dispute.
China’s small-stick diplomacy, it appears, has taken on an aviation component. Beijing wants to show that it — not Tokyo — administers the contested real estate effectively. There are advantages to routine flights. Aircraft can operate over the waters around the archipelago, much as ships from China’s nonmilitary sea services have for months. Planes can also overfly the Senkakus directly, whereas landing personnel on the islets could trigger a conflict. That’s a low-risk way to make a high-impact statement. In effect Beijing can dare Tokyo to do something about it.
Aloft as at sea, showing the Chinese flag in Chinese-claimed waters and skies cultivates the image of normalcy. Military forces fight for disputed objects; the outcome is often in doubt or reversible. By contrast, policing the skies is a prerogative, and indeed the duty, of a sovereign state. Portraying itself as the rightful sovereign over the Senkakus and the adjoining seas and airspace is precisely the point for Beijing. That’s why police services like the State Oceanic Administration are the face of Chinese policy in the Senkakus, at Scarborough Shoal, and in other territorial controversies.
In operational terms, how does air power fit into China’s toolkit for the island dispute? Aerial patrols are far from the ideal implement for the job. The late Admiral J. C. Wylie helps explain why. Wylie faults air-power proponents for conflating the power to destroy from the air with the capacity to control territory and people. Air forces, he writes, can rain destruction from the sky. But they cannot loiter on station indefinitely to exercise control. To use a law-enforcement simile, planes and helicopters are like police cruisers roaming the streets — except that, unlike police cars, they can’t stop for long, lest they crash. Their presence is episodic.
For Wylie the man with a gun standing at a key spot on the map is the true arbiter of control. Eighty percent of life is showing up, and staying. Like the cop walking his beat, the soldier, marine, or policeman toting a gun can mount a constant physical presence, and thereby maintain order and suppress lawlessness. Sea power occupies the middle ground between a ground presence and the intermittent presence supplied by air cover. While their endurance is finite and the sea areas they monitor vast, ships can remain on scene for a long time. They can dawdle on the high seas to show the flag and perform police duty.
What does this disquisition mean for the Senkakus impasse? Ships will doubtless remain around the islets to put substance into China’s maritime claims. I doubt Beijing will land law-enforcement personnel, let alone troops, in the Senkakus. The man holding a gun would have to fight his way ashore, perhaps touching off a clash entailing vast and unforeseeable consequences. And airplanes? One imagines Japanese mariners will see them overhead more and more often. Buzzing the islands does little to enforce China’s control there. But it could well advance Beijing’s messaging campaign — helping it consolidate its image as their legitimate ruler.

JohnX
Its probably in Japans interests to give China 3 warnings. The first two can be simply responding to the incursions with thier fighters to let them know the intrusions will be countered.
The third should be the shooting down of the aircraft. The pilots are obviously transporting narcotics and thus a target.
China may have a dispute but it will only have control if Japan allows it too. The Global Times states that any Chinese intrusion into the area without a harsh response is an acceptance of Chinese claims and ownership.
Thus, a harsh response is understood as acceptable.
1913intel
Rather than just look at this air incident, it might be more helpful to look at it in context. This air incident over the Senkaku Islands represents a continuation of Chinese escalation over the last several years concerning the South China Sea and East China Sea. Recently, China announced that it will reserve the right to start searching ships in the South China Sea. Not hard to figure out that in a few years China will restrict US military and intelligence vessels in its surrounding seas. Today a conservative hawk was elected Japan's leader.
Given this constant escalation of tension, and the real potential for more escalation, the future is not looking bright.
Look at how China fights wars:
Here are six of the 1962 principles China replicated in its subsequent aggressions:
(1) take the adversary by surprise to maximize political and psychological shock;
(2) strike only when the international and regional timing is opportune;
(3) hit as fast and as hard as possible by unleashing “human wave” assaults;
(4) be willing to take military gambles;
(5) mask offense as defense;
(6) wage war with the political objective to “teach a lesson” — an aim publicly acknowledged by Beijing in the 1962 and 1979 attacks.
This suggests that we shouldn't worry about an accidental war. Instead, we should worry about a non-accidental war started ala Pearl Harbor style.
Jacques de Goldfiem
I discovered The Diplomat few months ago and I use it very often in my teaching.
On this topic see also
http://www.asiaobserver.org/category/china-hongkong-taiwan/china/china-territorial-claims
Liang1a
Chinese airplane entered the airspace of Diaoyu Islands around 10 AM. Japanese fighters did not arrive over Diaoyu Island until around 11 AM or about 1 hour later. This shows the Japanese radars are not efficient. This also calls into question the fighting ability of the Japanese air force. It is time for China to really test the Japanese air force and engage in a real fight. My prediction is that 8 Chinese J-10 will shoot down all 8 Japanese F-15 while losing maybe 3 of its own fighters.
Thomas
Quite agree with you, Lang1a. It's time to test the Japanese air force's readiness. Just send your Chinese 'J10s' & your toy ships out there. Sadly, the only way for Japan to show its determination against China's hubris & aggressiveness is to shoot down or sink all Chinese fighters & warships daring to enter its territory. I think the Japanese have already elected their way of response to those Chinese provocations in their recent election. So, the world should respect & honor all their decisions.
ACT
@ Liang1a, Thomas,
you're missing one point; unlike the U.S and unlike the PRC, Japanese fighters are not kept on high alert status, and thus do not have the ability to take-off quickly. Also consider the distance from the nearest Japanese airbase. So, you have to factor in fueling, pre-flight checks, loading of weapons, etc. That explains the 1 hour lag, which is actually pretty timely for an air-force based that far away, as i understand it.
Brrrrr
How silly will the Chinese government feel if and when it’s discovered the Japanese already have tunnel infrastructure on the islands, and staff who patrol the islands surreptitiously? Who has demonstrated effective control in that situation? LOL all the flyovers and ship patrols will have been for naught.
John LaChance
How so true.
Matt
I would anticipate China will be attempting to land forces on the islands before long. They have proven they will keep escalating. Japan should land forces first. It would be very symbolic and pose practical limitations on China's strategy. Japan needs to get ahead of the curve. Or wait for China to do it and be prepared to respond with violence. The big question I don't believe we know is what will China do when faced with violence. We already know what they will do when faced with talk. The Russians who fired on those fishing boats did not suffer any consequences. If you knew for a fact you could walk into a bank and take their money without them doing anyting why wouldn't you do it? China has been taught they can take what they like so they are doing just that. Just like a bully before the victim punches him in the nose. China's tone will change dramatically if humbled. That would be good for all including China in the long run.
John Chan
@Matt,
I beg the difference, but sending China’s civil marine patrol unit to remove all garbage left behind by the aliens that is polluting the pristine environment of Daioyu Islands is a possibility.
The potent thing for the Japanese to do is to sit down with Chinese and negotiate a long term settlement about the status of Ryukyu archipelago.
John LaChance
Well said.